| 册 上海黄金玉乡呼 | | | | 1 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS | Ｑ 请输入关键字,搜栏目 / 行情资讯 / 公告 / 规则 ○ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 首页 | 关于上金所 | 新闻中心 | 产品服务 | 数据资讯 | 会员专区 投资者服务 制度与规则 | | | | | | | Company Company - The Carrer - The Bearing Company of the Comments of the Comments of the Comments of the comments of the comments of the contraction of the contribution of t | | | | 交易所公告 | | | | | | ↑ 首页 > 交易所公告 | 近期，黄金、白银等贵金属价格连续上涨，市场波动加大。面对这一新变化，上海黄金交易所（下称"上金所"）出手了。 9月3日，上金所发布公告，对黄金延期品种与白银延期合约交易保证金水平和涨跌停板比例进行调整。具 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Analysts from Philip Nova predict that gold prices may reach the range of $3600 to $3900 per ounce in the coming months if spot gold continues to break above $3500, driven by geopolitical risks and strong ETF demand [1] Group 2: Currency Market Analysis - Dutch bank analysts suggest that the recent decline of the US dollar may be limited, with potential for a rebound in the coming months as the market has already priced in interest rate cuts [2] - Analysts from Mitsubishi UFJ state that the political situation in France is unlikely to disrupt the upward trend of the euro, as market participants remain optimistic despite political turmoil [4] - Dutch bank analysts note that the euro's recent performance indicates that market participants do not believe the political situation in France will shake the euro's upward trend [4] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Analysts from Dutch International highlight that the risk in oil prices lies in OPEC+'s decision to potentially re-implement production cuts, with Brent crude oil prices recently rising above $68 per barrel [3] Group 4: A-Share Market Trends - CITIC Securities reports that the A-share market is entering a mild recovery phase, with a structural shift towards growth sectors driven by AI and domestic substitution [6] - CITIC Securities also sees potential bottom-fishing opportunities in the white liquor industry, despite recent declines in revenue and profit due to reduced demand [7] Group 5: Investment Opportunities in Utilities - Huatai Securities suggests focusing on state-owned electric utility companies with low asset securitization ratios, as capital operations may enhance dividend payouts [8]

Group 1 - The Chinese commodity futures market has experienced significant volatility this year, with high investor sentiment and concentrated capital, particularly in gold futures [1][2] - The gold futures segment has seen a substantial increase in capital, surpassing 100 billion yuan, with major players like CITIC Futures and Guotai Junan Futures holding significant positions [1][3] - Analysts indicate that investment opportunities are evident across different sectors, with precious metals leading in performance, followed by agricultural products and non-ferrous metals [1][2] Group 2 - The concentration of funds in the commodity market has increased, with the total amount of funds in commodity futures reaching nearly 480 billion yuan, up from 330 billion yuan at the beginning of the year [3][4] - The precious metals sector has shown a remarkable increase of nearly 17% year-to-date, while agricultural products and non-ferrous metals have also demonstrated notable activity [2][3] - The shift in institutional positions reflects a growing preference for gold futures, with significant changes in the leading positions among major futures companies [4] Group 3 - Analysts predict a divergence in market trends for the second quarter, with precious metals likely to maintain strong momentum while other sectors, particularly energy and chemicals, may weaken [4][5] - The energy and chemical sectors are under pressure from cost constraints, and international trade dynamics may lead to further declines in energy prices [5] - Gold is expected to remain a favored asset due to ongoing geopolitical risks, with expectations of continued strong demand from investors seeking safe-haven assets [5]

Group 1 - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has surged, with domestic gold bar and coin consumption increasing by 23.69% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, and gold ETF holdings reaching 199.505 tons, a 173.73% increase compared to the same period last year [1] - International gold prices surpassed $3000 per ounce in June and maintained a high of $3286 per ounce in July, reflecting a more than 24% increase since the beginning of the year, driven by rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and continuous gold purchases by global central banks [1] - As of June, China's gold reserves reached 2298.55 tons, with global central bank gold purchases hitting a historical high for the same period [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China implemented stricter regulations on cash transactions over 100,000 yuan, effective August 1, 2025, which has made compliance qualifications a key measure of platform legitimacy [4] - The top 10 stable spot gold trading platforms, as reported by Sina Finance, are dominated by Hong Kong AA-class member platforms, with Jinsheng Precious Metals ranking prominently due to its mature trading system and professional services [4] Group 3 - The high volatility in the gold market necessitates the establishment of a dynamic risk control system for investors, as demonstrated by Jinsheng Precious Metals' intelligent risk control system that reduces the risk of client liquidation by 60% [5] - The trend towards "lightweight" gold investment is evident, with a 