随着新一轮寒潮天气的到来，我国北方地区集中供暖已经正式开启，能源保供也步入迎峰度冬关键期。 能源企业全面开启冬供模式。 供暖季来临 能源企业全面开启冬供模式 中国石油今冬明春供暖季，安排天然气保供资源量同比增长3.7%，约占国内供应总量的六成。 中国石油生产经营管理部总调度室处长 乔跃：我们组织长庆、塔里木、西南、青海等油气田开足马 力，全力增产；我们最高日供气量达到7.38亿立方米，保障北方地区集中供暖。 管网加速建设 提升"全国一张网"度峰能力 天然气输送网络的稳定性与应急能力直接关系全国的能源安全。国家管网集团集中统一调配，加强设备 设施安全维护，提升管网应急能力。 在山东青岛，一艘满载6.9万吨液化天然气的运输船靠泊接收站，开始接卸作业。这是该站10月以来接 卸的第7船液化天然气。 作为华北地区天然气调峰保供的重要枢纽，天津液化天然气接收站采用"双船在泊、同步卸料"的作业模 式，提升接卸效率和储备能力。 中国石化天然气分公司天津液化公司总经理 刘景俊：依托智能化管控平台，实现从船舶接卸到管网外 输的全链条精细化管理，日均外输气量在1000万立方米左右，高峰期外输能力可以达到5800万立方米。 在推动海 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". Coastal city temperature drops and port coal prices are temporarily stable. Due to factors such as approaching peak - winter season, low coal inventory in northern ports, and expected supply contraction at the end of the year, coal prices have been strongly running recently. However, the National Development and Reform Commission mentioned energy supply guarantee again, cooling market sentiment. It is expected that thermal coal will start high - level oscillation in the short term [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Inventory - As of November 13, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 24.092 million tons, with a weekly cumulative increase of 56,800 tons, but still significantly lower than the same period last year by 3.244 million tons [4] Market Driving Factors - Multiple factors such as approaching peak - winter season, low coal inventory in northern ports, and expected supply contraction at the end of the year drove the recent strong operation of coal prices. The mention of energy supply guarantee by the National Development and Reform Commission cooled market sentiment [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs at the bottom, but the upward drive is suppressed by inventory. It is expected to trade in a range, with rebar between 2900 - 3200 and hot - rolled coil between 3100 - 3400. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption, and the risk lies in the possible negative feedback from the decline in the profitability of steel enterprises [3]. - The iron ore fundamentals show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with continuous inventory accumulation, but a structural shortage of deliverable products. The price lacks a strong trend driver. In the short - term, the shipment of iron ore is increasing again, and the output of non - mainstream mines remains high. The iron ore price may be affected by the change in coking coal valuation [20]. - In the short - term, the coal - coke futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure due to factors such as high spot prices, weak downstream acceptance, and reduced demand. In the long - term, the coal - coke price may rise due to supply restrictions and winter storage demand [30]. - Ferroalloys are facing high inventory and weak demand. The cost center may shift down due to the impact of energy supply guarantee on coking coal prices, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to trade weakly [42]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. Without production cuts, the valuation has no upward elasticity. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the upper - middle stream inventory is high, but the price is supported by cost [52]. - The glass market has weak sales recently, and the high inventory in the middle stream puts pressure on the spot price. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but the long - term price is supported by cost and policy expectations [75]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price and Spread Data**: On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and hot - rolled coil 01, 05 contracts changed compared to the previous day. The rebar 01 - 05 and hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 month - spreads also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions on November 18, 2025, showed different changes compared to the previous day. The basis of different contracts also changed [8][10]. - **Ratio Data**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke for different contracts on November 18, 2025, remained unchanged compared to the previous day [17]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, 09 contracts increased compared to the previous day, and the basis of different contracts decreased [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of November 14, 2025, the daily average iron - water output increased week - on - week, the global and Australian - Brazilian shipments increased, and the 45 - port inventory increased [24]. Coal - Coke - **Market Analysis**: The short - term price adjustment is due to high spot prices, weak downstream acceptance, and reduced demand. The long - term price may rise due to supply restrictions and winter storage demand [30]. - **Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the coal - coke futures and spot prices, basis, month - spreads, and other data showed different changes compared to the previous day [32][33][34]. Ferroalloys - **Market Outlook**: Facing high inventory and weak demand, the cost center may shift down, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to trade weakly [42]. - **Data of Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: On November 18, 2025, the basis, month - spreads, and spot prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon showed different changes compared to the previous day [43][45]. Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Priced by cost, without production cuts, the valuation has no upward elasticity. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the inventory is high, but the price is supported by cost [52]. - **Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the soda ash futures prices and month - spreads decreased compared to the previous day [52]. Glass - **Market Analysis**: Weak sales recently, high inventory in the middle stream puts pressure on the spot price. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but the long - term price is supported by cost and policy expectations [75]. - **Price and Sales Data**: On November 18, 2025, the glass futures prices and month - spreads decreased compared to the previous day. The sales in different regions showed different trends in the recent period [76].

