Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The late Fuji Spring Festival stocking in apple production areas has begun, with merchants mainly packaging their own inventory. The transaction atmosphere of fruit farmers' goods is not strong. The transaction in Shandong is sporadic, while that in Gansu is relatively stable. The number of inquiring merchants has slightly increased, but the sales in the distribution area are still weak. The inventory removal speed has slightly accelerated compared with last week, but is still lower than the same period last year. There may be a short - term trend of fluctuating and strengthening [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract is 9630 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan; the main contract position is 129,001 lots, down 16,135 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures is 6,264 lots, down 1,942 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75) is 2.4 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commodities) is 4.2 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged above 80 first - grade second - class fruit farmers' goods) is 4 yuan/jin [2] Upstream Situation - The annual national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons; the weekly apple fruit wholesale price is 0.06 yuan/kg; the average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 168.34 yuan/kg [2] Industry Situation - The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 720.90 million tons, down 12.66 million tons; the storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 51.85%, down 0.57%; in Shaanxi is 55.35%, down 0.80%. The monthly apple export volume is 120,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons; the monthly export amount year - on - year is - 216,418 US dollars; the monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 11,179,460 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly fruit wholesale price of pears is 6.71 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan; of bananas is 5.84 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan; of watermelons is 6.93 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan. The early - morning average daily arrival volume of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 12.4 vehicles, down 4.85 vehicles; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 23.6 vehicles, down 8.15 vehicles; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 17 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 26.24%, up 1.22%; that of at - the - money put options is 26.21%, up 1.19% [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The core contradictions affecting apple prices include the trends of 03 and 04 contracts and the direction of the 05 contract. The 03 and 04 contracts may be boosted by pre - Spring Festival stocking but face the risk of decline if the peak - season consumption is below expectations. The 05 contract may become a truly short - supply contract and may hit a new high after a follow - up decline [2]. - The near - term trading logic of the 03 contract focuses on Spring Festival consumption. If it is below expectations, the post - festival apple price may drop. The far - term trading logic of the 05 contract is based on pre - holiday stocking expectations and the shortage of deliverable goods, but the quality and hardness issues will continue to affect it [3][4]. - The apple market shows a short - term strong upward trend, with the near - month contracts breaking previous highs, especially the 05 contract. The current disk presents a Contango structure, and the long - position of profitable seats increased last week [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The 03 and 04 contracts are affected by pre - Spring Festival stocking, but substitutes suppress apple demand. If peak - season consumption is poor, there will be high post - festival de - stocking pressure. The 05 contract may face a shortage after multiple holidays, and its price may hit a new high after a decline [2]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The market shows a short - term strong upward trend. The 05 contract has a larger increase, and the disk is in a Contango structure. The net long - position of profitable seats increased by 1006 hands to 5508 hands last week [7]. - The basis strategy is difficult to formulate due to the difficulty in determining the spot target, and the month - spread strategy suggests waiting and seeing [8]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range of apples is 9200 - 10000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 57.8% [9]. - For inventory management, when worried about a high - yield of new apples and low purchase prices, enterprises can short apple futures and sell call options. For procurement management, when worried about high apple purchase prices, enterprises can buy apple futures and sell put options [9]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - As of January 7, 2026, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 720.90 million tons, a decrease of 12.66 million tons from last week, with a slightly faster de - stocking speed but still lower than the same period last year [12]. - As of January 8, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 51.13%, 4.92% lower than the same period last year. The cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.18% in the past two weeks, and the de - stocking rate was 8.48% [12]. - In the late Fuji apple producing areas, the number of inquiring merchants increased slightly this week. Fruit farmers' shipments were concentrated in Gansu and Liaoning, and the overall shipment volume was small with a weak and stable price [12]. - The number of vehicles in the three major wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased compared with last week. Market sales slowed down after New Year's Day, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm declined [12][13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Information - The weekly Thursday inventory data from Zhuochuang and Ganglian [16] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Last week, apple futures rose strongly after a previous correction. The position of the main 05 contract decreased seasonally but increased this week, still lower than last year's level. The net long - position of profitable seats increased by 1006 hands to 5508 hands. Technically, the 05 contract is short - term strong but faces upper pressure [16]. 