2025年12月 施罗德投资首席投资总监Johanna Kyrklund（中文译名：约翰娜∙基尔克伦） 在即将到来的2026年，尽管市场对股票估值保持关注，但投资者仍充满期待。由于超大规模云端服务供 应商（hyperscalers）对数据中心和云端基础建设进行大量投资，市场普遍将当前情况 与1999-2000年的 互联网泡沫相提并论。与此同时，许多人工智能(AI) 初创公司仍处于亏损，其估值则由供应商融资 （vendor financing）所推高。在此背景下，市场上也出现了关于"煤矿中的金丝雀"(canaries in coal mine)、"蟑螂理论"（当一只出现时，通常还有更多将会出现）以及"在派对上跳最后一支舞"(staying at the party for one last dance) 的说法。 以上如有提及证券仅供参考，不构成任何投资或撤资之建议。 本文件仅供参考之用，并不打算作任何方面的宣传材料。本文件不应视为提供投资意见或建议。有意投 资者应寻求独立的意见。本文所载的内容为撰文者的意见和见解，不一定代表施罗德投资的看法，或在 其他施罗德通讯、策略或基金反映出来。本资料所载资料只在资料刊发 ...

Core Viewpoint - ServiceNow's stock dropped 11% following the announcement of a $7 billion acquisition of Armis, leading to analyst downgrades and investor concerns [2][3] Valuation and Performance - ServiceNow's current stock price of approximately $780 is considered appealing, but its high valuation makes it sensitive to negative surprises, presenting a challenging entry point [3] - The company's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 15.2 compared to 3.2 for the S&P 500, and its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 111.4 versus 23.5 for the benchmark [11] - ServiceNow's revenues have grown significantly, with a 21.1% increase from $10 billion to $13 billion over the last 12 months, compared to 6.0% growth for the S&P 500 [11] - The operating income for the last four quarters totaled $1.8 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 13.9%, which is lower than the S&P 500's 18.8% [11] Financial Strength - ServiceNow's balance sheet is strong, with a debt of $2.4 billion and a market capitalization of $162 billion, leading to a low debt-to-equity ratio of 1.2% compared to 21.2% for the S&P 500 [11] - The company has a cash-to-assets ratio of 24.8%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 6.9%, indicating strong liquidity [11] Growth and Profitability - ServiceNow's average revenue growth rate over the past three years is 22.3%, outperforming the S&P 500's 5.5% [11] - The company's profit margins are above most companies in the Trefis coverage universe, reflecting strong profitability [8] Resilience During Downturns - ServiceNow's stock has shown slightly better performance than the S&P 500 during recent downturns, indicating moderate resilience [10] - The overall assessment of ServiceNow's performance across key metrics is categorized as "Very Strong" for growth and financial stability, and "Strong" for profitability [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of global stock markets, particularly focusing on the valuation of U.S. stocks and the characteristics of bull and bear markets, while also introducing investment opportunities through global index funds. Group 1: Global Stock Market Overview - This week, global stock markets experienced slight fluctuations with minimal movement [1][2][3][4] - The U.S. stock market has seen a slight decline, while non-U.S. markets have shown slight increases [2][3] - A-shares in China also experienced a slight increase, indicating a stable market environment [4] Group 2: Valuation Insights - Despite significant increases in U.S. stock indices over the years, they have rarely reached overvaluation, mostly remaining at normal valuation levels [5][6] - As of October this year, U.S. stocks touched high valuation levels, but have since corrected back to a normal high valuation [7][8] - The growth in earnings over the past two years has helped absorb some of the high valuations in the U.S. stock market [9] Group 3: Bull and Bear Market Characteristics - U.S. stock markets have experienced long bull and bear cycles, with each cycle lasting 15-20 years [12][13][14] - Long bear markets typically occur during economic recessions, as seen in the 1970s and from 2000 to 2010 [15][16] - The current economic environment has not yet entered a recession, and earnings growth remains the primary driver for stock index increases [22][23] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Historical data indicates that significant undervaluation opportunities in global stock indices occurred in 2018, 2020, and 2022 [29] - The article highlights the introduction of a global index investment advisory portfolio that diversifies across various stock markets [34][35] - The portfolio aims to track global stock market performance, although there are current purchase limits for domestic investors [37] Group 5: Book Promotion - A new edition of the book "The Long-Term Investment Guide" has been released, which includes updated data and new chapters [40] - The book emphasizes that stocks are the best long-term investment vehicle, encouraging asset allocation towards equities [41][42]

