证券研究报告 2026.02.07 量化策略 量化策略周报（467）：静观其变 全周回顾：市场有所震荡，食品饮料与纺织服装强势，价值强于成长，贴水低位震荡 1）市场有所震荡：A 股市场在本周有所震荡，表征市场走势的宽基指数均有所下跌，最终沪深 300、中证 500、创业板指在本周涨跌幅分别为-1.33%、-2.68%、-3.28%。 2）食品饮料与纺织服装强势：本周食品饮料与纺织服装行业表现出色，涨幅在所有行业中排在前两 位，其它表现较好的行业还包括银行、电力设备及新能源、交通运输等。而有色金属与通信行业在本 周表现不佳，跌幅在所有行业中排名前两位，其它表现偏弱的行业还包括电子、计算机、传媒等。 3）价值强于成长：本周价值风格的收益强于成长风格，对应国证价值指数全周下跌 0.53%，而国证 成长指数全周下跌 1.99%。根据中金量化风格因子体系，本周表现较好的因子主要包括分红、低换 手、低流动性、低波动等。 4）贴水低位震荡：本周小盘股期指当季合约周均年化贴水震荡收窄。本周五 IH、IF、IC 和 IM 当季 年化基差率分别为-0.4%、-2.1%、-4.7%和-8.0%。IV 情绪指标本周一收盘发出开多仓信 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the derivatives market in China, particularly options and their strategies, as well as the refinancing market for listed companies [1][2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Derivatives Market - A timing system based on implied volatility has shown accurate performance, especially in extreme market conditions, providing valuable insights for investment decisions [1][2]. - Various options risk management strategies, such as selling put options, have yielded positive excess returns on broad indices, improving the Sharpe ratio of portfolios, although they may struggle to outperform indices in long-term bullish environments [1][3]. - The average daily trading volume of stock index futures has reached 600 to 700 billion yuan, accounting for about one-third of the spot trading level, indicating a growing but still underdeveloped derivatives market compared to mature markets [3][4]. - As of the end of 2025, the proportion of public funds and insurance capital using stock index options is less than 6%, reflecting a cautious approach towards derivatives [6]. Refinancing Market - The average discount rate for competitive financing projects in 2025 was 12.7%, with expectations for 2026's refinancing market size to be around 165 billion yuan, and average discount returns projected at 13.8% [2][19]. - There is a notable difference in financing demand across industries, with high-tech sectors like electronics and pharmaceuticals showing stronger demand compared to traditional sectors like banking and coal [11]. - The average review cycle for financing projects has extended significantly, reaching approximately 364 days by 2025, but is expected to decrease to around 300 days in 2026 [12]. Investment Strategies - A rotation-based investment strategy has outperformed single-style strategies by analyzing the relationship between quarterly and annual trends to determine the relative advantages of growth and value styles [2][18]. - The use of quantitative strategies is highlighted as having advantages over active investment, particularly in concentrated market conditions, where fundamental alpha factors perform well [20]. Market Trends and Predictions - The derivatives market is still in its early stages of development, with significant potential for growth as trading volumes increase [4]. - The trend of declining sizes in structured products like snowball products and DCNs has reversed slightly since late 2025, indicating changing investor preferences [5]. - The U.S. market's experience with options strategy ETFs and mutual funds serves as a reference for potential domestic market developments [7]. Other Important Insights - The performance of ETFs using options strategies, such as those from JPMorgan, shows lower volatility and down-side risk compared to the S&P 500 index, making them attractive in the current environment [8][9]. - The participation of foreign capital in the refinancing market has decreased, while state-owned and industrial investment funds have increased their involvement [15]. - Public funds are categorized into regular open-end funds and periodic open-end products, with the latter investing more heavily in refinancing projects [16]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call records, focusing on the derivatives and refinancing markets, investment strategies, and market trends.

Core Viewpoint - The recent rally in small-cap stocks is driven by multiple factors, including improved market risk appetite, technical rebound demands, and positive policy expectations for small enterprises [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 10, small-cap stocks showed positive performance, with the CSI 1000 Enhanced ETF (159680) and CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) rising by 0.12% and 0.09% respectively, and a total net inflow of nearly 100 million yuan over five days [2]. Group 2: Factors Driving Small-Cap Rally - The marginal improvement in market risk appetite is attributed to the stabilization of the broader market and a rebound in previously underperforming technology stocks, leading to reduced risk aversion [3]. - A strong technical rebound demand has emerged as small-cap stocks, having undergone significant declines, are now at historically low valuation levels, creating strong technical rebound momentum [3]. - There is a long-term confidence boost from anticipated policies supporting the development of small and specialized enterprises, which is expected to encourage investment in small-cap stocks [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Enhanced tools like the CSI 1000 Enhanced ETF (159680) and CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) aim to achieve returns exceeding benchmarks through quantitative strategies, providing investors with efficient options for participating in the small-cap market [4]. - The sustainability of the small-cap stock rally is highly dependent on overall market liquidity and risk appetite, with higher volatility compared to large-cap stocks, suggesting a more cautious approach to investment [4]. - The strong performance of the dual ETFs may indicate a shift towards a more balanced and diversified market style [4].

