Group 1: Report's Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction of the current spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB is the rhythm control in the time dimension, not the direction choice. The trend of reducing the depreciation pressure of the RMB against the US dollar is certain, and the key variables are the specific timing of the appreciation start and the speed control during the process [2][31][34] - In the short - term, the RMB appreciation benefits from policy guidance and the A - share dividends brought by market sentiment repair. The continuous upward adjustment of the RMB central parity rate has significantly increased market trading activity, laying a kinetic energy foundation for the exchange rate to break through the previous narrow - range oscillation range [2][31] - In the short - term, the probability of the RMB exchange rate directly returning to the "6 era" is low. It is more likely to be in the process of gradually repairing to the reasonable equilibrium center, as the current appreciation depends more on policy guidance and short - term market sentiment support, and there is also policy - level rhythm control [3][31] - The current exchange rate market shows a differentiated feature of "increased volatility at the spot end and strengthened trend at the swap end". The spot exchange rate fluctuates widely under the influence of sentiment and short - term funds, while the swap end maintains a clear trend driven by interest rate parity repair and changes in the US - China interest rate spread [3][32] - From a policy perspective, the central bank may guide the exchange rate to return through a gradual "small - step and fast - run" operation. Before the exchange rate breaks through the 7.10 mark, the central bank may moderately slow down the upward adjustment speed of the central parity rate; if it breaks through 7.10 smoothly, the central bank may gradually increase the intervention [4][33] - In the medium - term, for the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB to achieve a trend - strengthening (including having the basis to return to the "6 era"), two key conditions are required: the US dollar index enters a clear downward channel, and the domestic economic fundamentals show substantial positive changes [7][34] Group 2: Driving Forces of RMB Appreciation - The Fed's monetary policy stance has shifted from hawkish to dovish, especially the loose signal released by Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting, creating a favorable external environment for the RMB [10] - Domestic exchange - rate stabilization policies have taken effect, and counter - cyclical adjustment tools have effectively curbed the RMB depreciation expectation and promoted the market's expectation of the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB to gradually tend to balance [10] - The recovery of the A - share market has driven up risk appetite and further stimulated the RMB's catch - up demand [10] Group 3: Role of Policy and Market in Exchange Rate Movement - Policy has played an important role in the process of the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB breaking below 7.15. The central parity rate has continuously released stable signals to guide market expectations. At the same time, market forces are also gradually strengthening, as evidenced by the re - emergence of the stock - exchange linkage effect [12] Group 4: Impact of Resident Deposit Movement - Resident deposit "movement" refers to the process of residents shifting a large amount of savings from the banking system to non - bank financial investment fields. It is mainly driven by income and expectations, and has multiple impacts on the financial market and economic structure [21] - Recently, the "migration" of resident deposits to non - bank financial institutions has provided continuous incremental funds for the stock market, helping to raise the reasonable valuation center of the A - share market and laying a solid foundation for the index - level market [22] - The "household deposit/total market value" chart has three core defects and cannot be used as direct evidence of resident deposit "movement". Although there is a lack of real - time data verification, potential capital inflows can provide marginal and phased support for the RMB exchange rate, but its sustainability and actual impact scale need to be rationally evaluated [27][30]

Group 1: Currency Dynamics - The recent appreciation of the RMB is seen as a concentrated release of previously "stagnant" gains, influenced by both policy and stock market movements[1] - Since the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, the RMB has appreciated significantly, with the central bank's midpoint rate adjusted up by 258 pips since August 25[2] - The RMB's previous stagnation, with only a 1.2% increase since January despite a 10% decline in the USD index, created momentum for this appreciation[3] Group 2: Market Interactions - The strong rebound in the A-share market on August 28 coincided with the RMB's rapid appreciation, indicating a restoration of market sentiment[3] - The A-share market has shown a notable profit effect compared to US markets, leading to a potential inflow of funds back into China[3] - The RMB's recent rise is not solely due to cross-border capital inflows; it is also seen as an attractive carry currency, prompting institutional buying[4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The RMB's appreciation trend is expected to continue, with potential to reach around 7 against the USD if the central bank eases restrictions[6] - The central bank may adopt a gradual approach to adjusting the midpoint rate to avoid excessive market volatility[6] - The shift in global asset allocation towards higher-yielding RMB assets is likely to support the A-share market and enhance confidence in economic recovery[6]

Group 1 - The offshore RMB has risen for the fourth consecutive day, breaking the 7.15 level, indicating strong market demand for RMB despite a stronger USD [2] - Major investment banks like Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, UBS, and TD Bank have raised their RMB to USD exchange rate forecasts to 7.0, influencing market sentiment and creating a "buying momentum" [2] - Optimism regarding a potential trade agreement between China and the US is supporting the RMB's strength, as indicated by reports of upcoming trade talks in Washington [2] Group 2 - The correlation between rising stock markets and foreign capital inflow is reinforcing the expectation of a stronger RMB, creating a self-reinforcing cycle [3] - The current market dynamics reflect a "stock-foreign exchange linkage," which is a characteristic of phase-specific market trends, indicating both strength and potential fragility [3] - A report highlights predictions for the Chinese stock market and identifies 20 stocks that are expected to perform well, based on an analysis of 20,000 articles from Chinese media [3]