Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are becoming a significant factor in the pricing of the U.S. equity market, with expectations of a bull market rising among investors [1][2] - Following comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell regarding high stock indices, major U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average averaging a drop of 79 basis points over three trading days [1] - The Fed's monetary policy challenges are highlighted by the potential for a declining dollar index if interest rate cut expectations are reinforced, which could lead to reduced capital inflows into the U.S. and subsequent economic downturns [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. government's increasing debt, which exceeds 123% of GDP, complicates the Fed's ability to manage monetary policy effectively while addressing inflation concerns [3] - The Fed's strategy may involve small adjustments to interest rates to gauge market reactions, balancing the need for economic growth against inflation control [3][4] - The challenge for the Fed lies in preventing a consensus on market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, which could lead to frequent re-pricing of these expectations [4]

具体来看，包括汽油、电在内的能源价格指数环比增长0.8%；食品价格环比增长0.5%。8月消费者支出 环比增长0.6%；8月个人收入环比增长0.4%；8月个人储蓄率为4.6%。消费者支出和收入数据均好于市 场预期。 美媒分析认为，好于预期的消费者支出数据显示美国消费者消费需求依然旺盛，对美国经济而言是"好 消息"。经济学家认为，当月通胀虽小幅"升温"，但预计不会影响美联储降息步伐。 美联储17日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4%至4.25%之间的水平。这是美联储时隔9 个月重启降息。美联储公布的经济预测概要显示，今年可能还将降息两次。(完) PCE是衡量美国民间消费通胀的关键指标，也是美联储较为青睐的衡量通胀水平的指标。 美国商务部当天公布数据显示，剔除食品和能源价格后，美国8月核心PCE价格指数环比上涨0.2%，同 比上涨2.9%，同比增幅与7月数据持平，符合市场预期。 中新社华盛顿9月26日电 (记者 沙晗汀)美国商务部当地时间26日公布数据显示，美国8月个人消费支出 (PCE)价格指数环比上涨0.3%，同比增长2.7%，同比增幅较7月数据高出0.1个百分点，显示通胀小幅"升 温"。 ...

来源：21世纪经济报道 肖宇（中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员） 整体来看，为了平衡经济增长的目标，接下来美国联邦基金利率（银行间的隔夜拆借利率）走低已经是 大概率事件。但如何避免市场形成单边的一致性预期，并且避免这种预期被频繁定价，这或许是摆在美 联储面前的最大挑战。 所以引导预期，或许是鲍威尔此番言论背后的深意。毕竟在美国的债务危机之下，美联储被动配合白宫 降息已经成为市场普遍共识。尤其是令美国政府举债上限名存实亡的"大而美法案"，其影响效应将逐渐 在2026财年兑现，美元资产的价值锚定效应日渐丧失。在这种背景下，如果美元持续降息，那么全球投 资者抛售美元资产或将成为避险本能下的占优策略。虽然距离离任只有8个月，但这显然不是鲍威尔愿 意看到的结局。由此，在力所能及的范围内影响市场对美联储接下来降息预期幅度和频次的判断，避免 市场形成一致性的单边预期，大概率是鲍威尔的初衷。 此外，美联储或许也是想向市场释放一个信号，那就是此次降息虽然是"情非得已"，但美联储不会妥 协。毕竟经济数据具有滞后性，所以关税推高通胀的出现都只是时间问题。如果遏制通胀的果实因为关 税而功亏一篑，那么美联储将如何向民众解释" ...