金工策略周报 东证衍生品研究院金工首席分析师：李晓辉（商品CTA、商品指数） 从业资格号： F03120233 投资咨询号： Z0019676 东证衍生品研究院金工高级分析师：徐凡（国债期货、基本面量化） 从业资格号： F03107676 投资咨询号： Z0022032 （一）国债期货量化策略 东证衍生品研究院金工高级分析师：徐凡（国债期货、基本面量化） 从业资格号： F03107676 交易咨询号： Z0022032 ★国债期货行情简评： 各品种 基差与 历史均 值比较 （按到 期日聚 合） 各品种基差各品种净基差 各品种 净基差 与历史 均值比 较（按 到期日 聚合） 各品种 基差季 节性 （按交 易日聚 合） 各品种 净基差 季节性 （按交 易日聚 合） 各品种后复权基差 各品种后复权净基差 各品种基差跨期价差 ★风险提示： 量化模型基于历史数据构建，市场环境变化或导致模型信号失效。 Ø 上周各期债均收涨，30年期主力合约收涨0.58%，十年期主力合约涨0.11%，五年期主力合约涨 0.05%，两年期主力合约收跌0.05% Ø 上周各品种基差分化，十债CTD券为250018，6号基差收于0.05元左右， ...

Core Viewpoint - The market has continued to adjust over the past two weeks, with various momentum strategies showing mixed performance, indicating a lack of clear investment opportunities during this period [1]. Performance Summary - The returns for different momentum strategies over the two-week period (January 24, 2026 - February 7, 2026) were as follows: March momentum at -0.67%, January momentum at 0.83%, half-month momentum at -1.01%, comprehensive intersection at -0.72%, and comprehensive union at -1.22% [1]. - The best-performing stock, excluding the suspended stock Minexplosion Optoelectronics, was Hangmin Co., which achieved a 14.50% increase, while the worst performer was Hengsheng Energy, which saw an 11.82% decline [4][5]. Stock Performance Details - Among the 19 stocks in the comprehensive union, only 5 stocks increased in value, while the rest experienced declines [5]. - The stock Minexplosion Optoelectronics had a remarkable increase of 115% but was not included in the final calculations due to its suspension during the period [4][6]. - Other notable performers included Fuanna, which rose by 3.80%, and Kemin Food, which increased by 1.26% [4][6]. Strategy Analysis - The average return for the half-month strategy was -1.01%, while the average return for the comprehensive intersection strategy was -0.72% [6][11]. - The performance of the stocks was evaluated based on their closing prices and changes in earnings ratios and dividend yields during the specified period [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment sentiment towards the A-share market, particularly favoring small-cap and technology sectors, with a focus on structural rotation and high volatility [1][30]. Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a strong start in January 2026, with significant gains in various indices, particularly the ChiNext and small-cap indices, reflecting a robust market environment [1]. - The precious metals sector showed strong performance driven by both safe-haven demand and capital allocation needs, while the banking sector faced a decline, breaking a long-standing trend of outperformance [2][12]. - The overall market saw a high number of stocks achieving positive returns, with 3,631 stocks recording monthly gains, and 16 stocks doubling in price during January [2]. Market Review and Outlook - The A-share market indices recorded substantial monthly gains, with the ChiNext Index rising by 12.29% and the CSI 500 Index by 12.12%, indicating a strong performance in small-cap stocks [1]. - The average daily trading volume reached 30,147.10 billion yuan, reflecting increased trading enthusiasm among retail investors [1]. - The report anticipates continued structural rotation in February, with a focus on precious metals and certain new energy sectors due to supply constraints and capital allocation needs [30]. Futures Market - The commodity futures market showed an overall upward trend in January, with the precious metals sector leading the gains, while agricultural products like live pigs and soybean meal faced declines [11][12]. - The report highlights that the macroeconomic environment is characterized by weak recovery and strong differentiation, impacting demand for cyclical commodities [12]. Private Fund Strategies - In January, the average return for private funds was 5.71%, with equity and commodity long strategies showing significant profitability [22]. - The report notes that January was a month of systematic recovery, with many strategies achieving returns in the 7%-10% range, particularly those focused on equities and high elasticity [24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of diversified strategies and risk management in the current market environment, suggesting that private fund strategies can provide opportunities for excess returns while managing risks effectively [33].

Market Performance - Core assets, particularly liquor stocks, have shown a strong rebound, reminiscent of the performance during the 2019 Spring Festival, although the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain [1] - The market has experienced a significant decline in trading volume, dropping from nearly 3 trillion to around 2 trillion in just one week, indicating reduced participation from investors [1] - The solar energy sector, which performed well previously, faced a sharp decline, exemplifying the volatility in growth styles, while traditional sectors led by liquor stocks began to recover [1] Trading Dynamics - The buying power recorded today was only 800+, which is significantly below expectations, indicating a lack of momentum in the market [3] - The selling pressure exceeded buying power, with over 1000 sell orders, contributing to the market's decline [3] - The market has seen increasing capital outflows over the past three days, suggesting that the current market conditions do not indicate a rebound [3] Sector Highlights - The top-performing sectors today included coal and consumer goods, with 15 stocks hitting the daily limit up, while the market lacked a clear leading theme [5] - The absence of a dominant theme has resulted in low trading volume and diminished market sentiment, leading to speculation that many investors may be exiting the market ahead of the holiday [5] Statistical Insights - Data indicates an increase in stocks that have risen for three consecutive days, with a notable success rate of 54% for stocks rising from five to six days [8] - The current market conditions are characterized by a lack of clear trends, making it advisable for investors to refrain from aggressive trading strategies [8]