3.1.2 Basis and Month - Spread Structure - The apple basis structure is complex due to inconsistent apple quality each year and frequent changes in futures delivery rules. The 3 - 5 spread has strengthened since December, driven by the near - month delivery logic, but whether it will further strengthen is uncertain. The 03 contract shows a stronger trend [18]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Apple profits mainly include planting and storage profits. Short - term market attention is on storage profits, which are closely related to the opening price. This year, with more poor - quality apples and fewer high - quality ones, storage faces great challenges [20]. Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Affected by spring hot - dry winds and rainy weather during the harvest period, this year's apple production and quality have significantly declined. The estimated total apple production in 2025 is about 34 million tons, a reduction of 8% (3 million tons) compared with last year. The current cold - storage inventory is about 10% lower than the same period last year, and the effective inventory may be even lower [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - As of January 7, 2026, the inventory of apple cold storage in the main producing areas of China decreased by 126,600 tons compared with last week, and the de - stocking speed increased slightly month - on - month but was still lower than the same period last year. The market price of high - quality Fuji apples in the cold storage was relatively stable, and the general fruit farmer's goods were priced according to quality. The overall trading atmosphere in the producing areas was not strong, and most merchants purchased on demand. In the Shaanxi producing area, the trading volume of fruit farmers' goods increased slightly, while in the Shandong producing area, the transactions were sporadic. The downstream traders replenished their stocks cautiously, and the trading of fruit farmers' goods was light. In the sales area, fruits such as cherries and citrus were popular, but as the producing areas entered the festival stocking stage, the short - term price would run strongly [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract was 9,531 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest was 122,541 lots, a decrease of 11,108 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 5,464 lots, a decrease of 1,061 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) was 5.25 yuan/jin, and that in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) was 2.4 yuan/jin, both unchanged. The spot price of apples in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial) was 4.2 yuan/jin, and that in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80 second - grade fruit farmers' goods) was 4 yuan/jin, both unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The annual apple output in China was 51.2851 million tons, an increase of 1.6834 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly wholesale price of apples was 9.43 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.1 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg. The storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples was 55.35%, a decrease of 0.80%, and that of Shandong apples was 51.85%, a decrease of 0.57%. The total inventory of national apple cold storage was 7.209 million tons, a decrease of 126,600 tons. The monthly export volume of apples was 120,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons. The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts was 11.17946 million US dollars, a decrease of 2.16418 million US dollars. The year - on - year export value of apples decreased by 216,418 [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears was 6.71 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of bananas was 6.93 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.05 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons was 5.84 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg. The average daily arrival volume of trucks in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market was 17.25 vehicles, a decrease of 1.35 vehicles; that at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market was 21.25 vehicles, and that at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market was 31.75 vehicles, a decrease of 4.05 vehicles [2] Options Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples was 25.08%, an increase of 0.1%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples was 25.08%, an increase of 0.09% [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The price of the 01 contract of apple futures is likely to continue rising and may reach or exceed the level of the 12 contract due to reduced supply and fewer deliverable fruits [1][2] - The subsequent factor determining apple prices will shift from supply to consumption, and there is a risk of the traditional peak - season being lackluster due to changes in consumption structure [1] - The 05 contract has room for future price increases as good - quality apples are scarce, despite recent price retracements [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core contradiction for the 01 contract is its final closing price. With