Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.18%, the 10-year main contract down 0.08%, the 5-year main contract down 0.05%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.03% [1] - Major interbank bond yields rose, with the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 0.6 basis points to 1.8820%, the 10-year policy bank bond yield rising by 0.7 basis points to 1.7500%, the 10-year government bond yield up by 0.5 basis points to 1.6710%, and the 2-year government bond yield increasing by 1.5 basis points to 1.4075% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 226.2 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 119.7 billion yuan after accounting for maturing reverse repos [2] - Overnight pledged repo rates rose over 8 basis points to 1.42%, while 7-day pledged repo rates increased over 6 basis points to 1.53% [2] - The central bank plans to conduct a 14 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on July 15, 2025, indicating a proactive approach to maintain liquidity in the banking system [2] Fundamental Data - In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 1.17 trillion yuan and corporate loans increasing by 11.57 trillion yuan [3] - RMB deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan, with household deposits up by 10.77 trillion yuan [3] - The social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, indicating improvements in government bond financing and corporate short-term loans [3] - June exports (in USD) grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while imports increased by 1.1%, resulting in a trade surplus of 114.77 billion USD [3] Operational Recommendations - Current fundamental data indicates resilient export growth and positive social financing signals, although uncertainties in foreign trade and weak domestic demand remain concerns [4] - The central bank's increased reverse repurchase operations may improve market sentiment towards the bond market [4] - A short-term observation strategy is recommended for government bonds, with potential adjustments to increase holdings after stabilization [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the bond market, highlighting the impact of liquidity conditions and geopolitical events on bond yields and market sentiment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The liquidity in the market is slightly tightening, with long-term bond yields experiencing a minor increase [1]. - The central bank conducted a 22.05 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 12.15 billion yuan due to maturing reverse repos and treasury cash deposits [1]. - The interbank funding rates remain stable, with DR001 around 1.37% and DR007 around 1.51% [1]. Group 2: Bond Market Performance - The 10-year government bond yield opened slightly lower at 1.636% and fluctuated to a low of 1.632% before recovering to around 1.64% [3]. - Recent reports indicate that the yields on 20-year and 50-year government bonds have decreased by 5 basis points over the past week, with the 50-year bond yield dropping by 12 basis points in June [4]. - The average wealth per capita in China is projected to grow by approximately 5% year-on-year in 2024, while the median wealth is expected to decline by 6.3% [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Impact - The article notes concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, which have influenced market sentiment [3]. - The overall sentiment across various asset classes remains stable despite these geopolitical tensions, with the stock market showing a low open but recovering throughout the day [2][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (May 12 - May 18), treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly due to factors such as the unexpected progress of China - US trade negotiations and marginal convergence of the capital market. Looking ahead to next week, the capital market is expected to see a slight increase in interest rates during the tax period, and the market sentiment will remain weak. Although the curve is expected to steepen in the long - term, the process will be tortuous, and there is a possibility of flattening in the short - term [13][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - Treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly. On Monday, due to the unexpected statement of China - US trade negotiations, futures opened lower, then strengthened slightly and finally weakened significantly. On Tuesday, they turned from weak to strong. On Wednesday, they declined slightly. On Thursday, long - term futures performed strongly. On Friday, the curve flattened bearishly in the morning and the decline narrowed in the afternoon. As of May 16, the settlement prices of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures main continuous contracts were 102.368, 105.695, 108.460, and 118.880 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.012, +0.005, - 0.015, and - 0.520 yuan compared to last weekend [13] 3.1.2 Next Week's Views - The capital market will be the focus. During the tax period, the capital market is expected to be slightly tighter, and the market sentiment will be weak. Although the curve is expected to steepen in the long - term, the process is tortuous, and there may be a slight flattening in the short - term. The capital interest rate is expected to rise slightly during the tax period, and the market's concern about the capital market persists [15] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 77 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 939.5 billion yuan and a net financing of 707.974 billion yuan. The net financing of local government bonds increased slightly, while that of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [23] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields increased. As of May 16, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.48%, 1.55%, 1.68%, and 1.88% respectively, up 4.73, 6.80, 4.60, and 4.25 bp from last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread widened, while the 10Y - 5Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads narrowed [27] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures increased, while the open interests decreased [35][38] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - The opportunity for the cash - and - carry strategy decreased significantly. The basis of each variety is expected to gradually return to a normal level [42] 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - The inter - delivery spreads of each variety generally widened in the opposite direction and are expected to gradually converge to 0 in the oscillation. However, the time for deploying this strategy is limited [47] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 475.1 billion yuan. As of May 16, capital interest rates such as R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week all increased. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank repurchase increased [51][53] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10Y US Treasury yield rose slightly. As of May 9, the US dollar index increased by 0.56% to 100.9828, and the 10Y US Treasury yield rose 6 bp to 4.43%. The spread between China and the US 10Y Treasury bonds was inverted by 275 bp [60] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board, while agricultural product prices showed mixed trends [64] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - Next week, with weak market sentiment, short - term defense is recommended. Aggressive investors can consider buying long - term varieties on dips. In the long - term, the curve is expected to steepen, but the process is tortuous. The opportunity for the cash - and - carry strategy has decreased significantly, and attention can be paid to the strategy of the basis returning to 0. The strategy of widening the inter - delivery spread can be tried, with a quick - in - quick - out approach [2][65]

当市场突破关键点位时，我们是不知道到底是真突破还是假突破的，只有事后才能看的清楚，用一种傻瓜式的操作就是，一旦突破，就立刻执行入场或出 场的相应操作，而如果是假突破的，则再立刻反向操作。 ——笔记哥《应对》 -------------------------- 资金面边际收敛，长债收益率涨跌不一。 央行今日公开市场开展373亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.50%。今日1903亿元逆回购到期。净回笼1530亿元。 资金面延续昨日收敛态势，DR001与DR007均上行约10BP。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2024. 12. 5) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.62 | | | 2. 63 | 3 | 73192.00 | -1916. 97 ...

离场后，无论是冲动性离，还是计划性离场，过去的都让他们过去，这笔交易已经结束，下笔交易跟这笔交易没有任何的关联或关系，不要把上笔交易的 盈利或亏损，作为下笔交易入场的原因。 下笔交易的入场，与上笔交易无关，只与交易系统的信号有关 ，只要新的信号出现，就入场，没有，就等待。 ——笔记哥《交易》 【笔记20241113— 牛X=川老板+马老板（-供给担忧-股市小幅上涨+地产政策未超预期-资金面收敛=中上)】 资金面均衡，长债收益率明显上行。 央行今日公开市场开展2330亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.50%。今日173亿元逆回购到期。净投放2157亿元。 资金面较昨日有所改善，但任然较为收敛。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2024. 11. 13) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 藏尚利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 ...