肖宇（中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员） 在美联储降息靴子正式落地，以及点阵图显示年底还有两次降息的背景下，充裕的流动性正日渐成为美国权益市场定价的决定性因素，市 场普遍预计美股牛市可期并情绪高涨。 但当地时间9月23日，美联储主席鲍威尔对美国股市股指偏高的言论，为这种预期泼了一盆冷水。在鲍威尔表态后，美国主要股指随即全 线下挫。截至9月25日收盘，标普500、纳斯达克和道琼斯工业指数连续三个交易日下跌，三大股指平均跌去了79个基点，美股牛市预期遭 受重创。 从全球资本流动的视角出发，或许可以理解当前美联储货币政策的难处以及鲍威尔的用意。因为如果一旦接下来美联储降息的预期得到强 化，那么美元指数下跌将不可避免。在多米诺骨牌影响效应下，全球资本向美国本土回流的动力会进一步减弱，也由此带来投资的下降和 经济的衰退，叠加美国政府关税政策的影响，那么自然利率的寻找过程将会更加复杂，甚至变成难以触碰的空中楼阁。 所以引导预期，或许是鲍威尔此番言论背后的深意。毕竟在美国的债务危机之下，美联储被动配合白宫降息已经成为市场普遍共识。尤其 是令美国政府举债上限名存实亡的"大而美法案"，其影响效应将逐渐在2026财年兑 ...

芝加哥商品交易所对冲研投团队认为，当前美国劳动力市场持续疲软，美联储降息预期仍存，无论从哪 条路径来看，金价依然存在较好的上行驱动，美元信用的长期逻辑支撑金价上行。 其次，俄乌冲突、中东加沙等地缘政治局势依然摇摆不定，这种持续的紧张感促使投资者将资金投入黄 金这一传统的"避险资产"，其保值和避险属性显得尤为珍贵。 OANDA资深市场分析师Kelvin Wong表示，短期金价趋势仍维持看涨。澳新银行在一份报告中表示，经 济增长放缓、通胀上升、地缘政治格局变化以及美元走软，将使黄金投资需求保持强劲。 来源：市场资讯 国际金价延续涨势，周二收于每盎司3800美元整数关口上方，再创收盘历史新高。截至收盘，纽约商品 交易所12月黄金期价收于每盎司3815.7美元，涨幅为1.08%。 9月份以来，国际金价屡创新高，伦敦金现货价格接连突破3500美元/盎司、3600美元/盎司、3700美元/ 盎司等关键点位。与9月1日3447.50美元/盎司的开盘价相比，伦敦金现货价格月内已上涨近8%。 就在上周，备受市场关注的美联储降息25个基点"靴子落地"。在市场前期预期交易相对充分情况下，金 价短暂出现小幅回调后，9月19日旋即恢复 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Performance - The Shanghai gold futures contract is currently priced at 844.54 CNY per gram, reflecting a 1.78% increase [1] - The opening price for the day was 831.02 CNY per gram, with a high of 844.76 CNY and a low of 829.86 CNY [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic News - The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims for the week ending September 13 were 231,000, lower than the expected 240,000, with the previous value revised from 263,000 to 264,000 [2] - The Bank of England maintained its policy rate at 4.00%, aligning with market expectations, leading traders to increase bets on easing, anticipating a total rate cut of 45 basis points by the end of 2026 [2] - Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities reached a record high of 9.159 trillion USD in July, with significant increases from Japan and the UK, while China's holdings fell to 730.7 billion USD, the lowest since December 2008 [2] - U.S. President Trump indicated that an agreement with China regarding the ownership transfer of TikTok to U.S. companies is imminent, although the deadline for divestiture may be extended [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September, the precious metals market did not experience a significant uptrend, as the positive market sentiment had already been priced in [3] - There is a possibility of profit-taking in the short term, with expectations of further 25 basis point cuts in the upcoming meetings in October and December, providing strong support for precious metals [3] - The upcoming release of important data, including August's PCE, may influence market expectations regarding the Fed's future monetary policy, leading to potential volatility in the gold market [3] - Global financial markets, including the Chinese stock market, are experiencing significant short-term fluctuations, which may alter market risk preferences; if stock markets adjust, gold prices may remain strong [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25% on September 17, marking the first rate cut during Trump's second presidential term [1][3] - Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve for rate cuts, advocating for a 0.5% reduction before the recent meeting [3][6] - The Federal Reserve's members anticipate two more rate cuts in 2025 and one in 2026, each by 0.25% [3][6] Group 2 - Trump is focused on gaining control over the Federal Reserve Board, currently holding three out of twelve voting seats, aiming to secure a majority [6][7] - If Trump successfully removes Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board, he could appoint another member, further consolidating his influence [6][7] - Control over the Federal Reserve Board would allow Trump to influence the selection of the twelve regional bank presidents, potentially reshaping monetary policy [7][8] Group 3 - The current economic landscape shows a stark divide, with the top 10% of income earners benefiting from rising asset values, while the bottom 90% face inflationary pressures [8][9] - The reduction in illegal immigrant labor due to Trump's policies is contributing to rising prices in essential goods and services [9][11] - Upcoming healthcare policy changes and rising insurance costs are expected to further drive inflation [11][12] Group 4 - The anticipated monetary easing could exacerbate wealth inequality in the U.S., with potential political repercussions as the 2026 midterm elections approach [12][13] - Trump's strategies may include redirecting internal conflicts outward, potentially leading to increased political tensions and international crises [12][13]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the policy interest rate by 25 basis points in September 2025, bringing the target range to 4%-4.25%[4] - The market had anticipated a 25 basis point cut with a probability of 96.1% prior to the meeting[7] - This marks a total of 125 basis points cut in the current cycle, with four reductions since the beginning of the cycle[16] Group 2: Divergence in Dot Plot - The dot plot indicates a widening divergence among committee members regarding future rate cuts, with 9 members supporting 2 more cuts this year, while 6 members believe there should be no further cuts[8] - One member suggested a reduction to below 3%, implying a need for cuts exceeding 50 basis points in the next two meetings[8] - The voting showed one dissenting vote, with Stephen I. Miran advocating for a 50 basis point cut instead of 25[28] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Fed slightly raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to a median of 1.6% while maintaining the unemployment rate at 4.5%[9] - Inflation expectations for 2026 were slightly adjusted upward, with the Fed showing more tolerance for deviations from the 2% inflation target[9] - The Fed's statement highlighted a weakening job market as a significant reason for the rate cut, reflecting concerns over employment risks[10] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the Dow Jones increased by 0.57%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.1% and 0.33%, respectively[4] - Short-term Treasury yields declined, with the 3-month yield dropping by 2 basis points[30] - The dollar index showed volatility, initially falling before rebounding by the close of trading[30]

