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航运衍生品数据日报-20251119
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 06:24
Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Report's Core View - The adjustment of the pricing cycle of the EC2602 contract is individually bullish for this contract, but the pricing is relatively full, and investors should not blindly chase the high [8]. - It is necessary to observe the loading situation in November to determine whether it can lay a good foundation for the price increase in December, and the price increase situation in December (whether it is one or two rounds) and the amplitude and time of the high point are uncertain [7]. - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [9]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Freight Index - The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe are 1451, 1094, 1823, 1238, 2600, and 1417 respectively, with changes of -2.92%, 3.39%, -17.59%, -6.85%, -8.71%, and 7.11% compared to the previous values [5]. - The current values of SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1357 and 2029 respectively, with changes of -9.77% and 0.00% compared to the previous values [5]. Contract Information - The current values of contracts EC2506, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 are 1385.0, 1509.6, 1112.0, 1769.5, 1678.1, and 1179.6 respectively, with changes of -1.35%, -0.76%, -0.54%, -1.27%, -2.78%, and -0.68% compared to the previous values [5]. - The current values of EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 positions are 1585, 1161, 2455, 10432, 38860, and 16145 respectively, with changes of (36), (12), 51, (1654), (20), and (37) compared to the previous values [5]. - The current values of the spreads 12 - 02, 12 - 04, and 02 - 04 are 91.4, 589.9, and 498.5 respectively, with changes of 25.1, (14.7), and (39.8) compared to the previous values [5]. Spot Price - In late November, NSK quoted 2020, HPL quoted 2850, 00CL quoted 2300, CMA quoted 3150, MSC quoted 2350, HML quoted 2500, YML quoted 2550, and ONE quoted 2650. In early December, MSK quoted 3200, HPL quoted 3250, and ONE quoted 2450 (MSK's final quote in December was 2500) [7]. Contract Trading Rule Adjustment - The last trading day of the container shipping index (European Line) futures EC2602 contract is February 9, 2026. The original pricing cycle was adjusted to two weeks earlier, which is bullish for the EC2602 contract [8]. Other Information - According to the holiday arrangement in 2026, the last trading Monday in February 2026 is February 9 [6][8] - Iran carried out a maritime attack near Oman Bay targeting Israel [6] - The ship CMA CGM JULES VERNE/ MEX1 was scheduled to go around the Cape of Good Hope but actually passed through the Red Sea/Suez Canal [6]
航运衍生品数据日报-20251117
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 06:40
Report Overview - The report is a shipping derivatives data daily report from Guomao Futures Research Institute's Energy and Chemical Research Center [3][4] Shipping Derivatives Data Freight Rate Index - The current values of the comprehensive Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - West Coast of the United States, SCFIS - West Coast of the United States, SCFI - East Coast of the United States, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1451, 1094, 1823, 1329, 2600, 1417, 1504, and 2029 respectively [5] - The previous values are 1495, 1058, 2212, 1208, 2848, 1323, 1208, and 2029 respectively [5] - The percentage changes are -2.92%, 3.39%, -17.59%, 10.02%, -8.71%, 7.11%, 24.50%, and 0.00% respectively [5] Futures Contracts - For futures contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc., the current values, previous values, and percentage changes vary. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1380.7, a previous value of 1364.7, and a percentage change of 1.17% [5] - Regarding the contract positions, the current and previous positions and their changes are also provided. For instance, EC2606's current position is 1623, the previous position is 1567, and the change is 56 [5] - The current values of the monthly spreads (12 - 02, 12 - 04, 02 - 04) are 150.3, 612.0, and 461.7 respectively, with previous values of 112.8, 577.4, and 464.6 and changes of 37.5, 34.6, and -2.9 respectively [5] Market News - The last trading day of the container shipping index (European line) futures EC2602 contract is February 9, 2026 [6] - Iran carried out a reported near - sea attack on Israel in the Gulf of Oman [6] - The ship CMA CGM JULES VERNE/ MEX1, which was