Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's attitude. It anticipates that the central bank will mainly use open - market operations to maintain a stable money market before the holiday. Traders should adopt a range - bound trading strategy and avoid chasing high prices [1][3]. 3. Key Points from Different Sections 3.1. Market Review - On Monday, bond futures rebounded across the board, and spot bond yields declined. The central bank started to inject cross - quarter funds through 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a total of 540.5 billion yuan and a net injection of 260.5 billion yuan. The money market continued to ease compared to last week, and the DR001 rate dropped to 1.43% [1]. 3.2. Intraday News - The September LPR quotes remained unchanged, with the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. - Pan Gongsheng stated that the financial reform content for the "15th Five - Year Plan" and beyond will be further communicated after the central government's unified deployment [2]. 3.3. Market Analysis - There was no incremental positive news in the market today. The unchanged LPR quote in the morning met expectations, and the press conference in the afternoon on the achievements of the 14th Five - Year Plan for financial development had no incremental policy information. The market rebound was mainly a correction of the pessimistic sentiment on Friday [3]. 3.4. Futures Data | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 22 Price | 2025 - 09 - 19 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 09 - 22 Position (Lots) | 2025 - 09 - 19 Position (Lots) | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.396 | 102.358 | 0.038 | 76,728 | 75,499 | 1,229 | | TF2512 | 105.76 | 105.63 | 0.13 | 151,551 | 148,476 | 3,075 | | T2512 | 107.945 | 107.755 | 0.19 | 251,433 | 249,865 | 1,568 | | TL2512 | 115.09 | 114.88 | 0.21 | 169,375 | 169,501 | - 126 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0141 | - 0.0347 | 0.0206 | TS Main Contract Volume (Lots) | 28,858 | 35,797 | - 6,939 | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.0369 | - 0.0542 | 0.0911 | TF Main Contract Volume (Lots) | 50,317 | 92,239 | - 41,922 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.1268 | 0.019 | 0.1078 | T Main Contract Volume (Lots) | 79,097 | 140,197 | - 61,100 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.6336 | 0.4458 | 0.1878 | TL Main Contract Volume (Lots) | 113,691 | 179,539 | - 65,848 | [4][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is to summarize the achievements of the financial industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period from a medium to long-term perspective, as stated by the Governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng [1] Group 2 - The press conference focuses on the development of the financial industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and does not involve short-term policy adjustments [1] - Further communication regarding the "15th Five-Year Plan" and upcoming financial reforms will be provided after central unified deployment [1]

中国央行行长潘功胜9月22日在发布会上表示，今天的新闻发布会的主题是介绍十四五时期金融业的发展情况，主要是从中长期的视角回顾和总结“十四五”，不涉及短期政策的调整，关于“十五五”以及下一步金融改革的内容，将在中央统一部署后给做进一步沟通。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):#预告 中国央行、金融监管总局、证监会、外汇局负责人将于9月22日下午3:00召开新闻发布会。 https://t.co/fBgTWlmjxg ...

转自：新华财经 从1986年勇闯金融改革新路成立上海首家城市信用社，到1995年99朵"玫瑰"整合为上海城市合作银行、1998年更名上海银行，再到如今屹立浦江两岸、成为 服务地方经济的重要金融力量，一代代上海银行人怀揣热忱、勇毅前行，在上海金融改革的浪潮中，写下了属于自己的时代答卷。 上世纪80年代"两小"企业 我所在的四川南路街道，有许多集体企业和个体户，他们大多是家庭妇女、失业青年和上山下乡病退回沪知青为了生活而勇敢创业。在解决生计的同时，这 些小企业也是计划经济向市场经济转轨中，连接生产与消费、保障社会正常运转的关键环节。他们不怕吃苦，敢闯敢试，但是资金短缺的难题，就像一把悬 在头顶的利剑，随时可能斩断他们的谋生之路。 岁月流转，变的是日益壮大的规模与版图，不变的是"金融让生活更美好"的使命传承。 金融有温度，是心系小微企业的雪中送炭；金融有力量，是助推地方发展的坚实臂膀；金融有情怀，是与城市同频共振的不懈坚守。 三十而砺，筑梦百年。我们邀请30载行史参与者、亲历者、见证者，共同讲述卅载深耕路，重拾共同记忆，共话初心使命。循着"金融改革之花"的绽放轨 迹，我们将以过往为序，续写"金融让生活更美好"的新篇 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the current capital market trend is supported by three core pillars: the global transformation, financial reform, and strategic adjustments towards the U.S. [2][9][11] Group 1: Understanding the Macro Logic of the Current Market - The current market trend is underpinned by three main pillars: the century-long transformation, financial reform, and strategic adjustments towards the U.S. [2] - The core contradiction of the Chinese economy lies externally, with globalization being a key factor in overcoming challenges [3][8]. Group 2: The Three Core Pillars - **Pillar One: Globalization and Economic Transformation** - China's industrial capacity expansion has been driven by industrialization, urbanization, and globalization, with China accounting for approximately 17% of the global population and 34% of industrial output [3]. - The current phase of these processes shows a slowdown in demand, leading to excess capacity [3][4]. - Embracing globalization can help alleviate supply-demand contradictions and stabilize the real estate market by expanding the customer base beyond domestic demand [5][6][7]. - **Pillar Two: Financial Reform** - Since the 20th National Congress, the capital market's pivotal role has been reinforced, with significant policy changes highlighting