1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for lead is "Strong" in the medium - term, with a focus on the performance during the consumption peak season [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The losses of secondary lead smelters have been repaired. For primary lead, smelters in Yunnan and other regions have undergone maintenance, resulting in a reduction in supply this week. For secondary lead, the supply of waste batteries is limited due to the off - season of replacement consumption, and the price of waste batteries has increased with the rise of raw materials. Meanwhile, the secondary lead price has been more significantly boosted, and the losses of smelters have been significantly repaired this week, leading to an increase in the operating rate of secondary lead [5]. - Driven by the expectation of the consumption peak season and the impact of the mid - year node, the downstream replenishment has strengthened marginally. At the mid - year node, some battery enterprises have increased their inventory preparation stage by stage. Coupled with the continued expectation of the subsequent consumption peak season, the inventory replenishment space of enterprises has also marginally expanded. It is expected that there will still be room for demand expansion during the traditional consumption peak season in the third quarter [5]. - The supply - demand contradiction may be more prominent in the third quarter, and the price will be on a medium - term upward trend. Currently, the replacement consumption is still weak, which restricts the supply of waste batteries. However, from the demand side, the subsequent strengthening of consumption is expected to provide support. The supply - demand contradiction may gradually become prominent, and the price may fluctuate upward. Attention should be paid to the consumption performance during the peak season in the third quarter [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Trading Volume, Open Interest) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract last week was 17,125 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.87%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,170 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.26%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 1,992 dollars/ton, with a decrease of 0.15%. The LME lead cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 22.14 dollars/ton last Friday, an increase of 6.35 dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was - 50 yuan/ton last Friday, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [6]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead warrant inventory last week was 45,885 tons, an increase of 2,025 tons compared to the previous week. The SHFE total lead inventory was 51,929 tons, an increase of 638 tons compared to the previous week. The social inventory was 56,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 273,425 tons, a decrease of 10,650 tons compared to the previous week, and the ratio of cancelled warrants was 25.85%, an increase of 0.60% compared to the previous week [6]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last Friday was 40,650 lots, an increase of 13,772 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 51,800 lots, an increase of 17,693 lots compared to the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 5,471 lots, an increase of 1,635 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 151,106 lots, a decrease of 2,923 lots compared to the previous week [6] 3.2 Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume of lead concentrate, domestic production, and inventory data are presented in the report. The import volume of lead concentrate shows certain fluctuations over the years. The inventory of lead concentrate in Lianyungang also fluctuates, and the operating rate of lead concentrate has its own trend. The processing fees for imported and domestic lead concentrates remain stable this week [24][25]. - **Primary and Secondary Lead**: For primary lead, smelters in Yunnan and other regions have undergone maintenance, resulting in a reduction in supply this week. The production and operating rate of primary lead show certain trends over the years. For secondary lead, the losses of smelters have been repaired this week, and the operating rate has increased. The production of primary lead and secondary lead combined also shows a certain trend [5][26]. - **Waste Batteries**: The supply of waste batteries is limited due to the off - season of replacement consumption, and the price of waste batteries has increased with the rise of raw materials. The price of waste batteries for electric vehicles and the cost of secondary lead show certain trends over the years [5][28] 3.3 Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The export volume of lead - acid batteries shows certain fluctuations over the years. The operating rate of lead - acid batteries is affected by the consumption peak season expectation and the mid - year node, showing a certain trend. The monthly finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers also show certain trends [32]. - **End - Users**: The monthly production of automobiles and motorcycles shows certain trends over the years. The actual consumption of lead also shows a certain trend [34]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices fluctuating in a narrow range. The significant losses of secondary lead smelters limit the downside of prices, while weak replacement consumption restricts the short - term upward momentum. In the medium to long term, there is a relatively good risk - reward ratio for long positions, and subsequent consumption growth is expected to provide support. Attention should be paid to the mid - year sales push in June and the consumption performance during the peak season in the third quarter [5] Summary by Directory Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract last week was 16,945 yuan, with a weekly increase of 0.98%. The closing price of the overnight session yesterday was 16,920 yuan, with a decline of 0.15%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead3 last week was 1,960.5 dollars, with a decline of 0.68% [6] - **Spread**: The LME lead spot premium changed from - 26.98 dollars to - 25.93 dollars, an increase of 1.05 dollars. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract changed from - 45 yuan to - 35 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan [6] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) lead warehouse receipts inventory increased by 2,430 tons to 44,229 tons, and the total SHFE lead inventory increased by 1,875 tons to 49,811 tons. The social inventory increased by 800 tons to 54,700 tons. The LME lead inventory decreased by 16,300 tons to 264,975 tons, and the注销仓单 ratio increased from 16% to 29.61% [6] - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last Friday was 32,714 lots, an increase of 1,861 lots compared to the previous week. The position was 43,604 lots, a decrease of 6,371 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead3 last Friday was 5,109 lots, an increase of 539 lots compared to the previous week. The position was 147,029 lots, a decrease of 122 lots [6] Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume of lead concentrate shows a certain trend over different years. The domestic production of lead concentrate also has its own pattern. The inventory of lead concentrate in Lianyungang fluctuates. The processing fees of imported and domestic lead concentrates remain stable, and the profits of lead concentrate smelting have changed [25][26] - **Waste Battery**: The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries and waste battery shells have changed. The cost, profit and loss of secondary lead are affected by waste battery prices, and currently, secondary lead is in a state of significant losses [29] - **Primary Lead**: The production of primary lead shows a certain trend over different years, and the weekly operating rate also fluctuates. The production of by - products such as silver also has corresponding changes [27][28] - **Secondary Lead**: The production of secondary lead shows a certain trend over different years, and the operating rate is currently at a low level. The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises also changes [27][29] Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Battery, End - User) - **Lead - Acid Battery**: The export volume of lead - acid batteries shows a certain trend over different years. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises fluctuates, and the finished product inventory days of enterprises and dealers also change [33] - **End - User**: The production of automobiles and motorcycles shows a certain trend over different years, and the actual consumption of lead also has corresponding changes [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with prices moving sideways at the bottom [3] - Low production of recycled lead continues, and lead ingot inventories are accumulating [4] - It is expected that from May to mid - June, downstream demand will be weak, and there will be significant upward pressure. However, the downside space for lead prices is not expected to be large, and prices will fluctuate within a range. In the medium - to - long - term, low - level buying operations can be considered, as subsequent consumption growth is expected to provide support [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Price**: The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 16,870 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.39%. The closing price of the overnight session yesterday was 16,915 yuan/ton, with an overnight increase of 0.27%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 1,944.5 dollars/ton, with a decrease of 0.41% [6] - **Transaction and Position Changes**: The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last Friday was 32,484 lots, an increase of 3,529 lots compared to the previous week. The position was 28,562 lots, a decrease of 4,892 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 3,624 lots, an increase of 829 lots compared to the previous week. The position was 146,138 lots, a decrease of 3,586 lots [6] - **Spread Changes**: The LME lead spot premium last Friday was - 4.45 dollars/ton, a decrease of 9.14 dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The spread between the near - month and the first - consecutive contract was - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [6] - **Inventory Changes**: The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory last week was 49,921 tons, an increase of 10,955 tons compared to the previous week. The social inventory was 56,100 tons, an increase of 8,600 tons compared to the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 248,850 tons, a decrease of 4,575 tons compared to the previous week [6] Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Recycled Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume and domestic production of lead concentrate showed certain trends from 2021 - 2025. The inventory of lead concentrate in Lianyungang also fluctuated during this period. The import and domestic processing fees and profits of lead concentrate had corresponding changes [24][25] - **Primary Lead**: The production and weekly operating rate of primary lead from 2021 - 2025 showed different trends. The production of primary lead by - products such as silver and sulfuric acid also had corresponding changes [26][27] - **Recycled Lead**: The production of recycled lead from 2021 - 2025 showed certain trends. The price of waste batteries, the cost and profit of recycled lead, and the raw material inventory of recycled lead smelting enterprises also had corresponding changes [28] Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The export volume, operating rate, and finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries from 2021 - 2025 showed different trends [32] - **End - Users**: The production of automobiles and motorcycles from 2021 - 2025 showed certain trends, and the actual consumption of lead also had corresponding changes [34]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the lead market has weak supply and demand, with significant upward pressure, but the downside space for lead prices is not expected to be large. It is expected to trade in a range. Battery companies, especially large ones, still have room to replenish inventory, which provides support when prices fall. In the second quarter, the supply of waste batteries is in a low - season. As long as demand does not collapse, the cost support of waste batteries remains significant. In the medium - to - long - term, buying at low levels can be considered, as subsequent