scheduled to go around the Cape of Good Hope, is actually heading directly through the Red Sea/Suez Canal [6] Market Analysis - The market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [7] - In late November, the spot prices of different shipping companies vary: MSK quotes 2250, HPL quotes 3150, CMA quotes 3200, YML quotes 250, and OVE quotes 2600, and shipping companies are starting to announce price increases [8] - It is expected that there will be 1 - 2 more price increases during the peak season, but the price increases announced by shipping companies in early December conflict with the current price differentiation in late November. The loading situation in November needs to be monitored to see if it can support the price increases in December. The peak price and time in December are uncertain [8] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [9]
航运衍生品数据日报-20251114
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 08:59
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Red Sea crisis has officially ended after two years as the Yemeni Houthi armed leadership announced the end of attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea [6]. - From 2024 - 2025, shippers were affected by geopolitics and trade wars, but in 2026, with the intensification of supply - demand imbalance, the market will favor shippers, and freight rates will continue to decline [6]. - Maersk emphasizes the advantages of its "twin - star" strategy, with annual cost savings of $720 million - $950 million and a schedule reliability of over 90% [6]. - In November, shipping capacity has recovered, with available capacity on US gateway routes increasing by 10 - 15%, and the overall TPBB route capacity expected to fluctuate between 83% - 88%. Market demand remains healthy after the pre - peak season booking rush [6]. - The EC market shows a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness. The 02 contract had a subsidy - to - premium market due to rumors of early delivery, and the market declined on Wednesday due to the end of Houthi attacks [7]. - Spot prices of different shipping companies show obvious differentiation. Key factors affecting the market include the fulfillment of peak - season demand, the consistency of shipping company strategies, and geopolitical and long - term contract variables. In the short term, the market is likely to remain strongly volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the main contract [8]. 3. Directory Summaries Shipping Index Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), and other related sub - indices are provided, along with their previous values and percentage changes. For example, SCFI decreased by 3.59%, while CCFI increased by 3.60% [3][4]. - **Contract Data**: The current values, previous values, and percentage changes of contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc. are given. For instance, EC2506 increased by 1.17% [3][4][5]. - **Position Data**: The current and previous positions of contracts like EC2606, EC2608, etc., along with their changes, are presented. For example, the position of EC2606 increased by 56 [5]. - **Monthly Spread Data**: The current values, previous values, and changes of monthly spreads such as 12 - 02, 12 - 04, etc. are provided. For example, the 12 - 02 spread increased by 37.5 [5]. Market Analysis and Strategy - **Market Analysis**: The end of the Red Sea crisis, supply - demand imbalance, Maersk's strategy, capacity recovery, and factors affecting spot prices are analyzed [6][7][8]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [9].
航运衍生品数据日报-20251107
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 07:18
Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - The easing of Sino-US trade policies has released positive signals, significantly alleviating the suppression of trans - oceanic cargo volume by trade frictions. Although the direct impact is concentrated on the US routes, it also drives the improvement of European route expectations [6]. - The US - China trade agreement announced this week is expected to prompt some US retailers to accelerate short - term import rhythms, but it is unlikely to lead to a significant adjustment of the supply - chain strategy [6]. - The EC market is in a downward trend, mainly because MSK's late - November quotes are significantly lower than those of other airlines [7]. - Key factors affecting the market include the fulfillment of peak - season demand, the persistence of airline strategies, and geopolitical and long - term agreement variables. In the short term, the market is likely to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, and it is recommended to try to go long on the main contract at low prices [8]. 