2025.08.21 在上月的表决中，联邦公开市场委员会以9-2的表决结果决定按兵不动。美联储负责监管的副主席米歇 尔·鲍曼和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒都投票反对维持基准利率不变的决定，转而支持降息25个基点。 这是自1993年以来，首次有多名美联储理事投下反对票。 会议纪要称："几乎所有与会者都认为，在本次会议上将联邦基金利率的目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50% 是合适的。" 本文字数：1579，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 北京时间周四（21日）凌晨，美联储公布今年7月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）政策会议纪要。 纪要显示，由于新贸易关税的不确定影响，通胀风险仍然很高。虽然有呼吁降息的声音，大多数政策制 定者认为，货币政策可以再等一段时间，以获得更多关于关税对通胀影响的证据。 7月会议立场仍偏谨慎 然而，美联储也有谨慎的理由，特朗普政府的激进关税有可能重新引发通货膨胀。7月份美国核心消费 者价格指数（CPI）升至3.1%的五个月高位，美国生产者价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.9%，核心PPI同比 增幅3.7%，为今年3月份以来的最高水平。 牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schw ...

本文字数：1579，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 2025.08. 21 由于在7月利率会议两天后发布的美国劳动力市场报告疲软，有市场观点认为这份会议纪要略显"陈 旧"。 北京时间周四（21日）凌晨，美联储公布今年7月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）政策会议纪要。 纪要显示，由于新贸易关税的不确定影响，通胀风险仍然很高。虽然有呼吁降息的声音，大多数政策 制定者认为，货币政策可以再等一段时间，以获得更多关于关税对通胀影响的证据。 7月会议立场仍偏谨慎 在上月的表决中，联邦公开市场委员会以9-2的表决结果决定按兵不动。美联储负责监管的副主席米 歇尔·鲍曼和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒都投票反对维持基准利率不变的决定，转而支持降息25个 基点。这是自1993年以来，首次有多名美联储理事投下反对票。 会议纪要称："几乎所有与会者都认为，在本次会议上将联邦基金利率的目标区间维持在4.25%至 4.50%是合适的。" 会议纪要显示，官员们继续就关税对通胀的影响及其政策立场的限制程度进行积极辩论。"关于通胀 前景，与会者普遍预计通胀将在短期内上升。" 一些政策制定者评论说，目前的联邦基金利率水平可能不会远高于 ...

Economic Growth - Malaysia's GDP grew by 4.4% year-on-year in Q2, maintaining a steady growth trend despite a complex external environment, slightly below the earlier forecast of 4.5% but above market expectations of 4.3% [1] - Seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 2.1% quarter-on-quarter, significantly higher than the 0.7% growth in Q1, indicating economic resilience [1] Domestic Demand - Strong domestic demand was a key driver of economic growth, with household consumption rising by 5.3% year-on-year and public consumption increasing by 6.4% in Q2 [1] - Government policies, such as raising minimum wages and adjusting civil servant salaries, enhanced consumer purchasing power, contributing to a thriving consumption market [1] - Private and public investments grew by 10.2% and 6.8%, respectively, further supporting economic expansion [1] Sector Performance - The services sector grew by 5.1% year-on-year, driven by active performance in wholesale and retail, as well as food and beverage sub-sectors [2] - Manufacturing sector growth slowed but still achieved a 3.7% year-on-year increase, with electrical, electronic, and optical products showing sustained growth [2] - Agriculture and construction sectors also reported growth rates of 2.1% and 12.1%, respectively [2] Labor Market - Total employment in Malaysia increased by 2.9% year-on-year, reaching 16.86 million, with an unemployment rate stable at 3%, down 5.7% from the previous year [2] - Labor force participation