Group 1: Shipping Derivatives Data Shipping Freight Index - The current values of the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - West America, SCFIS - West America, SCFI - East America, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1115, 1087, 1460, 862, 2385, 971, 1031, and 1485 respectively, with daily changes of -6.97%, -2.93%, -10.76%, -1.60%, -6.73%, -7.70%, -1.43%, and -9.34% [5]. Futures Contracts - For contracts EC2506, EC2608, EC2510, EC2512, EC5602, and EC2604, the current values are 1306.6, 1450.2, 1120.6, 1708.6, 1463.4, and 1142.0 respectively, with daily changes of -0.93%, 0.01%, -1.37%, 2.06%, -0.07%, and -0.70% [5]. Contract Positions - The current positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 are 1510, 1115, 11335, 27023, 9822, and 13676 respectively, with daily changes of (31), 14, (1820), (168), 112, and 310 [5]. Monthly Spreads - The current values of the 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 monthly spreads are -588.0, 245.2, and 566.6 respectively, with daily changes of (50.1), 35.5, and 42.5 [5]. Group 2: Market News - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese - origin goods starting from November 1 [5]. - China announced new restrictions on rare - earth and related technology exports and released a new version of the "unreliable entity list" targeting US defense technology companies [5]. - On October 9, Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had reached a peace agreement, with Israel partially withdrawing from Gaza and Hamas releasing remaining hostages [5]. - US customs documents on October 11 outlined new tariffs on certain Chinese products effective from October 14 [5]. - After signing the Gaza agreement, Netanyahu threatened to restart the war if Israel's demands were not met peacefully, and the Israeli middle - level negotiation delegation will stay in Egypt to promote the second - stage agreement [5]. - Trump is expected to visit Israel next Monday, with a "in - and - out" short - visit due to security concerns [5][6]. Group 3: EC Market Analysis Market Overview - The EC market showed a strong and volatile trend. In late October, the overall price increase was called for in the range of 1800 - 2000 (finally settled at 1500 - 1800), and the price increase notice for November is around 2500 [7]. Market Logic - The EC market rebounded significantly due to the Ministry of Commerce's counter - measures against 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. [8]. - These 5 US subsidiaries include one involved in container ship manufacturing, mainly building 2000 - 3000TEU small container ships for Matson's West America route, with little connection to the European route [9]. - Hanwha Shipyard currently has 790,000 TEU of shipping capacity serving the European route, and although these ships are not currently in the sanctions scope, the policy is unclear, and the sanctions scope may expand if Sino - US confrontation escalates [9]. Investment Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The EC market showed a slight rebound. The main reason is that the 12 - contract was supported by factors such as the suspension of China - Europe freight trains, the expectation of National Day sailings suspension, and price - supporting factors, and performed strongly on Monday. The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and conduct a rolling 10 - 12 reverse spread [8][9][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Index**: The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1398, a decrease of 3.21% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1125, a decrease of 2.07%. The SCFI - US West increased by 8.27%, SCFIS - US West increased by 37.65%, SCFI - US East increased by 7.61%, and SCFI - Northwest Europe decreased by 12.24%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe decreased by 8.05%, and SCFI - Mediterranean decreased by 11.82% [6]. - **Contract Data**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc., their current values have varying degrees of increase compared to the previous values, with涨幅 ranging from 0.48% to 3.21%. In terms of positions, the positions of some contracts have increased or decreased slightly [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The current value of the 10 - 12 monthly spread is - 493.1, a decrease of 40.5 from the previous value; the 12 - 2 monthly spread is 139.3, an increase of 29.9; the 12 - 4 monthly spread is 402.3, an increase of 22.5 [6]. 3.2 Spot Price - The GEMINI price in late September dropped to 1600, QA dropped to 1800, PA dropped to 1700, and MSC dropped to 1750. The PAK freight rate center in the market in late September is around 1750 [10]. 