2. Data Summary Shipping Freight Index | Index | Present Value | Previous Value | Increase/Decrease Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFI | 1551 | 1403 | 10.49% | | CCFI | 1021 | 993 | 2.89% | | SCFI - US West | 2647 | 2153 | 22.94% | | SCFIS - US West | 1208 | 1107 | 9.12% | | SCFI - US East | 3438 | 3032 | 13.39% | | SCFI - Northwest Europe | 1344 | 1246 | 7.87% | | SCFIS - Northwest Europe | 1208 | 1312 | - 7.93% | | SCFI - Mediterranean | 1983 | 1746 | 13.57% | [5] Shipping Derivative Contracts | Contract | Present Value | Previous Value | Increase/Decrease Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2506 | 1414.2 | 1426.1 | - 0.83% | | EC2608 | 1484.0 | 1497.1 | - 0.88% | | EC2610 | 1140.0 | 1142.8 | - 0.25% | | EC2512 | 1848.2 | 1946.0 | - 5.03% | | EC5602 | 1601.0 | 1652.0 | - 3.09% | | EC2604 | 1178.0 | 1199.6 | - 1.80% | [5] Contract Positions | Position | Present Value | Previous Value | Increase/Decrease Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2606 Position | 1455 | 1464 | - 9 | | EC2608 Position | 1306 | 1337 | - 31 | | EC2610 Position | 1432 | 1276 | 156 | | EC2512 Position | 28412 | 34072 | - 5660 | | EC2602 Position | 22625 | 22352 | 273 | | EC2604 Position | 14208 | 14537 | - 329 | [5] Monthly Spread | Spread | Present Value | Previous Value | Increase/Decrease Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 12 - 02 | 247.2 | 294.0 | - 46.8 | | 12 - 04 | 670.2 | 746.4 | - 76.2 | | 02 - 04 | 423.0 | 452.4 | - 29.4 | [5] 3. Market Strategy - The long positions in the December contract can be closed to take profits [9].
航运衍生品数据日报-20251029
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 09:09
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The EC market is in a volatile state. The weak volatility this week is due to some airlines starting to lower their quotes for the first ten days of November. The European line is in the regular year - end price - holding stage. The first round of defensive price - holding in late October has initially stopped the decline, and it has now entered the second round in early November. Future price - holding actions are expected in the next two months. However, attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading conditions, and empty flights in November. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content China Export Container Freight Rates - **Rate Index**: The present values of SCFI - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - Northwest Europe, and the comprehensive index SCFI are 1403, 2153, 3032, 1107, and 1246 respectively, with corresponding increases of 2.02%, 6.27%, 7.11%, 11.21%, and 28.42%. The present values of SCFI - Mediterranean and SCFIS - Northwest Europe are 1312 and 1746 respectively, with increases of 15.09% and 8.25% [3]. Contracts - **Contract Price**: For contracts EC2506, EC5602, EC2608, EC2510, EC2512, the present values are 1482.0, 1374.0, 1788.3, 1548.7, 1162.7 respectively, with changes of - 0.94%, 0.11%, VALUE!, 0.75%, - 1.46% [3][4]. - **Contract Position**: The present positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604 are 1402, 1313, N/A, 28900, 13910, 14279 respectively, with changes of 31, 64, VALUE!, 905, 772, 133 [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The present values of the 10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4 monthly spreads are VALUE!, 239.6, 625.6 respectively, with changes of VALUE!, 36.2, 29.4 [4]. Market News - The US Treasury Secretary has reached a framework agreement with China's vice - premier to avoid 100% US tariffs on Chinese products and extend China's rare - earth export controls. The US President is confident of reaching an agreement with China's leader [5]. - Some shipping companies like CMA CGM, Maersk, and Mediterranean Shipping are re - flagging their vessels to India. The Suez Canal Authority expects its 2026 revenue to reach about $8 billion, up from the current $4 billion. The US and Vietnam have agreed on a trade framework agreement [5]. EC Market - **Spot Prices**: In late October, Maersk quoted 1800 - 1900, HPL 1900, 00CL 2600, CMA 2100, EMC 2050, NSC 2050, YML 1350, ONE 1450. In early November, ISK quoted 2400, HEJ 2500, CME 2700, OOCJ 2300, EMC 2700, MSC 2250, YML 2250, ONE 2550, HMM 1900 [6]. - **Logic and Strategy**: The European line is in the year - end price - holding stage. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6][7].
