朱杰进认为，美元霸权的建立始于布雷顿森林体系，其"实力"与"虚力"的匹配曾支撑美国主导的国际货 币秩序。但1971 年 "尼克松冲击"后，美元虽脱离黄金锚定，却凭借SWIFT系统网络效应、国际治理体 系授权等"虚力"延续霸权。当前美国推动稳定币发展，美国官方虽宣称旨在巩固美元的霸权地位，但此 举实际上可能会削弱SWIFT体系以及整个美元霸权的传统优势，存在"自毁长城"的风险。 圆桌会上，复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院国际政治系教授朱杰进围绕稳定币发展与美元霸权的深层 关联展开分析，指出稳定币在跨境支付领域的崛起可能对国际货币体系产生结构性影响，在一定程度上 会削弱美元霸权。 然而，随着美国在世界经济中的实力不断衰落，美元霸权本身的内在困境逐渐显现。1971 年的 "尼克松 冲击" 中，美国表示不再承担 "双挂钩" 的责任，但此时 "虚力" 的作用凸显出来 —— 美元依然被视为国 际储备货币。 2025年6月17日，美国参议院通过稳定币相关法案后，美国国内出现了诸多批评声音，认为该法案会损 害美元霸权。但美国财长贝森特认为，稳定币将提升美元霸权。实际上，在稳定币发行的过程中，美国 的国内政治考量显然要优先于国际 ...

稳定币抬头的洗钱风险值得警惕。 近日，据媒体报道，义乌已有零星商户接收稳定币，虽未出现传闻中"月流水10亿美元"的盛况，却也给 市场敲响了警钟。这种看似便捷的支付方式，若放任其游走在监管边缘，很可能成为洗钱分子的"暗 道"。不仅将扰乱现有的金融秩序，还可能冲击实体经济秩序。 不同于币值大起大落的比特币，稳定币有一套维持币值稳定的特殊机制，生来就带着"交易工具"的属 性。 一方面，由于匿名化、去中心化的手段，用户身份通常以钱包地址呈现，而非真实姓名。使得资金流向 难以追踪，为洗钱分子掩盖资金来源提供了便利。 技术上也有办法，区块链虽然藏得住人，却记着每一笔账，可以开发专门的监测工具，顺着交易记录追 根溯源。 普及稳定币风险知识也至关重要。要让商户明白，看似轻松的交易背后，稍有不慎就可能卷入违法漩 涡。 此外，由于稳定币跨境流动特性，单一国家的监管难以奏效，需加强国际协作，建立跨境反洗钱信息共 享机制，联合打击利用稳定币进行的跨国洗钱活动。 当然，跨境支付确实需要创新。以中国香港试点与数字人民币协同发展的合规路径已在探索之中。或许 将来，在外贸集中的自贸区，试点离岸人民币稳定币，既能满足商家需求，又能把交易圈在阳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The adoption of stablecoins for cross-border payments is still limited among merchants in key Chinese markets, with many expressing a lack of understanding and concerns about compliance and costs [1][2]. Group 1: Merchant Awareness and Usage - Most merchants in Yiwu and Shenzhen are unaware of stablecoins, with only a few expressing interest in using them for transactions [1][2]. - A small number of merchants indicated they might consider using stablecoins for international payments, but none reported having completed such transactions [2]. - Merchants primarily rely on traditional payment methods like cash and Alipay for foreign transactions, with one merchant mentioning a recent $30,000 transfer via Alipay [2]. Group 2: Stablecoin Characteristics and Market Dynamics - Stablecoins, such as USDT, are pegged to fiat currencies, providing a more stable alternative compared to other cryptocurrencies [1][4]. - The market for stablecoins has gained traction globally, particularly following legislative progress in the US and Hong Kong [1]. - The exchange process for stablecoins involves "U merchants" who facilitate the conversion between stablecoins and fiat currencies, often charging fees and setting minimum transaction amounts [3]. Group 3: Regulatory and Compliance Issues - The use of stablecoins for cross-border payments in China faces significant regulatory challenges, as current laws prohibit the use of virtual currencies for such transactions [4][5]. - Legal experts emphasize that while personal trading of virtual currencies may be permissible, using them for business transactions is fraught with compliance risks [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 39.00, representing a 7% upside from the current price of RMB 31.92 [4][10]. Core Insights - The company has established a cross-border payment subsidiary, NovaPay, and obtained a USA MSB license, which lays the foundation for its cross-border payment operations [5][11]. - The MSB license allows the company to legally operate in various currency-related services, including currency exchange, remittance, and digital currency transactions [12]. - The report highlights the promising cross-border payment market driven by RMB internationalization and the increasing demand for localized payment solutions as Chinese enterprises expand overseas [13]. Financial Summary - The company's projected financials indicate a revenue increase from RMB 8,250 million in 2023 to RMB 11,705 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3% [3]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow significantly from RMB 1,004 million in 2023 to RMB 1,916 million in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 22.0% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast is set at RMB 1.30 for 2025, RMB 1.52 for 2026, and RMB 1.86 for 2027, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 30x for 2025 [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating an expected relative return exceeding the benchmark by over 10% in the next 12-18 months [4][21]. Core Insights - The People's Bank of China has revised the CIPS system rules to enhance the framework for cross-border RMB payments, aiming to facilitate the integration of payment channels and improve clearing efficiency [7][4]. - The updated rules expand the scope of CIPS operations to include additional activities approved by the central bank, thereby supporting the growth and functionality of the CIPS system [7][4]. - The Cross-border Pay Link, launched in Hong Kong, allows for real-time, cost-effective remittances between Mainland China and Hong Kong, significantly improving the efficiency of cross-border transactions [7][4]. Summary by Sections CIPS System Rule Updates - The People's Bank of China released a draft for public comment on the CIPS system rules, focusing on account management, business processing, settlement mechanisms, and risk management [4][7]. - The revisions aim to adapt the rules established in 2018 to current business developments and participant needs, enhancing management standards for CIPS participants [4][7]. Cross-border Payment Innovations - The Cross-border Pay Link, which became operational on June 22, connects the fast payment systems of Mainland China and Hong Kong, allowing residents to conduct cross-border remittances efficiently [4][7]. - This system reduces the remittance process time and costs by minimizing intermediary steps and directly connecting payment infrastructures [4][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on cross-border payment service providers such as Newland Digital Technology, Xgd Inc, Lakala Payment, and Yeahka Limited, as well as financial IT service providers like Yusys Technologies and Sinodata [7][4].