the importance of finance [9][10]. - The restructuring of financial institutions indicates a historical elevation of the capital market's status within the national financial system [9][10]. - **Pillar Three: Risk Appetite and U.S. Strategy** - A shift in China's strategy towards the U.S. has positively influenced investor risk appetite, with a more proactive approach since late 2024 [11][12]. - Increased transparency regarding China's industrial advancements has bolstered investor confidence in the economic outlook [12]. Group 3: Market Trend and Phases - The market is expected to undergo two phases: an initial valuation-driven phase followed by a fundamental-driven phase [14][17]. - The first phase focuses on valuation expansion, driven by the competition for global economic order, with three main lines of focus: hard power sectors, technology breakthroughs, and leading manufacturing firms expanding internationally [15][16]. - The second phase will see a shift towards fundamental improvements across various sectors, reflecting a broader market engagement [17]. Group 4: Current Market Stage Assessment - The overall valuation is reasonable, with major indices at historical median levels, indicating no widespread overvaluation [18][20]. - The market capitalization of A-shares remains below China's GDP share, suggesting low financial bubble risks [20]. - Investor sentiment is stable, with no signs of panic, and institutional holdings are diversified, reducing the risk of market crashes [22]. - There is significant potential for additional capital inflow from the bond market and foreign investments, enhancing market liquidity [24].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese economy** and its **capital market** dynamics, with a focus on the implications of globalization, industrial capacity, and real estate market trends. Core Points and Arguments 1. **External Challenges to the Chinese Economy** The Chinese economy faces significant external challenges, including overcapacity in industrial production, necessitating deeper integration into globalization to address these issues rather than relying solely on domestic demand stimulation [2][4][5] 2. **Real Estate Market Constraints** Urbanization is slowing down, and population decline is limiting growth in real estate demand. Stabilizing the real estate market requires attracting global demand and aligning with the industrialization needs of developing countries [2][7][9] 3. **Stimulating Consumption** Enhancing the consumption capacity of the middle and lower-income groups is essential for stimulating demand. The automotive industry, despite having high efficiency, faces barriers due to de-globalization, which, if removed, could enhance brand value and income for workers [2][11] 4. **Globalization as a Solution** China’s push for globalization and aiding developing countries in industrialization could reshape international political and economic orders, addressing overcapacity issues and enhancing China's global economic standing [2][12] 5. **Market Confidence and Financial Reform** Current capital market trends are driven by a recovery in confidence in the Chinese economy, benefits from financial reforms, and adjustments in the Sino-American strategic landscape. Investor confidence in the Chinese economy and competition with the U.S. is on the rise [2][15][29] 6. **Valuation and Market Dynamics** A-shares are currently valued at historical median levels, with no signs of bubble risk. The market capitalization of A-shares is disproportionately low compared to China's GDP, indicating potential for growth [2][22] 7. **Investment Opportunities** The capital market is expected to evolve through two phases: valuation-driven and fundamental-driven. Key sectors to watch include defense-related industries, technology sectors, and companies with global competitiveness in the new energy vehicle space [2][17][18] 8. **Investor Sentiment** Despite market fluctuations, investor sentiment remains stable, with no systemic risk perceived. The shift in bond market strategies indicates a potential influx of capital into the stock market [2][23][25] 9. **Impact of External Funds on Currency and Markets** The depreciation of the U.S. dollar and the undervaluation of the Chinese yuan present opportunities for foreign investors to enter the Chinese capital market, potentially leading to increased capital inflows [2][27][28] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Long-term Market Trends** The current financial market is in a positive development phase, with no significant changes expected in the supportive macroeconomic and policy environment [2][16][29] 2. **Strategic Adjustments in Sino-American Relations** The proactive approach in Sino-American relations, particularly in military and economic strategies, is influencing overall market risk preferences and investor behavior [2][14][15] 3. **Potential for Manufacturing Expansion** Chinese manufacturing leaders are exploring opportunities to expand globally, leveraging their advanced production capabilities to form partnerships with international firms [2][21][20]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen has