1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the lead price will remain volatile overall. Considering the low inventory and the compressed profit of secondary lead, a strategy of buying on dips can be adopted. Attention should also be paid to the term positive spread arbitrage due to the continuous premium of the spot [7]. - Primary lead smelters are under maintenance, leading to pressured primary lead production, while the output of secondary lead is increasing. On the demand side, the purchasing willingness is weak [7]. - Lead - acid battery enterprises are gradually resuming production, but battery consumption is weak, and the finished - product inventory of batteries continues to increase [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) 3.1.1 Price and Spread - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract last week was 17,355 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.94%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,420 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.37%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 1,970, with a weekly decline of 1.20% [8]. - The LME lead premium changed from - 37.81 to - 46.54, a decrease of 8.73; the bonded area lead premium remained unchanged at 100; the Shanghai 1 lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0; the spread between secondary lead and primary lead changed from - 50 to - 125, a decrease of 75 [8]. - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract changed from - 15 to - 40.90, a decrease of 25.90 [8]. 3.1.2 Inventory - The total lead inventory in five regions increased this week, but the absolute inventory is at a historically low level. The inventory of Shanghai lead warehouse receipts increased by 2,724 to 16,188; the total inventory of Shanghai lead increased by 2,107 to 30,111; the social inventory increased by 600 to 19,600; the LME lead inventory decreased by 16,600 to 222,725, and the注销仓单 ratio decreased by 5.06% to 27.04% [3][8]. 3.1.3 Transaction and Position - The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead contract last Friday was 58,684 lots, an increase of 1,799 compared with the previous week; the position was 42,928 lots, a decrease of 8,072 compared with the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 last Friday was 6,649 lots, an increase of 2241 compared with the previous week [8]. 3.2 Supply Aspects (Primary Lead, Secondary Lead, Lead Concentrate) 3.2.1 Lead Concentrate - The import volume, production volume, actual consumption volume, and inventory of lead concentrate are presented in the historical data charts, but no specific latest data is summarized here. The import TC of lead concentrate is in US dollars per dry ton, and the domestic TC is in yuan per ton [29][30]. - The profit of imported lead concentrate and domestic lead concentrate is also presented in the historical data charts [31]. 3.2.2 Primary Lead - The production of primary lead is under pressure. Primary lead smelters in Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hunan and other places are under continuous maintenance, affecting the supply of primary lead. The weekly production and operating rate data of primary lead are presented in the historical data charts [7][34]. 3.2.3 Secondary Lead - The profit of secondary lead enterprises is compressed, but the output has increased as heavy - pollution weather warnings have been lifted in Henan, Anhui and other places. However, with the weakening of consumption, the circulation of waste batteries is tight, and the raw material arrival volume is low this week [7]. - The production, operating rate, raw material inventory, cost, profit and loss data of secondary lead are presented in the historical data charts [34][39][40]. 3.3 Demand Aspects (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) 3.3.1 Lead - Acid Batteries - Lead - acid battery enterprises are gradually resuming production, but battery consumption is weak, and the finished - product inventory of batteries continues to increase. The operating rate, finished - product inventory days, and export volume data of lead - acid batteries are presented in the historical data charts [7][45]. 3.3.2 End - Users - The actual consumption volume of lead and the production volume data of automobiles and motorcycles are presented in the historical data charts, reflecting the consumption situation of end - users [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [6] - Option: Sell wide straddle [7] Core Viewpoints - At the end of the year, the supply-demand weakness of lead products is more obvious. Driven by the overall rise of the non-ferrous sector, the demand in the off-season is even weaker. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,800 in January 2026 [6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Raw Material End - In December, the lead concentrate market continued the pattern of loose supply abroad and tight supply at home. The output of domestic lead concentrates was about 141,000 metal tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.5%. The import volume in November was 123,000 physical tons, a year-on-year increase of 15%. The cumulative import for the whole year exceeded 1.35 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The processing fees continued to decline, and the profits of smelters were further compressed [1] - Due to the seasonal increase in the scrap volume at the end of the year, the recycling volume of waste batteries increased by about 8% month-on-month, but the tax-inclusive price remained firm at 9,950 yuan/ton. The loss of secondary lead enterprises narrowed to -350 yuan/ton, but the procurement was still cautious [1] Primary Lead Production and Import-Export - In December, the operating capacity of primary lead first decreased and then increased. SMM estimated that the output of electrolytic lead in December was 275,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6,000 tons. The cumulative output for the whole year was about 3.