rate rose to 70.8%, indicating a robust labor market that supports household consumption and sustainable economic growth [2] Trade Performance - Despite challenges, Malaysia's trade performance showed some highlights, with a significant 72.6% drop in net exports due to reduced commodity exports, particularly in mining [2] - Strong performance in electrical and electronic product exports partially offset the overall decline in exports [2] - Malaysia's important position in regional supply chains and trade cooperation with other countries provided some buffer against export market pressures [2] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Malaysia's inflation remained moderate in Q2, with the overall inflation rate decreasing from 1.5% in Q1 to 1.3%, and core inflation holding steady at 1.8% [3] - The decline in fuel prices and a slowdown in food price increases were the main reasons for the drop in inflation rates, providing stability for consumer purchasing power and room for monetary policy adjustments [3] - The central bank expects overall inflation to remain moderate, ranging between 1.5% and 2.3% for the year [3] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that Malaysia's economy may face challenges in the second half of the year, with potential further slowdown in exports [3] - However, continued domestic demand growth and stable investment activities are expected to provide some support for the economy [3] - The recovery of the tourism sector and the advancement of infrastructure projects are anticipated to inject new momentum into the economy [3]

Group 1 - The UK's inflation rate rose to 3.8% in July, the highest level since January 2024, significantly above the Bank of England's target of 2% [1][2] - Major contributors to the inflation increase include rising costs of airfares and food [2] - The Bank of England anticipates inflation may peak at 4% in September, with a gradual decline expected thereafter [2][3] Group 2 - The UK labor market remains tight, contributing upward pressure on prices, with wage growth around 5% complicating the Bank of England's efforts to reduce inflation to its target [3] - The current inflation level in the UK exceeds that of the US, which reported a July inflation rate of 2.7%, and is also higher than the Eurozone, where inflation is expected to remain near the European Central Bank's target of 2% [2]

（原标题：加纳面临贫困失业双重压力） 报告指出，加纳近期经济危机期间伴随剧烈通货膨胀，食品、交通和其他 必需品价格飙升，全国各地的家庭陷入困境。许多贫困的加纳人从事农业或小 型服务业，这些行业发展太慢，无法提供稳定、高薪的工作，通胀导致原本就 脆弱的收入迅速缩水。2023年，许多家庭即使每天收入3美元也难以满足基本 生活需求。若按照更广泛的贫困标准（即每日生活费不足4.20美元），2024年 加纳仍有57.2%的人口处于贫困状态。 报告同时指出，加纳面对的关键挑战不仅在于增长，还在于结构。加纳的 工业过多地依赖资本密集型模式，使用机械设备，而没有为不断增长的劳动力 创造足够的就业机会。2012年至2023年间，劳动年龄人口增加了270万，但净 就业人数仅增加了25万。过去十年创造的就业岗位大多集中在低生产率行业， 而制造业和高价值服务业的增长有限。这种劳动力市场的缺口威胁着加纳的发 展前景和其享受人口红利的能力。 综合加纳媒体8月18日报道，世界银行第九次加纳经济更新报告显示，加 纳的全国贫困率已从2017年的39%上升至40%。 ...

