美联储降息前景突生变数。 据CME"美联储观察"，截至北京时间11月16日14:00，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已跌破50%，仅 有44.4%。有分析指出，美联储内部分歧加剧给12月的议息会议增添了巨大的不确定性。 美国政府"停摆"结束后，大量经济数据将密集发布，将为市场与美联储评估美国经济状况提供关键依 据。据美国商务部和劳工部已公布的详细时间表，数据发布将从下周四开始陆续展开。届时，市场将重 新定价美联储未来的降息路径。据摩根士丹利预测，美联储在12月9—10日议息会议前能够获取美国9月 就业、通胀、零售销售及三季度GDP初值等完整数据，关键在于10月和11月就业报告能否及时发布。 美联储降息预期骤降 北京时间11月16日，据CME"美联储观察"，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率跌破50%，仅有44.4%，维 持利率不变的概率升至55.6%；美联储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为48.6%，维持利率不变的概 率为34.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为16.7%。 有分析指出，多位美联储官员近日加大了对美国通胀进展可能放缓甚至停滞的警告力度，使得12月再次 降息的前景蒙上阴影。 美东时间11月14 ...

美联储降息前景突生变数。 据CME"美联储观察"，截至北京时间11月16日14:00，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已跌破50%，仅有44.4%。有分析指出，美联储内部分歧加剧给12月的议息会 议增添了巨大的不确定性。 博斯蒂克在西雅图的一次活动中表示："我已经能够支持前两次降息，我们会看到下一次降息会发生什么……我希望这些信息能够指导我认为适当的政策应该是什 么。" 同一天，美国达拉斯联储主席洛根明确表示，她将在12月反对降息。她在10月也反对过降息，原因是她担心通胀水平过高、呈上升趋势，而且回到美联储2%的目标 所需时间太长。 美国堪萨斯城联储主席施密德周五（11月14日）也表示："我认为进一步的降息对缓解劳动力市场的任何压力作用不大。这些压力更可能来自技术和移民政策的结构 性变化。但降息可能对通胀产生更持久的影响，因为市场会越来越怀疑我们对2%目标的承诺。" 前美联储官员指出，美联储当前处在一个艰难的处境。这确实让美联储主席鲍威尔的任务更困难。即便在这种情况下做出非常合理、良好的政策，也有可能导致糟 糕的结果，因为形势实在太复杂。 美国政府"停摆"结束后，大量经济数据将密集发布，将为市场与美联储评估美 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has resulted in the potential permanent loss of the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment data reports, which may hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Logan stated that she does not support another rate cut in December unless there is clear evidence of a faster decline in U.S. inflation levels [2] - Logan emphasized that the current inflation levels in the U.S. are still on an upward trend, and returning to the 2% target will take time [2] - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Goolsbee expressed caution regarding further rate cuts due to the lack of economic data caused by the government shutdown [2] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook indicated uncertainty about a potential rate cut in December, citing dual risks from inflation and the labor market outlook [2]

本周市场情况 一级市场： 据新华财经统计，本周（2025年11月10日-11月14日）共发行23笔中资离岸债券，其中包括7笔人民币债券、11笔美元债券、3笔港币债 券、2笔欧元债券。发行规模分别为107.96亿元人民币、18.25亿美元、32亿港币、7亿欧元。本周发行方式为直接发行的债券共15只，担 保发行的债券共 5只，直接发行+担保发行的债券共2只，采用银行备用信用证（SBLC）方式发行的债券共1只。 在离岸人民币债券领域，本周人民币企业债单笔最大发行规模为43亿元人民币，由华润置地有限公司发行。本周人民币债券发行最高票 息6.6%，由寿光市城市建设投资开发有限公司发行。 在中资美元债券市场，本周美元企业债单笔最大发行规模5亿美元，由农银国际控股有限公司发行。本周最高美元债发行票息 5.2%，由 亚洲开发银行发行。 二级速览： 本周中资美元债收益率涨跌不一。截至北京时间11月14日18时，Markit iBoxx 中资美元债综合指数与上周持平，报251.02；投资级美元债 指数周度上涨0.02%，报243.69；高收益美元债指数周度下跌0.08%，报244.22。本周，地产美元债指数周度下跌0.34%，报 ...