随着新一轮寒潮天气的到来，我国北方地区集中供暖已经正式开启，能源保供也步入迎峰度冬关键期。能源企业全面开启冬供模式。 供暖季来临 能源企业全面开启冬供模式 在山东青岛，一艘满载6.9万吨液化天然气的运输船靠泊接收站，开始接卸作业。这是该站10月以来接卸的第7船液化天然气。 作为华北地区天然气调峰保供的重要枢纽，天津液化天然气接收站采用"双船在泊、同步卸料"的作业模式，提升接卸效率和储备能力。 中国石化天然气分公司天津液化公司总经理 刘景俊：依托智能化管控平台，实现从船舶接卸到管网外输的全链条精细化管理，日均外输气量在1000万立方 米左右，高峰期外输能力可以达到5800万立方米。 在推动海上进口资源稳供增供的同时，陆上气田加大了增产保供力度。国内最大天然气生产基地——中国石油长庆油田目前天然气产量提升至1.35亿立方 米，较月初增加300万立方米。在四川达州，"川气东送"工程主供气源地的中原油田普光气田，随着多口日产超20万立方米的高产新井接连投产，气田备战 迎峰度冬的天然气井数量已突破80口，创历史新高。 中国石油生产经营管理部总调度室处长 乔跃：我们组织长庆、塔里木、西南、青海等油气田开足马力，全力增产； ...

随着新一轮寒潮天气的到来，我国北方地区集中供暖已经正式开启，能源保供也步入迎峰度冬关键期。 能源企业全面开启冬供模式。中国石油今冬明春供暖季，安排天然气保供资源量同比增长3.7%，约占 国内供应总量的六成。天然气输送网络的稳定性与应急能力直接关系全国的能源安全。国家管网集团集 中统一调配，加强设备设施安全维护，提升管网应急能力。储气库就像天然气的"地下粮仓"，在用气淡 季，把富余天然气注入地下空间储存，待到冬季供暖用气高峰期再集中采出，是保障能源稳定供应 的"压舱石"。眼下，国内各储气库已提前完成年度注气任务，为民生供暖蓄足能量。（央视） ...