A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the A-share market is 17.14, with a historical average of 25.72[7] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE (TTM) of 14.04, while the CSI 300 Index stands at 13.16[9] - The growth of the A-share market is influenced by both earnings changes and valuation changes, with contributions to index fluctuations analyzed[12] Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 11.93, with a historical maximum of 22.67 and a minimum of 7.36[58] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE (TTM) of 23.72, indicating a significant valuation compared to other sectors[62] US Market Valuation - The S&P 500 Index has a current PE (TTM) of 29.04, with historical values ranging from a minimum of 11.21 to a maximum of 41.99[83] - The NASDAQ Index currently stands at a PE (TTM) of 42.03, reflecting a high valuation compared to historical averages[89] Sector-Specific Valuation Insights - Non-bank financials, food and beverage, and non-ferrous metals sectors in A-shares are currently at historically low PE levels[23] - The technology sector, including computing and electronics, is experiencing high PE levels, indicating potential overvaluation[23] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy effectiveness falling short of expectations, corporate earnings not meeting forecasts, and significant market volatility[103]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that if the U.S. economy remains strong through 2026, the S&P 500 index is expected to rise by 9%, but investors should prepare for a potential 20% drop in case of a recession [1] - Stifel estimates a 25% probability of a recession occurring, despite it not being the base case for major Wall Street firms [1] - The labor market shows signs of instability, with rising unemployment and layoffs, which could lead to reduced consumer spending, negatively impacting an economy where 68% of GDP comes from consumer spending [1] Group 2 - The current stock valuations are at historical highs, which may pose challenges for investors, as the median market correction during recessions since World War II has been 20% [1] - Barry Bannister emphasizes that the price-to-earnings ratio becomes crucial when the S&P 500 is perceived as overvalued [2] - High-volatility stocks, such as Palantir and GameStop, have seen significant declines, indicating a potential early warning for a broader market downturn [2] Group 3 - The S&P 500's equity risk premium is nearing levels seen during the late 1990s and early 2000s dot-com bubble, suggesting heightened risk in current valuations [4] - Bannister's fundamental prediction is for the S&P 500 to achieve positive returns by 2026, but he advises establishing hedging positions with defensive stocks [6] - Recommended defensive ETFs include the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP), Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV), JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI), and iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF (DBMF) [6]

Core Insights - Carvana's stock has experienced a remarkable recovery, rising from below $5 in late 2022 to nearly $472 in 2025, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 17% increase and CarMax's 50% decline [2][3] Financial Performance - Carvana's revenue has grown at an average rate of 11.6% over the past three years, with a notable 46% increase from $13 billion to $18 billion in the last twelve months, and a 54.5% year-over-year growth to $5.6 billion in the latest quarter [7] - The company generated $1.7 billion in operating income over the past year, achieving an operating margin of 9.4%, which, while improved from previous losses, remains below the S&P 500's average of nearly 19% [8] - Operating cash flow was approximately $666 million, resulting in a cash flow margin of 3.6%, while net income of $629 million reflects a 3.4% net margin, indicating that Carvana is functional but not yet a margin leader [9] Valuation Metrics - Carvana's market capitalization exceeds $100 billion, with a price-to-sales ratio of around 2.9x, slightly below the S&P 500's 3.2x, but its price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 92 times, over three times the S&P 500's 23 [4][6] - The stock's valuation implies expectations of extremely strong and sustained profitability, with significant risks associated with any shortfall in performance [6] Financial Stability - Carvana has a debt total of $5.6 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of roughly 5.5%, which is better than the S&P average, and a cash-to-assets ratio near 27%, significantly higher than the broader market's single-digit level [10] Market Behavior - The stock has shown high volatility, with a 99% decline during the inflation shock of 2022, compared to a 25% decline for the S&P 500, and a recovery period of 947 days, which is approximately double that of the index [11][12] - Carvana's stock tends to react sharply to earnings, projections, and operational updates, indicating a high-beta characteristic [13] Investment Considerations - Carvana's turnaround is genuine, and its inclusion in the S&P 500 adds credibility, but the current stock price reflects much of the anticipated growth, suggesting that investors are paying a premium for future performance [14]