14日，美联储下属的达拉斯联邦储备银行行长洛根表示，除非看到美国通胀水平更快回落的明确证据，否则她不支持美联储在12月再次降息。洛根指出，美 国目前的通胀水平仍呈上行趋势，回到2%的目标需要时间。 此前，芝加哥联邦储备银行行长古尔斯比表示，美政府"停摆"导致经济数据缺失，这让他对进一步降息更加持谨慎态度。美联储理事莉萨·库克也表示，鉴 于通胀和劳动力市场前景的双重风险，目前并不能确定12月会再度降息。（总台记者 张颖哲） 美国白宫新闻秘书日前表示，由于此前政府"停摆"，今年10月份美国消费者价格指数（CPI）和就业数据统计报告"可能永远不会"发布。这将导致美国联邦 储备委员会（美联储）在信息不完整的情况下被迫进行重要决策。 ...

近期，美国通胀数据再次成为全球金融市场关注的焦点。花旗银行（Citigroup）在最新报告中指出，由于10月受政府停摆影响，统计部门的数据采集工作受 阻，导致10月CPI（消费者物价指数）数据可能存在一定偏差。这意味着市场依据该数据作出的政策预期，或需谨慎看待。 与此同时，花旗经济学家还预测，美国劳动力市场正在持续走弱，这可能强化市场对美联储在2024年末至2025年初进一步降息的预期。本文将结合宏观数据 与政策趋势，从通胀、就业、货币政策三个角度，深入解析这一事件对全球经济与跨境企业的潜在影响。 一、10月CPI数据或"失真"：通胀放缓信号仍需验证 根据花旗的报告，美国10月CPI数据的可靠性可能低于往期。主要原因在于，政府停摆期间，美国劳工统计局（BLS）部分工作人员无法按计划开展实地价 格采样与问卷调查。虽然统计机构后续通过"回溯提问"和"模型估算"补充数据，但样本完整性与时间准确性均受影响。 这意味着—— 即使CPI显示"通胀下降"，也未必反映真实物价走势。 美联储的货币政策变化不仅影响美国本土，也将对全球资本流动与汇率政策产生连锁反应。 一旦美联储降息，短期内可能带来以下三点影响： 美元可能出现阶段 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials have expressed caution regarding the rising expectations for interest rate cuts, indicating that the current interest rate levels are closer to neutral rather than overly tight, suggesting limited room for significant rate cuts in the near future [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that after two rate cuts this year, the policy rate is now closer to neutral, with inflation around 3% still above the 2% target, necessitating continued efforts to combat high inflation while supporting the labor market [4]. - Other Fed officials echoed similar sentiments, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack emphasizing the need to maintain restrictive rates to apply downward pressure on inflation, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noting that approximately 3% inflation remains high [4]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly mentioned that after two rate cuts this year, the balance between the goals of full employment and price stability has returned to a more balanced state, but service sector inflation has not shown sustained decline, warranting a more restrained market expectation for further easing [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following the cautious remarks from Fed officials, futures market pricing adjusted, with traders' bets on a December rate cut dropping from over 60% to around 50%, indicating a cooling confidence in the prospect of a rate cut [2]. - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with ADP reporting a private sector job increase of only 42,000 in October, while Challenger reported a significant rise in announced layoffs to 153,000, the highest for October since 2003 [6]. - Consumer sentiment is also weakening, with the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index falling to 50.3, the lowest since 2022, reflecting deteriorating expectations regarding job and income prospects [6]. Group 3: Challenges Faced by the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is navigating a complex situation with incomplete data due to prolonged government shutdowns, relying more on private and survey data to assess economic conditions [7][8]. - Musalem acknowledged the importance of restoring credible and sustainably updated official data, but noted that the Fed can still form reasonable judgments about economic conditions through financial market rates and other indicators [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Underperform the Market" [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The US service sector activity rebounded significantly in October, with inflation pressure rising. The ISM Services PMI reached 52.4, a new eight - month high, and the price index soared to 70, a three - year high. The employment index is still in the contraction range, but the decline rate has slowed [1] - There is a growing divergence among Fed voting members on the future path of interest rate cuts. There are sharp differences between "doves" and "hawks", and the probability of a 25bp rate cut in December is 67% [2] - The US government is about to end the shutdown, and the liquidity pressure is expected to ease. Once the government restarts, the frozen fiscal expenditure will be released, and nearly $1 trillion in the TGA account will flow back into the market [3] - The current market features economic resilience, inflation pressure, and policy uncertainty. It is recommended to use a short - to - medium - duration strategy to capture returns, while guarding against long - term interest rate risks and maintaining portfolio flexibility. The investment strategy for US Treasuries is still mainly defensive and secondarily aggressive [4] Summary by Directory US Treasury Benchmark Interest Rate - Figures include 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields, the Treasury yield curve, bid - to - cover ratios for various maturities of Treasuries, issuance winning bid rates for 2 - 30 - year Treasuries, monthly Treasury issuance, and the implied interest rate cut expectations in the federal funds futures market [12][16][18] US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - Figures cover US inflation year - on - year trends, the US federal government's annual cumulative fiscal deficit (fiscal year), the US economic surprise index, ISM PMI, consumer confidence index, financial conditions index, housing rent growth rate, number of unemployment benefit claimants, hourly wage year - on - year growth rate, non - farm payroll data, new housing approvals, starts, and sales year - on - year growth rates in the real estate market, personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth rate, break - even inflation expectations, and new ADP employment [24][26][28] Exchange Rates - Figures show the one - year trend of non - US currencies, the two - week changes in non - US currencies, the Sino - US sovereign bond yield spread, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield, the US dollar index and the RMB index, and the one - year locked - in exchange cost changes of the US dollar against the RMB [50][55][57] Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - Figures display the return trends of Chinese - issued US dollar bonds since 2023 (by rating and industry), the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - issued US dollar bonds, and the two - week returns (by rating and industry) [64][66][69] Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 12 rating actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers, including 5 rating withdrawals, 3 initial ratings, 2 rating downgrades, and 2 rating upgrades [72]