149.17% year-on-year increase in gold futures and options trading volume in the first half of 2025, indicating a preference for leveraged tools among investors [5] Group 4 - Jinsheng Precious Metals ensures client fund safety through a three-tier protection system, with client funds stored in dedicated accounts at licensed banks in Hong Kong and subject to daily audits by PwC [6] - The platform supports MT4/MT5 with order execution speeds below 0.03 seconds and a slippage rate controlled within 0.05%, providing a stable trading environment during volatile periods [7][8] - Jinsheng offers instant fund deposits and withdrawals within 2 hours, significantly improving upon the industry standard of 2-3 days [9] Group 5 - Jinsheng provides a comprehensive service system, including a "21-day simulation training camp" and one-on-one customer service, integrating AI analysis tools and expert live broadcasts to cover all trading scenarios [10] Group 6 - The gold market is entering a new phase of "regulated development" amid intertwined Federal Reserve policy shifts and geopolitical risks, with Jinsheng Precious Metals establishing a six-layer security system encompassing regulation, custody, technology, privacy, risk control, and service [11]

Core Viewpoint - Silver has experienced a significant surge in price, outperforming gold, with a year-to-date increase of over 36%, reaching a 14-year high of over $39 per ounce [2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since June, the silver market has seen a strong rally, with current prices exceeding $39 per ounce, marking a 14-year high [2][6]. - As of July 23, silver's year-to-date increase stands at over 36%, surpassing gold's increase of 30% [2][3]. - The price of silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached a peak of 9,526 RMB per kilogram, also a 14-year high [6]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Investment in silver bars and related products has surged, with sales increasing by over 40% year-on-year [9][13]. - The largest silver ETF, SLV, reported a holding of 15,158.37 tons, with significant daily increases in holdings [8]. - Institutional investors are actively participating in the silver market through various channels, including ETFs and futures contracts, leading to a notable rise in silver ETF holdings since June [7][8]. Group 3: Industrial Demand and Geopolitical Factors - The increase in silver prices is attributed to its industrial applications, particularly in solar energy and electric vehicles, alongside rising geopolitical risks [7][14]. - The global demand for silver in photovoltaic applications is expected to surge, with projections of over 600 GW of new installations by 2025 [7][14]. - The World Silver Association forecasts a supply-demand gap of 3,659 tons in 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of shortage, driven by industrial demand [14]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - Citigroup predicts silver prices could reach $40 within three months and $43 within six to twelve months, driven by strong fundamentals [14]. - Bank of America anticipates silver prices to reach $40 per ounce by the end of this year or early 2026, citing both investment and industrial demand as key drivers [14]. - Macquarie Group remains optimistic about silver prices but notes limited upside potential in the near term, estimating an average price of $36 per ounce in Q3 [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff situation has slightly heated up, but the uncertainty has decreased. Some long - position holders chose to take profits, causing the precious metals market to decline under pressure. The recent economic "soft data" in the US, such as inflation expectations and consumer confidence, has significantly improved compared to the initial period of tariff announcements. As the overall tariff uncertainty has slowed down, countries are reaching agreements with the US through negotiation and compromise, leading to a continuous increase in market risk appetite. The VIX volatility index is at a low level, and the upward movement of gold prices has been continuously hindered [2]. - Driven by the strong performance in June (+$7.6 billion), global gold ETF holdings increased by $38 billion in the first half of 2025. Against the backdrop of global geopolitical uncertainty, the safe - haven investment demand for gold remains relatively stable. Whether core countries can reach an agreement with the US before the deadline is the key factor for the subsequent trend of gold prices. If the trade negotiations progress optimistically, gold prices may continue to be under pressure [2]. - The formal passage of Trump's "Big and Beautiful" bill has intensified market concerns about the long - term fiscal problems of the US government, which may accelerate the global de - dollarization process, weaken the demand for the US dollar as a traditional safe - haven asset, and boost the monetary attribute of gold [2]. - In the case of silver, the global de - stocking cycle has led to a continuously tight supply - demand structure. Coupled with the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve helping to repair its industrial attribute, silver prices are expected to remain resilient. There is still some room for the gold - silver ratio to repair, but short - term correction risks need to be noted [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 766.82 yuan/gram, down 9.4 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 8,899 yuan/kilogram, down 54 