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [2] - In December, the import window of lead ingots continued to open, with about 15,000 tons flowing in from bonded area inventories. Exports remained sluggish, with only a small number of long-term orders to Southeast Asia being executed. The net import for the whole month was 13,000 tons, marking the third consecutive month of net imports [2] Secondary Lead Production and Import-Export - In December 2025, the secondary lead sector continued the cycle of losses leading to production cuts. SMM predicted that the output of secondary refined lead in December was only 112,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15,000 tons, and a year-on-year decrease for six consecutive months. The cumulative output for the whole year was about 1.45 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9% [3] - Due to intensified domestic losses, smelters increased the import of crude lead to reduce costs. The export of secondary alloy ingots was affected by anti-dumping duties in Southeast Asia, with only 4,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 20%. The export of secondary lead-related products showed negative growth for the first time in the whole year [3] Consumption End - In December, the lead-acid battery market was even weaker in the off-season. The export of lead batteries in December was 17.5 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 8% and a year-on-year decrease of 12%. The cumulative export for the whole year was about 215 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%, the first annual negative growth since 2015 [4] - The average price of 48V12Ah batteries in December was 268 yuan/group, a month-on-month decrease of 2%. Battery manufacturers generally adopted a strategy of reducing prices to maintain sales volume, but still could not offset the shrinking demand, and the finished product inventory rose to 45 days, the highest level in the same period in the past three years [4] Inventory End - In December, the inventory trends at home and abroad continued to diverge. As of December 27, the lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 32,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the end of November, a decrease of 16%. The LME inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 261,000 tons at the end of the month, a month-on-month increase of 11,000 tons [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,800 in January 2026 [6][7] - Option: Sell wide straddle [7] - Basis Strategy: It is recommended to continue holding mainstream deliverable products and sell far-month contracts, and pay attention to the inventory accumulation rhythm after the festival and the resumption of production progress of secondary lead [9]

Report Overview - Report Title: Lead Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Analyst: Jixianfei, Chief Analyst of Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Date: January 4, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate, but considering the low inventory, a strategy of buying on dips can be adopted. Attention should also be paid to the positive spread arbitrage between futures contracts [6]. - The supply of primary lead is affected by smelter maintenance, and the supply of recycled lead is restricted by raw material shortages. The demand side is weakening marginally, and the lead price is expected to maintain a volatile trend [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Trading Aspect - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of SHFE Lead Main Contract last week was 17,355 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.14%. The closing price of LmeS-Lead 3 was 1,946.5 dollars/ton, with a decline of 2.65%. The LME lead premium decreased by 8.73 dollars/ton, and the spread between recycled lead and primary lead decreased by 75 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of lead in five regions decreased this week, and the absolute inventory is at a historically low level. The SHFE lead inventory and LME lead inventory also showed corresponding changes [3][7]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE Lead Main Contract increased by 19,189 lots, and the open interest decreased by 10,146 lots. The trading volume of LmeS-Lead 3 increased by 602 lots, and the open interest increased by 6,194 lots [7]. 2. Lead Supply - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume, production, consumption, and inventory of lead concentrate showed different trends in different years. The profit of imported and domestic lead concentrates also changed over time [31][32]. - **Primary and Recycled Lead**: The production of primary lead and recycled lead showed different trends in different years. The production of recycled lead was restricted by the tight supply of waste batteries [35][36]. 