3.3 Market Logic - In the European - line shipping market, the fundamental cargo volume is deduced based on EPMI data. The cargo volume will bottom out in October and turn around in November. In terms of freight rates, shipping companies will "compete for goods" from the end of September to late October, but the "ROLLINGPOOL" strategy in the off - season may intensify the decline of freight rates. It is expected that the offline freight rates will fall back to the low point in May this year in late October, and shipping companies will start signing contracts to support prices after the cargo volume recovers in November. In terms of capacity, some of the capacity suspended during the National Day will not resume after the holiday, but the impact of reducing ships in the off - season on the market is limited [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping market shows a downward trend. The spot freight rates are still falling, and there is a possibility of further price drops in September. The shift of some US - bound ships to European routes increases supply and further pressures freight rates. The recommended strategy is to go short on the October contract and roll the 10 - 12 reverse spread [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 0.04% to 1444, and the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) decreased by 0.62% to 1149. The SCFI - US West increased by 13.83% to 2189, SCFIS - US West decreased by 3.26% to 980, SCFI - US East increased by 7.22% to 3073, and SCFI - Northwest Europe decreased by 11.21% to 1315. SCFIS - Northwest Europe decreased by 11.68% to 1566, and SCFI - Mediterranean decreased by 8.11% to 1971 [4]. - **Contracts**: All shipping contracts showed a downward trend. For example, EC2506 decreased by 0.92% to 1430.6, EC2608 decreased by 0.31% to 1595.0 [4]. - **Positions**: The positions of some contracts increased. For example, EC2606 positions increased by 6 to 963, and EC2410 positions increased by 2187 to 49507 [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 10 - 12 monthly spread increased by 1.3 to - 405.3, the 12 - 2 monthly spread decreased by 38.3 to 111.7, and the 12 - 4 monthly spread decreased by 60.9 to 367.1 [4]. Market News - **Trade Shift**: Tariffs are accelerating the shift of China's trade focus. Southeast Asia and Africa have become the main growth points. From January to July 2025, the number of direct sailings from China to Vietnam increased by 22% year - on - year, and the monthly number exceeded 300 since March, setting a record. However, if US demand weakens, Southeast Asian exports will be affected, which will reduce the demand for Chinese intermediate goods [5]. - **Transport Season**: The peak season for China - US cargo transportation usually lasts until October, but this year's peak occurred in July [5]. - **Shipping Company Policies**: CMA CGM will not charge shippers additional port fees for using Chinese - built container ships on US routes and will not reduce the coverage of US port calls. The Gemini's TP9/WC6 trans - Pacific route will be completely suspended in the fourth quarter of 2025 [5]. EC Market - **Market Review**: The market is in a downward trend. The GEMINI price in mid - September dropped to 1800. The market FMK freight rate center in mid - September was at 1850 [6]. - **Logic**: Maersk's opening price for the new week (wk39) dropped to 1550, a decrease of 150 compared to the previous week. OOCL dropped to 1600, and there is a possibility of further price drops in September. With the cooling of market optimism and the focus on spot quotes, the spot freight rates are still falling. Before the National Day on October 1st, the competition for goods may cause freight rates to continue to decline in the second half of September [7]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to go short on the October contract and roll the 10 - 12 reverse spread [8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The shipping market is in a state of weak oscillation. The main reason is that Maersk's freight rate at the end of August dropped to 2200, a decrease of 400 from last week, exceeding market expectations. The spot freight rate has peaked, and the subsequent focus is on the decline slope until the end of October. The freight rate on the European route is under pressure, and it is expected to break through 2000 in September [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Shipping Freight Index - **Current and Previous Values and Changes**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCEI) is currently at 1490, down 3.94% from the previous value of 1551; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1201, down 2.59% from 1233. Rates on various routes such as SCFI - West US, SCFI - East US, and SCFI - Northwest Europe also showed significant declines [4]. - **Other Routes**: SCFIS - Northwest Europe is currently at 2235, down 2.70% from 2297; SCFI - Mediterranean is at 2318, down 0.64% from 2333 [4]. Shipping Derivatives - **Contract Prices**: For contracts like EC2506, EC2508, etc., prices showed different degrees of change, with some rising and some falling. For example, EC2506 rose 0.44% to 1497.1 from 1490.5 [4]. - **Open Interest**: Open interest for contracts such as EC2606, EC2508 also changed. For instance, EC2606 open interest decreased by 30 to 770 from 800 [4]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months (10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4) also changed. For example, the 10 - 12 spread decreased by 17.2 to -341.2 from -324.0 [4]. Market News - **Policy and Geopolitics**: The US and China need to decide whether to extend the current tariff suspension agreement by August 12. Trump threatened to impose higher tariffs on countries buying Russian oil. Trump will meet with Putin in Alaska on August 15 [5]. - **Industry Developments**: South Korea plans to conduct pilot operations on the "Northern Sea Route" starting in 2026. Three Chinese small - market carriers will offer several voyages on this route in