1. Urea Core View The domestic urea futures market has shown a weak and volatile trend recently, mainly driven by the contradiction between supply and demand. The supply is sufficient, while the demand is weak, leading to a poor trading atmosphere in the spot market and pushing down the futures price [7]. Summary by Category - **Futures Prices**: On August 11, the 01 contract closed at 1751, unchanged from August 8; the 05 contract closed at 1790, up 6 or 0.34%; the 09 contract closed at 1722, down 6 or -0.35% [2]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was -39 on August 11, down 6 or -18.18% from August 8; the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was 68, up 12 or 21.43%; the spread between the 09 and 01 contracts was -29, down 6 or -26.09%; the spread between the UR and MA main contracts was -667, down 12 or -1.83% [3]. - **Main Positions**: The long positions of the top 20 increased by 1403 to 63621 on August 11, a rise of 2.25%; the short positions of the top 20 decreased by 966 to 69896, a decline of -1.36%; the long - short ratio was 0.91, up 0.03 or 3.67%; the unilateral trading volume was 102540, up 22267 or 27.74%; the number of Zhengshang Institute warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3623 [4]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of small - sized anthracite in Jincheng remained at 900 yuan/ton; the price of thermal coal at the pithead in Ejin Horo Banner increased by 10 to 525 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.94%; the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port remained at 680 yuan/ton; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong remained at 2300 yuan/ton; the estimated fixed - bed production cost remained at 1430 yuan/ton; the estimated water - coal slurry production cost increased by 14 to 1155 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.23% [5]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The prices of small - sized urea in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased by 30, 20, and 40 yuan/ton respectively, with declines of -1.70%, -1.21%, and -2.25%; the prices in Northeast China and Guangdong remained unchanged; the FOB price of small - sized urea in China and the FOB price of large - sized urea in the US Gulf remained unchanged [6]. - **Regional Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between Shandong and Henan, Guangdong and Henan, and Guangdong and Shanxi changed, and the basis in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased, while the basis in Guangdong increased [7]. - **Downstream Products**: The price of melamine in Shandong increased by 70 to 5177 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.37%; the prices of 45% S and 45% CL compound fertilizers in Henan remained unchanged; the compound fertilizer - urea ratio increased by 0.04 to 1.57, a rise of 2.30% [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily domestic urea production increased by 0.20 to 19.21 million tons, a rise of 1.05%; the weekly domestic urea production decreased by 2.63 to 132.85 million tons, a decline of -1.94%; the weekly domestic urea plant - side inventory decreased by 2.97 to 88.76 million tons, a decline of -3.24%; the weekly domestic urea port inventory decreased by 1.00 to 48.30 million tons, a decline of -2.03% [7]. 2. Crude Oil Core View Recent oil prices have shown a weak and volatile trend. The main trading logic is the influence of geopolitical risks and marginal supply increments. The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin is the focus. The market is in a cautious wait - and - see attitude. In the medium - to - long term, the direction of oil prices depends on the negotiation results and inventory changes. There is no strong unilateral trend currently [9]. Summary by Category - **Oil Prices and Spreads**: On August 12, Brent crude oil was at 66.84 dollars/barrel, up 0.21 or 0.32%; WTI was at 64.13 dollars/barrel, up 0.17 or 0.27%; SC was at 494.00 yuan/barrel, up 1.50 or 0.30%. Spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 also changed [9]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, ICE Gasoil and their month - to - month spreads changed on August 12 compared with August 11 [9]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of various refined oil products in the US, Europe, and Singapore changed on August 12 compared with August 11 [9]. 3. PVC and Caustic Soda Core View The caustic soda market is expected to be neutral to weak in the later stage, and the PVC market faces great supply - demand pressure, but attention should be paid to the boost of coking coal prices on PVC [19]. Summary by Category - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On August 11, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda, Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda, and various PVC futures contracts changed compared with August 8 [14]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China decreased by 10 to 390 dollars/ton, a decline of -2.5%; the export profit increased by 22.7 to 142.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 19.0%. The overseas quotes of PVC remained unchanged, and the export profit increased by 87.9 to 30.3 yuan/ton, a rise of 152.5% [15][16]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate and the PVC total operating rate increased, while the profits of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC and northwest integrated PVC decreased [17]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of caustic soda downstream industries such as alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing changed slightly; the operating rates of PVC downstream products such as pipes, profiles, and the pre - sales volume of PVC decreased [18][19]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of liquid caustic soda in East China and Shandong increased, the upstream plant - side inventory of PVC decreased, and the total social inventory of PVC increased [19]. 