3. Lead Demand - **Lead - Acid Battery**: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises decreased, and the finished - product inventory days of enterprises and dealers increased. The export volume of batteries also showed different trends in different years [49]. - **Terminal Consumption**: The actual consumption of lead and the production of automobiles and motorcycles showed different trends in different years [51].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the health concerns related to employees at Jiangxi Yuehai New Energy Co., Ltd., where abnormal lead levels were detected in the blood of several workers, prompting an investigation and health assessments by local authorities [3][6]. Group 1: Company Overview - Jiangxi Yuehai New Energy Co., Ltd. is primarily engaged in the production, processing, and sales of new structural sealed lead-acid batteries [6]. - The company is located in the sulfur-phosphorus chemical base of Guixi City, Jiangxi Province [6]. Group 2: Health Concerns - Reports indicate that some employees had blood lead levels as high as 700 μg/L, significantly exceeding the normal reference value of 0-200 μg/L [6]. - Employees have expressed concerns about high dust levels in the workplace, with only 15 standard KN95 masks provided monthly [6]. Group 3: Response and Investigation - In response to the media reports, the Guixi Economic and Technological Development Zone Management Committee established a task force to conduct a comprehensive investigation [3]. - The task force organized health check-ups for all employees and implemented dual verification for sample testing, while an expert group assessed the production environment [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is characterized by an increase in recycled lead production and cautious demand, with prices expected to remain volatile. The strength - weakness analysis is neutral, and the price range is 16,900 - 17,400 yuan/ton. The total lead inventory in five regions has decreased, and the absolute inventory is at a historically low level for the same period [3][4]. - On the supply side, primary lead production is increasing as smelters resume from maintenance, and the spot import processing fee for 60% grade lead concentrate remains low. Recycled lead production is also expected to rise due to high profits and the resumption of production by some enterprises after routine maintenance [4]. - On the consumption side, large lead - acid battery enterprises are increasing production to meet year - end targets, but the market sentiment has become cautious due to the anti - dumping tax on Chinese automotive starting lead - acid batteries by an overseas cooperation committee. The domestic lead inventory in five regions has decreased on a weekly basis, and the current absolute inventory level is at a historically low level for the same period [7]. - In terms of trading strategies, for the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to operate within the range as lead prices are expected to remain volatile, and new long - position entrants should be cautious and pay attention to the profit changes of recycled lead. For the spread strategy, as domestic lead inventory continues to decline, attention can be paid to the term positive spread arbitrage opportunities [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 17,125 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.95%, and the night - session closing price was 17,035 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.53%. The LME lead 3 - month contract was at 1,983.5 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.27%. The LME lead spread, bonded area lead premium, and Shanghai 1 lead spot spread remained relatively stable. The spread between recycled lead and primary lead increased from - 50 to - 25 yuan/ton [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last Friday was 29,694 lots, a decrease of 14,814 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 33,768 lots, a decrease of 11,176 lots. The trading volume of the LME S - lead 3 contract was 6,134 lots, a decrease of 512 lots, and the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [8]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 616 to 16,694 lots, the SHFE total lead inventory decreased by 2,508 to 32,227 lots, and the social inventory decreased by 3,100 tons. The LME lead inventory decreased by 8,800 tons, and the注销仓单 ratio decreased by 2.44% to 46.52% [8]. 3.2 Lead Supply - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume, consumption, and production of lead concentrate have shown certain trends over the years. The profit of imported and domestic lead concentrates, as well as the import and domestic treatment charges (TC), have also changed. The lead concentrate operating rate has fluctuated [30][31]. - **Primary and Recycled Lead**: Primary lead production is increasing as smelters resume from maintenance. Recycled lead production is expected to rise due to high profits and the resumption of production by some enterprises after routine maintenance. The production and operating rates of primary lead, recycled lead, and their combined production have shown different trends over time [4][34][35]. - **Waste Batteries and Recycled Lead**: The raw material inventory of recycled lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost and profit of recycled lead have all changed over time. The net import of refined lead, import and export volume of lead ingots, and import profit and loss have also shown corresponding trends [39][40][43]. 