Economic Development - The core argument suggests that China's economic growth targets should not be based solely on estimates of "potential economic growth rates" due to considerable uncertainty in these estimates [4][5][6] - The estimation of China's potential economic growth rate varies widely among scholars, ranging from 5% to 8%, and there is a lack of official estimates from authoritative government bodies [5][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of using a trial-and-error approach in setting economic growth targets, advocating for expansionary fiscal policies when indicators such as inflation and employment are low [7] - Long-term factors influencing economic performance should not be used to explain short-term economic changes, as many intermediate factors affect current economic growth [8][9] - Macroeconomic regulation and structural reform are not mutually exclusive; both are necessary to address complex economic issues [10][11] - The article discusses the significance of the "Four Trillion Yuan Stimulus Plan" and its long-term effects on China's economic growth and financial stability [17][18] - It highlights the relationship between monetary policy and real estate regulation, noting that fluctuations in monetary policy often correlate with changes in housing prices [29][31] - The article critiques the belief that inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, presenting evidence of instances where inflation rates did not align with monetary supply growth [22][23][24] - It concludes that the lessons learned from over 20 years of macroeconomic regulation in China emphasize the importance of maintaining growth as a fundamental objective [33]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Economic growth shows a slowdown in the decline of container shipping freight rate indices, with power plant daily consumption falling from a high level, and demand - side indicators showing mixed trends [1][4]. - Inflation presents a situation where pork prices are slowly falling at a low level, and there are fluctuations in CPI and PPI components [2][4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Economic Growth: Slowdown in the Decline of Container Shipping Freight Rate Indices 1.1 Production: Power Plant Daily Consumption Falls from a High Level - Power plant daily consumption has declined. On August 19, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 912,000 tons, a 4.5% drop from August 12. On August 14, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.369 million tons, a 5.3% drop from August 6 [4][11]. - Blast furnace operating rates fluctuated slightly. On August 15, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from August 8, while the capacity utilization rate was 90.2%, up 0.2 percentage points. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills remained flat at 92.6% [4][17]. - Tire operating rates were weakly stable. On August 14, the operating rate of truck - used all - steel tires was 63.1%, up 2.1 percentage points from August 7, and that of car - used semi - steel tires was 72.1%, down 2.3 percentage points [4][19]. 1.2 Demand: Slowdown in the Decline of Container Shipping Freight Rate Indices - The decline in the month - on - month sales of new homes in 30 cities slowed down. From August 1 to 19, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 179,000 square meters, down 6.1% from July, 15.0% from August last year, and 32.4% from August 2023 [4][24]. - The retail sales of the auto market are gradually picking up. In August, retail sales increased by 2% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 20% year - on - year [4][27]. - Steel prices generally fell. On August 19, rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled prices decreased by 3.5%, 3.1%, 2.8%, and 0.2% respectively compared to August 12 [4][32]. - Cement prices generally rebounded. On August 19, the national cement price index rose 1.4% from August 12, with prices in East China and the Yangtze River region rising 4.4% and 4.3% respectively [4][33]. - Glass prices stopped falling and rebounded. On August 19, the active glass futures contract price was 1,215 yuan/ton, up 13.9% from August 12 [4][37]. - The decline of container shipping freight rate indices slowed down. On August 15, the CCFI index decreased by 0.6% from August 8, and the SCFI index decreased by 2.0% [4][40]. 2. Inflation: Slow Fall of Pork Prices at a Low Level 2.1 CPI: Slow Fall of Pork Prices at a Low Level - Pork prices are slowly falling at a low level. On August 19, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.2 yuan/kg, a 0.2% drop from August 12 [4][46]. - The agricultural product price index is slowly rising. On August 19, the agricultural product wholesale price index rose 0.8% from August 12, with different fluctuations in various varieties [4][51]. 2.2 PPI: Weak Fluctuation of Oil Prices - Oil prices are weakly fluctuating. On August 19, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $67.6 and $62.4 per barrel respectively, down 0.01% and 1.3% from August 12 [4][54]. - Copper and aluminum prices declined. On August 19, the LME 3 - month copper and aluminum prices decreased by 0.2% and 1.4% respectively compared to August 12 [4][58]. - The month - on - month increase of the domestic commodity index narrowed. On August 19, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 2.5% from August 12, and the CRB index decreased by 0.3% from August 11 [4][58].