consumption growth is expected to provide support [4] Summary by Directory Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE Lead Main Contract last week was 16,805 yuan, with a weekly increase of 0.21%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 was 1,950, with a decrease of 0.36%. The night - session closing price of SHFE Lead Main Contract was 16,880, with a night - session increase of 0.45% [7] - **Transaction and Position Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE Lead Main Contract last Friday was 28,955 lots, a decrease of 5,479 lots from the previous week. The position was 33,454 lots, a decrease of 2,652 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 4,140 lots, an increase of 1,325 lots from the previous week. The position was 149,724 lots, an increase of 2,660 lots [7] - **Spread Changes**: The LME lead premium changed from - 15.21 to 4.69, an increase of 19.9. The spread between nearby and first - continuous contracts changed from - 40 to 20, an increase of 60 [7] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE lead warrant inventory increased by 291 to 38,966 lots. SHFE total lead inventory increased by 2,718 to 49,504 lots. Social inventory increased by 2,200 to 47,500 tons. LME lead inventory decreased by 10,700 to 253,425 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 52.40%, a decrease of 2.50% [7] Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, Recycled Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume, production, inventory, and processing fees of lead concentrate are presented in the data. The profit of imported and domestic lead concentrates is also shown [24][25] - **Primary Lead**: Some smelters in Jiangxi, Guangxi, and Shandong are under maintenance. The weekly production and operating rate of primary lead are provided in the historical data [6][26] - **Recycled Lead**: Recycled lead smelters are in a loss - making situation, with a loss of about 600 yuan/ton. Due to tight raw material supply and losses, most recycled lead smelters reduce production through maintenance, and the weekly production has further decreased [6] - **Waste Battery**: The supply of waste batteries is tight during the consumption low - season, and the price is firm [6] Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Battery, End - User) - **Lead - Acid Battery**: The battery market has entered the consumption low - season, with continuous accumulation of finished - product inventory and pressure on the downstream operating rate. It is expected that the low - season consumption will last throughout May, and there may be a possibility of a mid - year sales rush in June [6] - **End - User**: Data on the production of automobiles, motorcycles, and the actual consumption of lead are presented, reflecting the demand situation of the end - user market [33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Weak" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, demand is significantly weak, and prices are expected to run weakly. In the medium - term, lead prices will be under pressure in the second quarter, but the downside space is not expected to be large. It is advisable to adopt a strategy of decreasing high - points in range operations. [7] Summary According to Related Catalogs Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, Position) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of SHFE Lead Main Contract last week was 16,945 yuan, with a weekly increase of 0.30%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 was 1,870 dollars, with a decrease of -1.79%. The night - session closing price of SHFE Lead Main Contract was 16,855 yuan, with a decrease of -0.53%. The LME lead cash - to - three - month spread was -17.91 dollars last Friday, a decrease of 2.7 dollars compared to the previous week. The near - month to continuous - first contract spread was 5 yuan last Friday, a decrease of 35 yuan compared to the previous week. [8] - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 9,849 tons, the total SHFE lead inventory decreased by 11,406 tons, the social inventory decreased by 16,700 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 7,550 tons. The LME lead cancellation warrant ratio was 57.45%, an increase of 14.32% compared to the previous week. [8] - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of SHFE Lead Main Contract last week was 37,979 lots, an increase of 20,126 lots compared to the previous week. The position was 38,733 lots, an increase of 12,312 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 2,178 lots, a decrease of 154 lots, and the position was 148,527 lots, a decrease of 2,971 lots. [8] Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, Recycled Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume of lead concentrate, the production of Chinese lead concentrate, and the import volume of silver ore sand and its concentrates are presented in the historical data from 2021 - 2025. The inventory of lead concentrate in Lianyungang, the operating rate of lead concentrate, the domestic and imported lead concentrate treatment charges (TC), and the profit of lead concentrate are also shown. [24][25] - **Primary Lead**: The production of primary lead has increased due to the end of maintenance at a smelter in Henan. The historical production and weekly operating rate data from 2021 - 2025 are provided. [7][26] - **Recycled Lead**: There are significant losses in recycled lead production, and the output has continued to decline marginally. Due to the low output of waste batteries in the off - season and tight raw material supply, the raw material inventory is low. Recently, the production reduction area has expanded, and smelters in many places such as Anhui and Jiangxi have reduced their operations. [7] Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Battery, End - User) - **Lead - Acid Battery**: Consumption is gradually transitioning to the off - season. The inventory of end - user dealers' batteries is at a seasonal high, and restocking is generally restricted, leading to a seasonal increase in the finished - product inventory of battery enterprises. The export volume, operating rate, and inventory days of lead - acid batteries from 2021 - 2025 are presented. [7][32] - **End - User**: The production of automobiles and motorcycles from 2021 - 2025 is shown, and the actual consumption of lead is also presented. [34]