3.3 Lead Demand - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises, the finished product inventory days of battery enterprises and dealers, and the export volume of batteries have all changed over time [47]. - **End - Use Consumption**: The actual consumption of lead, as well as the monthly production volume of automobiles and motorcycles, have shown different trends over the years [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is currently in a state where primary lead smelters are in a concentrated maintenance phase, while the profit of secondary lead has expanded and production has increased rapidly. At the consumer end, large lead - acid battery enterprises are ramping up production at the end of the year, which is expected to continue to support lead prices. The lead price is expected to be volatile and bullish, with a price range of 17,150 - 17,500 yuan/ton, and the overall strength analysis is neutral. The total inventory of lead in five regions has decreased, and the absolute inventory is at a historically low level for the same period. [3][7] - In terms of trading strategies, for the unilateral strategy, it is recommended that existing long positions be retained, while new long positions should be entered with caution, and attention should be paid to the profit changes of secondary lead. For the spread strategy, as the domestic lead inventory continues to decline, attention can be paid to the term positive arbitrage opportunities. [7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, and Position - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE lead last week was 17,290 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.17%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,305 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.09%; the closing price of LmeS - lead3 last week was 2,005 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.21% [8]. - **Spread**: The LME lead basis decreased by 7.21 to - 49.15; the bonded area lead premium remained unchanged at 95; the Shanghai 1 lead spot basis increased by 5 to 25; the secondary lead - primary lead spread decreased by 50 to - 50. The spread between the near - month and the first - consecutive contract increased by 25 to - 10 [8]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead warrant inventory decreased by 10,182 to 16,078 tons; the SHFE lead total inventory decreased by 3,064 to 34,735 tons; the social inventory decreased by 11,400 to 23,600 tons; the LME lead inventory decreased by 19,625 to 243,550 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased by 3.80% to 48.95% [8]. - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of SHFE lead last Friday was 44,508 lots, an increase of 1,089 compared with the previous week, and the position was 44,944 lots, a decrease of 2,978 compared with the previous week; the trading volume of LmeS - lead3 last Friday was 6,646 lots, an increase of 1,366 compared with the previous week, and the position was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 compared with the previous week [8]. 3.2 Lead Supply: Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, and Secondary Lead - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume, inventory, actual consumption, and production volume of lead concentrate from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the form of charts. The import TC and domestic TC of lead concentrate, as well as the profit of imported and domestic lead concentrates, are also shown. The lead concentrate operating rate from 2021 to 2025 is also provided [29][30][31]. - **Primary Lead and Secondary Lead**: The production volume and weekly operating rate of primary lead from 2021 to 2025 are presented. The production volume of primary lead + secondary lead and secondary lead, as well as the operating rate of secondary lead from 2021 to 2025 are also shown. The by - product output of silver and the price of 1 silver are presented, along with the price of 98% sulfuric acid in East China [33][34][36]. - **Waste Batteries and Secondary Lead**: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises from 2021 to 2025 is presented. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost and profit of secondary lead from 2021 to 2025 are also shown. The net import of refined lead, the monthly import volume of Chinese lead ingots, the import profit and loss, and the export volume of lead ingots from 2021 to 2025 are presented [39][40][43]. 