transformed from a financial desert in 1979 to one of China's three major financial centers by 2024, showcasing a remarkable journey of financial reform and innovation [5][8]. Group 1: Initial Creation and Exploration (1979-1990) - Shenzhen was designated as a "test field" for economic reform in 1979, leading to the establishment of the first foreign bank branch in China and the birth of national banks like China Merchants Bank [9]. - The first stock in New China was issued in 1983, marking the beginning of the capital market, with significant events like the public offering of Shenzhen Development Bank in 1987 [9]. - The emergence of non-bank financial institutions, such as Ping An Insurance in 1988, laid the groundwork for future financial giants [9]. Group 2: Leap and Growth (1990-2004) - The establishment of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in December 1990 marked a significant leap in Shenzhen's financial history, providing direct financing channels for enterprises [10]. - By the end of 2004, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange had 536 listed companies with a total market value of 1.1 trillion yuan and an annual trading volume of 1.6 trillion yuan [10]. - Shenzhen became a hub for venture capital, with over 20 billion yuan invested in more than 100 projects by 2004 [10]. Group 3: Adjustment and Transformation (2004-2019) - The introduction of the SME Board in 2004 provided a dedicated platform for small and medium enterprises, with over 327 companies listed and more than 300 billion yuan raised by 2009 [12]. - The launch of the ChiNext in 2009 focused on innovative and growth-oriented enterprises, leading to a surge in the number of listed companies from 28 to nearly 800 by 2019 [12]. - The establishment of Qianhai as a financial innovation zone in 2010 facilitated cross-border financial services, with over 52,000 financial enterprises registered by 2019 [16]. Group 4: Elevation and Leadership (2019-Present) - Shenzhen's financial sector has been elevated under national strategies, with over 400 companies listed on the ChiNext through a registration system by 2025, raising over 500 billion yuan [18]. - The total number of companies on the Shenzhen main board is expected to approach 1,600 by mid-2025, with a market value nearing 40 trillion yuan [18]. - The implementation of the "Cross-Border Wealth Management Connect" in 2024 has seen significant participation from banks and a substantial increase in cross-border transactions [19]. Group 5: Achievements and Strengths - By the end of 2024, Shenzhen's financial institutions held deposits of 135.78 trillion yuan and loans of 94.83 trillion yuan, with total banking assets reaching 13.57 trillion yuan [21]. - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange had 2,852 listed companies with a market capitalization of 33.04 trillion yuan, ranking it among the top globally [21][23]. - The insurance sector reported premium income of 195.82 billion yuan in 2024, with total assets of 7.3 trillion yuan [25]. Group 6: Reflection and Future Outlook - Over 45 years, Shenzhen has evolved from a financial desert to a global financial technology leader, with significant achievements in various financial sectors [34]. - The city's success is attributed to its innovative spirit, close ties between finance and the real economy, and a highly market-oriented system [34]. - Looking ahead, Shenzhen's financial industry is poised for further growth and innovation, building on its past successes [34].

Core Viewpoint - The financial development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is crucial for its survival and growth, with a significant acceleration in development since the concept was introduced [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Industry Development - The GBA's financial industry is large, comprehensive, and highly internationalized, ranking among the top globally [4]. - The region's unique geographical and institutional advantages have positioned it as a strategic hub for connecting domestic and international economic cycles [4]. Group 2: Recommendations for High-Quality Development - To achieve high-quality development amidst increasing economic uncertainties, deepening both internal and external financial openness is essential [5]. - It is recommended to incorporate the GBA's financial development strategy into the national "14th Five-Year Plan" for coordinated planning and to strengthen top-level design [5]. Group 3: Market Integration and Innovation - Establishing a unified financial market in the GBA is necessary to eliminate administrative barriers and ensure consistency in financial policies, promoting mutual openness in financial markets [6]. - There is a need to address financial shortcomings and enhance the GBA's financial industry's international competitiveness through improved public data sharing and the application of new technologies like blockchain and AI [6]. - The government is encouraged to grant the GBA more reform pilot rights to facilitate bold explorations in areas such as technology finance, digital finance, and cross-border finance, providing a model for national financial reforms [6].

