1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, the short - term view on the iron ore market is "oscillation" [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Iron ore prices continue to oscillate weakly. The seasonal decline in hot metal production and cautious procurement by steel mills have led to a marginal weakening on the demand side. Supply shipments are stable, port inventories are continuously rising, and valuations have returned to high levels, suppressing the price rebound momentum. The short - term pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged, and the market focus has shifted to the extent of hot metal production cuts in January and policy expectations. It is expected that prices will continue to oscillate. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Global Shipment Volume**: This week, the global iron ore shipment volume was 34.645 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.28 million tons (-3.56%); Australian shipments were 19.506 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02 million tons (-4.97%); Brazilian shipments were 8.641 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.488 million tons (-5.35%); the combined shipments from Australia and Brazil were 28.147 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.508 million tons (-5.09%). [3][37] - **Four Major Mines' Shipment Volume**: The report presents the shipment volume data of four major mines, including BHP, Rio Tinto, FMG, and Vale, both globally and to China, through multiple charts [46][49]. - **Domestic Mines**: The capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 58.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.96% (-1.61%); the daily output of iron concentrate powder was 371,000 tons per day, a week - on - week decrease of 61,000 tons per day (-1.62%). [57] - **Freight**: The freight from Western Australia to Qingdao dropped to $8.91 per ton, a week - on - week decrease of $1.45 per ton (-13.99%); the freight from Brazil to Qingdao was $23.62 per ton, a week - on - week decrease of $0.68 per ton (-2.80%). [53] - **Arrival Volume at Chinese Ports**: This week, the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 Chinese ports was 26.467 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.767 million tons (-2.82%). [3][55] 3.2 Demand - **Steel Enterprise Production**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 84.94%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01% (+0.01%); the daily average hot metal output was 2.2658 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 300 tons (+0.01%); the profit ratio was 37.23%, a week - on - week increase of 1.30% (+3.62%). [3][65] - **Sintered Powder Consumption**: The daily average consumption of domestic sintered powder was 78,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,000 tons (-0.38%); the daily average consumption of imported sintered powder was 610,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,500 tons (+9.01%). [67] - **Global Steel Production**: The report shows the production data of global blast furnace pig iron, Chinese blast furnace pig iron, and global crude steel through multiple charts [74][77][78]. - **Port Dredging**: The report presents the seasonal data of 45 - port dredging volume, the daily average dredging volume of Qingdao Port, and port spot transactions through charts [84]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 45 Chinese ports was 158.5866 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.4603 million tons (+2.23%); the iron ore inventory at 47 Chinese ports was 166.1996 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.9443 million tons (+2.43%). [3][87] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The imported ore inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 88.6019 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3624 million tons (+1.56%); the imported sintered powder inventory was 12.0626 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 257,700 tons (+2.18%). [94] 3.4 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The settlement price of the main contract was 776.50 yuan per ton, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.50 yuan per ton (-0.08%); the basis was 30.02 yuan per ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 4.29 yuan per ton (-12.50%); the Platts iron ore price index was 107.90 US dollars per dry ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.20 US dollars per dry ton (+0.19%); the main - contract screw - to - ore ratio was 4.003. [7] - **Spot Market**: The report shows the prices of Platts iron ore index, port spot, and different - grade iron ores through multiple charts [17][19][20] 3.5 Other Information - **Key News and Industrial Chain Dynamics**: Include steel mill dynamics, mine dynamics, and macro - news, such as MagIron's proposed acquisition of RevnoIds pellet plant, Champion Iron's proposed acquisition of Rana Gruber, and the State Council Premier's plan to formulate major projects [4]. - **Market View Summary**: The overall market view is that supply and demand are loose but expectations are improving. With high inventories, the market oscillates strongly, and macro - sentiment supports prices. There are differences in short - term iron ore trends, mainly due to the game between the expected marginal improvement in supply and demand and high inventories and weak demand. [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The port shows a trend of inventory accumulation, with relatively loose supply. However, steel mills' raw material inventories are generally at medium - low levels. Near the year - end winter storage, there is a certain expectation for buying, and the firm spot prices support the futures price. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 777.50 yuan/ton, up 9.50 yuan; the position volume is 518,155 lots, up 29,159 lots. The I 1 - 5 contract spread is 19.5 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract is 14,165 lots, up 5,994 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt is 1,300 lots, down 100 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract is quoted at 104.75 US dollars/ton as of 15:00, up 1.10 US dollars [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 854 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fine ore is 849 yuan/dry ton, up 6 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port is 758 yuan/dry ton, up 6 yuan. The basis of the I main contract is 72 yuan, down 3 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index is 107.10 US dollars/ton (previous day), up 0.90 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 3.09, unchanged. The estimated import cost is 869 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipping volume is 3,592.50 million tons (weekly), up 224.00 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2,928.10 million tons (weekly), up 358.90 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports is 16,111.47 million tons (weekly), up 120.36 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills is 8,834.20 million tons (weekly), down 150.53 million tons. The iron ore import volume is 11,054.00 million tons (monthly), down 77.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore are 21 days (weekly), up 4 days. The daily output of 266 mines is 37.87 million tons (weekly), up 0.07 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines is 60.07%, up 0.05%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines is 44.97 million tons (weekly), up 5.41 million tons. The BDI index is 2,121.00, down 83.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 24.30 US dollars/ton, down 0.70 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 10.365 US dollars/ton, down 0.16 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.61% (weekly), down 1.53%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.90% (weekly), down 1.16%. The domestic crude steel output is 6,987 million tons (monthly), down 213 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 13.51% (daily), up 0.66%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.67% (daily), up 0.26%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 15.87% (daily), down 0.09%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 16.32% (daily), up 0.50% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From December 8th to December 14th, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,172.0 million tons, a decrease of 23.6 million tons compared with the previous period, showing a slight decline. The current inventory level is slightly lower than the average since the fourth quarter of this year [2] 3.7 Key Points to Watch - The iron ore port inventory in China, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of steel mills on Friday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the price of iron ore fluctuated around $106 per ton, with an average price of $106.3 per ton in December. Pig iron production continued to decline, and port iron ore inventories increased. With the successful shipment of the first batch of iron ore from Simandou and Vale's announcement of a 10 million - ton year - on - year increase in its iron ore production target for fiscal year 2026, the current outlook for iron ore is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [5][33] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract rose 0.13%. Mysteel statistics showed that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 153.0081 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.9069 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.1845 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1213 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.16%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.93% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.31 percentage points; the daily average pig iron production was 2.323 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0238 million tons [4] 3.2 Important Market Information - According to China Iron and Steel Association data, in late November, key steel enterprises produced 18.18 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.818 million tons, a daily output decrease of 6.4% week - on - week. It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel was 2.16 million tons, a decrease of 6.4% week - on - week; the daily output of pig iron was 2.09 million tons, a decrease of 1.3% week - on - week; and the daily output of steel products was 4.09 million tons, an increase of 3.2% week - on - week. The social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.33 million tons, a decrease of 0.38 million tons or 4.4% week - on - week. The inventory has been decreasing continuously, and the decline has widened [15] 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of October 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 111.309 million tons, a decrease of 5.021 million tons from the previous month; the import average price was $100.56 per ton, an increase of $3.61 per ton from the previous month. As of November 2025, the iron ore shipment volume from Australia was 61.849 million tons, a decrease of 4.993 million tons from the previous month; the iron ore shipment volume from Brazil was 30.963 million tons, an increase of 1.708 million tons from the first half of the month [21][22] 3.4 Demand - side Situation - The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased, and other demand - related indicators such as the profitability rate of 247 steel mills and the Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume are mentioned but no specific summarized data is provided in this output [23][29] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Mysteel statistics showed that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 153.0081 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.9069 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.1845 million tons, a decrease of 0.1213 million tons; the number of ships at ports was 109, a decrease of 3. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 159.9111 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8989 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3423 million tons, a decrease of 0.0983 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.16%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.93% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.31 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 87.08%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.25%; the steel mill profitability rate was 36.36%, a week - on - week increase of 1.30% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.42%; the daily average pig iron production was 2.323 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0238 million tons [32] 3.6 Market Outlook - The current outlook for iron ore is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [5][33] 3.7 Operation Strategies - Single - side: Go short lightly on rallies; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [6][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel market, due to a significant decline in steel mill gross margins and the end of the consumption peak, the scale of steel mill production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal level, potentially triggering a phased negative feedback loop. Recently, the prices of coal and coke have shown signs of weakening, and the price of iron ore has fallen from its high, weakening the cost support for steel. Technically, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils have broken below the support of the 10 - day moving average, and are facing a direction choice after a short - term narrow - range oscillation [2]. - For the iron ore market, with the arrival of the consumption off - season, it is expected that the molten iron production will likely continue to decline along the seasonal trend, and the steel mill's production cuts will suppress the raw material prices. On the supply side, the global shipments have declined from their highs, and the port inventory is rising, suppressing the futures price. The slow destocking of steel also dampens the overall market sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the apparent demand for rebar decreased month - on - month, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. The inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased month - on - month but remained significantly higher than the same period in previous years. The national building steel output was 200.00 million tons, a decrease of 8.54 million tons (-4.10%); the hot - rolled coil output was 313.66 million tons, a decrease of 4.50 million tons (-1.41%) [2]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3053 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan (0.23%) from the previous day and 19 yuan (0.63%) from the previous week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3256 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan (0.06%) from the previous day and 11 yuan (0.34%) from the previous week [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, do not chase up or sell down. Wait patiently for the price to stabilize and then go long on dips. It is a medium - term trading strategy. Do not short when the price is low [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The molten iron production of sample steel mills increased month - on - month last week, but the output of the five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, the molten iron production is expected to decline seasonally. The global shipments have decreased from their highs, and it is expected that the arrival volume will decline later. The continuous increase in port inventory suppresses the futures price, and the slow destocking of steel dampens the market sentiment [3]. - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 772.5 yuan/dry ton, up 12.0 yuan (1.58%) from the previous week. The SGX iron ore continuous - one settlement price was 102.59 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.93 US dollars (-0.90%) from the previous week [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and patiently wait for the price to stabilize and then go long on dips [3]. 3.3 Industry News - As of November 14, according to Zhonglian Steel's research, the change in the national blast furnace start - up rate was small. The national blast furnace number start - up rate was 74.21%, flat compared with the previous week and up 0.33% year - on - year; the blast furnace volume start - up rate was 78.36%, down 0.18% compared with the previous week and up 1.21% year - on - year [6]. - As of November 14, according to Zhonglian Steel's research, the start - up rate of electric furnaces in the country increased. The national electric furnace number start - up rate rose 1.28 percentage points to 60.90% compared with last Friday, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate rose 0.61 percentage points to 52.55% [6]. - On November 14, Hebei market steel mills raised the purchase price of coke by 50/55 yuan/ton [6]. - On November 14, Mongolia ETT Company conducted an online auction of coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal was 94.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.4 US dollars/ton compared with the previous period on October 31 [7]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports across the country was 15129.71 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230.88 million tons [7]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills across the country was 9076.01 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 66.07 million tons [7]. - According to Steelhome data, the total urban inventory this week was 910.07 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.25 million tons (-2.49%) [8].

