Core Insights - The company's revenue growth has significantly declined in Q1 2025 compared to the same period last year, primarily due to the impact of one-time asset disposals in the previous year [1] - Credit growth continues to rebound, which may alleviate the pressure on net interest margins [2] - The company's projected net profit growth for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 is modest, with estimates of 0.3%, 1.8%, and 1.6% respectively [3] Financial Performance - As of Q1 2025, the company's revenue, PPOP, and net profit attributable to shareholders showed year-on-year growth rates of 0.9%, -7.4%, and -3.6% respectively [1] - Net interest income decreased by 5.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure on net interest margins despite total assets growing by 6.8% [1] - The company experienced a significant decline in non-interest income, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.4% and a quarter-on-quarter drop of 44.8% [1] Credit and Asset Quality - Total assets and loan amounts grew by 6.8% and 6.0% year-on-year as of Q1 2025, with loan growth showing a continuous rebound over three consecutive quarters [2] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable, while the attention rate increased by 21 basis points [2] - The company’s provision coverage ratio and loan-to-deposit ratio decreased by 13.1 percentage points and 11 basis points respectively as of Q1 2025 [2] Valuation and Forecast - The projected book value per share (BVPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is estimated at 13.37, 13.92, and 14.47 yuan respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.65X, 0.62X, and 0.60X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3] - A valuation premium of 10% is applied due to the company's strong core tier one capital adequacy ratio and dividend rate, resulting in a reasonable value of 9.18 yuan per share for 2025 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The revenue growth rate shows marginal improvement, with resilience in net interest margin [10] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts, predicting a net profit growth of 6.8%/7.7%/8.7% for the years 2025/2026/2027, with a target price of 27.75 CNY per share [3][6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million CNY) for 2023A is 61,585, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, projected to reach 66,631 in 2024A with an 8.2% growth [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A is 25,535 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 10.7%, expected to grow to 27,127 million CNY in 2024A, reflecting a 6.2% increase [5] - The company's net interest income for 2023A is 40,907 million CNY, with a projected increase to 47,993 million CNY in 2024A [13] - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 2,711,662 million CNY in 2023A to 3,125,232 million CNY in 2024A [13] Profitability Metrics - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023A is 3.75 CNY, projected to increase to 3.95 CNY in 2024A [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2023A is 6.23, expected to decrease to 5.91 in 2024A [5] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio for 2023A is 0.87, projected to decline to 0.74 in 2024A [5] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remains stable at 0.76% as of the end of 2024, indicating strong asset quality [10] - The company’s provision coverage ratio is reported at 389.4% [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 174.14 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.23 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.66% and 15.38% respectively, slightly exceeding previous operational announcements [1] - The revenue growth is driven by both volume and price increases, with a notable 13.73% increase in volume and a 1.9% increase in price for the main liquor segment [1][5] - The company has set a realistic revenue growth target of 9% for 2025, balancing short-term growth with long-term development [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a stable gross margin of 92.01%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2] - The total cash dividend for 2024 is planned at 64.7 billion yuan, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of 75% [3] - The company expects to achieve revenues of 190.88 billion yuan, 207.04 billion yuan, and 223.91 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 94.76 billion yuan, 103.01 billion yuan, and 111.64 billion yuan [6][7] Product and Channel Analysis - The main liquor segment generated 145.9 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, with a volume increase of 10.22% and a price increase of 4.59% [5] - The wholesale and agency channel revenue increased by 19.73% year-on-year, accounting for 56% of total revenue, up by 1.8 percentage points [5] - Domestic revenue reached 165.42 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.79%, while international revenue surpassed 5.19 billion yuan, growing by 19.27% [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong brand moat and robust channel risk resistance, with a high certainty of achieving the 9% revenue growth target for 2025 [6] - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 75.43 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 1,741.44 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 862.28 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.66% and 15.38% respectively, slightly exceeding previous operational announcements [1]. - The revenue growth target for 2025 is set at 9%, which is considered realistic given the current market pressures [3]. - The company has a strong brand moat and robust channel risk resistance, with a high certainty of achieving the 9% revenue growth target for 2025 [6]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's main liquor business generated revenue of 1,706.12 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 92.01%, showing a year-on-year increase in volume of 13.73% and price increase of 1.9% [1][5]. - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 647 billion yuan for 2024, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of 75% [3]. - The company’s revenue from Moutai liquor reached 1,459 billion yuan in 2024, with a volume increase of 10.22% and price increase of 4.59% [5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1,908.81 billion yuan, 2,070.44 billion yuan, and 2,239.13 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 9.6%, 8.5%, and 8.1% [6][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 948 billion yuan, 1,030 billion yuan, and 1,116 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 9.9%, 8.7%, and 8.4% respectively [7][8].