但市盈率仅10.8倍，远低于美光科技的24.7倍。 盈利能力显著高于美光，仍被低估。 SK海力士还制定了提升股东价值的计划，股价甚至可能更快达到91万韩元。 闪德资讯，一个聚焦关注存储产业供应链和趋势变化的垂直媒体。 据闪德资讯获悉，SK海力士承认可能发行美国ADR，计划在美国上市。 有望拓宽投资基础，解决股票估值偏低的问题，开辟大规模的融资渠道。 得益于近期强劲上涨，SK海力士市值已超过美光科技。 如果发行成功，SK海力士将成为第九家在美国上市的韩国公司。 ...

Group 1: A-Share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) of the A-share market is 16.33, with a median value of 13.52 and a maximum of 30.60[9] - The PE (TTM) excluding financial and oil sectors is 25.66, indicating a higher valuation compared to the overall market[6] - The risk premium for the A-share market has fluctuated, with a current ERP (万得全A) of approximately 1.5%[16] Group 2: Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 12.02, with a median of 10.29 and a maximum of 22.67[56] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE of 23.65, reflecting a significant valuation compared to other sectors[61] - The median PE for the Hong Kong financial sector is 7.45, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical averages[66] Group 3: U.S. Market Valuation - The S&P 500 index has a current PE (TTM) of 29.38, with a median of 21.14 and a maximum of 41.99[80] - The NASDAQ index shows a current PE of 42.14, indicating a high valuation compared to historical data[88] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has a current PE of 30.58, with a median of 18.64[92] Group 4: Sector-Specific Valuation Insights - Non-bank financials, food and beverage, and non-ferrous metals sectors have low PE ratios, indicating potential undervaluation[23] - The technology sector, particularly computing and electronics, shows high PE ratios, suggesting overvaluation risks[37] - The consumer sector, including liquor and pharmaceuticals, has a median PE of 19.25 and 37.48 respectively, indicating strong market interest[30]

Core Viewpoint - Costco's business is performing well, but its stock faces challenges due to high valuation and lack of catalysts [1][2] Group 1: Business Performance - Costco's revenue grew approximately 8% for both Q4 and the full fiscal year, with comparable sales increasing by 6.4% in Q4 and 7.6% for the full year [3] - There is a slight slowdown in comparable store sales growth, with November's growth at 6.4%, down from 6.8% in October [4] Group 2: Membership Fees and Catalysts - Costco raised membership fees in the U.S. and Canada, contributing to a 14% increase in membership fees in Q4 of fiscal 2025 [6] - The company is unlikely to raise membership fees again for several years, limiting potential profit growth from this source [7] Group 3: Valuation Concerns - Costco's stock trades at about 49 times earnings, significantly higher than the S&P 500's P/E of 25, creating high expectations for performance [9] - The company's business model focuses on passing savings to customers, making rapid margin expansion unlikely [10]

马斯克过去曾抨击特斯拉股票的做空者，最近还警告比尔・盖茨 "尽快" 平掉他的空头头寸。 尽管伯里警告特斯拉的估值过高，但华尔街却变得越来越看好。上周，Melius Research 将这家电动汽车 制造商列为 "必持" 股票，主要是由于特斯拉在自动驾驶方面的努力，以及首席执行官埃隆・马斯克谈 论其芯片制造进展。此前一周，Stifel 因特斯拉在全自动驾驶 (FSD) 和机器人出租车服务方面的优势， 上调了其目标价并重申了对特斯拉的 "买入" 评级。 近日，特斯拉公布了欧洲主要市场 11 月销量数据，销量下滑进一步恶化，但同时也上演起 "冰火两重 天"。特斯拉在法国的 11 月新车销量大跌 58%，仅略低于 1600 辆。在丹麦，特斯拉销量暴跌 49%; 在 瑞典更是锐减 59%，连续多个季度呈现疲态。 与此同时，挪威成为罕见例外，该国销量已超越其他任何汽车制造商以往的年销量纪录，在距离年终尚 有一个月之际提前创下该国年度销售新高。特斯拉 11 月在挪威的注册量暴增 175%，部分原因是当地 关于未来电动车税收优惠政策的不确定性，促使消费者提前购车。 本文源自：智通财经APP 知名做空者迈克尔・伯里 (Mich ...