3.3 Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Batteries and Terminal - **Batteries**: The operating rate of lead batteries from 2021 to 2025 is presented, along with the monthly finished - product inventory days of lead - battery enterprises and dealers. The export volume of batteries from 2021 to 2025 is also shown [47]. - **Consumption and Terminal**: The actual consumption volume of lead from 2021 to 2025 is presented, along with the monthly production volume of automobiles and motorcycles from 2021 to 2025 [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is rated as neutral, with a price range of 16,900 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3] - Supply logic has marginally improved, which will support prices. The production of primary lead is under pressure, and secondary lead enterprises are in a continuous loss state. Some regions are stockpiling lead concentrates for winter, intensifying the raw material shortage. The consumption of lead-acid batteries has recovered, and the finished product inventory of some battery factories has decreased [6] - From a supply - demand perspective, domestic lead inventories have slightly increased. The long - position to inventory ratio of the SHFE lead contract for October is relatively high, and the spot discount has narrowed. Overall, the supply shortage of lead concentrates and the marginal improvement in consumption, along with the enhanced expectation of Fed rate cuts and domestic favorable policies, will support the price in the short - term. In unilateral trading, existing long positions should be held, and new long positions should wait for a good entry point. There are still opportunities for positive spreads in SHFE lead term contracts [6] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspects: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction Volume, Open Interest - **Price**: The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 17,040 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.83%. The closing price of the LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 1988, with a weekly increase of 0.00% [7] - **Spread**: The LME lead cash - to - 3 - month spread increased by 2.32 to - 41.16. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract increased by 30 to - 40 [7] - **Inventory**: The total lead inventory in five regions slightly increased from 66,100 tons on September 4th to 67,000 tons on September 11th. The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 5395 to 59,485 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 18,625 to 229,575 tons [6][7] - **Transaction Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 63,429 lots, an increase of 29,437 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 52,188 lots, an increase of 2762 lots from the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 6480 lots, an increase of 870 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6194 lots from the previous week [7] 3.2 Lead Supply: Lead Concentrates, Scrap Batteries, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead - **Lead Concentrates**: The spot import TC of 60% lead concentrate remained at - 90 dollars/ton this week. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 50 to 350 yuan/ton. Some regions are stockpiling lead concentrates for winter, intensifying the raw material shortage [6][7] - **Primary Lead and Secondary Lead**: The production of primary lead is under pressure, with smelters in Henan under continuous maintenance and a smelter in Qinghai about to start maintenance. Secondary lead enterprises have been in a loss state, but the profit situation has started to improve, and some enterprises in Anhui and Hubei have resumed production [6] - **Scrap Batteries and Secondary Lead**: The price of scrap batteries has been under continuous pressure, and the smelting profit situation has started to improve. The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises shows a certain trend [38] 3.3 Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The consumption peak season of lead - acid batteries fell short of expectations, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises only increased seasonally. The consumption of lead - acid batteries has recovered, the finished product inventory of some battery factories has decreased, and the operating rate of large - scale lead - acid battery enterprises has increased seasonally [6] - **End - Users**: The actual consumption of lead shows a certain trend, and the production of automobiles and motorcycles also presents corresponding data trends [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength analysis of lead is neutral, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,300 yuan/ton [3] Core Viewpoints - Domestic lead supply hovers at a low level, and consumption has an improvement expectation, so the price is expected to be supported. The third - quarter supply - demand contradiction of lead will gradually emerge, forming a bottom support for the price. It is recommended to buy on dips, and there are still opportunities for cash - and - carry arbitrage in Shanghai lead [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction Volume, Open Interest) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract last week was 16,735 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.30%; the closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,775 yuan, with a night - session increase of 0.24%. The closing price of LmeS - lead 3 last week was 1,977.5 dollars, with a weekly decline of 2.13%. The LME lead spread, Shanghai 1 lead spot spread, and the spread between recycled lead and primary lead all changed. The contango structure of Shanghai lead is narrowing [7] - **Inventory**: SHFE lead warehouse receipts decreased by 11 tons compared with the previous week, the total SHFE lead inventory increased by 29 tons, the social inventory increased by 1,600 tons, and the LME lead inventory increased by 9,050 tons. The cancellation ratio of LME lead was 26.84%, an increase of 0.02% compared with the previous week [7] - **Transaction Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE lead main contract last Friday was 47,634 lots, an increase of 871 lots compared with the previous week; the open interest was 76,338 lots, an increase of 3,011 lots compared with the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - lead 3 was 8,929 lots, an increase of 3,574 lots; the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [7] Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Recycled Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The domestic lead concentrate production, import volume, and consumption volume are presented in the historical data. The import TC of lead concentrate is - 60 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic processing fee is 500 yuan/ton, both at historical lows. The lead concentrate production and import volume in 2021 - 2025 are shown in the charts, and the inventory in Lianyungang also has historical data [28][29] - **Primary Lead**: Some smelting enterprises in Henan are under continuous maintenance, which will affect the production of primary lead. The historical production and weekly operating rate data of primary lead from 2021 - 2025 are provided [6][35][36] - **Recycled Lead**: The recycled lead smelting profit is in a large loss. Smelting plants in Anhui, Guizhou and other regions have reduced production or controlled output. The historical production, operating rate, raw material inventory, cost, and profit - loss data of recycled lead from 2021 - 2025 are shown [6][34] - **Primary Lead By - products**: The price of 1 silver and the price of 98% sulfuric acid in East China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, as well as the historical production data of silver by - products [40] Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises is expected to recover. At the end of the month, some battery enterprises conduct inventory checks, and the operating rate is slightly under pressure. However, with the approaching of the consumption peak season in August, there is an expectation of improved consumption, and enterprises may increase raw material inventory on dips. The historical data of lead - acid battery operating rate, finished product inventory days of enterprises and dealers, and export volume from 2021 - 2025 are provided [6][51] - **End - Users**: The actual consumption volume of lead from 2021 - 2025 is presented, as well as the monthly production data of automobiles and motorcycles [53] Import and Export - The net import volume, import volume, and export volume of refined lead from 2021 - 2025 are shown, as well as the historical data of lead ingot import profit and loss [48]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The lead industry is rated as having a "strong" outlook, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,300 yuan/ton [3] Core Viewpoint - The supply-demand contradiction in the lead market will gradually emerge, supporting a strong price trend. The third quarter is expected to see significant supply-demand contradictions, and it is recommended to buy on dips. There are also opportunities for positive spreads in the Shanghai lead futures market [6] Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction Volume, Open Interest) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 16,820 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.49%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,980 yuan/ton, with a night session increase of 0.95%. The LME lead 3-month contract was at 2,063, with a weekly increase of 2.28%. The LME lead cash-to-3-month spread increased by 9.42 to -24.2 [7] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 7,183 to 60,084 tons, and the total Shanghai lead inventory increased by 7,186 to 62,335 tons. The social inventory increased by 7,900 to 69,000 tons. The LME lead inventory increased by 19,025 to 268,400 tons, and the注销仓单 ratio increased by 6.09% to 27.93% [7] - **Transaction Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 20,173 to 32,288 lots, and the open interest decreased by 2,898 to 50,581 lots. The trading volume of the LME lead 3-month contract increased by 3,535 to 9,912 lots, and the open interest decreased by 10,583 to 136,098 lots [7] 2. Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Recycled Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: Domestic lead smelting has been continuously reducing production, and the lead concentrate processing fee has been continuously weakening. The spot import TC of lead concentrate is -55 US dollars/ton, and the domestic processing fee is 500 yuan/ton, both at historical lows. Some smelting enterprises in Henan are under continuous maintenance, and some smelters in Henan, Inner Mongolia, and Liaoning will enter the annual maintenance period in August [6] - **Primary and Recycled Lead**: The production of primary lead has decreased, and recycled lead has been in continuous losses. The loss of recycled lead has widened, forcing smelters to cut production. The price of waste battery recycling is relatively firm, and recycled smelters are facing greater production pressure [6] 3. Lead Demand (Lead-Acid Batteries, End-Users) - **Lead-Acid Batteries**: The operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises has risen to a relatively high level in the same period of history. The hot weather in many parts of the country has increased the replacement demand for lead-acid batteries, driving the continuous increase in the operating rate of enterprises. Although downstream enterprises have not carried out a large amount of raw material replenishment, with the continuous improvement of terminal consumption, enterprises may enter the replenishment cycle [6] - **End-Users**: The actual consumption of lead has shown an upward trend, and the production of automobiles and motorcycles has also increased, indicating that the demand for lead in the end-user market is relatively strong [48]

