Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" [4] Core Viewpoints - The current market for pig farming shows a low price fluctuation, with the average price of live pigs at 14.57 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 0.48% [19] - The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 127.92 kg, which has increased by 0.68 kg week-on-week, indicating a rising inventory level [19] - The report highlights a significant increase in piglet sales, with a year-on-year growth of 181.22% in the first two months of the year [2] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The agricultural sector outperformed the market, with the agricultural index rising by 2.84% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 1.39% increase [10] - The sub-sectors within agriculture showed varied performance, with aquaculture and animal health sectors leading the gains [10] 2. Key Data Tracking - The average price of piglets is 34.08 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4.03% [19] - The average weight of pigs sold has increased, indicating a trend towards higher weights in the market [19] - The inventory levels in slaughterhouses are rising, with a cold storage capacity utilization rate of 13.76%, up by 0.44 percentage points [19] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on pig farming companies with high output and cost recovery, specifically mentioning Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Shennong Group [3] - It suggests that the feed and veterinary sectors will benefit from a rebound in pig prices, recommending Hai Da Group for investment [3] - The seed industry is highlighted as having investment opportunities due to stabilizing grain prices and advancements in genetically modified crops, with companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang being recommended [3] 4. Market Trends - The report notes that the pig farming sector is experiencing a significant increase in output, with a total of 2,806.15 million pigs sold in January and February, a year-on-year increase of 20.92% [2] - The prices of feed ingredients such as corn and wheat are showing upward trends, while soybean meal prices are declining, indicating a mixed outlook for feed costs [42]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the pig farming sector shows value for low-positioning, with a recovery in profitability expected alongside consumer demand recovery. The current valuation of the pig farming sector is at a relatively low level, indicating potential for investment [6][25] - The report emphasizes the ongoing support for pig prices from the entry of supplementary breeding in Northeast China, which is expected to stabilize prices in the short term [4][11] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - Recent supplementary breeding has entered Northeast China, which may support pig prices. As of March 14, the national average price for live pigs was 14.57 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.83% [4][11] - The average daily slaughter volume of sample enterprises was 142,500 pigs, down 90 pigs from the previous week, indicating weak demand [4][11] Weekly Perspective - The pig farming sector's low-positioning value is becoming apparent, with a recovery in profitability expected as consumer demand rebounds. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [6][25] - The pet food market in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.64% from 2025 to 2028, driven by rising consumer spending and domestic brands gaining market share [6][25] Market Performance (March 10-14) - The agriculture index outperformed the market by 1.45 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.39% and the agriculture index rising by 2.84% [31][33] - Key stocks that led the gains included Xue Rong Biological, Western Animal Husbandry, and Zhong Ji Health, with increases of 43.95%, 18.29%, and 13.13% respectively [31][35] Price Tracking (March 10-14) - The average price of live pigs was 14.65 yuan/kg, up 1.03% from the previous week. The average price of piglets was 33.87 yuan/kg, up 3.39% from the previous week [41][43] - The average price of white feather chickens was 7.11 yuan/kg, up 7.89% from the previous week, while the average price of yellow feather chickens was 10.45 yuan/kg, reflecting a price increase [40][46][47] Key News (March 10-14) - The USDA's March report adjusted global corn and wheat production upwards while lowering rice production forecasts. Corn production was increased by 1.7 million tons to 1.214 billion tons, and wheat production was increased by 3.44 million tons to 797 million tons [36]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the release of the 2025 Central Document No. 1, which emphasizes enhancing the supply guarantee capabilities of important agricultural products, including grain and livestock [4][11] - The report indicates that the pig price is expected to experience short-term bottom fluctuations but with a marginal upward trend due to various factors including seasonal demand and supply dynamics [5][13] - The report identifies low-positioning value in the pig sector and a strengthening logic for domestic pet products, driven by consumption recovery and market dynamics [6][22][24] Summary by Sections Central Document Insights - The 2025 Central Document No. 1 focuses on enhancing the supply guarantee capabilities of important agricultural products through various measures, including improving crop yields, supporting stable development in livestock, and advancing agricultural technology [4][11] Pig Market Analysis - As of February 28, 2025, the national average price of pigs is 14.51 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.38 yuan/kg but a year-on-year increase of 0.58 yuan/kg [5][13] - The average weight of pigs at market is increasing, with a current average of 126.52 kg per head, which may exert pressure on short-term pig prices [18][22] - The report anticipates that the price center for pigs may gradually rise in Q2 2025 due to factors such as seasonal disease impacts and feed price increases [5][13] Market Performance - The agricultural sector outperformed the broader market by 0.83 percentage points during the week of February 24-28, 2025, with the agricultural index declining by 0.89% compared to a 1.72% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [7][25] - Key stocks such as Honghui Fruits and Vegetables, Fucheng Shares, and Yuegui Shares showed significant gains during this period [25][32] Price Tracking - Prices for various agricultural products, including white feather chickens, bass, and shrimp, have shown an upward trend, with corn futures also increasing by 0.88% [35][42] - The average price of piglets is 33.01 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.68 yuan/kg, while the average price of white meat is 19.66 yuan/kg, up by 0.19 yuan/kg [36][40]