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main contract position of Shanghai gold was 181,258 lots, an increase of 2,127 lots; the main contract position of Shanghai silver was 327,567 lots, a decrease of 10,577 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract was 129,215 lots, a decrease of 10,912 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract was 94,543 lots, an increase of 3,196 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 21,585 kilograms, an increase of 27 kilograms; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 1,320,909 kilograms, a decrease of 13,822 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 763.39 yuan/gram, down 8.49 yuan; the spot price of silver was 8,864 yuan/kilogram, down 33 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 3.43 yuan/gram, an increase of 0.91 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 35 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 21 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 946.51 tons, a decrease of 1.15 tons; silver ETF holdings were 14,935.15 tons, an increase of 66.41 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC was 201,980 contracts, an increase of 6,976 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CTFC was 63,400 contracts, an increase of 453 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, an increase of 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, an increase of 54.83 tons; the global total annual demand for silver was 1,195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 11.98%, an increase of 0.71 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 16%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 20.55%, a decrease of 1.24 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 20.54%, a decrease of 1.26 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump stated on social media that tariffs would start on August 1, 2025, and he was planning to impose tariffs on specific industries including pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and metals. He would impose a 50% tariff on copper and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals. He also called on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to resign immediately and said that a new study by the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) found that tariffs had no impact on inflation [2]. - The UK will not be able to reach an agreement on steel and aluminum trade with the US this week, missing the July 9 deadline set by the White House, but is still expected to reach an agreement by the end of the month [2].

Group 1: Military Action and Geopolitical Context - Israel launched military airstrikes against Iran, targeting nuclear and military facilities, citing an imminent threat from Iran's enriched uranium capabilities [1][5][7] - The airstrikes were described as a "preemptive strike" and occurred without U.S. support, raising concerns about a potential escalation in the Middle East [5][10] - Analysts noted that the geopolitical uncertainty could lead to capital flows towards safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen and Norwegian krone [4] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the airstrikes, global stock markets experienced significant declines, with major U.S. tech stocks like Nvidia, Apple, and Google falling sharply [2][10] - Safe-haven assets such as gold surged over 1%, while the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen saw notable increases, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards risk aversion [2][10] - Oil prices spiked dramatically, with WTI crude futures rising over 8% and Brent crude increasing by more than 7%, highlighting the event's impact on energy markets [2][9] Group 3: Future Implications and Analyst Insights - Analysts expressed concerns about the potential for further escalation, emphasizing that the market's previous bullish sentiment could be fragile [10][11] - The situation is being closely monitored, with the possibility that limited Iranian retaliation could stabilize markets, while any significant response could maintain high volatility [4][11] - Morgan Stanley's report suggested that if the conflict escalates, oil prices could rise significantly, potentially reaching $120-130 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is affected [8][9]

Core Insights - The global economic uncertainty has led to a renewed interest in gold, with global gold ETF holdings expected to increase by 17% in the first half of 2025, reaching the highest level in nearly five years [1] - Analysts believe that despite short-term price fluctuations due to Federal Reserve policy adjustments, gold is still in a bull market cycle, with prices projected to exceed $2,000 per ounce by the end of 2025 [3] - Gold is seen as an effective hedge against inflation, especially as the U.S. CPI year-on-year growth rate reached 3.8% in the first quarter of 2025, higher than expected [5] Institutional Investor Behavior - Central banks have purchased nearly 300 tons of gold in the first five months of 2025, representing a growth of over 20% compared to the same period last year, indicating strong confidence in gold as a reserve asset [6] - High-net-worth individuals and family offices are increasing their investments in physical gold to diversify risks and protect asset values from currency depreciation [6] Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - The geopolitical risks, particularly the tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Ukraine