Group 1 - Iron ore futures experienced a slight decline, with PB powder port spot prices at 775 CNY/ton and super special powder at 675 CNY/ton [1] - On November 11, 2025, the main iron ore futures contract closed at 763.0 CNY/ton, with a daily increase of 0.20%, reaching a high of 767.0 CNY/ton and a low of 759.0 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 262,391 contracts [1] Group 2 - CSN, a Brazilian steel and mining group, reported third-quarter iron ore production of 11.928 million tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.8% and a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, with sales reaching 12.396 million tons, up 4.8% quarter-on-quarter and 4.3% year-on-year [3] - From November 3 to November 9, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 12.626 million tons, an increase of 458,000 tons from the previous period, indicating a slight accumulation trend, with current inventory levels slightly below the median for the second half of the year [3] Group 3 - According to Guotou Anxin Futures research report, global iron ore shipments have decreased compared to the previous period but remain slightly above last year's levels, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining [4] - Domestic arrivals have significantly decreased but are still at high levels compared to the same period last year, while steel demand has weakened during the off-season, leading to increased losses for steel mills and continued production cuts [4] - The macroeconomic factors affecting the market are weakening, and the market is beginning to reflect the reality of marginal easing in iron ore, with expectations of a primarily fluctuating trend in iron ore prices [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Wednesday, the I2601 contract first declined and then rebounded. Macroeconomically, the U.S. Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again on the 4th, and the federal government's "shutdown" will set a record. In terms of supply and demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, while the arrival volume increased significantly. The domestic port inventory has increased for six consecutive weeks. The daily average pig iron output continued to decline, weakening the demand support. Coupled with the weak steel market squeezing furnace materials. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are operating at a low level. The operation suggestion is to short on rebounds and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 776.00 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan; the position volume was 544,659 lots, down 3,095 lots [2]. - The price difference between the I 1 - 5 contracts was 22 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 22,121 lots, down 8,273 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of the I Dalian Commodity Exchange were 1,000.00 lots, unchanged [2]. - The quotation of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 was 103.65 US dollars/ton, down 1.40 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 843 yuan/dry ton, down 4 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 840 yuan/dry ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 770 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 64 yuan, down 6 yuan [2]. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 104.60 US dollars/ton, down 1.25 US dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.23, up 0.03 [2]. - The estimated import cost was 853 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,213.80 million tons, down 174.50 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 3,314.10 million tons, up 1,229.80 million tons [2]. - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 15,272.93 million tons, up 163.44 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 8,849.86 million tons, down 229.33 million tons [2]. - The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 11,633.00 million tons, up 1,111.00 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 23.00 days, up 4 days [2]. - The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 40.35 million tons, up 0.20 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 63.97%, up 0.47% [2]. - The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 47.75 million tons, up 0.30 million tons; the BDI index was 1,958.00, up 13.00 [2]. - The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 22.99 US dollars/ton, down 0.02 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.485 US dollars/ton, up 0.37 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 81.73%, down 3.00%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 88.59%, down 1.33% [2]. - The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 7,349 million tons, down 388 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying (daily) was 18.33%, down 0.05%; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying (daily) was 16.21%, down 0.09% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 16.53%, up 0.56%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 14.55%, down 0.93% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,213.8 million tons, a decrease of 174.5 million tons compared with the previous period. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,759.2 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 864.1 million tons, a decrease of 77.5 million tons compared with the previous period [2]. - From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 3,314.1 million tons, an increase of 1,229.8 million tons compared with the previous period; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 3,218.4 million tons, an increase of 1,189.3 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,585.9 million tons, an increase of 490.0 million tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar continued to decline in a volatile manner, with a daily decline of 0.81%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. Under the current situation of weak supply and demand, the industrial contradictions in the rebar industry are accumulating, the pressure of inventory reduction is relatively large, and the steel price continues to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is the cost support. With the game between multiple and short factors, it is expected that the steel price will seek the bottom in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil plate fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.70%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. At present, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coil is relatively large, and there are concerns about demand. The industrial contradictions are accumulating, the inventory has increased significantly, and the price of hot-rolled coil continues to be under pressure and operate weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance and beware of the intensification of industrial contradictions caused by the weakening of demand [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore turned weak and declined, with a daily decline of 2.07%, and