late summer 2025. The latest Global Port Tracker (GPT) report shows that US imports in the last four months of 2025 will decline significantly year - on - year [5]. Strategy - The recommended strategy is to short the October contract on rallies (take profit gradually as it has pulled back recently) and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is in a state of shock, mainly due to the increase in over - capacity during the off - season caused by overtime ships, leading to a lower opening of the main contract [6]. - Spot prices have peaked. Quotes started to weaken in early August, and this will drive prices in late August to decline. It is expected that spot prices will peak at the end of July and early August, then slowly decline until late August when the decline rate will intensify. The main focus of the 10 - contract is the decline rate of freight rates from August to October [7]. - The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies (profits can be taken as there has been a significant recent correction), and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [8]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Contents Shipping Freight Index - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI)**: The current value is 1551, the previous value was 1593, with a decline of 2.63% [3][4]. - **China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI)**: The current value is 1233, the previous value was 1261, with a decline of 2.27% [3][4]. - **SCFI - US West Coast**: The current value is 2021, the previous value was 2067, with a decline of 2.23% [3][4]. - **SCFIS - US West Coast**: The current value is 1130, the previous value was 1284, with a sharp decline of 11.99% [3][4]. - **SCFI - US East Coast**: The current value is 3126, the previous value was 3378, with a decline of 7.46% [3][4]. - **SCFI - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 2051, the previous value was 2090, with a decline of 1.87% [3][4]. - **SCFIS - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 2297, the previous value was 2316, with a decline of 0.82% [3][4]. - **SCFI - Mediterranean**: The current value is 2333, the previous value was 2418, with a decline of 3.52% [3][4]. EC Contracts Price - **EC2506**: The current value is 1453.2, the previous value was 1465.1, with a decline of 0.81% [3][4]. - **EC2508**: The current value is 2122.3, the previous value was 2126.5, with a decline of 0.20% [3][4]. - **EC2510**: The current value is 1421.8, the previous value was 1424.0, with a decline of 0.15% [3][4]. - **EC2512**: The current value is 1677.2, the previous value was 1692.4, with a decline of 0.90% [3][4]. - **EC5602**: The current value is 1470.2, the previous value was 1490.0, with a decline of 1.33% [3][4]. - **EC2604**: The current value is 1315.1, the previous value was 1325.0, with a decline of 0.75% [3][4]. Position - **EC2606 Position**: The current value is 795, the same as the previous value, with a change of 0 [3][4]. - **EC2508 Position**: The current value is 4367, the previous value was 4465, with a decline of 98 [3][4]. - **EC2410 Position**: The current value is 51053, the previous value was 52376, with a decline of 1323 [3][4]. - **EC2412 Position**: The current value is 8387, the previous value was 8440, with a decline of 53 [3][4]. - **EC2602 Position**: The current value is 4139, the previous value was 4142, with a decline of 3 [3][4]. - **EC2604 Position**: The current value is 5146, the previous value was 5112, with an increase of 34 [3][4]. Monthly Spread - **10 - 12 Spread**: The current value is - 255.4, the previous value was - 268.4, with an increase of 13.0 [3][4]. - **12 - 2 Spread**: The current value is 207.0, the previous value was 202.4, with an increase of 4.6 [3][4]. - **12 - 4 Spread**: The current value is 362.1, the previous value was 367.4, with a decline of 5.3 [3][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The main reasons for the significant increase in the 10 and far - month contracts are the change of the main contract from 2508 to 2510, better - than - expected spot market and European port congestion, and some assistance from geopolitical factors. The current situation of European routes is stable reality and weak expectation. After the repair of deep discount on the disk, investors should not chase high. The recommended strategy is to short 10 contracts on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **Container Freight Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) stood at 1733, down 1.71% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) was 1314, down 2.18%. Among different routes, SCFI - US West increased by 5.03%, SCFIS - US West decreased by 18.69%, SCFI - US East rose by 1.16%, SCFI - Northwest Europe dropped by 0.10%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe increased by 7.22%, and SCFI - Mediterranean decreased by 7.04% [3]. - **EC Contracts**: The EC contracts generally showed a trend of decline. For example, EC2506 decreased by 2.42%, EC2508 increased by 1.27%, EC2510 decreased by 3.47%, EC2512 decreased by 4.19%, EC5602 decreased by 3.50%, and EC2604 decreased by 2.90%. In terms of positions, there were increases and decreases in different contracts. For example, EC2606 position increased by 4, EC2508 position decreased by 2808, EC2410 position increased by 3849, etc. The month - spread