Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing a short-term price fluctuation with a tendency to strengthen, driven by seasonal supply declines, weak demand, and changing inventory levels [1] Supply Summary - Global iron ore shipments totaled 29.949 million tons, a decrease of 3.627 million tons week-on-week [1] - Shipments from Australia and Brazil amounted to 24.650 million tons, down 4.173 million tons week-on-week [1] - Australian shipments were 18.026 million tons, a decrease of 1.964 million tons, with shipments to China at 14.537 million tons, down 3.231 million tons [1] - Brazilian shipments were 6.624 million tons, a decrease of 2.209 million tons [1] Demand Summary - Daily average pig iron production was 2.3981 million tons, a decrease of 10,400 tons week-on-week [1] - The operating rate of steel mills' blast furnaces was 83.15%, down 0.31 percentage points week-on-week [1] - The profitability rate of steel mills was 59.74%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points week-on-week [1] Inventory Summary - The total iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 143.4689 million tons, a decrease of 1.3901 million tons week-on-week [1] - The average daily dispatch volume was 3.378 million tons, an increase of 36,100 tons week-on-week [1] Market Outlook - The seasonal decline in iron ore shipments is evident, particularly from Australia and Brazil, while near-term arrivals have increased [1] - The decline in pig iron production is attributed to routine maintenance in some regions and weather conditions in Hebei [1] - The port arrivals fell short of expectations, leading to a decrease in port inventories and an increase in steel mills' imported ore stocks [1] - As July approaches, macroeconomic expectations are influencing the market, with a rebound in related commodities due to "anti-involution" trends [1] - The healthy profitability of steel mills and the absence of significant supply pressure suggest a short-term upward price trend for iron ore, with a need for risk control and attention to market sentiment and macroeconomic developments [1]

Report Title - The report is titled "Black Metal Weekly - Iron Ore" [1] Investment Rating - The report does not mention an industry investment rating Core Viewpoint - Last week, the policy side continued to emphasize anti - involution, and the supply - side expectations boosted market sentiment. Considering the good profit per ton of steel, raw material prices fluctuated and rebounded. From the fundamental perspective, on the supply side, the global iron ore shipment this period dropped to the lowest in two and a half months, mainly due to the end of the rush of mainstream mines, with declines in both Australia and Brazil; on the demand side, the pig iron output decreased slightly this period, slightly exceeding market expectations. It is necessary to continue to monitor the pig iron output, and there is a risk of decline in the north in August. It is expected to fluctuate between 85 - 95 US dollars in the near future, and cautious operation is recommended [10] Summary by Directory Part I: Fundamentals and Conclusions Price and Inventory - Last week, iron ore spot prices fluctuated and rebounded, with increases ranging from 7 - 18 yuan. As of July 4, the Platts 62% index closed at $95.7, up $1.3 week - on - week, equivalent to about 799 yuan in RMB at the exchange rate of 7.16. The optimal deliverable was NM powder, with a latest quotation of about 716 yuan/ton and a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 736 yuan/ton. The 09 iron ore contract was at a discount to the spot. The 47 - port iron ore inventory in China increased week - on - week and was lower than the same period last year. The total inventory of 47 ports was 14,485.9 tons, up 6 tons week - on - week, down 1,125 tons from the beginning of the year, and 1,108 tons lower than the same period last year. It is predicted that the inventory at 47 ports may increase slightly in the next period [7] Supply - Shipment: The total global iron ore shipment this period was 2,994.9 tons, a decrease of 362.7 tons week - on - week. The shipment of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 2,417.8 tons, a decrease of 369.3 tons week - on - week. Australia's shipment was 1,764.0 tons, a decrease of 145.1 tons week - on - week, and the shipment to China was 1,415.1 tons, a decrease of 282.2 tons week - on - week. Brazil's shipment was 653.8 tons, a decrease of 224.3 tons week - on - week. - Arrival: From June 30 to July 6, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,535.5 tons, an increase of 122.0 tons week - on - week; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,483.9 tons, an increase of 120.9 tons week - on - week; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,412.0 tons, an increase of 194.8 tons week - on - week [8] Demand - The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills decreased this week, with an average daily output of 240.85 tons/day, a decrease of 1.44 tons/day from last week, an increase of 10.34 tons/day from the beginning of the year, and an increase of 1.53 tons/day year - on - year. There were 3 new blast furnace restart and 7 blast furnace overhauls this period. According to the blast furnace start - stop plan, the pig iron output may continue to decline in the next period. As of July 4, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China was 2,907 yuan, and the point - to - point profit was about 233 yuan; the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coil was about 243 yuan. In the electric - furnace market, the flat - rate electricity cost of electric furnaces in East China was about 3,293 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3,162 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of rebar in East China was about - 223 yuan, and the off - peak electricity profit was about - 92 yuan [9] Part II: Data Sorting Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price - As of July 4, the optimal deliverable was NM powder with a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 736 yuan/ton, and the sub - optimal deliverable was PB powder with a converted warehouse receipt of about 749 yuan/ton [15] Iron Ore Inter - period Spread - As of July 4, the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore closed at 25.5 (- 1.5) [18] Premium Index - As of July 4, the premium index of 62.5% lump ore was 0.1635 (+ 0.0085); the premium index of 65% pellet was 13.15 (+ 0.15) [28] Steel Mill Sintered Ore Inventory - As of July 4, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore of 64 sample steel mills was 1,230 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 0.02%; the inventory of domestic sintered powder ore was 8 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 0.41%; the inventory survey of imported ore was 19 days, unchanged from the previous week [33] 247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory and Daily Consumption - As of July 4, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8,918.6 tons, an increase of 71.10 tons from the previous week, an increase of 0.80%; the daily consumption of imported ore was 300.8 tons, a decrease of 0.44 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 0.15%; the inventory - to - consumption ratio of imported ore was 29.7 days, an increase of 0.28 days from the previous week, an increase of 0.95% [36] Port Inventory and Berthing Vessels - The data shows the historical trends of port total inventory (45 ports), berthing vessel numbers at 45 ports, Australian ore inventory at ports (45 ports), Brazilian ore inventory at ports (45 ports), and trade ore inventory at ports (45 ports) [39] Port Inventory by Ore Type - As of July 4, the inventory of imported port lump ore was 1,513 tons, an increase of 1 ton from the previous week, an increase of 0.65%; the inventory of imported port pellet ore was 487 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the inventory of imported port iron concentrate was 1,228 tons, an increase of 45 tons from the previous week, an increase of 3.83%; the inventory of imported port coarse powder was 10,650 tons, a decrease of 107 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 1.00% [42] Shipment Volume - The data shows the historical shipment volume data from 2020 - 2025 [45] Iron Ore Seaborne Volume - The data shows the historical seaborne volume data of iron ore from 2022 - 2025, including the seaborne volume from Australia to China, Brazil to China, and non - mainstream countries to China [48] Iron Ore Import Volume - The data shows the historical import volume data of iron ore from 2020 - 2025, including the import volume from Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries [53] Four Major Mines' Iron Ore Shipment Volume - As of July 4, the shipment volume of Rio Tinto was 366 tons, a decrease of 191 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 34.34%; the shipment volume of BHP was 518 tons, a decrease of 37 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 6.67%; the shipment volume of Vale was 502 tons, a decrease of 144 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 22.26%; the shipment volume of FMG was 330 tons, an increase of 14 tons from the previous week, an increase of 4.39%; the total shipment volume of the four major mines was 1,716 tons, a decrease of 358 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 17.27% [71] Iron Ore Arrival Volume - As of July 4, the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,484 tons, an increase of 121 tons from the previous week, an increase of 5.1%; the arrival volume at northern ports was 1,412 tons, an increase of 195 tons from the previous week, an increase of 16.0% [78] Domestic Ore Production - The data shows the historical production data of domestic ore from 2017 - 2025 [83] Pig Iron Output - The data shows the historical daily average pig iron output data from 2016 - 2025, including the data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association. In 2025, compared with 2024, the daily average pig iron output increased by 1.71%, 1.71%, 3.62%, 1.32%, - 2.65% respectively [90] Global Pig Iron Output - The data shows the historical pig iron output data of the EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China from 2020 - 2025 [93] Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Output - The data shows the historical pig iron output data of regions outside China from 2017 - 2025 [98]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that iron ore prices are experiencing fluctuations, with current spot prices for PB powder at 707 CNY/ton and super special powder at 600 CNY/ton [1] - As of July 1, 2025, various ports in China show different pricing for iron ore, with prices ranging from 650 CNY/ton to 762 CNY/ton depending on the type and origin of the ore [1] - The futures market closed at 708.5 CNY/ton on July 1, with a decline of 1.32%, indicating a volatile trading environment [1] Group 2 - On June 30, the total iron ore transactions at major ports in China reached 896,000 tons, reflecting a 5.29% decrease compared to the previous period [3] - The total iron ore arrival at 47 ports in China from June 23 to June 29 was 24.135 million tons, a decrease of 3.594 million tons from the prior week [3] - The report from Baocun Futures suggests that while iron ore demand shows some resilience, the overall market sentiment is improving, but supply remains high, leading to a forecast of continued price fluctuations [4]

Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: June 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the iron ore price is weak, but there is still some support at the bottom due to the relatively high profitability of steel enterprises. Nearly 60% of steel enterprises are still profitable, which may slow down the pace of steel production cuts [10][11]. - In the long - term, real estate investment is falling at a rate of about 10%, and infrastructure investment cannot make up for the real estate gap. After the 90 - day suspension period in the US, the uncertainty of steel exports will gradually emerge, and the high steel production may not be sustainable. Coupled with the increasing supply of iron ore after the Xipo project is put into production, the chain of "declining terminal demand - narrowing steel enterprise profits - steel enterprise production cuts - trend decline in ore prices" may appear in the second half of the year [11]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1行情回顾与后市展望 3.1.1 Market Review - On June 13, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated weakly, opened lower, rebounded slightly after a small decline, and then weakened again, closing at 703.0 yuan/ton, down 0.14% [7]. - The table shows the price, trading volume, and open interest of steel and iron ore futures main contracts on June 13. For example, the RB2510 contract closed at 2969 yuan/ton, down 0.20%, with a trading volume of 2,168,544 lots and an open interest of 2,135,661 lots, a decrease of 84,364 lots [5]. - The table also shows the open interest of the top 20 long and short positions in black - series futures on June 13. For the I2509 contract, the top 20 long positions held 433,829 lots, a decrease of 17,165 lots, and the top 20 short positions held 459,805 lots, a decrease of 5,793 lots, with a deviation of - 2.55% [8]. 3.1.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - Spot market: On June 13, the main iron ore outer - market quotes were flat compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port were also flat [9]. - Technical analysis: The daily KDJ indicators of the iron ore 2509 contract showed a divergent trend. The K and D values continued to rise, while the J value turned down. The daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract showed a golden cross [9]. 3.1.3 Market Outlook - Short - term: The current fundamentals show that the iron - water production has declined for 5 consecutive weeks, and the downstream building - material demand is seasonally weak due to the rainy season. The supply has increased by more than 10% in the past four weeks compared with the previous four weeks, and overseas mines are in the end - of - quarter rush - to - volume stage. Overall, the supply is becoming more abundant, and the demand is gradually falling, resulting in a weakening pattern for the ore price. However, due to the relatively good profitability of steel enterprises, the short - term ore price is weak but has some support [10][11]. - Long - term: Real estate investment is falling at a rate of about 10%, and infrastructure investment cannot make up for the real estate gap. After the 90 - day suspension period in the US, the uncertainty of steel exports will gradually emerge, and the high steel production may not be sustainable. Coupled with the increasing supply of iron ore after the Xipo project is put into production, the chain of "declining terminal demand - narrowing steel enterprise profits - steel enterprise production cuts - trend decline in ore prices" may appear in the second half of the year [11]. 3.2 Industry News - The US Department of Commerce will impose additional tariffs on a variety of steel - made household appliances from June 23, including dishwashers, washing machines, and refrigerators [12]. - In the first five months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 18.63 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. Different components of social financing scale had different changes, such as an increase of 10.38 trillion yuan in RMB loans to the real economy, a decrease of 963 billion yuan in foreign - currency loans to the real economy, etc. [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price difference between high - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the price difference between low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot at Qingdao Port and the September contract, the shipping volume of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization rate, the trading volume of iron ore at main ports, the number of days of iron ore inventory available for steel mills, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the inventory and dredging volume of iron ore at ports, the tax - free iron - water cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, the national daily average iron - water production, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly production of five major steel products, and the inventory of five major steel products at steel mills [16][18][24][27][28][35][40][45].