一、【第400期直播回放】 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 有朋友问，微笑曲线的左侧和右侧，为啥会交替出现？ A股港股，当前处于微笑曲线的哪个阶段？还在低迷的消费等品种，啥时候会涨起来？ 为啥上市公司的盈利会长期增长呢？ 二、【部分直播课内容如下】 1 . 定投微笑曲线 在浮亏阶段坚持定投，不断降低持仓成本，这样之后不需要涨回原来的位置，就可以开始盈利了。 这就是我们经常提到的定投微笑曲线。 我们要做的，是在低估浮亏的时候坚持定投，积累更多便宜的份额。 2. 指数基金收益公式 那这个微笑曲线是咋来的，为何会有左侧下跌，又有右侧上涨？ 在今晚的直播课里，螺丝钉详细介绍了这些问题。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 0820 」即可观看直播回放。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） 这就回到我们经常说的，指数基金的收益公式。 是指数基金之父约翰·博格提出的。 指数基金净值=估值*盈利+分红。 其中， 估值在一定范围内波动，主要是对一轮牛熊市影响大。 放在长期20年的维度，估值对指数长期收益影响就不大了。 指数背后公司的盈利长期上涨，我们可以获得盈利上涨的收益。 这也是指数基金长期收益 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Canada's July CPI shows a slight slowdown in consumer price increases, with year-on-year growth at 1.7%, down from 1.9% in June, and below the median expectation of 1.8% from Bloomberg [1] - The July CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month, matching the previous month's growth and meeting expectations [1] - The decrease in inflation is primarily driven by a significant drop in gasoline prices, which fell by 16.1% year-on-year, influenced by the cancellation of the consumer carbon tax and increased oil supply from producing countries [1] Group 2 - Excluding gasoline prices, the CPI index rose by 2.5%, consistent with the growth rates observed in May and June [1] - Following the inflation report, the Canadian dollar continued to decline against the US dollar, trading at 1.3835 CAD per USD [1] - Canadian government bonds experienced a slight increase, with the 2-year bond yield dropping to 2.71% [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no specific industry - wide investment rating provided in the report. However, for individual varieties, ratings are as follows: Gold - ★ (suggesting long - term strategic allocation), Silver - ★ (short - term attention to support level, long - term long), Copper - ★ (long - term bullish), Zinc - ★ (short - term bearish, long - term wait for shorting opportunity), Lead - ★★ (short - term bearish), Tin - ★ (short - term rebound), Aluminum - ★★ (short - term bearish), Nickel - ★★ (short - term bearish), Industrial Silicon - ★ (short - term bearish), Polysilicon - ★ (high - level shock, callback to buy), Lithium Carbonate - ★ (high - level shock, hold long positions) [1] Group 2: Core Views - **Gold**: Short - term, due to the significant progress in the Russia - Ukraine issue and the decline of risk - aversion sentiment, the disk lacks upward momentum. Long - term, with the loose monetary policies of major countries, central banks' continuous gold purchasing, and the reshaping of the geopolitical pattern, there is a need for asset allocation in gold, so it should be strategically allocated [1]. - **Silver**: Short - term, there are concerns about liquidity, and it is more elastic. It is affected by gold fluctuations. Long - term, with strong global liquidity and re - industrialization demand and limited supply increase, the upward trend is unchanged. Short - term, pay attention to the performance around 9150, and long - term, go long [1]. - **Copper**: Short - term, the upcoming global central bank annual meeting and the possible hawkish statement of Powell may suppress the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, causing the US dollar to rebound and copper prices to be under pressure. Pay attention to the support at the 78,000 level. Long - term, as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game, with the shortage of copper concentrates and the explosion of green copper demand, it is bullish [1][7]. - **Zinc**: Short - term, due to insufficient demand and inventory accumulation, the Shanghai zinc is under pressure and in a weak shock. Long - term, supply increases while demand decreases, waiting for shorting opportunities on rebounds [1][11]. - **Lead**: Short - term, with the recovery of primary lead production and the weakening impact of environmental protection on secondary lead in Anhui, supply is relatively loose, and downstream battery consumption is poor, so lead prices are under pressure [1]. - **Tin**: Short - term, with the slow recovery of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and a slight increase in the domestic refined tin smelting industry's start - up, and the tin ingot inventory reaching a high level in the off - season, tin prices show a short - term rebound [1]. - **Aluminum**: Short - term, with stable bauxite supply at home and abroad, inventory accumulation in domestic mainstream consumption areas during the off - season, and poor performance in terminal consumption and exports, aluminum prices are under pressure [1][15]. - **Nickel**: Short - term, with the weakening price of nickel ore in the Philippines and the accumulation of domestic refined nickel social inventory, and the weakening of inventory reduction driven by stainless - steel production cuts, nickel prices are under pressure [1][19]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term, affected by the new energy sector's fluctuations, with no major supply - demand contradiction in itself, it is under obvious pressure from the top and tests the lower support [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Despite a bearish fundamental outlook and expected inventory accumulation in August, due to the photovoltaic industry symposium held by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, it is expected to be in high - level shock, and buy on callbacks [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply contracts unexpectedly, and with the approaching peak season of terminal demand, wait for the strengthening of the de - stocking drive. Hold long positions. It is in high - level shock in the short term [1][23]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Global parties are seeking a