4. Polyolefins Core View The supply of PP and PE has different trends, and the demand is expected to improve in the peak season. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the inventories in the middle and upstream are being depleted. There is no major supply - demand contradiction [23]. Summary by Category - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 11, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, PP2509 and their spreads, as well as the spot prices of East China PP drawstrings, North China LLDPE film materials, and their basis changed compared with August 8 [23]. - **PE and PP Standard Prices**: The prices of various PE and PP products in East China changed on August 11 compared with the previous period [23]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates and Inventories**: The operating rates of PE and PP plants and their downstream industries changed, and the inventories of PE and PP enterprises and traders increased [23]. 5. Pure Benzene - Styrene Core View In the short term, pure benzene prices are relatively well - supported, but the rebound space is limited. Styrene's fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is also restricted. Specific trading strategies are provided for both [26]. Summary by Category - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On August 11, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, CFR China pure benzene, and their spreads changed compared with August 8 [26]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene in East China, EB futures contracts, and their spreads, as well as the cash flows and import profits changed [26]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of phenol, caprolactam, aniline, EPS, PS, ABS and other downstream products changed [26]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased, and the operating rates of various industries in the pure benzene and styrene产业链 changed [26]. 6. Methanol Core View The methanol market is affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand. The 09 contract has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract has seasonal and supply - reduction expectations. Specific trading strategies are provided [30]. Summary by Category - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 8, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 decreased, and the MA91 spread, Taicang basis, and regional spreads changed compared with August 7 [30]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3 to 29.3688%, a decline of -9.50%; the methanol port inventory increased by 12 to 92.5 million tons, a rise of 14.48%; the methanol social inventory increased by 8.6 to 121.9%, a rise of 7.61% [30]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream domestic enterprises and some downstream industries changed on August 8 compared with the previous period [30]. 7. Polyester Industry Chain Core View The supply - demand situations of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip are different, and corresponding trading strategies are provided for each [59]. Summary by Category - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On August 11, the prices of POY, FDY, DTY, polyester chips, polyester bottle - chips, and their cash flows changed compared with August 8 [59]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of CFR China PX, PX futures contracts, and their spreads, as well as the PX basis and processing spreads changed [59]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PTA, PTA futures contracts, and their basis, processing spreads, and operating rates changed [59]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of MEG, MEG futures contracts, and their basis, spreads, and cash flows changed [59]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain such as PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products changed [59].

Group 1: Elderly Care Services - The Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Ministry of Commerce are launching a nationwide "Elderly Care Service Consumption Season" from July to December, aimed at promoting elderly care consumption and improving the quality of life for seniors [1] - The initiative includes innovative activities, enhancing service quality, increasing service supply, and implementing policies to reduce costs for enterprises [1][2] - The program is expected to stimulate the domestic elderly care industry, addressing the growing demand for quality elderly services amid an accelerating aging population [1][2] Group 2: Global Manufacturing PMI - In June 2025, the global manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.5%, indicating a slight increase but still below the expansion threshold of 50% [3] - The Americas' manufacturing PMI was at 48.6%, while Asia's PMI was at 50.7%, showing a mixed recovery across regions [3] - The overall manufacturing sector remains in a contraction phase, with varying recovery rates influenced by trade policies and economic conditions [3][4] Group 3: Japanese Wage Trends - Japan's real wages fell by 2.9% in May 2025, marking the largest decline in 20 months, as inflation outpaced nominal wage growth [5] - The consumer inflation rate significantly exceeded wage increases, leading to a decrease in household purchasing power [5] - The ongoing wage stagnation amidst high inflation raises concerns about domestic consumption and economic stability [5][6] Group 4: Food Industry Challenges - The price of