航运衍生品数据日报-20251028
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 07:32
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The EC market is in a downward trend mainly due to some airlines starting to lower quotes for the first ten days of November. The European line is in the regular year - end price - holding stage, with the first attempt in late October showing initial results in stopping the decline, and it has entered the second round in early November. Future price - holding attempts are expected in the next two months. The strategy is to wait and see, and future attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading conditions, and empty flights in November [5][6] Summary by Relevant Information Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 1403, a previous value of 1310, and a change of 7.11%. For different routes, SCFI - US West has a current value of 2153, a change of 11.21%; SCFIS - US West has a current value of 1107, a change of 28.42%; SCFI - US East has a current value of 3032, a change of 6.27%; SCFI - Northwest Europe has a current value of 1246, a change of 8.82%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe has a current value of 1312, a change of 15.09%; SCFI - Mediterranean has a current value of 1746, a change of 8.25%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) has a previous value of 973, with a change of - 100.00% [3] - **Contracts**: For contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc., most show a downward trend in price. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1387.1, a previous value of 1397.9, and a change of - 0.77% [3] - **Positions**: There are changes in positions for different contracts. For example, EC2606 position has a current value of 1371, a previous value of 1377, and a change of (6) [3] - **Monthly Spreads**: The 10 - 12 monthly spread has a current value of - 644.1, a previous value of - 693.2, and a change of 49.1; the 12 - 2 monthly spread has a current value of 203.4, a previous value of 230.0, and a change of (26.6); the 12 - 4 monthly spread has a current value of 596.2, a previous value of 651.4, and a change of (55.2) [3] Market News - The US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he reached a "very substantial framework agreement" with Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng, which will avoid 100% US tariffs on Chinese products and extend China's rare - earth export controls. US President Donald Trump is confident of reaching an agreement with Chinese leaders after the Sino - US high - level economic officials' trade consultations [4] - CMA CGM, Maersk, and Mediterranean Shipping have started to re - flag some ships to India. India's shipping policies attract shipping orders and ship registrations, while the US's shipping revitalization in 2025 has weaker results [4] - The Suez Canal Authority expects its 2026 revenue to reach about $8 billion, up from the current about $4 billion as the regional situation stabilizes and ship traffic returns to pre - crisis levels [4] - The US and Vietnam have agreed to establish a "reciprocal, fair, and balanced trade framework agreement" to strengthen bilateral economic relations and provide market access for exporters [4] EC Market - **Spot Prices**: In late October, Maersk quoted 1800 - 1900, HPL quoted 1900, 00CL quoted 2600, etc. In early November, ISK quoted 2400, HPL quoted 2500, etc., with some prices showing changes [5] - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6]
航运衍生品数据日报-20251016
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 14:56
Group 1: Shipping Derivatives Data Shipping Freight Index - The current values of the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - West America, SCFIS - West America, SCFI - East America, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1115, 1087, 1460, 862, 2385, 971, 1031, and 1485 respectively, with daily changes of -6.97%, -2.93%, -10.76%, -1.60%, -6.73%, -7.70%, -1.43%, and -9.34% [5]. Futures Contracts - For contracts EC2506, EC2608, EC2510, EC2512, EC5602, and EC2604, the current values are 1306.6, 1450.2, 1120.6, 1708.6, 1463.4, and 1142.0 respectively, with daily changes of -0.93%, 0.01%, -1.37%, 2.06%, -0.07%, and -0.70% [5]. Contract Positions - The current positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 are 1510, 1115, 11335, 27023, 9822, and 13676 respectively, with daily changes of (31), 14, (1820), (168), 112, and 310 [5]. Monthly Spreads - The current values of the 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 monthly spreads are -588.0, 245.2, and 566.6 respectively, with daily