公司报告 | 半年报点评 平安银行（000001） 证券研究报告 零售贷款质量大幅改善，营收增速出现向上拐点 事件： 平安银行发布 2025 半年度财报。2025 上半年，公司营业收入、归母净利润分别 同比-10.04%、-3.90%；不良率、拨备覆盖率分别为 1.05%、238.5%。 点评摘要： 营收增速出现向上改善拐点。2025 上半年，平安银行实现营收约 694 亿元，同比 -10.04%，环比提升 3.01pct，继 24H1 以来再现营收增速的向上拐点。营收结构 上，净利息收入 445 亿元（YoY-9.33%），占总营收 64.1%；非息净收入 249 亿 元，同比增长-11.30%，结构占比较一季度提升 3.5pct。拨备前利润 25Q1、25H1 增速为-12.92%、-10.43%，归母净利润同比增速分别为-5.60%、-3.90%。拨 备方面较去年同期释放约 37.03 亿元空间，反哺利润支持向上改善。 息差水平整体较为稳定。2025 上半年，平安银行净息差录得 1.80%，较 25Q1 小 幅下行 3bp。生息资产收益率录得 3.55%，较 2024 年末下行 42bp；计息负债成 本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for Q1 2025, but net profit experienced a decline due to rising tax rates, indicating mixed performance in financial results [1][2][3]. Revenue and Profitability - Revenue for Q1 2025 reached 1649.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, which is an improvement of 1.4 percentage points compared to 2024 [1][2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 543.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, a slowdown of 5.5 percentage points compared to 2024 [1][2]. Tax Impact - The effective tax rate for Q1 2025 rose to 20%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, which negatively impacted profit growth [3]. Asset and Loan Growth - Total assets grew by 6.9% year-on-year to 36 trillion yuan, with deposits increasing by 6.2% to 25.6 trillion yuan and loans rising by 8.3% to 22.6 trillion yuan [4]. - New loans in Q1 2025 amounted to 1.01 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.09 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [4]. Interest Margin - The interest margin decreased by 11 basis points to 1.29% in Q1 2025, primarily due to a larger decline in asset yields compared to improvements in liability costs [5]. - Estimated asset yield fell by 0.3 percentage points to 3.1%, influenced by a general decline in loan rates and LPR repricing [5]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income increased by 18.9% year-on-year, with fee income rising by 2.1% [6]. - Other non-interest income surged by 37.3%, with foreign exchange net losses increasing significantly by 668.5% [6]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.25%, with a provision coverage ratio of 198%, indicating steady asset quality [7]. - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio stood at 11.82%, with total capital adequacy at 17.98% [7]. Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 2404 billion, 2453 billion, and 2477 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.82, 0.83, and 0.84 yuan [8]. - Current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book ratio of 0.64, 0.58, and 0.53 for the respective years, suggesting a "buy" investment rating [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Apple's Chief Financial Officer expects a year-over-year revenue growth rate for the June quarter to be in the low to mid-single digits [1]

Core Insights - The company's revenue growth has significantly declined in Q1 2025 compared to the same period last year, primarily due to the impact of one-time asset disposals in the previous year [1] - Credit growth continues to rebound, which may alleviate the pressure on net interest margins [2] - The company's projected net profit growth for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 is modest, with estimates of 0.3%, 1.8%, and 1.6% respectively [3] Financial Performance - As of Q1 2025, the company's revenue, PPOP, and net profit attributable to shareholders showed year-on-year growth rates of 0.9%, -7.4%, and -3.6% respectively [1] - Net interest income decreased by 5.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure on net interest margins despite total assets growing by 6.8% [1] - The company experienced a significant decline in non-interest income, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.4% and a quarter-on-quarter drop of 44.8% [1] Credit and Asset Quality - Total assets and loan amounts grew by 6.8% and 6.0% year-on-year as of Q1 2025, with loan growth showing a continuous rebound over three consecutive quarters [2] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable, while the attention rate increased by 21 basis points [2] - The company’s provision coverage ratio and loan-to-deposit ratio decreased by 13.1 percentage points and 11 basis points respectively as of Q1 2025 [2] Valuation and Forecast - The projected book value per share (BVPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is estimated at 13.37, 13.92, and 14.47 yuan respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.65X, 0.62X, and 0.60X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3] - A valuation premium of 10% is applied due to the company's strong core tier one capital adequacy ratio and dividend rate, resulting in a reasonable value of 9.18 yuan per share for 2025 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 1,741.44 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 862.28 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.66% and 15.38% respectively, slightly exceeding previous operational announcements [1]. - The revenue growth target for 2025 is set at 9%, which is considered realistic given the current market pressures [3]. - The company has a strong brand moat and robust channel risk resistance, with a high certainty of achieving the 9% revenue growth target for 2025 [6]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's main liquor business generated revenue of 1,706.12 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 92.01%, showing a year-on-year increase in volume of 13.73% and price increase of 1.9% [1][5]. - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 647 billion yuan for 2024, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of 75% [3]. - The company’s revenue from Moutai liquor reached 1,459 billion yuan in 2024, with a volume increase of 10.22% and price increase of 4.59% [5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1,908.81 billion yuan, 2,070.44 billion yuan, and 2,239.13 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 9.6%, 8.5%, and 8.1% [6][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 948 billion yuan, 1,030 billion yuan, and 1,116 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 9.9%, 8.7%, and 8.4% respectively [7][8].