this year's apple production reduction and quality decline, fewer deliverable fruits are supporting the price increase [1] - The uncertainty lies in whether the upcoming Spring Festival consumption season will be good or bad, as there are concerns about weak consumption and the "bad money driving out good" situation [1] 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The upward momentum of apples has fluctuated recently. Last week, apple futures prices were oscillating strongly, with more significant retracements in the far - month contracts. The net long position decreased to 5232 lots [5] - The basis strategy is difficult to formulate due to the difficulty in determining the spot target, and the month - spread strategy suggests waiting and seeing [6][7] 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range for apples is 9200 - 10000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 15.1% over three years [8] - For inventory management, when worried about a bumper apple harvest and low purchase prices, enterprises can short apple futures (AP2603) with a 25% hedging ratio at 9700 - 9800 yuan/ton and sell call options (AP2603C) with a 25% ratio at 100 - 120 yuan/ton [8] - For procurement management, when worried about rising apple prices, enterprises can buy apple futures (AP2603) with a 50% hedging ratio at 9200 - 9300 yuan/ton and sell put options (AP2603P9) with a 75% ratio at 160 - 200 yuan/ton [8] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - As of December 24, steel - union data showed that the national apple cold - storage inventory was 744.04 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.94 million tons; while Zhuochuang data showed 702.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.06 million tons [11] - In the market, inquiries for late - Fuji apples increased in the second half of the week, but the transaction of farmers' apples was still limited. The consumption in the Guangdong market improved slightly, but there was pressure in daily vehicle - load digestion [11] 2.2 Next Week's Important Information - Zhuochuang and steel - union will release weekly inventory data every Thursday [14] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Last week, apple futures oscillated with little overall change, and the near - month contracts were slightly stronger. The position of the main 05 contract decreased seasonally and was lower than last year's level. Profitable seats reduced their positions last week [14] - Technically, the 01 contract of apple futures was strong at a high level, showing an obvious bullish trend, while the 05 contract was weak and needed time to adjust [14] 3.2 Basis and Month - Spread Structure - The basis structure of apples is complex due to inconsistent apple quality each year and different grading conditions in Shandong and the northwest regions. The futures delivery rules are also constantly changing [16] - The 1 - 5 spread has strengthened since December, driven by the near - month delivery logic. The shortage of deliverable fruits has pushed up the price of near - month contracts and the spread, which may further widen before entering the delivery month [16] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Tracking of Upstream and Downstream Profits in the Industry Chain - Apple profits mainly include planting and storage profits. Currently, the market focuses on storage profits, which are closely related to the opening price. This year, storing apples is challenging due to more low - quality fruits and fewer high - quality ones [18] Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - Affected by spring hot - dry winds and rainy weather during the harvest period, this year's apple production and quality have significantly declined. Zhuochuang estimates the 2025 apple production to be about 34 million tons, an 8% decrease from last year [20] - Based on the current warehousing situation, inventory is about 10% lower than the same period last year, and the effective inventory may be even lower due to more inferior fruits [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading of apples in Shandong and Shaanxi production areas remains sluggish, with slow shipment and increased willingness of fruit growers to sell at market prices. The shipment in Gansu production area is okay, especially the inventory of high - cost - effective Fuji apples is actively traded. The trading atmosphere of late - Fuji apples remains light, and the enthusiasm of merchants to purchase fruit growers' goods has declined. Good - quality apple prices remain firm, while the prices of general and lower - quality apples have loosened. As of December 18, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased, and the storage - capacity ratios in Shandong and Shaanxi also decreased. The prices of fruit growers' goods in Shaanxi's secondary production areas slightly declined, and the sales area market shipment is still poor. The increasing supply of tangerines and other citrus fruits impacts apple sales. With the current weak demand for double - festival stocking, there is a possibility of a continued short - term price decline. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9149 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 888 compared to the previous period; the main - contract position volume is 6025 hands, and the net long - order volume of the top 20 futures positions is 148,778 hands, with a decrease of 1940 compared to the previous period. [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bag, above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin, and that in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bag, above 75) is 2.6 yuan/jin, with no change compared to the previous period. The price in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bag, above 70) is 4.2 yuan/jin, and that in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bag, above 80) is 4 yuan/jin, also with no change. [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons. The fruit wholesale price of apples is 9.37 yuan/kg, with an increase of 168.34 compared to the previous period, and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.14 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.01. The national apple cold - storage total inventory is 752.98 million tons, with a decrease of 5.57 million tons. The storage - capacity ratio in Shandong is 0.57, and that in Shaanxi is 0.53. The monthly export quantity of apples is 80,000 tons, with an increase of 10,000 tons. [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import amount of fresh, dried fruits and nuts decreased by 503,616 US dollars, and the year - on - year monthly export amount of apples decreased by 14.3%. The profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag apple 80 storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin, with no change. [2] Downstream Situation - The fruit wholesale price of pears is 6.68 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.06; the price of bananas is 6.6 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.27; the price of watermelons is 5.64 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.17. The early - morning average daily vehicle arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 17.2 vehicles, with an increase of 2.6; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 20.6 vehicles; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 27.6 vehicles, with an increase of 3.8. [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 24.02%, and that of at - the - money put options is 24.01%, both with an increase of 0.33 compared to the previous period. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - As of December 11, 2025, the apple cold storage inventory in the main producing areas of China decreased by 49,700 tons compared to the previous week. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong and Shaanxi decreased. The sales atmosphere in Shandong was still weak, and the shipment in Shaanxi was relatively cold. The arrival volume in the sales area decreased, and the sales were not fast due to high prices. Oranges and other citrus fruits impacted apple sales. The current festival stocking was light, and there was a possibility of short - term price decline [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract was 9,129 yuan/ton, and the main contract position was 152,850 lots, an increase of 3,019 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 2,946 lots, an increase of 5,073 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, Shaanxi Luochuan, and Shandong Yantai Qixia remained unchanged, at 5.25 yuan/jin, 2.6 yuan/jin, 4.2 yuan/jin, and 4 yuan/jin respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The annual apple output in China was 51.2851 million tons, an increase of 1.6834 million tons. The weekly average wholesale price of apples was 9.37 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg. The weekly average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.13 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg. The total cold storage inventory of apples in China was 7.5855 million tons, a decrease of 49,600 tons. The storage capacity ratio of apples in Shandong was 53.73%, a decrease of 0.24%. The storage capacity ratio of apples in Shaanxi was 57.86%, a decrease of 0.35%. The monthly export volume of apples was 80,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts decreased by 58%. The monthly year - on - year export amount of apples decreased by 14.3%. The weekly profit of 80 first - and second - grade paper - bag apple storage merchants was 0 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale prices of pears, bananas, and watermelons were 6.74 yuan/kg, 5.47 yuan/kg, and 6.33 yuan/kg respectively. The weekly average daily arrival volume of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Guangdong Chalong, and Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale markets was 14.6, 17.8, and 23.8 respectively, with decreases of 2.6, 1.8, and 3 respectively [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and at - the - money put options for apples was 23.28% and 23.3% respectively, with increases of 1.02% and 1.04% [2] Industry News - The price of general - quality late - Fuji apples from fruit farmers in the producing areas weakened, and the transaction did not improve significantly. The shipment speed of late - Fuji apples in the producing areas was slow. The price in the Gansu producing area decreased with the decline in quality, while the prices in other producing areas remained stable [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The trading volume of late Fuji apples remains sluggish, with limited orders from merchants in the production areas. The出库 in Shandong is slow and the in - warehouse trading is limited. In Shaanxi, farmers are not eager to sell. The arrival volume in the sales areas has increased slightly, but the trading atmosphere is still light, with overstocking in transit warehouses. Affected by citrus fruits, the terminal sales are slow, and prices are expected to decline [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract is 9,505 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest is 130,067 lots, a decrease of 8,564 lots compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 6,502 lots, an increase of 304 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75), Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75), Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commercial), and Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged above 80 first - grade) are 5.25 yuan/jin, 2.6 yuan/jin, 4.2 yuan/jin, and 4 yuan/jin respectively, with no change from the previous period [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The