white feather chickens in Shandong has dropped below 3 yuan per jin, leading to significant losses across the industry [9] - The oversupply in the market has resulted in a continuous decline in prices, with many producers facing financial difficulties [9][10] - The overall meat market is experiencing a downturn, exacerbated by reduced demand and competition from alternative protein sources [9][10] Group 5: Delivery Service Competition - Recent promotional activities in the food delivery sector have led to record-breaking order volumes, with Meituan processing 1.2 billion orders in a single day [7] - The intense competition and heavy subsidies are causing significant financial strain on delivery platforms, impacting their profitability [8] - The reliance on subsidies to attract users may not be sustainable in the long term, as the market matures and consumer preferences evolve [8] Group 6: Financial Market Developments - The largest bank ETF in A-shares has completed a 1:2 share split, aimed at making the fund more accessible to investors [14] - The banking sector has shown strong performance, with all stocks in the sector reporting gains this year [14][15] - The share split is seen as a marketing strategy to attract more investors, although the underlying value of the fund remains unchanged [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current EC08 contract on the trading board is at a discount to the spot price, and attention should be paid to the potential logic of Scenario 2. This year, the European route trading is prone to a cycle of "front - running - logic reinforcement - losses". It is recommended to value the "error - tolerance" space of far - month contracts, formulate far - month positive spread strategies based on historical delivery data, and avoid over - relying on short - term sentiment. [9] - The trading on the board returns to fundamental drivers, with trading centered around the expectation of the peak season transitioning to the off - season. As the end of the tariff suspension period approaches, some airlines expect to raise prices in late July. [9][10] - Hold the 12 - 4 positive spread strategy. [11] 3. Summary by Related Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently at 1862, down 0.43% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1369, up 2.00%. SCFI - US West is at 2578, down 7.00%; SCFIS - US West is at 1619, down 22.28%; SCFI - US East is at 4717, down 11.86%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is at 2030, up 10.63%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe is at 2123, up 9.60%; SCFI - Mediterranean is at 2985, down 2.55%. [4] - **Contracts**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2508, etc., the current values and their percentage changes are provided. For example, EC2508 is currently at 1904.9, up 8.15% from the previous value. [4] - **Open Interest**: The current open interest and its changes for contracts like EC2606, EC2508, etc. are given. For instance, the current open interest of EC2508 is 40476, an increase of 1248 from the previous value. [4] - **Monthly Spread**: The current monthly spreads (10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4) and their changes are presented. For example, the 10 - 12 monthly spread is currently 521.1, up 98.7 from the previous value. [4] Market News - After the JOLTS data was released, traders slightly reduced the expected magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cuts, expecting the cuts to start in September, with a 21% probability of a cut in July. [5] - The White House stated that Trump may extend the 90 - day tariff suspension period in July. Trump plans to visit China with dozens of CEOs. Fed Chairman Powell said that a "substantial majority" of Fed members expect to cut interest rates later this year. [6] - According to the Financial Times, Trump's tariff policy and falling river levels have led to the worst supply - chain congestion in European ports since the pandemic, especially in Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg, and the congestion is expected to last for at least several months. [7] - Iran's ambassador to the UN stated that Tehran "will never stop" uranium - enrichment activities, emphasizing it as an inalienable right and national sovereignty under the NPT. [7] Market Conditions and Strategies for EC Contracts - **Market Conditions**: The spot freight rates have been rising this week. The quotes for European basic ports in late June are 2,800 - 3,200 US dollars per 40 - foot container, and the upward trend is expected to continue until mid - July. For the 7 - 8 month European route freight rates, there are three scenarios: a collapse - style decline if a large amount of US - bound capacity shifts to the European route; an "arc - top" trend if shipping companies control capacity; and global capacity misallocation due to unexpected factors. [8] - **Trading Strategies**: Given that the EC08 contract on the board is at a discount to the spot price, attention should be paid to the potential logic of Scenario 2. It is recommended to formulate far - month positive spread strategies based on historical delivery data and hold the 12 - 4 positive spread. [9][11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report mainly presents the latest data and trends of the shipping industry, including EC futures contract prices, spot freight rates, and relevant news. It reflects the current market situation and potential influencing factors in the shipping market. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The EC2508 contract had a closing price of 2001.5 with a -1.99% change, while the EC2510 contract had a closing price of 1371.1 with a 1.42% change. Other contracts also showed different price movements [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The EC2508 contract had a trading volume of 55132 and an open interest of 44603, with a decrease of 391 in open interest. The EC2510 contract had a volume of 12283 and an open interest of 25054, with an increase of 37 [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread between EC2506 - 2508 was -75.5, with a month - on - month change of 34.6 and a week - on - week change of 50.2. Different contract spreads showed various changes [2]. Spot Freight Rates - **Indices and Changes**: The SCFI index on 2025/6/6 was $1667/TEU, with a 5.04% month - on - month increase and a 20.50% year - on - year increase. The CCFI index was 1397.02, with a 1.56% month - on - month increase and a -1.22% year - on - year decrease [2]. - **Capacity Arrangement**: The average weekly capacity in June and July (tentatively) 2025 is 297,000 and 314,000 TEU respectively. In the second half of June, the capacity in week 24 and 25 is 300,000 and 285,000 TEU respectively [2]. Recent European Line Quotations - **Lower - half of June**: The average price in the second week of June was about 1800 points. The current lowest price in the second half of June is 2800 US dollars from MSK, and the average price is about 2950 US dollars, with week 24 equivalent to about 2050 points on the futures market [3]. News - **US Tariff Policy**: US Treasury Secretary Besent indicated that the Trump administration may extend the 90 - day tariff suspension period if major trading partners show "sincerity" in negotiations [4]. - **Middle East Situation**: Israel responded to the Gaza cease - fire and personnel exchange agreement draft, showing some flexibility but still refusing to permanently end military operations in Gaza. Israel also informed the US that it is ready for actions against Iran, while the US envoy still plans to talk with Iran [5].

Group 1: Trade Policy Uncertainty - The Trump administration's potential increase of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50% raises trade policy uncertainty [1][8] - The Oxford Economics economist Edward Allenby indicates that the courts are playing a larger role in determining tariff levels, which may further exacerbate trade policy uncertainty [1] Group 2: US-UK Economic Prosperity Agreement - The US and UK reached a non-legally binding "Economic Prosperity Agreement" (EPD) on May 8, which has raised concerns among international law experts regarding its terminology [3] - The EPD does not eliminate reciprocal tariffs but lowers tariffs on certain industries such as automobiles, steel, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals [3] Group 3: US-China Trade Negotiations - A joint statement from the US and China on May 12 outlines mutual commitments to cancel and modify tariffs, with the US agreeing to eliminate 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods [4] - China will also suspend or cancel non-tariff retaliatory measures against US goods [4] Group 4: Impact of Legal Challenges - The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump overstepped his authority regarding global tariffs, but the appeals court temporarily stayed this ruling, allowing tariffs to remain in effect [7] - The ongoing legal battles between the Trump administration and US federal courts are influencing the progress of international negotiations [5][7] Group 5: Global Trade Dynamics - Countries like Japan, India, and South Korea are reassessing their negotiation strategies with the US following the suspension of tariffs on China [6] - India's plan to impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods worth $1.91 billion indicates a shift in its trade stance under Prime Minister Modi [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold price fell on May 16, recording its largest weekly decline in six months, primarily due to a stronger dollar and reduced concerns over the US-China trade war, which diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][2] - As of the report, spot gold dropped by 1.83% to $3,181.19, with a daily low of $3,154, marking a nearly 4% decline for the week, the worst since November of the previous year [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by approximately 58 basis points by the end of the year, a significant reduction from the 120 basis points anticipated during the peak of panic in April [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold's price action on Friday mirrored that of Thursday, with a significant drop followed by a potential rebound, indicating a possible double bottom formation [2][4] - The key support levels are identified at $3,152 and $3,140, while resistance is noted at $3,210-3,212, suggesting a wide trading range for the upcoming week [4] - The strategy for the upcoming week is to focus on buying on dips above $3,150 and selling on rallies, with a close watch on the resistance and support levels [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - On May 16, international oil prices experienced slight upward movement, trading around $61.98 per barrel, following a significant drop the previous day due to easing global trade tensions [5] - The market's concerns regarding oil demand were alleviated by a temporary suspension of tariffs between major economies, which is expected to help mitigate fears of a global economic slowdown [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The mid-term outlook for oil prices remains bearish, with the price expected to test lower levels around $50 after a series of fluctuations [6] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on selling on rallies, with key resistance levels at $63.50-64.00 and support levels at $60.5-60.0 [6]