Core Viewpoint - Prudential expects the Federal Reserve to implement two interest rate cuts within the next six months before a new administration takes over [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Prudential's fixed income head, Kenneth Orchard, indicates that the market has a more aggressive outlook on the number of rate cuts, leading to expectations of higher short- and medium-term U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The Federal Reserve would need to lower rates to significantly below 3% to see a decline in the front and middle of the yield curve, as the market has already priced in multiple rate cuts [1] Group 2: Inflation Outlook - Prudential anticipates that U.S. inflation will not decrease, projecting it to remain between 3% and 3.5% over the next 12 months, contrary to market expectations of a decline [1] - There is a growing trend of U.S. Treasury bonds being held by price-sensitive investors, which may impact market dynamics [1] Group 3: Employment Situation - Although the U.S. unemployment rate has seen a mild increase recently, it does not indicate an impending recession, as maintaining approximately 40,000 jobs per month is sufficient to keep employment stable [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has adjusted its monetary policy by lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25% due to economic slowdown and rising inflation concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent indicators show a slowdown in U.S. economic activity, with employment growth decelerating and inflation rates increasing [1]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for August revealed only a 22,000 increase in jobs, significantly down from a revised 79,000 in July, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years [2]. - The Labor Department revised down the projected job growth for the next year by 911,000, raising concerns about the weakness in the U.S. job market [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 11 to 1 in favor of the 25 basis point rate cut, with only Stephen Milan opposing, advocating for a 50 basis point cut [3]. - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the need to balance the dual mandate of employment and inflation, indicating that future decisions will be data-driven, particularly focusing on inflation and employment data [3]. - The FOMC's economic forecast summary indicates an upward revision of the GDP growth forecast to 1.6% and an unemployment rate expectation of 4.5% [3]. Group 3: Political Pressures - President Trump has exerted pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with previous calls for Powell's resignation [1][2]. - The recent confirmation of Stephen Milan as a Fed governor, who aligns with Trump's views, raises questions about the Fed's independence [2][3]. - Powell's commitment to maintaining the Fed's independence amidst political pressures is crucial for future monetary policy decisions [3].