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to be weak with the increase in Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and arrivals, the reversal of the decline in domestic port inventories, the continuous decline in blast furnace operating rates and daily hot metal production, and the weakening of iron ore demand. The I2509 contract is recommended to consider a strategy of short - selling on rebounds [10]. - Given the continued decline in hot metal production, the reversal of the decline in iron ore port inventories, and the potential increase in inventory pressure during the consumption off - season, it is suggested to buy put options [55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - **Price**: As of June 13, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 703 (-4.5) yuan/ton, and the price of Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 760 (-10) yuan/dry ton [8]. - **Shipment**: From June 2 - 8, 2025, the total global iron ore shipments were 3510.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 79.4 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2919.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 50.6 tons [8]. - **Arrival**: From June 2 - 8, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 2673.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 76.5 tons; at 45 ports, it was 2609.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 72.8 tons; at the six northern ports, it was 1383.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 157.2 tons [8]. - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal production was 241.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 2.30 tons [8]. - **Inventory**: As of June 13, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14503.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 102.83 tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 8798.68 tons, a week - on - week increase of 108.5 tons [7][8]. - **Profitability**: The profitability rate of steel mills was 58.44%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points from last week and an increase of 8.66 percentage points from last year [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The I2509 contract was weak this week, and its performance was weaker than that of the I2601 contract. On the 13th, the spread was 30.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton [16]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Net Position**: On June 13, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 2700, a week - on - week increase of 800. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the ore futures contract was 30252, an increase of 6809 from the previous week [23]. - **Spot Price**: On June 13, the price of 61% Australian Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 760 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 13th, the basis was 57 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/ton [29]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Arrival Volume**: From June 2 - 8, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 Chinese ports increased [33]. - **Port Inventory**: This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14503.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 102.83 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 8798.68 tons, a week - on - week increase of 108.50 tons [36]. - **Inventory Availability**: As of June 12, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore for large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 21 days, a week - on - week increase of 2 days [39]. - **Import Volume and Capacity Utilization**: In May, China imported 9813.1 tons of iron ore and concentrates, a decrease of 500.7 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 4.9%. From January - May, the cumulative import was 48640.9 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of June 13, the capacity utilization rate of 266 mines was 61.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03% [42]. - **Domestic Production**: In April 2025, China's iron ore production was 8469.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. From January - April, the cumulative production was 32859.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.2%. The iron concentrate production of 433 iron mines was 2301.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 57.2 tons, a decrease of 2.4% [46]. 3.4. Downstream Situation - **Crude Steel Production**: In April, China's crude steel production was 8602 tons, the same as the previous year. From January - April, the cumulative production was 34535 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [49]. - **Steel Export and Import**: In May 2025, China exported 1057.8 tons of steel, an increase of 11.6 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. From January - May, the cumulative export was 4846.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. In May, China imported 48.1 tons of steel, a decrease of 4.1 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 7.9%. From January - May, the cumulative import was 255.3 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1% [49]. - **Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Hot Metal Production**: On June 13, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.41%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from last week and an increase of 1.36 percentage points from last year. The daily average hot metal production was 241.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.30 tons [52]. 3.5. Options Market - Given the continued decline in hot metal production and the reversal of the decline in iron ore port inventories, it is recommended to buy put options [55].