央视网消息：随着新一轮寒潮天气的到来，我国北方地区集中供暖已正式开启，能源保供也步入迎峰度冬关键期，能源企业全面开启 冬供模式。 作为华北地区天然气调峰保供的重要枢纽，天津液化天然气接收站采用"双船在泊、同步卸料"的作业模式，提升接卸效率和储备能 力，目前单日最高外输气量超3700万方，较去年同期增长15%。 在山东青岛，一艘满载6.9万吨液化天然气的运输船靠泊接收站，开始接卸作业。这是该站10月以来接卸的第7船液化天然气。 在推动海上进口资源稳供增供的同时，陆上气田加大了增产保供力度。国内最大天然气生产基地——中国石油长庆油田目前天然气产 量提升至1.35亿立方米，较月初增加300万立方米。在四川达州，"川气东送"工程主供气源地的中原油田普光气田，随着多口日产超 20万立方米的高产新井接连投产，气田备战迎峰度冬的天然气井数量已突破80口，创历史新高。 管网加速建设 提升 "全国一张网"度峰能力 天然气输送网络的稳定性与应急能力直接关系全国的能源安全。国家管网集团集中统一调配，加强设备设施安全维护，提升管网应急 能力。 新疆北疆地区近日迎来大风降温天气，为应对极端天气对管网运行的影响，国家管网集团启动了应急保 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 11 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：iFind 数据显示，截至 11 月 13 日，环渤海 9 港煤炭总库存 2409.2 万吨，周环比累库 56.8 万吨，但较去年同期库存依然大幅偏低 324.4 万吨。此前，由于迎峰度冬临近，且北港存煤 偏低，加之年底煤炭供应存收缩预期，多因素驱动近期煤价强势运行，不过今日国家发改委再提 能源保供，市场情绪迎来降温，预计短期内动力煤将开始高位震荡运行。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 动力煤现货 | | | | 震荡 | 观望情绪增加，港口煤价暂稳运 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | ...

新华财经北京11月18日电中央气象台11月17日18时继续发布寒潮和大风蓝色预警。自11月14日开始的今 年下半年首次全国性寒潮过程，降温幅度大、大风天气显著、一些地方降下暴雪，对农业、交通、能源 、市场供应等带来诸多挑战和影响，各相关部门多措并举全力应对。 首次全国性寒潮：多地生产生活受影响 据中央气象台预报，受强冷空气影响，预计17日至19日，四川北部和东部、重庆、江汉西部、江淮东 部、江南大部、华南以及贵州、云南东部有6℃至8℃降温。其中，湖北西部、安徽南部、浙江西部、广 西东部和中南部、广东西部的部分地区降温10℃至12℃。 同时，蒙冀鄂皖湘赣浙闽等省份的部分地区有5至6级风、阵风达7至9级。 陈洪宛表示，下一步，国家发展改革委会同有关方面将继续做好能源保供工作，稳定能源生产供应，抓 好能源中长期合同履约，全力做好高峰期能源保供，提升低温雨雪冰冻等灾害应对水平，重点保障民生 采暖用能。 国家发展改革委预计，供暖季期间能源供需总体平衡，民生用能保供稳价和群众温暖过冬有保障。 国家能源局市场监管司副司长张燕秦表示，将持续推进源网荷储各环节协同发力，坚决守住大电网安全 和民生用电底线。聚焦极端寒潮、雨雪冰冻 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Coal and Coke Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: November 17, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team [2] - Analyst: Zhang Xuan, License No. Z0022723 [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 2: Price Forecast and Volatility - **Price Range Forecast (Monthly)** - Coking Coal: 1100 - 1350 [3] - Coke: 1550 - 1850 [3] - **Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling)** - Coking Coal: 36.02% [3] - Coke: 28.42% [3] - **Current Volatility Historical Percentile** - Coking Coal: 69.61% [3] - Coke: 60.19% [3] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Hedging** - Scenario: Steel mills' profit margins are shrinking, making it difficult for coke producers to raise prices. Coke producers are worried about future price drops and want to lock in sales prices in advance. - Strategy: Short the Coke 2601 contract. - Hedging Tool: J2601 (Sell) - Recommended Hedging Ratio: 25% at (1780, 1830); 50% at (1830 - 1880) [3] - **Procurement Management** - Scenario: Macroeconomic sentiment is fluctuating. Coking coal mine production rates are seasonally low. Factors such as over - production checks and anti - cut - throat competition in the fourth quarter are affecting coking coal supply. Coking plants are worried about future price increases and want to lock in procurement prices in advance. - Strategy: Long the Coking Coal 2605 contract. - Hedging Tool: JM2605 (Buy) - Recommended Hedging Ratio: 25% at (1150, 1180); 50% at (1120, 1150) [3] Group 4: Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report | Commodity | Unit | 2025 - 11 - 17 | 2025 - 11 - 14 | 2025 - 11 - 10 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | Tons | 108272 | 111927 | 128592 | - 3655 | - 20320 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | Tons | 150567 | 144083 | 127028 | 6484 | 23539 | | Iron Ore | Lots | 900 | 900 | 800 | 0 | 100 | | Coking Coal | Lots | 100 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 0 | | Coke | Lots | 2070 | 2070 | 