also changed, with the 10 - 12 month - spread increasing by 84.5, the 12 - 2 month - spread increasing by 19.5, and the 12 - 4 month - spread decreasing by 38.8 [3]. Market News - **Geopolitical News**: Protests broke out in Israel demanding a hostage agreement. Israel accepted a 60 - day cease - fire and hostage release draft proposed by Qatar, but Hamas rejected it. The core of the deadlock is the map parameters for the Israeli army's withdrawal from Gaza. Israel will propose a new map plan next Monday [4]. - **Shipping Market News**: MSK opened bookings for wk31 at a flat price of 3000. Some 0A ships' offline sailings can guarantee cabins, have long - free timeliness, and allow for off - site container returns at the destination port. MSK has some single - point cabin space on European routes. For PA7 at the end of the month, some special - price cabins for matching goods still need to be booked in advance, and the overall cabin space at the end of the month is abundant. European port congestion has not been alleviated due to factors such as labor shortages, strikes at the Port of Antwerp, low Rhine River water levels, and increased risks in the Red Sea route [5][6][7][8]. EC Market - **Market Review**: The market declined. The EC2510 contract rose by more than 16% again yesterday, with a cumulative increase of more than 20% in two days [9]. - **Reasons for the Increase**: The main reasons for the significant increase in the 10 and far - month contracts are the change of the main contract, better - than - expected spot market and European port congestion, and some assistance from geopolitical factors [10][11]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: There may still be a rush to ship in July. The current situation of European routes is stable reality and weak expectation. The spot market is expected to enter an arc - top trend from late July to early August. The recommended strategy is to short 10 contracts on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [11][12].

Shipping Derivatives Data Freight Index - The current values of Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1862, 1369, 2578, 161, 4717, 2030, 2123, and 2985 respectively [4]. - The previous values are 1870, 1342, 2772, 2083, 5352, 1835, 1937, and 3063 respectively [4]. - The percentage changes are -0.43%, 2.00%, -7.00%, -22.28%, -11.86%, 10.63%, 9.60%, and -2.55% respectively [4]. Contracts - The current values of contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC5602, and EC2604 are 1319.9, 1896.9, 1363.9, 1538.7, 1338.7, and 1172.9 respectively [4]. - The previous values are 1310.0, 1883.5, 1367.9, 1528.0, 1325.2, and 1174.2 respectively [4]. - The percentage changes are 0.76%, 0.71%, -0.29%, 0.70%, 1.02%, and -0.11% respectively [4]. Positions - The current positions of EC2606, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 are 371, 35947, 31361, 2008, 3781, and 5782 respectively [4]. - The previous positions are 352, 36332, 31302, 6171, 3812, and 5682 respectively [4]. - The changes in positions are 19, -385, 59, -4163, -31, and 100 respectively [4]. Monthly Spreads - The current monthly spreads of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 are 533.0, -174.8, and 365.8 respectively [4]. - The previous monthly spreads are 515.6, -160.1, and 353.8 respectively [4]. - The changes in monthly spreads are 17.4, -14.7, and 12.0 respectively [4]. Market News - After the JOLTS data release, traders slightly reduced the expected magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cut. A rate cut is expected to start in September, with a 21% probability of a cut in July [4]. - The White House said that Trump may extend the 90 - day tariff suspension period in July [5]. - US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam General Secretary Su Lin, reducing US tariffs on Vietnamese products to 20% in exchange for full access to the Vietnamese market [5]. - Fed Chairman Powell said that a "substantial majority" of Fed members expect to cut interest rates later this year [6]. - Trump's tariff policy and low river levels have caused the worst supply - chain congestion at European ports since the pandemic, especially in Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg, expected to last for at least several months [6]. - US officials are seeking phased agreements with countries actively involved in trade negotiations, aiming for an agreement by July 9 [7]. EC Market Analysis Overview - The market is in a volatile state [8]. Spot Market - The central price in the second week of July is about 3200 (ranging from 2900 - 3600). Maersk's price remained flat in the third week, higher than the expected decline [9]. - There is a market differentiation. Some OCEAN Alliance routes have strong quotes, and the PA Alliance plans to raise prices later this month, but some shipping companies report reduced inventory [9]. - From IPL quotes, there is sufficient cabin space, and shipping companies are still trying to attract cargo [9]. Futures Market - Affected by Maersk's flat price, contract 2508 has recovered from a deep discount, but the probability of continuous rise is low, and it will mainly fluctuate [10]. Strategy - Hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread and consider the 8 - 10 calendar spread. Due to less shipping capacity in weeks 28 and 30, Maersk's strong performance in