geopolitical cease - fire, and the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting may have a radical stance, leading to an obvious adjustment in gold and silver prices [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The market expects Powell to have a radical stance at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. The US housing starts in July reached a five - month high, contrary to expectations. There is progress in the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire. Short - term, the probability of gold breaking through the range is low, while long - term, gold may continue a long - bull trend due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reshaping of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may have support around 766 in the short term. Pay attention to long - order entry after stabilization. Silver has greater short - term emotional fluctuations and is adjusting downward. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the support at 9000. Also, pay attention to the tri - party meeting of the US, Russia, and Ukraine [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: LME copper lost the 9700 - level mark, and Shanghai copper was under pressure and declined. Pay attention to the support at the 78,000 level [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Recently, there have been disturbances in copper mines, but the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has improved marginally. With the increase in smelting maintenance in August - September, refined copper production may decline marginally. It is currently the off - season, and downstream demand is weak, but demand is expected to pick up with the approaching peak season. Overseas exchange copper inventory has increased slightly, and domestic social inventory has rebounded slightly. The annual copper supply - demand is in a tight balance [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the approaching central bank annual meeting, the US dollar rebounds, and copper prices are under pressure. Pay attention to the support at the 78,000 level. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and then go long lightly after the price stabilizes. Long - term, copper is bullish. Shanghai copper focuses on the range [77500, 79500] yuan/ton, and LME copper focuses on [9650, 9950] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc is in a weak shock, testing the lower - level support [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant. The production of refined zinc in China has increased significantly. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has been rising, and smelter enthusiasm is high. However, due to the tariff increase on galvanized steel in Vietnam and the domestic off - season, the demand of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline. The spot market transaction is dull, and inventory has accumulated [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, due to the off - season and inventory accumulation, zinc is in a weak shock. Hold previous short positions, and some can take profit on dips. Pay attention to the support at the 22000 - level. Long - term, supply increases while demand decreases, so short on rebounds. Shanghai zinc focuses on the range [21800, 22400], and LME zinc focuses on [2700, 2800] US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina prices are falling back [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas macro - trade policies are still uncertain. The cost has decreased, and inventory has increased. The downstream start - up rate has rebounded slightly. For alumina, the rainy season in Guinea may affect the arrival volume in August, and the inventory accumulation speed of mainstream ports is expected to slow down. Domestic alumina production capacity has increased, and inventory has accumulated. Short - term, the supply - demand of alumina is expected to be loose [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, look for opportunities to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum. Pay attention to the inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [15]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are running weakly, and stainless - steel prices are under pressure and falling back [17]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas, the price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, and NPI smelters are facing cost inversion and losses. Domestic refined nickel production has increased, and inventory has accumulated again. The production cut of stainless - steel has weakened, and the inventory reduction effect is weakening. The terminal market is still in the off - season, and stainless - steel still faces over - supply pressure [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless - steel. Pay attention to the downstream inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 123000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened high and closed low, with a slight reduction in positions, and closed down 1.79% [21]. - **Industrial Logic**: The fundamentals have not shown obvious improvement. The total inventory and production have decreased slightly, but the absolute quantity is still at a high level in recent years. After CATL confirmed the shutdown, the market expects the synchronous shutdown of other mines in Jiangxi. With the approaching peak season of terminal demand, downstream material factories start to stock up. The vulnerability of the inventory structure will amplify price elasticity. The main contract of lithium carbonate is expected to rise further after the de - stocking expectation is strengthened [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is still an expectation of supply speculation. Hold long positions in the range [86500 - 88000] [23].