2070 | 0 | 0 | | Ferrosilicon | Contracts | 8450 | 8450 | 5699 | 0 | 2751 | | Ferromanganese | Contracts | 19863 | 18663 | 14358 | 1200 | 5505 | [4] Group 5: Core Logic and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Logic** - Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized stable energy production and supply and peak - period energy security, but this is a routine policy and not the core reason for the downward trend in the futures market. - The key factors are the large increase in coking coal and thermal coal spot prices, low acceptance from downstream users, strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and miners' fear of high prices leading to faster sales. - Downstream steel mills' losses are increasing, more steel mills plan to conduct maintenance, iron - water production is expected to decline, and coal - coke demand is seasonally weakening. It is difficult for the fourth round of coke price increases to be implemented. - In the short term, futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure. In the long term, over - production checks and safety production policies will limit coking coal supply elasticity. With the upcoming winter storage demand, the downward space for coking coal spot prices is limited. [4] - **Strategy Recommendations** - Coking Coal reference range: (1100, 1350); Coke reference range: (1600, 1850). If prices fall to the lower end of the range and show signs of stabilization and rebound, consider going long. [4] Group 6:利多 and利空解读 - **利多解读** - In the fourth quarter, under the constraints of "anti - cut - throat competition" and "over - production checks" policies, domestic mine production rates face a theoretical upper limit, restricting coking coal supply elasticity. - As the starting year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" in 2026, the long - term market outlook has improved significantly, and this year's winter storage scale is expected to be better than last year, providing phased support for coal - coke prices. [6] - **利空解读** - Recently, steel mills' profits have been damaged, the number of maintenance steel mills has increased, iron - water production has decreased month - on - month, end - users generally believe that current coking coal spot prices are too high, and their willingness to purchase is low. Coal - coke demand has reached a phased peak, and short - term prices may face adjustment. [7] Group 7: Coal - Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices** - Multiple indicators such as coking coal and coke warehouse receipt costs, basis, spreads between different contracts, and related ratios (e.g., coking profit, ore - coke ratio, etc.) are provided with specific values and their daily and weekly changes. [8] - **Spot Prices** - Spot prices of various coking coal and coke products, including domestic and imported ones, are given, along with their daily and weekly changes. Import and export profits for different types of coal and coke are also presented. [9][10]

秋意散尽，朔风渐起，凛冽寒意悄然来袭。从漠河的林海雪原到江南的烟雨街巷，从蒙东的辽阔草原到 川蜀的丘陵盆地，千家万户对温暖的期盼，正转化为能源保供战场上最紧迫的号角。在这寒冬时节，国 家能源集团各条保供战线上却处处是一片热火朝天的景象。井巷深处，机械轰鸣不绝于耳；运输动脉， 奔涌铁流川流不息；电厂厂区，机组运行昼夜不停，这冲天斗志与拳拳之心交融共鸣，化作源源不断的 暖流，涌向千家万户、点亮烟火人间。 进入冬季，面对严峻神圣的保供职责，国家能源集团锚定"保民生、保安全、保稳定"核心目标，深入发 挥一体化保供能力，充分释放优质产能，坚持"以煤定电、以热定电"，全力以赴保产量、保供应、保民 生，以高度的政治责任感和使命感扛起保障迎峰度冬用能需求重任，守护人民群众温暖过冬。今年前10 个月，国家能源集团月均产煤量超5000万吨。 保产量，筑牢能源保供产能支撑 面对保供重任，国家能源集团将保持煤炭稳产高产作为首要任务，重点强化煤炭资源组织，加大外采和 储备力度。10月以来，已向全国供应商品煤近亿吨，同比增长2.2%，蒙东东北等关键区域稳步提升库 存，全力保障资源充足。联动运输环节，通过精细化管理深挖产能、筑牢运输防线， ...