conflict, have heightened market risk aversion, typically resulting in a 5% increase in gold prices during such events [5] - Gold's unique appeal is highlighted as a stable source of returns for investors navigating the current complex market environment [3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 73.7 million ounces as of March 2025, marking 18 consecutive months of accumulation, reflecting a strategic response to global economic uncertainties [1] - The gold reserves now account for 5.5% of the country's foreign exchange reserves, aligning with the global trend of central banks moving away from the US dollar, with a record net purchase of 1,044 tons of gold in 2024 [1] - The price of Shanghai gold futures reached a high of 782.42 yuan per gram on June 4, indicating sustained market recognition of the investment value of precious metals [1] Group 2 - China's gold reserve ratio is only one-third of the global average, prompting the central bank to adopt a "pulse-style increase" strategy, with a record monthly increase of 10.26 tons in December 2024 [3] - This strategic adjustment not only diversifies risks associated with dollar assets but also supports the internationalization of the renminbi, enhancing the credibility of the sovereign currency [3] - Gold is increasingly seen as a long-term asset allocation "ballast" for individual investors, with Jinsheng Precious Metals providing a robust safety net through its compliance and auditing measures [3] Group 3 - Geopolitical risks and policy uncertainties, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and fluctuating US tariff policies, have created a surge in demand for safe-haven assets like gold [4] - On June 3, international gold prices rose by 1% due to the breakdown of negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine prisoner exchange, surpassing 3,390 yuan per gram, highlighting gold's role as a crisis hedge [4] - Jinsheng Precious Metals has established a comprehensive service system to address this trend, achieving a customer satisfaction rate of 97.3% in Q1 2025 [4] Group 4 - The dual characteristics of enhanced safe-haven attributes and surging industrial demand in the precious metals market have prompted Jinsheng Precious Metals to leverage technology to build a competitive trading ecosystem [5] - The platform connects directly with Bloomberg data, ensuring market data latency of less than 0.3 seconds and supporting multi-currency settlements, catering to diverse global investor needs [5] - Jinsheng Precious Metals has also implemented blockchain technology for supply chain traceability, aligning with EU carbon tax standards, thus enabling investors to capitalize on opportunities in the hydrogen energy revolution [5] Group 5 - The continuous increase in gold reserves by the People's Bank of China signals a strategic response to changes in the global financial landscape, guiding individual investors towards precious metal investments in 2025 [6] - In an era where compliance, technological innovation, and user experience are core competitive advantages, Jinsheng Precious Metals is building a "safe, efficient, and transparent" trading ecosystem based on Hong Kong's financial regulatory framework [6] - The company aims to facilitate both short-term trading and long-term asset allocation, enabling wealth growth in a complex environment by aligning with market trends [6]

Group 1: Core Argument - The World Gold Council has proposed that the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) recognize gold as a High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) due to its strong liquidity and orderly market conditions, especially in light of recent market volatility caused by U.S. trade policy uncertainties [2][3][7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Major asset management firms on Wall Street are increasingly avoiding long-term U.S. Treasury bonds due to concerns over the growing U.S. budget deficit and debt burden, leading them to favor shorter-term bonds instead [3][6]. - The average daily trading volume of gold in the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) has been higher than that of 7-10 year and 20-year U.S. Treasuries, indicating gold's strong liquidity [7]. Group 3: Regulatory Considerations - There are significant uncertainties regarding whether BCBS will classify gold as HQLA, as some Western central banks fear it could negatively impact the demand for sovereign bonds from the U.S. and Europe [4][9]. - The implementation of Basel III regulations has been delayed in the EU and the UK, which may further postpone any decision on gold's HQLA status [10]. Group 4: Investment Sentiment - Despite uncertainties about gold's HQLA status, global investment institutions continue to show strong interest in gold, driven by geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns [11][14]. - The recent increase in gold prices has been attributed to rising geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures, with some hedge funds adjusting their strategies to capitalize on potential price increases [12][14]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that if gold is recognized as HQLA, it could significantly alter liquidity asset allocation strategies among global asset managers, potentially reducing demand for U.S. Treasuries [9][14]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and economic conditions are expected to sustain or increase the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset in the coming months [8][15].