黄金市场上演了一场史诗级波动。 国际金价从逼近5600美元的历史高点狂泻至4400美元低点，单日暴跌9%，创下1980年以来最大跌 幅；白银单日重挫26%，市场恐慌情绪蔓延。 仅隔两个交易日，金价在2月3日暴力反弹6%，重回4900美元关口，2月4日亚洲早盘更是突 破5000美元大关。 这种急速下跌与反弹的节奏，让杠杆交易者经历了一场"多杀多"的踩踏与修复。 这场暴跌的导火索是美联储主席提名事件。 特朗普提名鹰派人物凯文·沃什接任美联储主席，其主张缩表控通胀的立场引发流动性收紧担 忧。 芝加哥商品交易所随即上调保证金要求，投机多头被迫平仓，形成"下跌-平仓-再下跌"的恶性循环。 同时，美元指数反弹压制了非 美货币持有者的黄金需求。 金价在1个月内暴涨25%，白银涨幅高达63%，这种短期涨幅已脱离传统估值框架。 方正证券分析师指出，黄金较2026年合理估值2990美 元/盎司高出80%，存在明显高估。 但另一方面，全球央行购金潮构筑了坚实底部。 2025年全球央行购金量达5002吨，中国央行连续15 个月增持，波兰计划新增150吨储备。 暴跌期间，SPDR黄金ETF单日流入12吨黄金，国泰黄金ETF近20日资金 ...

量化机构在快速发展的道路上，快速进化，特别是头部量化机构凭借深厚投研实力和策略研发实力，加快产品 链体系化，通过AI技术持续迭代，争取满足更多客户的不同需求。 2025年，量化策略产品取得了高额回报；今年，量化产品继续成为资产配置中备受瞩目的焦点。 产品结构趋向多元化 去年以来量化产品的备案数量大幅提升，远超主观私募备案产品，且"强者恒强"态势进一步增强，百亿私募之 间竞争已经进入"多元化"的体系竞争。 在刚刚过去的2025年，微盘指增、科技主题指增、北证指增等创新产品不断涌现。同时，随着市场上涨，"带 择时或期权保护的指增策略"也开始流行，多元化策略和产品线，满足客户的不同需求。这一趋势，在2026年 将进一步深化发展。 "人才、技术、资金等各种资源持续向头部机构聚拢，中小机构想要突围，必须在细分赛道做出差异化优 势。"百亿私募上海蒙玺投资管理有限公司表示，行业竞争格局已经从单纯的比拼规模，转变为生态化竞争。 各家机构在扩规模、提业绩的同时，更加注重工程化、精细化建设，希望打造一条打通"投研—生产—风控— 运维"等模块的全链条体系，实现投资能力的稳定性、可扩张性。管理人通过摆脱对单一风格或策略的依赖， 构建 ...

Group 1: Gold Investment and Market Dynamics - Gold prices have experienced significant volatility this year, prompting major state-owned banks in China to enhance risk management in gold investment businesses by raising entry barriers and adding risk assessment requirements [1] - Despite short-term price fluctuations, experts believe that gold and precious metals still hold medium to long-term investment value due to global risk aversion and changes in asset allocation logic [1] - A collective drop in 13 futures products occurred, attributed to panic selling and concentrated leverage, leading to a significant market downturn [1] Group 2: Central Enterprises and Performance Forecasts - Over 110 central enterprise-controlled listed companies in China have reported positive performance forecasts for 2025, with many achieving substantial profit increases or returning to profitability [2] - Industries such as military, steel, and chemicals are showing particularly strong performance [2] Group 3: Storage Market and Price Surge - The global storage market is entering a super cycle, with prices for DRAM and NAND flash memory chips rising over 300% since Q3 2025, and further increases are expected in early 2026 [3] - Many storage companies are reporting improved performance due to the high demand driven by AI and computing industries [3] Group 4: Fertilizer Market Trends - The fertilizer market is experiencing a structural price increase as the spring farming season approaches, with notable price rises in nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers [3] Group 5: Electricity Consumption Forecast - The China Electricity Council predicts a 5% to 6% year-on-year growth in national electricity consumption for 2026, with solar power generation capacity expected to surpass coal power for the first time [5] Group 6: Corporate Developments - Tianyi Space Technology Co., Ltd. has initiated the listing guidance process for its IPO [10] - Dream Garden has received approval for the full circulation listing of its H-shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [11] - Dayang Shengxiang anticipates a 92.81% decline in net profit for 2025 due to decreased production and sales [12] - ZTE Corporation plans to invest 117 million yuan in a new equity investment fund focused on advanced technology sectors [13]