Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in the NASDAQ index, which has dropped 13% over the past four weeks, indicating concerns of an economic recession driven by tightening liquidity and weakening economic data [1] Economic Data and Trends - The Atlanta Fed has revised its Q1 GDP forecast from +3.9% to -2.4%, primarily due to declines in consumer spending and net exports [1] - Retail sales and actual personal consumption expenditure growth in January were significantly below expectations, with the proportion of credit card loans overdue by more than 90 days reaching a new high since 2012 [2] - The ISM manufacturing PMI new orders index fell by 6.5%, indicating a reversal in corporate new orders after a strong rebound post-election [2] Impact of Trump's Policies - Trump's policies are seen as having five major negative impacts on the economy: tariffs, immigration, layoffs, spending cuts, and "verbal expectation guidance" [2] - Tariffs on Mexico and Canada are predicted to significantly impact the economy, with a potential inflation increase of 0.86 percentage points by 2025 and a GDP reduction of about 0.1 percentage points [2] - Immigration policies have softened since the election, focusing mainly on deporting illegal immigrants with criminal records [3] Layoffs and Spending Cuts - The original target for spending cuts was $2 trillion, now revised to $1 trillion, with over 10,000 federal employees already laid off [4] - The layoffs are expected to have a ripple effect on state and local governments, as well as the education and healthcare sectors [4] Market Sentiment and Expectations - Trump's administration has been intentionally releasing negative expectations to guide the economy, suggesting that short-term discomfort may be acceptable for long-term structural transformation [5][6] - The trade deficit has reached a new high, which may also negatively impact Q1 GDP [7] Liquidity Concerns - The article highlights increasing liquidity pressures in the U.S. stock market, exacerbated by the Fed's balance sheet reduction and declining overnight reverse repo balances [11] - There is a noticeable shift in capital flows, with funds moving away from U.S. equities towards non-U.S. markets, particularly in China and Europe [11] Future Strategies - To counter recession expectations, the administration may focus on increasing private sector investment and expediting tax cuts to boost market confidence [13][14] - The Fed may be pressured to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy, potentially ending quantitative tightening or even restarting quantitative easing [16] Investment Outlook - The article proposes a four-quadrant framework for investment strategies based on the interplay between European fiscal expansion and U.S. recession expectations [18] - Continued U.S. recession expectations alongside European fiscal expansion may lead to a bearish outlook for the dollar and U.S. equities, favoring non-U.S. markets [18]

2月财新制造业PMI 50.8%，为近三个月最高，用工收缩率明显放缓。十四届全国人大三次会议将于 3月5日开幕，3月4日12时举行新闻发布会，大会发言人就大会议程和人大工作相关问题回答中外记 者提问。美国2月ISM制造业PMI为50.3%，较1月超预期回落，趋于停滞状态。美国对墨西哥和加拿 大商品征收25%的关税将于3月4日生效，对等关税将于4月2日开始征收。加拿大已经准备好一系列 可以立即反击的报复性措施。美股、中概股、原油、农产品普遍下跌，贵金属、基本金属、美债价 格普遍上涨。 重点品种： 股指、黄金、国债 股指 ：美国三大指数下跌，上一交易日股指回落调整为主，有色金属板块领涨，家用电器板块领跌， 全市成交额 1.66万亿元，其中IH2503下跌0.69%，IF2503下跌0.28%，IC2503上涨0.31%，IM2503下跌 0.23%。资金方面，2月28日融资余额减少178.58亿元至18871.70亿元。经过2月份快速上涨后，我们认 为短期有可能需要进行一段时间的消化整理，美国针对中国提高关税也会影响资金短期风险偏好，操作 上建议先观望。 黄金 ： 昨夜金银反弹。特朗普周一决定，从周二早些时候开始 ...

文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 摘要： 上周市场较为混乱， COMEX铜价周初再度对关税进行定价，主因特朗普强调对加拿大和墨西哥的关税会如期落地、并且开展针对 铜关税的2 3 2调查，再次引发了市场对关税定价的热情，但是周中美国的经济数据表现疲软，美债收益率应声回落，市场定价经济增 长放缓的预期较为强烈，金铜双双承压回落。 1、上周金铜显著下行 贵金属方面，上周COMEX黄金下跌2.79%，白银下跌4.39%；沪金2504合约下跌1.8%，沪银2504合约下跌3.07%。主要 工业金属价格中，COMEX铜、沪铜分别变动-0.6%、-0.43%。 2、关税调查启动，但宏观走弱令铜价承压 上周COMEX铜价宽幅震荡，周初一度走出反弹，但随后再次回落。上周市场较为混乱，COMEX铜价周初再度对关税进行定 价，主因特朗普强调对加拿大和墨西哥的关税会如期落地、并且开展针对铜关税的232调查，再次引发了市场对关税定价的热 情，但是周中美国的经济数据表现疲软，美债收益率应声回落，市场定价经济增长放缓的预期较为强烈，铜价承压回落，并 且维持震荡格局。 3、衰退预期再起，金价承压回落 本周美国衰退预期再起，主要因近期美 ...