week 3 of July, and expected European congestion, contract 08 may outperform contract 10 [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current EC08 contract on the trading board is at a discount to the spot price, and attention should be paid to the potential logic of Scenario 2. This year, the European route trading is prone to a cycle of "front - running - logic reinforcement - losses". It is recommended to value the "error - tolerance" space of far - month contracts, formulate far - month positive spread strategies based on historical delivery data, and avoid over - relying on short - term sentiment. [9] - The trading on the board returns to fundamental drivers, with trading centered around the expectation of the peak season transitioning to the off - season. As the end of the tariff suspension period approaches, some airlines expect to raise prices in late July. [9][10] - Hold the 12 - 4 positive spread strategy. [11] 3. Summary by Related Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently at 1862, down 0.43% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1369, up 2.00%. SCFI - US West is at 2578, down 7.00%; SCFIS - US West is at 1619, down 22.28%; SCFI - US East is at 4717, down 11.86%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is at 2030, up 10.63%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe is at 2123, up 9.60%; SCFI - Mediterranean is at 2985, down 2.55%. [4] - **Contracts**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2508, etc., the current values and their percentage changes are provided. For example, EC2508 is currently at 1904.9, up 8.15% from the previous value. [4] - **Open Interest**: The current open interest and its changes for contracts like EC2606, EC2508, etc. are given. For instance, the current open interest of EC2508 is 40476, an increase of 1248 from the previous value. [4] - **Monthly Spread**: The current monthly spreads (10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4) and their changes are presented. For example, the 10 - 12 monthly spread is currently 521.1, up 98.7 from the previous value. [4] Market News - After the JOLTS data was released, traders slightly reduced the expected magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cuts, expecting the cuts to start in September, with a 21% probability of a cut in July. [5] - The White House stated that Trump may extend the 90 - day tariff suspension period in July. Trump plans to visit China with dozens of CEOs. Fed Chairman Powell said that a "substantial majority" of Fed members expect to cut interest rates later this year. [6] - According to the Financial Times, Trump's tariff policy and falling river levels have led to the worst supply - chain congestion in European ports since the pandemic, especially in Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg, and the congestion is expected to last for at least several months. [7] - Iran's ambassador to the UN stated that Tehran "will never stop" uranium - enrichment activities, emphasizing it as an inalienable right and national sovereignty under the NPT. [7] Market Conditions and Strategies for EC Contracts - **Market Conditions**: The spot freight rates have been rising this week. The quotes for European basic ports in late June are 2,800 - 3,200 US dollars per 40 - foot container, and the upward trend is expected to continue until mid - July. For the 7 - 8 month European route freight rates, there are three scenarios: a collapse - style decline if a large amount of US - bound capacity shifts to the European route; an "arc - top" trend if shipping companies control capacity; and global capacity misallocation due to unexpected factors. [8] - **Trading Strategies**: Given that the EC08 contract on the board is at a discount to the spot price, attention should be paid to the potential logic of Scenario 2. It is recommended to formulate far - month positive spread strategies based on historical delivery data and hold the 12 - 4 positive spread. [9][11]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The market is in a state of oscillation. Spot prices are showing an upward trend, with shipping companies gradually increasing their quotes. The forward freight rates in Europe continue to rise, and it is expected that the upward trend will continue until mid - to late July. The freight rates on the US route in the futures market declined last week, while the European route did not follow the decline due to its own peak - season pattern. For the European route freight rates from July to August, there are three possible scenarios: the spill - over of US route capacity, shipping companies controlling capacity to stabilize prices, and interference from unexpected factors. In terms of trading strategies, attention should be paid to the potential logic of the second scenario, and a far - month positive spread strategy should be formulated with reference to historical delivery data [8][9]. 