Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength analysis of lead is neutral, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,300 yuan/ton [3] Core Viewpoints - Domestic lead supply hovers at a low level, and consumption has an improvement expectation, so the price is expected to be supported. The third - quarter supply - demand contradiction of lead will gradually emerge, forming a bottom support for the price. It is recommended to buy on dips, and there are still opportunities for cash - and - carry arbitrage in Shanghai lead [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction Volume, Open Interest) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract last week was 16,735 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.30%; the closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,775 yuan, with a night - session increase of 0.24%. The closing price of LmeS - lead 3 last week was 1,977.5 dollars, with a weekly decline of 2.13%. The LME lead spread, Shanghai 1 lead spot spread, and the spread between recycled lead and primary lead all changed. The contango structure of Shanghai lead is narrowing [7] - **Inventory**: SHFE lead warehouse receipts decreased by 11 tons compared with the previous week, the total SHFE lead inventory increased by 29 tons, the social inventory increased by 1,600 tons, and the LME lead inventory increased by 9,050 tons. The cancellation ratio of LME lead was 26.84%, an increase of 0.02% compared with the previous week [7] - **Transaction Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE lead main contract last Friday was 47,634 lots, an increase of 871 lots compared with the previous week; the open interest was 76,338 lots, an increase of 3,011 lots compared with the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - lead 3 was 8,929 lots, an increase of 3,574 lots; the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [7] Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Recycled Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The domestic lead concentrate production, import volume, and consumption volume are presented in the historical data. The import TC of lead concentrate is - 60 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic processing fee is 500 yuan/ton, both at historical lows. The lead concentrate production and import volume in 2021 - 2025 are shown in the charts, and the inventory in Lianyungang also has historical data [28][29] - **Primary Lead**: Some smelting enterprises in Henan are under continuous maintenance, which will affect the production of primary lead. The historical production and weekly operating rate data of primary lead from 2021 - 2025 are provided [6][35][36] - **Recycled Lead**: The recycled lead smelting profit is in a large loss. Smelting plants in Anhui, Guizhou and other regions have reduced production or controlled output. The historical production, operating rate, raw material inventory, cost, and profit - loss data of recycled lead from 2021 - 2025 are shown [6][34] - **Primary Lead By - products**: The price of 1 silver and the price of 98% sulfuric acid in East China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, as well as the historical production data of silver by - products [40] Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises is expected to recover. At the end of the month, some battery enterprises conduct inventory checks, and the operating rate is slightly under pressure. However, with the approaching of the consumption peak season in August, there is an expectation of improved consumption, and enterprises may increase raw material inventory on dips. The historical data of lead - acid battery operating rate, finished product inventory days of enterprises and dealers, and export volume from 2021 - 2025 are provided [6][51] - **End - Users**: The actual consumption volume of lead from 2021 - 2025 is presented, as well as the monthly production data of automobiles and motorcycles [53] Import and Export - The net import volume, import volume, and export volume of refined lead from 2021 - 2025 are shown, as well as the historical data of lead ingot import profit and loss [48]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The lead industry is rated as having a "strong" outlook, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,300 yuan/ton [3] Core Viewpoint - The supply-demand contradiction in the lead market will gradually emerge, supporting a strong price trend. The third quarter is expected to see significant supply-demand contradictions, and it is recommended to buy on dips. There are also opportunities for positive spreads in the Shanghai lead futures market [6] Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction Volume, Open Interest) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 16,820 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.49%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,980 yuan/ton, with a night session increase of 0.95%. The LME lead 3-month contract was at 2,063, with a weekly increase of 2.28%. The LME lead cash-to-3-month spread increased by 9.42 to -24.2 [7] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 7,183 to 60,084 tons, and the total Shanghai lead inventory increased by 7,186 to 62,335 tons. The social inventory increased by 7,900 to 69,000 tons. The LME lead inventory increased by 19,025 to 268,400 tons, and the注销仓单 ratio increased by 6.09% to 27.93% [7] - **Transaction Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 20,173 to 32,288 lots, and the open interest decreased by 2,898 to 50,581 lots. The trading volume of the LME lead 3-month contract increased by 3,535 to 9,912 lots, and the open interest decreased by 10,583 to 136,098 lots [7] 2. Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Recycled Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: Domestic lead smelting has been continuously reducing production, and the lead concentrate processing fee has been continuously weakening. The spot import TC of lead concentrate is -55 US dollars/ton, and the domestic processing fee is 500 yuan/ton, both at historical lows. Some smelting enterprises in Henan are under continuous maintenance, and some smelters in Henan, Inner Mongolia, and Liaoning will enter the annual maintenance period in August [6] - **Primary and Recycled Lead**: The production of primary lead has decreased, and recycled lead has been in continuous losses. The loss of recycled lead has widened, forcing smelters to cut production. The price of waste battery recycling is relatively firm, and recycled smelters are facing greater production pressure [6] 3. Lead Demand (Lead-Acid Batteries, End-Users) - **Lead-Acid Batteries**: The operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises has risen to a relatively high level in the same period of history. The hot weather in many parts of the country has increased the replacement demand for lead-acid batteries, driving the continuous increase in the operating rate of enterprises. Although downstream enterprises have not carried out a large amount of raw material replenishment, with the continuous improvement of terminal consumption, enterprises may enter the replenishment cycle [6] - **End-Users**: The actual consumption of lead has shown an upward trend, and the production of automobiles and motorcycles has also increased, indicating that the demand for lead in the end-user market is relatively strong [48]

Report Title - Lead Weekly Report, dated May 19, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated around 17,000 yuan/ton. Macroscopically, the unexpected reduction of Sino-US tariffs and the cooling inflation and economic slowdown in the US increased the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, improving market risk appetite, and the lead price followed the non-ferrous sector to run strongly. Fundamentally, primary lead smelters had both production cuts and restarts, with supply mainly recovering. In the off-season of consumption, the supply of waste batteries did not improve significantly, the procurement cost of recyclers increased, and they were reluctant to sell at low prices. Some previously减产 secondary lead smelters in Guangxi and Jiangsu restarted production, but under the background of raw material shortage and poor profits, smelters mostly operated at low loads, and the supply did not recover significantly. However, after the lead price rebounded, the profits of enterprises were repaired, and the expectation of a further expansion of production cuts weakened. On the consumption side, lead-acid batteries remained in the seasonal off-season, mostly digesting inventory and mainly making rigid purchases. Overall, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, and the macro sentiment weakened marginally. Currently, the cost side supports the lead price, but consumption remains in the off-season. The rebound of the lead price repairs the profits of secondary lead smelters, the expectation of an expansion of production cuts weakens, and the pressure of inventory accumulation increases, suppressing the lead price trend. In the short term, long and short factors are intertwined, the lead price trend is stalemated, and it maintains a high-level consolidation operation [3][6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From May 9th to May 16th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,805 yuan/ton to 16,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,985.5 US dollars/ton to 2,006 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20.5 US dollars/ton; the Shanghai-London ratio decreased from 8.46 to 8.41, a decrease of 0.05; the SHFE inventory increased from 49,504 tons to 55,472 tons, an increase of 5,968 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 253,425 tons to 248,850 tons, a decrease of 4,575 tons; the social inventory increased from 47,500 tons to 56,000 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons; the spot premium decreased from -90 yuan/ton to -130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market Review - Last week, the main PB2506 contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated horizontally around 17,000 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 16,870 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.39%. On Friday night, it fluctuated narrowly. The concern about the US economic recession eased, the pressure on risk assets weakened, and LME lead continued to rebound, but the rebound pace slowed down near 2,000 US dollars/ton, and finally closed at 2,006 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.03%. In the spot market, as of May 16th, the price of Chihong lead in the Shanghai market was 16,935 - 16,960 yuan/ton, with a premium of 20 - 30 yuan/ton over the SHFE 2506 contract; the price of Honglu lead was 16,900 - 16,930 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract; the price of Jiangtong lead in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was reported at 16,900 - 16,930 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract. Sellers sold goods according to the market, a few enterprises were reluctant to sell at low prices, and the quotation changed from a discount to a premium. The ex-factory price of electrolytic lead smelters' factory-picked goods remained at a discount of 50 yuan/ton to a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the SMM 1 lead average price, and the secondary refined lead was quoted at a discount of 120 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for ex-factory. Downstream enterprises mainly made rigid purchases and preferred large-discount goods with low prices [5] 3. Industry News - As of the week of May 16th, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 650 yuan/metal ton and -30 US dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining flat compared to the previous week [8] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai-London ratio, SHFE and LME inventory situations, 1 lead premium and discount situations, LME lead premium and discount situations, primary lead and secondary refined lead price differences, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profit situations, lead ore processing fees, primary lead production, secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss situations [10][11][15][16][18][21][22][24][25]