铁矿石产业链日报 2025/6/10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 698.50 | -4.50↓ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 721,095 | +1354↑ | | | I 9-1合约价差（元/吨） | 35 | -1.50↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -30109 | -6935↓ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 2,600.00 | 0.00 | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 94.4 | -0.30↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 784 | -2↓ 青岛港60.8%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 763 | -2↓ | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 678 | -5↓ I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力合约) | 65 | +2↑ | | | 铁矿石62%普氏指数（前一日，美元/吨） | 95.20 ...

Market Review - Iron ore futures for the 2509 contract fell by 0.56%, closing at 704 CNY/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - From June 2 to June 8, 2025, global iron ore shipments totaled 35.104 million tons, an increase of 794,000 tons week-on-week. Shipments from Australia and Brazil amounted to 29.194 million tons, up by 506,000 tons. Australian shipments reached 21.699 million tons, increasing by 2.493 million tons, with shipments to China at 18.92 million tons, up by 3.922 million tons. Brazilian shipments totaled 7.496 million tons, down by 1.987 million tons [2] - During the same period, China's 47 ports received 26.739 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 765,000 tons; 45 ports received 26.093 million tons, up by 728,000 tons; while the six northern ports received 13.836 million tons, down by 1.572 million tons. According to the General Administration of Customs, in the first five months, China imported 486 million tons of iron ore, a decrease of 5.2%, with an average import price of 707.2 CNY per ton, down by 16.4% [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhengxin Futures noted that with increased shipments from Australia and Brazil, port arrivals have significantly rebounded, indicating an overall improvement in supply. However, iron and steel production has decreased for four consecutive weeks, with a mix of furnace maintenance and restarts leading to a continuous decline in demand. Port inventories are decreasing, and steel mill inventories are slightly down, with shipping volumes continuing to decline. Overall, supply is improving while demand is slowing, indicating a weak fundamental outlook for the industry, with potential for prices to decline further. The strategy suggested is to maintain a short position, increasing short positions on rebounds, and holding positions for the medium term [3] - Galaxy Futures highlighted that iron ore supply remains stable and is entering a seasonal peak, while demand from the steel industry is high but entering a low season. Overall market sentiment is declining, and iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [3]

「2025.06.06」 铁矿石市场周报 研究员：蔡跃辉 添加客服 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 瑞达期货研究院 业务咨询 目录 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至6月6日收盘，铁矿主力合约期价为707.5（+5.5）元/吨，青岛港麦克粉776（-1）元/干吨。 2. 发运：本期澳巴发运总量环比+242.3万吨。2025年05月27日-06月02日Mysteel全球铁矿石发运总量3431.0万吨，环比增加 242.3万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2868.8万吨，环比增加78.8万吨。澳洲发运总量1920.5万吨，环比减少92.7万吨，其中澳 洲发往中国的量1499.8万吨，环比减少281.4万吨。巴西发运量948.3万吨，环比增加171.5万吨。 3. 到港：本期47港到港量+253.3万吨。2025年05月26日-06月01日中国47港到港总量2597.4万吨，环比增加253.3万 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 更新时间：2025年06月05日08时09分 一、螺纹、热卷 报告导读： 消息面上，有传言称外蒙将上调煤炭资源税至 20%，目前尚没有该国官方消息发布。 特朗普将钢铝关税提高至 50%，可能对钢材出口形成更大的 压力。 目前政策面利多基本兑现，前期中美贸易紧张局势缓解也体现在价格中 。房地产仍处于筑底过程中，对钢材的需求仍边际减弱。上周我的钢 铁公布的数据显示，产量有所回落，厂库下降，社库继续回落，总库存下降，表观需求环比微幅上升，数据对期价有所提振。从需求的季节性规律 看，表观需求高峰期已过，随着雨季和高温天气的到来，需求将进一步走弱。限产传闻对市场提振作用有限。钢企普遍认为，行业确实需要减产， 但近期钢企亏损状况有所改善，企业主动减产的动力偏弱。整体来看，目前市场逐渐由强现实向弱现实转变 ，弱预期也没有发生实质性的改变。从 技术上看，价格跌破了近期的震荡区间，形成向下的有效突破，短线在消息面刺激下的反弹不影响趋势的延续 。 操作建议： 空单持有 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas risk events are increasing, while domestic policy expectations are positive. The iron ore port inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks, and the molten iron output has decreased for two consecutive weeks, weakening demand support. The sluggish steel market may drag down iron ore prices. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rebounds for the I2509 contract, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. - The continuous decline in iron ore arrivals and port inventory supports the ore price, but as the molten iron output corrects from its high level, the support from the demand side weakens. It is suggested to buy out - of - the - money put options [55]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Highlights 1.1 Price - As of the close on May 23, the price of the iron ore main contract was 718 (-10) yuan/ton, and the price of Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 801 (-15) yuan/dry ton [6]. 1.2 Shipment - From May 12 to May 18, 2025, the total global iron ore shipment was 3.3478 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 318,800 tons. The total shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2.7755 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 283,200 tons. Australia's shipment was 1.8887 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 46,100 tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1.635 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 800 tons. Brazil's shipment was 886,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 237,100 tons [6]. 