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook anticipates persistent high inflation in the U.S. over the next year due to the impact of tariff policies on the economy [1][3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is affecting corporate pricing strategies, with some companies reducing inventory at lower prices before cost increases [3] - The recent 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as appropriate, but the balance between rising inflation risks and a weakening labor market is a concern [5] Group 1 - Cook indicated that tariffs are increasing costs for U.S. businesses, which may keep inflation elevated in the coming year [3] - She noted that interactions with business leaders suggest that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices has not fully materialized [3] - Cook is prepared to take strong action if the effects of tariffs are larger or more prolonged than expected [3] Group 2 - The ongoing federal government shutdown is expected to exert pressure on economic activity this quarter and may have spillover effects on the private sector [3] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates again reflects a belief that the downside risks to employment outweigh the upside risks to inflation [5] - Cook emphasized that future monetary policy is not on a predetermined path, leaving the December rate decision uncertain [5]

Core Insights - The U.S. container import volume continued to decline in September, with an 8.4% year-over-year drop, marking the largest monthly decline in recent years [1] - The downward trend in container throughput is expected to persist and become more pronounced until 2026, according to industry analysts [1][6] Container Import Trends - In September, the top 10 U.S. ports saw a 6.6% year-over-year decrease in container throughput, contrasting with previous months' trends [1] - The decline in imports is attributed to seasonal demand weakness and cautious sentiment related to tariffs [1][3] - The National Retail Federation (NRF) anticipates a 5.6% decrease in import cargo volume at major U.S. ports in 2025 due to new tariffs [3] Tariff Impact - The implementation of new tariffs has led to a rush to ports in previous months, with September showing a 12.8% drop in empty container imports at the Port of Oakland [3] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies is causing significant economic unpredictability, affecting market demand [4] - The Drury East-West Contract Rate Index fell by 3% year-over-year, indicating a decline in shipping rates [4] Future Projections - The NRF predicts that the last four months of 2025 will see a 15.7% decline in container volume compared to the same period in 2024 [6] - Analysts expect to see double-digit percentage declines in cargo volumes at most U.S. ports in the coming months, continuing into 2026 [6] Global Supply Chain Adjustments - Global supply chain adjustments are occurring faster than anticipated, with manufacturers in countries facing high U.S. tariffs finding alternative markets more attractive [8] - Despite the decline in U.S. container throughput, global container throughput reached record highs in recent months [8] Economic Conditions - High inflation levels and a continuous decline in the manufacturing PMI in the U.S. are suppressing consumer spending, directly impacting container shipping demand from Asia [9] - The Federal Reserve Chairman indicated that additional tariffs could lead to a temporary increase in inflation, affecting consumer prices [9]