铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年08月10日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅：冶炼减产逻辑逐步显现，价格底部抬升 规模再生铅企业持续亏损 ◆ 国内铅供应压力逐步显现，但铅酸蓄电池消费未见改善，预计价格整体表现震荡。从供 应端看，原生铅产量减少，再生铅持续亏损。铅精矿现货进口TC为-60美元/吨，国产矿 加工费为500元/吨，处于历史低位。国内河南部分冶炼企业持续检修，湖南部分企业因 原料紧张而降低产能利用率，都将影响未来原生铅产量。再生铅亏损约400元/吨左右， 较上周亏损收窄，但由于再生亏损时间较长，宁夏等地区再生铅企业将开始减产。 ◆ 铅酸蓄电池消费表现一般，但市场依然对后期消费有所期待。当前铅酸蓄电池消费没有 表现出边际改善，大型电池厂已开始降价向经销商压库存。市场认为后期消费旺季依然 有可能来临，铅酸蓄电池企业开工率 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the lead industry is neutral, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,300 yuan/ton [3] Core Viewpoints - Domestic lead production is under pressure, and with the expectation of the consumption peak season, prices will be supported. The supply of primary lead is decreasing, and secondary lead is in continuous loss. As the consumption peak season approaches, the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises will rise. It is expected that the supply - demand contradiction of lead will gradually emerge in the third quarter, supporting price recovery. It is recommended to buy on dips, and there are still opportunities for cash - futures arbitrage in Shanghai lead [6] Summary by Directory Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai lead main contract last week was 16,955 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.80%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,845 yuan/ton, with a decrease of - 0.65%. The closing price of LmeS - lead 3 last week was 2,037 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.27% [7] - **Spread**: LME lead basis increased by 0.78 dollars/ton compared to the previous week; Shanghai 1 lead spot basis decreased by 15 yuan/ton; the spread between near - month and consecutive - one contracts decreased by 5 yuan/ton [7] - **Inventory**: Shanghai lead warrant inventory decreased by 125 tons compared to the previous week, and the total inventory increased by 919 tons. Social inventory increased by 2,400 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 2,125 tons [7] - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai lead main contract increased by 14,475 lots compared to the previous week, and the position increased by 22,746 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - lead 3 decreased by 4,557 lots, and the position increased by 6,194 lots [7] Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The spot import TC of lead concentrate was - 60 dollars/dry ton, lower than last week's level, and the domestic concentrate processing fee was 500 yuan/ton, at a historical low [6] - **Primary Lead**: Some smelting enterprises in Henan are under continuous maintenance, a smelter in Jiangxi may slightly increase production, and a smelter in Inner Mongolia has resumed normal production, but the supply increase is limited [6] - **Secondary Lead**: The smelting profit of secondary lead is in large losses, with enterprises shutting down and resuming production coexisting, and the supply increase is restricted [6] Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: At the end of the month, some battery enterprises are conducting inventory checks, and the operating rate is slightly under pressure. However, as the consumption peak season approaches in August, the consumption of lead - acid batteries may improve, and the operating rate is likely to rise, with enterprises increasing raw material inventory on dips [6] - **End - Users**: The actual consumption of lead shows certain trends, and the production of related end - user products such as automobiles and motorcycles also has corresponding fluctuations [53]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The lead industry is rated as having a "strong" outlook, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,300 yuan/ton [3] Core Viewpoint - The supply-demand contradiction in the lead market will gradually emerge, supporting a strong price trend. The third quarter is expected to see significant supply-demand contradictions, and it is recommended to buy on dips. There are also opportunities for positive spreads in the Shanghai lead futures market [6] Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction Volume, Open Interest) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 16,820 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.49%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,980 yuan/ton, with a night session increase of 0.95%. The LME lead 3-month contract was at 2,063, with a weekly increase of 2.28%. The LME lead cash-to-3-month spread increased by 9.42 to -24.2 [7] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 7,183 to 60,084 tons, and the total Shanghai lead inventory increased by 7,186 to 62,335 tons. The social inventory increased by 7,900 to 69,000 tons. The LME lead inventory increased by 19,025 to 268,400 tons, and the注销仓单 ratio increased by 6.09% to 27.93% [7] - **Transaction Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 20,173 to 32,288 lots, and the open interest decreased by 2,898 to 50,581 lots. The trading volume of the LME lead 3-month contract increased by 3,535 to 9,912 lots, and the open interest decreased by 10,583 to 136,098 lots [7] 2. Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Recycled Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: Domestic lead smelting has been continuously reducing production, and the lead concentrate processing fee has been continuously weakening. The spot import TC of lead concentrate is -55 US dollars/ton, and the domestic processing fee is 500 yuan/ton, both at historical lows. Some smelting enterprises in Henan are under continuous maintenance, and some smelters in Henan, Inner Mongolia, and Liaoning will enter the annual maintenance period in August [6] - **Primary and Recycled Lead**: The production of primary lead has decreased, and recycled lead has been in continuous losses. The loss of recycled lead has widened, forcing smelters to cut production. The price of waste battery recycling is relatively firm, and recycled smelters are facing greater production pressure [6] 3. Lead Demand (Lead-Acid Batteries, End-Users) - **Lead-Acid Batteries**: The operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises has risen to a relatively high level in the same period of history. The hot weather in many parts of the country has increased the replacement demand for lead-acid batteries, driving the continuous increase in the operating rate of enterprises. Although downstream enterprises have not carried out a large amount of raw material replenishment, with the continuous improvement of terminal consumption, enterprises may enter the replenishment cycle [6] - **End-Users**: The actual consumption of lead has shown an upward trend, and the production of automobiles and motorcycles has also increased, indicating that the demand for lead in the end-user market is relatively strong [48]

