Core Viewpoint - Increasing number of foreign trade export enterprises and freight forwarding companies are attempting to use futures for hedging and risk management [1][2] Group 1: Shipping Derivatives Market - Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) aims to enhance the shipping derivatives system and improve financial services in the shipping sector [1] - As of April 2025, the shipping index futures have been operational for 410 trading days, with a cumulative trading volume of approximately 54.45 million contracts and a total trading value of about 4.7 trillion yuan [1] - The trading volume of shipping index futures is reported to be 6.2 times that of other global exchanges' shipping derivatives during the same period in 2024 [1] Group 2: Shipping Industry Overview - Maritime transport accounts for over 80% of global trade, with an estimated total shipping volume of approximately 12.63 billion tons in 2024 [2] - China's foreign trade volume constitutes over 30% of global shipping, with maritime transport handling 90% of China's external trade [2] - The shipping industry faces significant risks due to volatile shipping costs, which have become a major concern for industry players [2] Group 3: Future Plans of SHFE - SHFE plans to prioritize risk prevention and market regulation to ensure stable operation of the shipping index futures market [3] - The exchange will implement the "Sailing Project" to enhance market cultivation and improve the futures market's service capabilities for the high-quality development of the shipping industry [3] - Continuous efforts will be made to enrich the shipping derivatives system and elevate the level of financial services in the shipping sector [3]

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - The report is titled "Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report" [4] - It is from the Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute, written by Lu Zhaoyi, with an investment consulting number of Z0021177 and a qualification number of F03101843, dated May 27, 2025 [5] - The data sources are Clarksons and Wind [5] Group 2: Shipping Freight Index Spot Freight Index - The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is 1586, with a previous value of 1479 and a rise of 7.21% [5] - The current value of the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1107, with a previous value of 1105 and a rise of 0.23% [5] - For SCFI sub - routes: SCFI - US West is 3275 (up 5.95%), SCFIS - US West is 1720 (up 18.92%), SCFI - US East is 4284 (up 5.28%), SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1317 (up 14.12%), SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1247 (down 1.44%), and SCFI - Mediterranean is 2328 (up 11.82%) [5] EC Futures Price Index - Futures contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 show a general downward trend. For example, EC2506 is at 1841.5 (down 0.51%), and EC2508 is at 2085.0 (down 6.29%) [5] Futures Contract Positions - Positions of EC2506, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 have different changes. For example, EC2506 position decreased by 547, and EC2410 position increased by 1089 [5] Futures Contract Month - to - Month Spreads - The month - to - month spreads 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 all decreased. For example, the 10 - 12 spread decreased by 69.7 [5] Group 3: Market News - China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 90 days [6] - US President Trump said that the US may unilaterally set new tariff rates for many trading partners in the next two to three weeks [7] - Hamas and Israel held a new round of Gaza cease - fire negotiations in Doha [8] - Brussels may impose a 2 - euro handling fee on billions of small packages mainly imported from China. Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU starting from June 1st [9] Group 4: EC Market Analysis - The EC market shows a downward trend with a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [10] - In the spot market, the average price of May spot is still between 1700 - 1800 $/FEU, with a slight decline compared to early May. Affected by the Sino - US tariff negotiation news and the recovery of US - bound demand, airlines are trying to raise the June freight rate on the European route to 3200 - 3300 $/FEU [11] - In the futures market, after the Sino - US negotiation results exceeded expectations last week, the contracts first rose rapidly and then returned to fundamental analysis. As the June pricing becomes clearer, the market focuses more on the 06 contract, and the spread between the 6 - 8 contracts begins to shrink [11] Group 5: Investment Strategy - Long positions and arbitrage positions can be gradually closed for profit [12]

Core Insights - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) has reported that the trading volume of shipping index futures has reached approximately 54.45 million contracts as of April 30, 2024, with an average daily trading volume of about 130,000 contracts [1] - The total trading value of shipping index futures is around 4.7 trillion yuan, translating to an average daily trading value of approximately 11.4 billion yuan [1] - In 2024, the trading volume of shipping index futures is 6.2 times higher than that of similar shipping derivatives on other global exchanges, indicating significantly higher activity levels compared to foreign counterparts [1] Summary by Category Trading Volume and Activity - As of April 30, 2024, the cumulative trading volume of shipping index futures is approximately 54.45 million contracts [1] - The average daily trading volume stands at about 130,000 contracts [1] Trading Value - The cumulative trading value of shipping index futures is around 4.7 trillion yuan [1] - The average daily trading value is approximately 11.4 billion yuan [1] Comparative Analysis - The trading volume of shipping index