Core Insights - The implementation of the Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation in July 2025 marks a significant step in the regulation of stablecoins, enhancing cross-border payment efficiency by over 90% and reducing costs to one-tenth of traditional methods [1][3] - The expansion of the digital yuan pilot to 50 cities, with annual transactions exceeding 1 trillion yuan, highlights China's advancements in digital currency, prompting major tech companies like Ant Group and JD.com to invest in compliant stablecoins [3] - Stablecoins are positioned as a bridge between cryptocurrencies and traditional finance, addressing long-standing issues in cross-border trade such as high fees, slow settlements, and low transparency, with the market for cross-border payments growing at an annual rate exceeding 200% [3] Company Summaries - **Four方精创**: A key service provider for the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, developing the mBridge cross-border clearing module and offering a platform for stablecoin issuance, with potential annual revenue exceeding 250 million HKD if the stablecoin market reaches 50 billion HKD [5] - **拉卡拉**: The only domestic third-party payment institution with a full license for cross-border RMB payments, supporting stablecoin payments through 5 million POS terminals, with a projected revenue of 200 million yuan from stablecoin-related activities in 2025 [6] - **海联金汇**: Holds the only MSO license among A-share companies, with significant market share in Southeast Asia and participation in the mBridge project, reporting a 950% year-on-year increase in net profit in Q1 2025 [6] - **恒宝股份**: A leading supplier of hardware security modules for digital currencies, with a market share exceeding 30%, providing hardware for stablecoin transactions and participating in the mBridge project [7] - **新大陆**: A global leader in smart terminals, integrating digital yuan and stablecoin functionalities, with a projected order of 200,000 terminals in Southeast Asia in 2025 [7] - **京北方**: The only A-share company explicitly linked to stablecoin technology, providing underlying settlement technology for major banks and participating in the mBridge project [8] - **雄帝科技**: Developed a dual-track payment system compatible with both digital yuan and stablecoins, providing key services for the Hong Kong pilot [8] - **华峰超纤**: Collaborating with JD Wallet to test stablecoin retail scenarios in the UAE, with a focus on programmable payment protocols [9] - **恒生电子**: Provides core system support for Ant Group's stablecoin operations, with a significant market share in asset management systems [10] - **数字认证**: Supplies key management services for stablecoins to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, with a strong presence in government blockchain projects [10]