both the volume and open interest increased. At present, the demand for iron ore is performing well, which supports the price of iron ore. However, the supply of iron ore is high, and the resilience of demand is weakening. The fundamental expectation is weakening, and the upward driving force of the high-valued iron ore price is not strong. It is expected that the trend will maintain a high-level volatile operation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In September 2025, 19,858 excavators of various types were sold, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%. Among them, domestic sales were 9,249 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%; exports were 10,609 units, a year-on-year increase of 29%. From January to September, a total of 174,039 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%. Among them, domestic sales were 89,877 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%; exports were 84,162 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [6]. - From January to September 2025, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 24.333 million and 24.363 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% and 12.9% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles both exceeded 11 million, a year-on-year increase of more than 30%, and the new car sales of new energy vehicles reached 46.1% of the total new car sales. From January to September, automobile exports were 4.95 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%. Among them, the export of new energy vehicles was 1.758 million, a year-on-year increase of 89.4%. From the perspective of the consumer terminal, from January to September, the retail sales of new energy vehicles maintained a high - speed growth of 24.4%, and the retail penetration rate in September reached 57.8% [7]. - The World Steel Association expects that the global steel demand in 2025 will be about 1.75 billion tons, the same as in 2024, and will rebound moderately by 1.3% in 2026 to reach 1.772 billion tons [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil plate, Tangshan billet, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap all showed varying degrees of decline. The prices of 61.5% PB powder, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index also decreased, while the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained unchanged, and the ocean freight increased slightly [9]. Futures Market - The closing prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil plate, and iron ore futures all declined. The decline rates were 0.81%, 0.70%, and 2.07% respectively. The trading volume of rebar and hot-rolled coil plate decreased, while that of iron ore increased. The open interest of all three increased [11]. Relevant Charts - Multiple charts show the inventory changes of steel and iron ore (including rebar, hot-rolled coil plate, and iron ore in ports and at steel mills), as well as the production situation of steel mills (including blast furnace operation rate, capacity utilization rate, electric furnace operation rate, and profitability) [13][20][28]. Market Outlook - For rebar, the supply and demand are both weak during the holiday. The production of construction steel mills is weak, and the weekly output decreased by 36,200 tons. The supply has shrunk to a relatively low level, but the space for production reduction during the peak season is questionable, and the inventory is high, so the positive effect is not strong. The demand is also weak, and the weekly apparent demand decreased. Weak demand will continue to suppress the steel price. It is expected that the steel price will seek the bottom in a volatile manner under the game of multiple and short factors [35]. - For hot-rolled coil plate, the supply and demand pattern continues to weaken. The production of plate steel mills is weakly stable, and the weekly output decreased by 14,000 tons, but it is still at a high level within the year, and the inventory is high, so the supply pressure is relatively large. The demand during the holiday is weak, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 336,400 tons. Although the production of cold-rolled products, the main downstream, remains at a high level, there are concerns about the demand for hot-rolled coil. The price of hot-rolled coil continues to be under pressure and operate weakly [35]. - For iron ore, the supply and demand have changed. The production of steel mills is stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore remains at a high level. The demand for iron ore is performing well, but the industrial contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and the resilience is expected to weaken. The arrival at domestic ports continues to rise, and the overseas miners' shipments decline slightly, both maintaining high levels within the year. The supply pressure of iron ore increases. It is expected that the price of iron ore will maintain a high-level volatile operation [36].

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Report [1] - Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Report Core View - The negotiation between Sinomine Group and BHP may increase market risk aversion, and iron ore prices are strongly supported at the bottom. They are expected to consolidate at high levels in the near future. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand, which could boost iron ore prices if it recovers quickly [11] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Market Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On October 10, the main iron ore futures contract 2601 oscillated upward, opened higher and then oscillated, closing at 795 yuan/ton, up 1.02%. The main contract prices of other steel products also had different changes. For example, RB2601 closed at 3103 yuan/ton, up 0.52%; HC2601 closed at 3285 yuan/ton, up 0.37%; SS2512 closed at 12805 yuan/ton, down 0.12% [5][7] - In the spot market, on October 10, the main iron ore foreign market quotes rose by $1.5/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main-grade iron ore at Qingdao Port rose by 5 - 7 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [9] - Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract showed a divergent trend, with the K and J values continuing to rise and the D value continuing to fall, showing a potential golden cross. The green bars of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract narrowed for two consecutive trading days [9] 3.1.2 Outlook - There are reports that Sinomine Group has suspended purchasing imported iron ore produced by BHP priced in US dollars, and there are rumors that BHP has agreed to fulfill long - term contracts priced in RMB, but the news is unconfirmed, bringing some support to iron ore prices [10] - In terms of fundamentals, the shipments and arrivals from Australia and Brazil increased in September, possibly due to end - of - quarter volume surges. Considering the uncertainty of the negotiation results and the regular decline after the end of the volume surge, shipments and arrivals are expected to decline in October [11] - On the demand side, the daily average pig iron output is still at a relatively high level of over 2.4 million tons. Given the continuous narrowing of steel production profits, the growth space of output is limited, and it may oscillate at around 2.4 million tons in the short term [11] - In terms of inventory, steel mills increased their restocking efforts before the holiday, and the iron ore inventory of steel mills continued to grow. It is expected to gradually decline after the holiday, but the decline may not be significant in the short term due to the uncertainty of the negotiation between Sinomine Group and BHP [11] 3.2 Industry News - On the 10th, the Israeli government approved a cease - fire agreement in Gaza, which will end the war, release Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, and allow humanitarian aid to enter the Gaza Strip [12] - Starting from October 14, 2025, the US will impose additional port service fees on Chinese - owned or - operated ships, Chinese - flagged ships, and Chinese - built ships. In response, China will collect special port fees on relevant US ships starting from the same date [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts related to the iron ore and steel industries, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade ore, low - grade ore and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and January contract at Qingdao Port, the shipments from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, the domestic mine capacity utilization rate, the main port iron ore trading volume, the steel mill iron ore inventory available days, the imported sintered powder ore inventory, the port iron ore inventory and dispatch volume, the sample steel mill tax - free pig iron cost, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products [14][18][22][24][26][29][34][38][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the I2601 contract rebounded with increased positions. Macroscopically, most Fed officials indicated that further policy easing in 2025 might be appropriate, with a few supporting no rate - cut in September. In terms of supply - demand, Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased this period while arrivals increased, and domestic port inventories turned from decreasing to increasing. Due to the holiday, downstream steel demand weakened and inventories increased. Overall, the expectation of blast furnace复产 by steel mills after the holiday and the expectation of continued Fed rate - cuts may support the iron ore price to run strongly. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels with an enlarged red column. The operation suggestion is to expect a volatile and upward trend with attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 790.50 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; the position volume was 459,565 lots, up 12,200 lots. The I 1 - 5 contract spread was 19.5 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 8,651 lots, up 6,698 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt was 500.00 lots, up 500.00 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 104.9 dollars/ton as of 15:00, up 0.77 dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 849 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore was 837 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 766 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 46 yuan, down 7 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 104.20 dollars/ton, up 0.10 dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to Qingdao Port 60.8% Mac fine ore was 3.30, down 0.02. The estimated import cost was 852 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,279.00 million tons, down 196.40 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports (weekly) was 2,775.80 million tons, up 172.10 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 14,550.68 million tons, up 169.00 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,736.39 million tons, up 426.96 million tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 10,522.00 million tons, up 60.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 26.00 days, up 1 day. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 40.04 million tons, down 0.77 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 63.28%, down 0.95%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 43.27 million tons, up 5.60 million tons. The BDI index was 1,963.00, up 16.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 25.46 dollars/ton (unchanged), and from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.34 dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 84.27%, down 0.20%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.63%, down 0.25%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 7,737 million tons, down 229 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 14.68%, up 0.46%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 17.10%, up 0.26%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 17.42%, down 1.96%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 18.02%, down 1.79% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From September 29 to October 5, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,279.