futures in 2024 is reported to be 6.2 times that of similar products on other global exchanges, showcasing a much higher level of market activity [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The spot freight rate on the European route has been continuously sluggish, with three consecutive price increases failing from March to May due to weak fundamentals. The average freight rate in early May fell below $2000. Although the loading rate at the end of the month was good, the high capacity deployment at the end of April did not lead to a significant improvement in freight rates. It is difficult to raise prices in May as a whole. Usually, freight rates enter the peak season in May, but this year it is expected to lose one - month's price increase slope, and short - term spot freight rates may fluctuate slightly [11]. - The demand on the US route shows resilience, with high trans - shipment demand from Southeast Asia, Japan, and South Korea. The US is at the bottom of the inventory and transportation cycle, and the freight rate is gradually recovering, with the supply - demand situation turning around. However, due to the variable US tariff policy, the peak season on the US route is expected to be postponed [11]. - About 10 additional vessels were transferred from the US route to the European route in May, which may be a one - time adjustment, only impacting the supply on the European route in May. As it takes 3 - 4 months for a round - trip on the European route, it is difficult for the vessels to return to Asia before the peak season, which may lead to a shortage of vessels during the peak season on the US route and push up the peak - season freight rate center on the European and US routes [11]. - After the continuous decline in the futures market, there is no need to panic excessively. The fundamentals are forming an inflection point in late April and May, but the inflection point is not achieved overnight. The peak - season contracts are still bullish at the current level, and investors with relatively high risk tolerance can choose to buy at low prices. Given the variable macro - policies, most investors prefer to wait and see, and it is recommended to reasonably control positions and avoid risks before holidays [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1348, 1112, 2141, 1230, 3257, 1260, 1429, and 2129 respectively. The corresponding previous values are 1370, 1111, 2103, 1368, 3251, 1316, 1508, and 2161 respectively, with the respective changes of - 1.62%, 0.13%, 1.81%, - 10.09%, 0.18%, - 4.26%, - 5.24%, and - 1.48% [4]. - **Contract Data**: For contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2504, the current values are 1385.0, 1570.8, 1300.7, 1466.8, 1315.2, and 1442.0 respectively. The previous values are 1365.1, 1613.0, 1304.9, 1476.1, 1312.0, and 1440.6 respectively, with the respective changes of 1.46%, - 2.62%, - 0.32%, - 0.63%, 0.24%, and 0.10% [4]. - **Position Data**: The current positions of EC2506, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2504 are 39636, 32405, 16078, 4018, 2707, and 860 respectively. The previous positions are 40348, 31861, 16123, 4056, 2714, and 875 respectively, with the respective changes of - 712, 544, - 45, - 38, - 7, and - 15 [4]. - **Monthly Spread Data**: The current values of spreads 4 - 6, 6 - 8, and 8 - 10 are 57.0, - 185.8, and 270.1 respectively. The previous values are 75.5, - 247.9, and 308.1 respectively, with the respective changes of - 18.5, 62.1, and - 38.0 [4]. 3.2 Market News - The Trump administration is considering multiple tariff - adjustment plans. One plan may reduce the tariff rate on Chinese goods to about 15% - 65%, and the other "graded plan" will divide Chinese goods into two categories, with tariff rates of 35% and at least 100% respectively [5]. - US Treasury Secretary Bentsen said that China's exemption shows its hope to de - escalate the trade situation, the negotiations with Asian trading partners are progressing smoothly, the US government is in contact with China on all fronts, and India may be one of the first countries to sign a trade agreement with the US [6][7][8]. 3.3 Spot Freight Rate Situation - After the price - increase attempts in March and April failed, the major shipping companies' coordinated price - increase in late April was also ineffective. Maersk's price for the second half of May is $1450, and it maintains $1600 in the first half of May. OOCL's price in the first half of May dropped to $1700, and CMA's announced price increase of $4500 in May has dropped to $2145 as the booking window approaches. HPL and ONE have also lowered their May quotes, and COSCO still uses $1925 offline. It is expected that the price in the first half of May will be between $1800 - $2000 [9]. 3.4 Political Situation - The trade tariff war between the US and China has cast a pessimistic shadow over the future economy and trade volume. Currently, both sides are in a stage of accumulating chips and playing games. US Treasury Secretary Bentsen said that the current tariffs are unsustainable, but the negotiation process is long, and it may take 2 - 3 years to reach a comprehensive trade agreement. Trump also said that he will not lower the tariffs on China unless China gives the US some benefits [10].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 现货运价: （1）5月提涨:随着3、4月以稳价为目的的提涨失效后,4月下旬的小幅提涨几大航司的协同性不高。预 计效果同样较差，目前马士基排对5月上旬的报价选择沿用4月下1800的开脸价后又下调至1600美金,CMA宣张5月的 4500美金随着订舱窗口临近已降至2145美金，HPL则将5月报价降至2100美金，ONE则降至1800美金，COSCO线下沿用 1925美金。预计5月上旬价格仍能在2000-2500美金，但5月下旬的运力目前来看接近30万TBU,如果再有美线船舶调 过来,不利于运价的发展(2)4月均价:目前4月下旬整体在2000美金。 II GERIHK | | | 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | 卢钊毅 | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 | 从业资格号:F03101843 | 投资咨询号: Z0021177 | 2025/4/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | | | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中 ...