1.3 Arrival - From May 12 to May 18, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.2804 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 289,600 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.2713 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 83,300 tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1.0578 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 203,600 tons [6]. 1.4 Demand - The daily average molten iron output was 2.436 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 68,000 tons [6]. 1.5 Inventory - As of May 23, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 14.59183 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 155,160 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 914,490 tons. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 8.92548 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35,680 tons [6]. 1.6 Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills was 59.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.63 percentage points [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market 2.1 Futures Price - This week, the I2509 contract fluctuated weakly. The I2509 contract was weaker than the I2601 contract. On the 23rd, the price difference was 35.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton [14]. 2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On May 23, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1,900, a week - on - week decrease of 100. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the iron ore futures contract was 14,267, an increase of 4,643 compared with the previous week [21]. 2.3 Spot Price - On May 23, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden powder ore at Qingdao Port was 801 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 23rd, the basis was 83 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [27]. 3. Industry Situation 3.1 Arrival Volume - From May 12 to May 18, 2025, the total global iron ore shipment was 3.3478 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 318,800 tons. The total shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2.7755 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 283,200 tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.2804 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 289,600 tons [30]. 3.2 Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14.59183 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 155,160 tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 343,190 tons, an increase of 3,600 tons. The inventory of Australian ore decreased by 97,400 tons, Brazilian ore decreased by 71,390 tons, and trade ore decreased by 137,340 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills was 8.92548 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35,680 tons; the daily consumption of imported ore was 301,870 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,040 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.57 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 days [33]. 3.3 Inventory Available Days - As of May 22, the average inventory available days of imported iron ore for large and medium - sized steel mills in China was 20 days, a week - on - week decrease of 2 days. On May 22, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,341, a week - on - week decrease of 47 [38]. 3.4 Import Volume and Capacity Utilization - In April 2025, China imported 103.138 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%; from January to April, the import volume was 388.36 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. As of May 16, the capacity utilization rate of 266 sampled mines was 66.41%, a week - on - week increase of 0.91%; the inventory was 634,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 42,500 tons [42]. 3.5 Domestic Ore Output - In April 2025, China's iron ore output was 84.696 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%; from January to April, the cumulative output was 328.596 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.2%. In March, the iron concentrate output of 433 iron mines was 2.3587 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 246,500 tons or 11.7%; from January to March, the cumulative output was 6.7368 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 470,300 tons or 6.5% [46]. 4. Downstream Situation 4.1 Crude Steel Output - In April, China's crude steel output was 86.02 million tons, the same as the previous year; from January to April, the cumulative output was 345.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [49]. 4.2 Steel Exports and Imports - In April 2025, China exported 10.462 million tons of steel, a year - on - year increase of 13.4%; from January to April, the export volume was 37.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In April, China imported 522,000 tons of steel, a year - on - year decrease of 20.7%; from January to April, the import volume was 2.072 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [49]. 4.3 Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Molten Iron Output - On May 23, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.19 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 91.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.78 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.436 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 68,000 tons [52]. 5. Options Market - It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options as the arrival and port inventory of iron ore continue to decline, supporting the ore price, but the support from the demand side weakens as the molten iron output corrects from its high level [55].