截至2025年7月9日 13:13，中证金融科技主题指数(930986)上涨0.38%，成分股大智慧(601519)上涨10.04%，信雅达(600571)上涨10.01%，金证股份(600446)上 涨8.62%，京北方(002987)上涨8.50%，中亦科技(301208)上涨7.28%。金融科技ETF(516860)上涨0.21%， 冲击5连涨。最新价报1.45元。拉长时间看，截至 2025年7月8日，金融科技ETF近1周累计上涨3.67%。 流动性方面，金融科技ETF盘中换手6.98%，成交7672.75万元。拉长时间看，截至7月8日，金融科技ETF近1周日均成交1.75亿元。 消息面上，A股市场跨境支付、多元金融、数字货币概念股震荡走高。此前央行修订《人民币跨境支付系统业务规则》并公开征求意见，市场预期稳定币在 跨境支付及清结算领域的应用可能加速落地，推动相关概念股上涨。 机构指出，AI Agent 有望成为应用新范式，新一代 AI 技术带来产品能力及交互方式的全面变革。全新的技术栈与开发范式赋予产品更广阔的创新拓展空间 和更快速的创意迭代进程，AI 技术也在用户侧深刻重塑用户行为模式与交互习惯。开 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current market sentiment is at a high level, with a score of 88, categorizing it as "overheated" [6][10][22] - Recent policy support and improved market sentiment have contributed to a bullish trend in the market [10] Market Themes Tracking - **Data Theme**: The National Data Bureau and the State Administration for Market Regulation have introduced measures to enhance data circulation efficiency, potentially increasing efficiency by 30% [7] - **Cross-Border Payment Theme**: The People's Bank of China has released a draft for the rules governing the Renminbi cross-border payment system, aiming to simplify participation conditions for foreign institutions [7] - **Innovative Drug Theme**: The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission have issued measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, emphasizing the use of medical insurance data for drug research [7] Major Capital Inflows - The report lists the top ten stocks with significant net inflows, including Zhongyou Capital (90.12 million), Pengding Holdings (64.11 million), and others [11][12] Major Capital Outflows - The report also highlights the top ten stocks with significant net outflows, such as Changshan Pharmaceutical (-83.03 million) and Jinyi Culture (-79.62 million) [13][23] Financing and Margin Trading - The report provides insights into financing net purchases and margin trading, indicating investor sentiment towards specific stocks and sectors [23]

【导读】稳定币引爆市场，公募解读投资机会 "稳定币行情"再躁动。 7月8日，港股金涌投资盘中股价一度涨超650%，创下近年来罕见涨幅。市场异动的背后，是一则合作 公告的发布。就在前一天，金涌投资宣布和金融科技公司AnchorX签了个战略合作备忘录，重点是搞最 近很火的"稳定币"。 而在上一个交易日，A股、港股市场中，跨境支付、稳定币概念股等也集体走强。 在基金公司看来，作为锚定法定货币或大宗商品价值的加密货币，稳定币凭借储备资产与算法机制维持 价格稳定，既具备加密货币的便捷性和去中心化特点，又有相对稳定的价值。 北信瑞丰基金基金经理于军华表示，所谓的稳定币，是一种与信用货币或黄金等具有稳定性的储备资产 挂钩的数字货币，通常被认为是介于加密货币和法定货币之间的沟通桥梁，其目的在于保持法定货币与 加密货币之间交易时的价格稳定。 在于军华看来，法币稳定币本质上更接近传统的信用货币，安全效率高，但也是去中心化的。稳定币有 独立受监管的发行方，一般要定期接受审计。 稳定币有什么作用？ 华富基金认为，首先，作为锚定法定货币或大宗商品价值的加密货币，稳定币连接了现实世界与加密世 界；其次，是效率的巨大提升。稳定币能让跨境支 ...

服务贸易领域的8项措施尤为关键——包括优化跨国公司跨境 资金集中运营管理政策等4条推广到其他自贸试验区。8项中， 有6项的责任分工均与中国人民银行及金融监管总局有关。 作者：欧阳晓红 封图：图虫创意 一场对中国金融改革意义深远的吹风会或悄然改写制度型开放"规则"。 7月3日，国务院印发的《关于做好自由贸易试验区全面对接国际高标准经贸规则推进高水平制度 型开放试点措施复制推广工作的通知》（国函〔2025〕68号，下称《通知》），以及次日亮相的 《中国人民银行关于〈人民币跨境支付系统业务规则（征求意见稿）〉》（下称《业务规则（征求 意见稿）》），从贸易便利化到跨境支付清算，从自贸港离岸账户到数字人民币跨境，多维交织出 一幅制度演进的图景。 7月4日，国新办召开政策例行吹风会，聚焦中国（上海）自贸试验区全面对接国际高标准经贸规 则试点成效及复制推广安排。商务部部长助理唐文弘介绍，为用好上海自贸试验区制度型开放试点 经验，在更大范围释放制度创新红利，国务院印发《通知》，将试点成熟、成效显著、风险可控的 77条试点措施向其他自贸试验区或在全国范围内复制推广。 《通知》将其中的34条试 点措施向 其他自贸试验区推广，43 ...