changes of (50.1), 35.5, and 42.5 [5]. Group 2: Market News - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese - origin goods starting from November 1 [5]. - China announced new restrictions on rare - earth and related technology exports and released a new version of the "unreliable entity list" targeting US defense technology companies [5]. - On October 9, Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had reached a peace agreement, with Israel partially withdrawing from Gaza and Hamas releasing remaining hostages [5]. - US customs documents on October 11 outlined new tariffs on certain Chinese products effective from October 14 [5]. - After signing the Gaza agreement, Netanyahu threatened to restart the war if Israel's demands were not met peacefully, and the Israeli middle - level negotiation delegation will stay in Egypt to promote the second - stage agreement [5]. - Trump is expected to visit Israel next Monday, with a "in - and - out" short - visit due to security concerns [5][6]. Group 3: EC Market Analysis Market Overview - The EC market showed a strong and volatile trend. In late October, the overall price increase was called for in the range of 1800 - 2000 (finally settled at 1500 - 1800), and the price increase notice for November is around 2500 [7]. Market Logic - The EC market rebounded significantly due to the Ministry of Commerce's counter - measures against 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. [8]. - These 5 US subsidiaries include one involved in container ship manufacturing, mainly building 2000 - 3000TEU small container ships for Matson's West America route, with little connection to the European route [9]. - Hanwha Shipyard currently has 790,000 TEU of shipping capacity serving the European route, and although these ships are not currently in the sanctions scope, the policy is unclear, and the sanctions scope may expand if Sino - US confrontation escalates [9]. Investment Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [10].
航运衍生品数据日报-20250916
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 05:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The EC market showed a slight rebound. The main reason is that the 12 - contract was supported by factors such as the suspension of China - Europe freight trains, the expectation of National Day sailings suspension, and price - supporting factors, and performed strongly on Monday. The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and conduct a rolling 10 - 12 reverse spread [8][9][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Index**: The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1398, a decrease of 3.21% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1125, a decrease of 2.07%. The SCFI - US West increased by 8.27%, SCFIS - US West increased by 37.65%, SCFI - US East increased by 7.61%, and SCFI - Northwest Europe decreased by 12.24%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe decreased by 8.05%, and SCFI - Mediterranean decreased by 11.82% [6]. - **Contract Data**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc., their current values have varying degrees of increase compared to the previous values, with涨幅 ranging from 0.48% to 3.21%. In terms of positions, the positions of some contracts have increased or decreased slightly [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The current value of the 10 - 12 monthly spread is - 493.1, a decrease of 40.5 from the previous value; the 12 - 2 monthly spread is 139.3, an increase of 29.9; the 12 - 4 monthly spread is 402.3, an increase of 22.5 [6]. 3.2 Spot Price - The GEMINI price in late September dropped to 1600, QA dropped to 1800, PA dropped to 1700, and MSC dropped to 1750. The PAK freight rate center in the market in late September is around 1750 [10]. 3.3 Market Logic - In the European - line shipping market, the fundamental cargo volume is deduced based on EPMI data. The cargo volume will bottom out in October and turn around in November. In terms of freight rates, shipping companies will "compete for goods" from the end of September to late October, but the "ROLLINGPOOL" strategy in the off - season may intensify the decline of freight rates. It is expected that the offline freight rates will fall back to the low point in May this year in late October, and shipping companies will start signing contracts to support prices after the cargo volume recovers in November. In terms of capacity, some of the capacity suspended during the National Day will not resume after the holiday, but the impact of reducing ships in the off - season on the market is limited [10].