annual national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons. The weekly wholesale price of apples is 9.37 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg compared to the previous period. The average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.07 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg. The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 758.55 million tons, a decrease of 4.96 million tons. The capacity utilization ratios of apple cold - storage in Shandong and Shaanxi are 0.54 and 0.58 respectively, with no change. The monthly apple export volume is 80,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts decreased by 5.8%, and the monthly year - on - year export value of apples decreased by 14.3%. The monthly import value decreased by 503,616 US dollars to 1,334,364 US dollars. The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples is 0 yuan/jin [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale prices of pears, bananas, and watermelons are 6.74 yuan/kg, 6.33 yuan/kg, and 5.47 yuan/kg respectively, with changes of - 0.02 yuan/kg, + 0.33 yuan/kg, and + 0.06 yuan/kg compared to the previous period. The early - morning average daily vehicle arrivals at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets are 17.2, 19.6, and 26.8 vehicles respectively, with changes of + 1.2, 0, and + 1.6 vehicles compared to the previous period [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for apples is 22.17% and 22.18% respectively, with changes of - 0.24% and - 0.21% compared to the previous period [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 11, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory is 758.55 million tons, a decrease of 4.97 million tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization ratio in Shandong is 53.73%, a decrease of 0.24% from the previous week, and in Shaanxi is 57.86%, a decrease of 0.35% from the previous week [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The apple market shows mixed trends. While there is a slight increase in the number of in -quiring customers in the producing areas, most are still observing. The overall trading of late - Fuji apples remains light, with limited orders from merchants in the producing areas. The出库 in Shandong is slow, and the willingness of fruit farmers in Shaanxi to sell is still low. The arrival volume in the sales areas has increased slightly, but the trading atmosphere is still light, and the terminal sales are slow, increasing the risk of price decline. The citrus market is impacting the apple market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9510 yuan/ton, and the main contract position is 138,631 hands, with a week - on - week increase of 6,486 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 6,198 hands, a week - on - week decrease of 1,566 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in different regions are as follows: 5.25 yuan/jin in Gansu Jingning (paper - bag 75 and above), 2.6 yuan/jin in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bag 75 and above), 4.2 yuan/jin in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bag 70 and above semi - commercial), and 4 yuan/jin in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bag 80 and above secondary fruit farmer's goods) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The annual apple production in the country is 5,128.51 million tons. The weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.37 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.07 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan/kg. The Shaanxi apple storage capacity ratio is 0.58, and the national apple cold - storage total inventory is 763.51 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.24 million tons. The monthly apple export volume is 80,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import amount of fresh, dried fruits and nuts decreased by 14.3%. The month - on - month export amount of apples decreased by 503,616 US dollars, and the profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apple storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale prices of duck pears, bananas, and watermelons are 6.74 yuan/kg, 6.33 yuan/kg, and 5.47 yuan/kg respectively. The weekly average number of early - morning arriving trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets is 17.2, 19.6, and 26.8 respectively, with week - on - week increases of 1.2, 0.4, and 1.6 [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 22.41%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.21%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.39%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.24% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The market in apple - producing areas has changed little. The number of in -quiring customers has increased slightly, but most are still observing. Shaanxi and Shandong mainly rely on merchants' self - pick - up of goods, and most of the small - volume purchases are cheap goods. The trading in the Gansu producing area is mainly high - quality inventory Fuji, and the trading enthusiasm has slightly declined [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The apple futures price will continue to operate at a high level in the short term due to the approaching Christmas and New Year holidays, which support the holiday demand, despite the light trading atmosphere in the apple market and the impact of citrus fruits [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9,506 yuan/ton, and the main contract position is 126,173 lots, with an increase of 1,466 lots compared to the previous period; the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions is 5,007 lots, a decrease of 1,983 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, Shaanxi Luochuan, and Shandong Yantai Qixia remain unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The annual apple output in China is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons; the weekly fruit wholesale price of apples is 9.38 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg; the average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.07 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg; the total weekly inventory of apple cold storage in China is 763.51 million tons, a decrease of 3.24 million tons; the weekly apple storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 0.58, and that in Shaanxi is 0.54; the monthly export volume of apples is 80,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts decreases by 5.8%; the monthly year-on-year export value of apples decreases by 14.3%; the weekly profit of first- and second-grade paper-bagged apple 80 storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly fruit wholesale prices of duck pears, bananas, and watermelons change, and the morning average daily arrival vehicle volumes at fruit wholesale markets in Guangdong also change [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call and put options for apples is 22.94%, with a decrease of 0.3% [2] Industry News - The inventory trading in apple production areas is still light, with few inquiries and viewings in cold storage, and most of the small-volume transactions are low-priced goods; the overall transaction of late Fuji apples remains light, and the order volume from merchants in the production areas is limited; the inventory in the main apple production areas decreases, and the inventory ratio in Shandong and Shaanxi decreases; the shipment in the Shandong production area is slow, and the inventory trading is limited; the willingness of fruit farmers in the Shaanxi production area to sell is still not high; the arrival volume in the sales area market increases slightly, the trading atmosphere is still light, and citrus fruits impact the apple market [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The core contradictions affecting apple prices are the uncertainty of the final price of the 01 contract and the ambiguity of the Spring Festival consumption season. The 01 contract will follow the delivery logic due to reduced supply and limited deliverable fruits, while future price factors will shift from supply to consumption, with potential "off - peak during peak season" scenarios [1]. - The short - term trading logic is that it's the off - season for late Fuji apples, with limited orders from merchants and market impact from citrus fruits, but the price of high - quality apples remains firm. In the long - term, the scarcity of high - quality apples provides opportunities for price rebounds after declines [2][3]. - The upward momentum of apple prices may strengthen. The basis strategy is difficult to formulate, and the monthly spread strategy suggests waiting and seeing. For industrial clients, different hedging strategies are recommended based on inventory and procurement management needs [6][7][8] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Contradictions** - The 01 contract price is expected to keep rising due to reduced apple production, poor quality, and limited deliverable fruits. Future price determinants will shift to consumption, and there are concerns about "off - peak during peak season" and "bad money driving out good" [1]. - **Speculative Strategy Recommendations** - The upward momentum of apple prices may strengthen. The net long position decreased to 3029 lots. The basis strategy is hard to formulate, and the monthly spread strategy suggests waiting and seeing [6][7][8]. - **Industry Client Operation Recommendations** - The predicted price range for apples is 9200 - 10000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 18.5% (3 - year). Different hedging strategies are recommended for inventory and procurement management [9]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns - **This Week's Important Information** - As of December 3rd, national apple cold - storage inventories decreased. Cold - storage shipments slowed down, and trading in production areas was sluggish. The number of vehicles in Guangdong's three major wholesale markets increased, but the sales slowed down [12]. - **Next Week's Important Information** - Monitor the weekly Thursday inventory data from Zhuochuang and Ganglian [15]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation - **Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation** - Last week, apple futures showed a volatile and slightly upward trend. Total positions decreased significantly, and profitable seats continued to reduce positions. Technically, the main contract did not break through the previous high and maintained an upward structure [15]. - **Basis and Monthly Spread Structure** - The apple basis structure is complex due to inconsistent apple quality and changing futures delivery rules. The monthly spread structure shows significant fluctuations in the near - month approaching the delivery month, and the possibility of a stronger long - term market is increasing [17]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - **Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain's Upstream and Downstream** - Apple profits mainly include planting and storage profits. Currently, the market focuses on storage profits, which are closely related to the opening price. With more low - quality apples this year, storage faces challenges, and the storage profit for the 25/26 season is undetermined [19]. Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction** - Affected by weather, this year's apple production and quality declined. The estimated total production in 2025 is about 34 million tons, an 8% decrease from last year. Cold - storage inventories decreased by 10% compared to the same period last year, and the effective inventory may be lower [21].