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 日期：2025年6月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：偏强 铅：中期偏多，关注消费旺季成色 再生铅亏损程度严重 铅蓄电池后续存旺季预期 -1000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 再生铅盈亏 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 70 80 90 % 铅蓄电池开工率 2021 2022 20 ...

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 日期：2025年6月15日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：中性 铅：短期供需双弱下震荡，中期可偏多思路对待 再生铅亏损程度严重 再生铅开工率偏低 -1000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 再生铅盈亏 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 01 ...

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 日期：2025年5月18日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：中性 铅：供需双弱，底部横盘 再生铅低产维持 铅锭库存累积 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 第 2 页 ◆ 再生铅亏损较为显著，开工率维持偏低位。原生铅方面，山东炼厂进入常规检 修。再生铅方面，废电池供应由于处于消费淡季而紧张，废电池较为挺价。因 而传导至再生铅炼厂亏损较深，据匡算目前亏损在600元/吨附近。原料供应偏 紧叠加亏损，再生铅炼厂大多以检修减产维持，复产的信号仍未释放。 ◆ 消费迈入淡季，铅锭需求空间较为受限。电池端迈入消费淡季，蓄电池企业+终 端经销商成品库存有所累积，下游开工率承压。而周内铅价受宏观因素影响有 阶段性抬升，下游畏高慎采，市场交 ...

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 日期：2025年5月11日 ◆ 短期供需双弱，上方压力较为显著，但是铅价下方空间暂不看深，以区间震荡 对待。一方面，蓄电池企业尤其是大厂依然存在补库空间，价格下跌后备库支 撑，另一方面，二季度废电池供应淡季，在废电池长期偏紧背景下只要需求不 坍塌废电池成本支撑依然较为显著。中长期角度，可以布局低位的买入操作， 后续消费走强有望提供支撑。 再生铅减量 蓄电池开工率下行 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 01-01 01-12 01-21 01-31 02-10 02-19 03-01 03-11 03-21 03-31 04-09 04-19 04-29 05-09 05-20 06-02 06-14 06-25 07-08 07-21 08-02 08-13 08-26 09-08 09-20 10-04 10-15 10-28 11-10 11-22 12-03 12-16 12-29 % 再生铅开工率 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 ...

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 日期：2025年4月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：偏弱 铅：需求偏弱，压制价格上方 再生铅利润显著收缩 -1000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 再生铅盈亏 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 蓄电池库存处于相对偏高位置 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 ...