3. Key Points by Section Freight Index Data - **Spot Freight Index**: The current values of the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) and the China Export Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) are 1870 and 1342 respectively, with the former down 10.47% and the latter up 8.00% compared to the previous values. The freight rates on different routes also show different trends, such as a significant decline on the US West and US East routes, and an increase on the European routes [4]. - **Forward Freight Index**: The current values of different forward contracts (e.g., EC2506, EC2508) show fluctuations, with some contracts down and some up compared to the previous values. The positions of different contracts also change, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The current values of the 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 month - to - month spreads are 505.0, - 160.1, and 320.3 respectively, with corresponding changes compared to the previous values [4]. Spot Market - In late June, leading airlines are eager to raise prices. The offline quotes of COSCO, CMA, ONE, MSC, Maersk, and HPL are different, and the European base - port quotes in late June have reached 2,800 - 3,200 US dollars/40 - foot container, with the upward trend expected to continue until mid - to late July. The July quotes of different shipping companies are also different, and Maersk has adjusted the freight rate to Rotterdam in early July [8]. Futures Market - Last week, the freight rates on the US route in the futures market declined, while the European route did not follow the decline due to its peak - season pattern. The European route futures show a "front - running" characteristic, and there are three scenarios for the European route freight rates from July to August [8]. Trading Strategy - Currently, the ECO8 futures price is at a discount to the spot price. Attention should be paid to the potential logic of the second scenario. A far - month positive spread strategy should be formulated with reference to historical delivery data, and the 12 - 4 positive spread should be held [9][10].

Group 1: Report Summary - Report title: Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report [4] - Date: June 19, 2025 [5] - Analyst: Lu Zhaoyi from the Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [5] - Investment advisory number: Z0021177 [5] - Qualification number: F03101843 [5] - Data sources: Clarksons, Wind [5] Group 2: Shipping Index Data Freight Rate Index - **SCFI Composite Index**: Current value is 2088, previous value was 2240, a decline of 6.79% [5] - **CCFI Index**: Current value is 1243, previous value was 1155, an increase of 7.63% [5] - **SCFI - US West**: Current value is 4120, previous value was 5606, a decline of 26.51% [5] - **SCFIS - US West**: Current value is 2908, previous value was 2185, an increase of 33.08% [5] - **SCFI - US East**: Current value is 6745, previous value was 6939, a decline of 2.80% [5] - **SCFI - Northwest Europe**: Current value is 1844, previous value was 1667, an increase of 10.62% [5] - **SCFIS - Northwest Europe**: Current value is 1697, previous value was 1623, an increase of 4.57% [5] - **SCFI - Mediterranean**: Current value is 3190, previous value was 3302, a decline of 3.39% [5] Contract Data - **Contract Prices**: For contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, the current values are 1901.8, 2038.0, 1416.1, 1611.0, 1431.5, 1240.4 respectively, with corresponding changes of -1.68%, 0.39%, 0.10%, -0.01%, -1.52%, -2.61% compared to the previous values [5] - **Contract Holdings**: For contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, EC2604, the current holdings are 4668, 44501, 28998, 6225, 2901, 3682 respectively, with corresponding changes of -536, 843, -240, -107, -230, 122 compared to the previous values [5] - **Monthly Spreads**: The current values of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4 spreads are 621.9, -194.9, 370.6 respectively, with corresponding changes of 6.6, 1.6, 33.1 compared to the previous values [5] Group 3: Market Analysis Spot Market - **Late - June Price Hike**: Leading airlines are considering price hikes in late June. For example, COSCO's offline quote is 4200, CMA's is 4250, ONE's is 3000, MSC plans to raise prices to 3900 (offline 3250), Maersk's opening price from Shanghai to London is 2800 (to Rotterdam is 2820), and HPL's is 3500 [10] - **Current Week's Freight Rates**: Spot freight rates have been rising this week. Quotes for European base ports in late June have reached $2,800 - 3,200 per 40 - foot container, and the upward trend is expected to continue until mid - to - late July. The increase in spot freight rates is expected to intensify logistics chain pressure in late June and drive up the booking rate of long - term contracts. Shipping companies are tightening the policy of releasing low - price contracts [10] - **Early - July Quotes**: MSK quotes 3400 for July, HPL quotes 4350, CMA quotes 4650, and ONE quotes 4000 [10] Futures Market - **Market Trend**: The market is in a volatile state [9] - **Influence of Geopolitical Conflicts**: Geopolitical conflicts, although having a limited direct impact on supply and demand, have triggered a chain reaction that has become an important driving force for the increase in container shipping market freight rates, such as the rise in marine fuel oil costs and insurance premiums. Airlines will take advantage of this to try to raise freight rates in July. The most important factor for the European route is that the full resumption time of alliance shipping companies has been further postponed, and the sentiment from August to December will be most positively affected [10] Group 4: Strategy - Hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [11]