航运衍生品数据日报-20250912
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 12:20
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping market shows a downward trend. The spot freight rates are still falling, and there is a possibility of further price drops in September. The shift of some US - bound ships to European routes increases supply and further pressures freight rates. The recommended strategy is to go short on the October contract and roll the 10 - 12 reverse spread [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 0.04% to 1444, and the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) decreased by 0.62% to 1149. The SCFI - US West increased by 13.83% to 2189, SCFIS - US West decreased by 3.26% to 980, SCFI - US East increased by 7.22% to 3073, and SCFI - Northwest Europe decreased by 11.21% to 1315. SCFIS - Northwest Europe decreased by 11.68% to 1566, and SCFI - Mediterranean decreased by 8.11% to 1971 [4]. - **Contracts**: All shipping contracts showed a downward trend. For example, EC2506 decreased by 0.92% to 1430.6, EC2608 decreased by 0.31% to 1595.0 [4]. - **Positions**: The positions of some contracts increased. For example, EC2606 positions increased by 6 to 963, and EC2410 positions increased by 2187 to 49507 [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 10 - 12 monthly spread increased by 1.3 to - 405.3, the 12 - 2 monthly spread decreased by 38.3 to 111.7, and the 12 - 4 monthly spread decreased by 60.9 to 367.1 [4]. Market News - **Trade Shift**: Tariffs are accelerating the shift of China's trade focus. Southeast Asia and Africa have become the main growth points. From January to July 2025, the number of direct sailings from China to Vietnam increased by 22% year - on - year, and the monthly number exceeded 300 since March, setting a record. However, if US demand weakens, Southeast Asian exports will be affected, which will reduce the demand for Chinese intermediate goods [5]. - **Transport Season**: The peak season for China - US cargo transportation usually lasts until October, but this year's peak occurred in July [5]. - **Shipping Company Policies**: CMA CGM will not charge shippers additional port fees for using Chinese - built container ships on US routes and will not reduce the coverage of US port calls. The Gemini's TP9/WC6 trans - Pacific route will be completely suspended in the fourth quarter of 2025 [5]. EC Market - **Market Review**: The market is in a downward trend. The GEMINI price in mid - September dropped to 1800. The market FMK freight rate center in mid - September was at 1850 [6]. - **Logic**: Maersk's opening price for the new week (wk39) dropped to 1550, a decrease of 150 compared to the previous week. OOCL dropped to 1600, and there is a possibility of further price drops in September. With the cooling of market optimism and the focus on spot quotes, the spot freight rates are still falling. Before the National Day on October 1st, the competition for goods may cause freight rates to continue to decline in the second half of September [7]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to go short on the October contract and roll the 10 - 12 reverse spread [8].
航运衍生品数据日报-20250812
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 09:43
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The shipping market is in a state of weak oscillation. The main reason is that Maersk's freight rate at the end of August dropped to 2200, a decrease of 400 from last week, exceeding market expectations. The spot freight rate has peaked, and the subsequent focus is on the decline slope until the end of October. The freight rate on the European route is under pressure, and it is expected to break through 2000 in September [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Shipping Freight Index - **Current and Previous Values and Changes**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCEI) is currently at 1490, down 3.94% from the previous value of 1551; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1201, down 2.59% from 1233. Rates on various routes such as SCFI - West US, SCFI - East US, and SCFI - Northwest Europe also showed significant declines [4]. - **Other Routes**: SCFIS - Northwest Europe is currently at 2235, down 2.70% from 2297; SCFI - Mediterranean is at 2318, down 0.64% from 2333 [4]. Shipping Derivatives - **Contract Prices**: For contracts like EC2506, EC2508, etc., prices showed different degrees of change, with some rising and some falling. For example, EC2506 rose 0.44% to 1497.1 from 1490.5 [4]. - **Open Interest**: Open interest for contracts such as EC2606, EC2508 also changed. For instance, EC2606 open interest decreased by 30 to 770 from 800 [4]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months (10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4) also changed. For example, the 10 - 12 spread decreased by 17.2 to -341.2 from -324.0 [4]. Market News - **Policy and Geopolitics**: The US and China need to decide whether to extend the current tariff suspension agreement by August 12. Trump threatened to impose higher tariffs on countries buying Russian oil. Trump will meet with Putin in Alaska on August 15 [5]. - **Industry Developments**: South Korea plans to conduct pilot operations on the "Northern Sea Route" starting in 2026. Three Chinese small - market carriers will offer several voyages on this route in late summer 2025. The latest Global Port Tracker (GPT) report shows that US imports in the last four months of 2025 will decline significantly year - on - year [5]. Strategy - The recommended strategy is to short the October contract on rallies (take profit gradually as it has pulled back recently) and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [8].