Core Insights - Shenzhen has transformed from a financial desert in 1979 to one of China's three major financial centers by 2024, with a GDP exceeding 36.8 trillion yuan and a financial industry value-added of over 470 billion yuan [2][5]. Group 1: Initial Creation and Exploration (1979-1990) - Shenzhen was designated as a "testing ground" for financial reform in 1979, leading to significant innovations in China's financial history [6]. - The establishment of the first foreign bank branch in China, the Nanyang Commercial Bank in 1982, marked a pivotal moment in breaking monopolies [8]. - The founding of China Merchants Bank in 1987 and the listing of Shenzhen Development Bank on the stock exchange created early capital market legends [8]. - The issuance of China's first stock by the Bao'an Investment Company in 1983 initiated the exploration of shareholding reform [10]. Group 2: Growth and Development (1990-2004) - The establishment of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on December 1, 1990, marked a significant leap in Shenzhen's financial landscape [11][12]. - By the end of 2004, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange had 536 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1.1 trillion yuan, reflecting exponential growth [15]. - Shenzhen became a hub for venture capital, with the establishment of Shenzhen Innovation Investment Group in 1999, investing over 2 billion yuan by 2004 [16]. Group 3: Adjustment and Transformation (2004-2019) - The introduction of the SME Board in 2004 provided a dedicated financing platform for small and medium enterprises [19]. - The launch of the ChiNext board in 2009 focused on innovative and growth-oriented enterprises, significantly boosting the entrepreneurial spirit [21]. - By 2019, the ChiNext had grown to nearly 800 companies with a total market capitalization exceeding 6 trillion yuan [21]. Group 4: Elevation and Leadership (2019-Present) - Shenzhen's financial sector has advanced to a higher level under national strategies, with over 400 companies listed through the ChiNext registration system by 2025 [26]. - The establishment of the Qianhai Shenzhen-Hong Kong Modern Service Industry Cooperation Zone has positioned it as a financial innovation pilot zone [23]. - By 2024, the digital yuan pilot program had over 300 million merchants accepting it, with transaction amounts surpassing 600 billion yuan [27]. Group 5: Achievements and Strengths - As of the end of 2024, Shenzhen's financial institutions held deposits of 135.78 trillion yuan and loans of 94.83 trillion yuan [29]. - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange had 2,852 listed companies with a total market value of 33.04 trillion yuan, ranking it third globally in trading volume [31]. - Shenzhen's financial industry added value reached 471 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for approximately 12.8% of its GDP [31].

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen has transformed from a financial desert in 1979 to one of China's three major financial centers by 2024, showcasing a remarkable journey of financial reform and innovation [4][5][8]. Group 1: Initial Creation and Exploration (1979-1990) - In 1979, Shenzhen, then known as Bao'an County, had a deposit balance of only 101 million yuan and a loan balance of 75 million yuan, with very few financial institutions [3][4]. - The establishment of the first foreign bank branch in China, the Nanyang Commercial Bank Shenzhen branch, occurred in 1982 [12]. - The founding of China’s first national bank, China Merchants Bank, in 1987 marked a significant milestone, alongside the listing of Shenzhen Development Bank [13]. - The first stock in New China was issued in 1983, raising 13 million yuan, which initiated the exploration of shareholding reform [16]. Group 2: Leap and Growth (1990-2004) - The establishment of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on December 1, 1990, marked a historic leap for Shenzhen's financial sector [20]. - By the end of 2004, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange had 536 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1.1 trillion yuan [24]. - Shenzhen became a hub for venture capital, with the establishment of Shenzhen Innovation Investment Group in 1999, which invested over 2 billion yuan by 2004 [26]. Group 3: Adjustment and Transformation (2004-2019) - The introduction of the SME Board in 2004 provided a dedicated financing platform for small and medium enterprises [31]. - The launch of the ChiNext board in 2009 focused on innovative and growth-oriented enterprises, significantly enhancing the connection between technology innovation and capital markets [33]. - By 2019, the number of companies on the ChiNext had grown to nearly 800, with a total market capitalization exceeding 6 trillion yuan [34]. Group 4: Elevation and Leadership (2019-Present) - Shenzhen's financial sector has been elevated under new national strategies, with over 400 companies listed on the ChiNext through the registration system by 2025 [40]. - The total number of companies on the Shenzhen main board is expected to approach 1,600 by July 2025, with a market capitalization nearing 40 trillion yuan [42]. - The implementation of the "Cross-Border Wealth Management Connect" in 2024 has led to significant participation from banks and increased cross-border transactions [44]. Group 5: Achievements and Strengths - By the end of 2024, Shenzhen's financial institutions had a total deposit balance of 13.5778 trillion yuan and a loan balance of 9.4830 trillion yuan [48]. - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange had 2,852 listed companies with a total market value of 33.04 trillion yuan, ranking it among the top globally [50]. - The insurance sector reported a premium income of 195.821 billion yuan in 2024, with total assets reaching 7.3 trillion yuan [51]. - Shenzhen's venture capital and wealth management sectors are among the strongest in China, with asset management exceeding 29 trillion yuan by 2024 [61].