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 196.4 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,825.9 million tons, with Australian shipments at 1,979.9 million tons (down 48.1 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1,661.2 million tons, down 110.2 million tons) and Brazilian shipments at 846.0 million tons (up 9.9 million tons). The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,775.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 172.1 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2,608.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 248.2 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,451.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 450.2 million tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The iron ore price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. In the short - term, the hot metal production remains strong, and the ore price is supported before steel mills reduce production. The positive market sentiment after the China - US leaders' call also has a positive impact on the ore price. Further observation of downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction speed is needed [11][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The global iron ore shipment volume was 35.731 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.169 million tons. Australia and Brazil's total iron ore shipment was 29.778 million tons, an increase of 6.482 million tons. Australia's shipment was 20.846 million tons, an increase of 2.622 million tons, with 18.362 million tons shipped to China, an increase of 3.049 million tons. Brazil's shipment was 8.932 million tons, an increase of 3.86 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.923 million tons, a decrease of 1.806 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 23.623 million tons, a decrease of 0.857 million tons [11][13]. - Demand: The daily average hot metal production was 2.4102 million tons, an increase of 0.047 million tons from last week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.35%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points [11][13]. - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 143.8168 million tons, a decrease of 0.7444 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.5103 million tons, an increase of 0.0664 million tons [11][13]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - Price Difference: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 73 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 18.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder price difference was 129 yuan/ton, a change of + 3.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price difference was 173 yuan/ton, a change of + 2.0 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was 28.0 yuan/ton, a change of + 10.5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Feeding Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feeding ratio was 15.05%, a change of - 0.25 percentage points. The lump ore feeding ratio was 12.28%, a change of + 0.4 percentage points. The sinter feeding ratio was 72.67%, a change of - 0.16 percentage points. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2285 yuan/ton, with no change; in Zhangjiagang, it was 2130 yuan/ton, a change of + 50 yuan/ton [25]. - Profit: The steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, a change of - 1.3 percentage points from last week. The PB powder import profit was - 14.01 yuan/wet ton [28]. - Freight: No specific data analysis on freight is provided in the summary part, only relevant charts are shown. 3.3. Inventory - Port Inventory: The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 138.0108 million tons, a change of - 0.4839 million tons. The pellet inventory was 291,240 tons, a change of + 3840 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory was 1.02666 million tons, a change of - 0.05196 million tons. The lump ore inventory was 1.67176 million tons, a change of + 0.04523 million tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 5.77557 million tons, a change of - 0.03094 million tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 5.26652 million tons, a change of + 0.0383 million tons [35][38][41]. - Steel Mill Inventory: The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory was 9.30943 million tons, an increase of 0.31638 million tons from last week [46]. 3.4. Supply Side - Overseas Shipment: The latest 19 - port data shows that Australia's shipment to China was 17.367 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.445 million tons. Brazil's shipment was 8.693 million tons, an increase of 3.818 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipment to China was 6.372 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.388 million tons. BHP's shipment to China was 4.798 million tons, an increase of 0.272 million tons. Vale's shipment was 6.112 million tons, an increase of 2.591 million tons. FMG's shipment to China was 3.981 million tons, an increase of 0.715 million tons [51][54][57]. - Arrival and Import: The latest 45 - port arrival volume was 23.623 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.857 million tons. In July, China's non - Australia and Brazil iron ore imports were 17.5216 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.1066 million tons [60]. - Domestic Mines: The domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 61.65%, a change of + 0.42 percentage points. The daily average iron concentrate powder output of domestic mines was 48,140 tons, a change of + 330 tons [66]. 3.5. Demand Side - Hot Metal Production and Capacity Utilization: The domestic daily average hot metal production was 2.4102 million tons, an increase of 0.047 million tons from last week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.35%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points [71]. - Ore Clearance and Consumption: The 45 - port iron ore daily average clearance volume was 3.3917 million tons, a change of + 0.0789 million tons. The steel mill's imported iron ore daily consumption was 2.9745 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.008 million tons [74]. 3.6. Basis As of September 19, the calculated iron ore BRBF basis was 50.16 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 5.85% [79].