Report Title - Lead Weekly Report, dated May 19, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated around 17,000 yuan/ton. Macroscopically, the unexpected reduction of Sino-US tariffs and the cooling inflation and economic slowdown in the US increased the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, improving market risk appetite, and the lead price followed the non-ferrous sector to run strongly. Fundamentally, primary lead smelters had both production cuts and restarts, with supply mainly recovering. In the off-season of consumption, the supply of waste batteries did not improve significantly, the procurement cost of recyclers increased, and they were reluctant to sell at low prices. Some previously减产 secondary lead smelters in Guangxi and Jiangsu restarted production, but under the background of raw material shortage and poor profits, smelters mostly operated at low loads, and the supply did not recover significantly. However, after the lead price rebounded, the profits of enterprises were repaired, and the expectation of a further expansion of production cuts weakened. On the consumption side, lead-acid batteries remained in the seasonal off-season, mostly digesting inventory and mainly making rigid purchases. Overall, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, and the macro sentiment weakened marginally. Currently, the cost side supports the lead price, but consumption remains in the off-season. The rebound of the lead price repairs the profits of secondary lead smelters, the expectation of an expansion of production cuts weakens, and the pressure of inventory accumulation increases, suppressing the lead price trend. In the short term, long and short factors are intertwined, the lead price trend is stalemated, and it maintains a high-level consolidation operation [3][6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From May 9th to May 16th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,805 yuan/ton to 16,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,985.5 US dollars/ton to 2,006 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20.5 US dollars/ton; the Shanghai-London ratio decreased from 8.46 to 8.41, a decrease of 0.05; the SHFE inventory increased from 49,504 tons to 55,472 tons, an increase of 5,968 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 253,425 tons to 248,850 tons, a decrease of 4,575 tons; the social inventory increased from 47,500 tons to 56,000 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons; the spot premium decreased from -90 yuan/ton to -130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market Review - Last week, the main PB2506 contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated horizontally around 17,000 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 16,870 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.39%. On Friday night, it fluctuated narrowly. The concern about the US economic recession eased, the pressure on risk assets weakened, and LME lead continued to rebound, but the rebound pace slowed down near 2,000 US dollars/ton, and finally closed at 2,006 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.03%. In the spot market, as of May 16th, the price of Chihong lead in the Shanghai market was 16,935 - 16,960 yuan/ton, with a premium of 20 - 30 yuan/ton over the SHFE 2506 contract; the price of Honglu lead was 16,900 - 16,930 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract; the price of Jiangtong lead in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was reported at 16,900 - 16,930 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract. Sellers sold goods according to the market, a few enterprises were reluctant to sell at low prices, and the quotation changed from a discount to a premium. The ex-factory price of electrolytic lead smelters' factory-picked goods remained at a discount of 50 yuan/ton to a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the SMM 1 lead average price, and the secondary refined lead was quoted at a discount of 120 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for ex-factory. Downstream enterprises mainly made rigid purchases and preferred large-discount goods with low prices [5] 3. Industry News - As of the week of May 16th, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 650 yuan/metal ton and -30 US dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining flat compared to the previous week [8] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai-London ratio, SHFE and LME inventory situations, 1 lead premium and discount situations, LME lead premium and discount situations, primary lead and secondary refined lead price differences, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profit situations, lead ore processing fees, primary lead production, secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss situations [10][11][15][16][18][21][22][24][25]