-200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 现货升贴水 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 第 2 页 铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2026年03月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan F ...

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2026年02月08日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅：供需双弱，缺乏驱动 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：16300-17000元/吨 五地铅总库存增加，但绝对库存处于历史同期低位 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 第 2 页 国内铅现货升水扩大 0 5 10 15 20 25 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-02 02-17 02-28 03-12 03-24 04-06 04-17 04-29 05-14 05-26 06-06 06-18 06-30 07-11 07-23 08-04 08-15 08-27 09-08 09-19 10-07 10-19 10-30 11-1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral, with a price range of 16,900 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market lacks driving forces, and prices are expected to remain volatile. The total inventory of lead in five regions has increased, but the absolute inventory is at a historically low level for the same period. The domestic lead spot has been in a premium state. [3][5] - On the supply side, the production of primary lead is under pressure, and the spot import processing fee for lead concentrates with a grade of 60% continues to decline. However, primary lead smelting enterprises in Jiangxi and other places are gradually resuming production, which is expected to increase the supply of primary lead. In the secondary lead sector, enterprise profits are compressed, and the production of smelters in Anhui, Shandong, Henan and other places is limited. At the same time, secondary lead smelting enterprises in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and other places will have an early holiday, and the overall output of secondary lead is under pressure. [7] - On the consumption side, battery consumption is weak, and the inventory of finished batteries continues to accumulate. Against the background of weak consumption and increasing inventory of new batteries, the Spring Festival holiday of lead - acid battery enterprises will be longer than in previous years, and the holiday time will be earlier. [7] - Regarding trading strategies, in the unilateral strategy, the lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the lead price will generally remain volatile, and short - volatility operations can be considered. In terms of the spread strategy, the domestic lead inventory has increased while the overseas inventory is under pressure. Continuous attention can be paid to the opportunity of long domestic and short overseas arbitrage. [7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Trading Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, and Position - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the main SHFE lead contract last week was 17,095 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.17%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,145 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.29%. The closing price of LmeS - lead 3 last week was 2,016.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.03%. The LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 44.56 dollars/ton last Friday, a decrease of 0.38 dollars/ton compared with the previous Friday. The bonded area lead premium was 95 dollars/ton last Friday, an increase of 5 dollars/ton compared with the previous Friday. The Shanghai 1 lead spot premium was 0 yuan/ton last Friday, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous Friday. The spread between secondary lead and primary lead was - 125 yuan/ton last Friday, an increase of 75 yuan/ton compared with the previous Friday. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was - 60 yuan/ton last Friday, unchanged from the previous Friday. [8] - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead warrant inventory last week was 27,966 tons, an increase of 702 tons compared with the previous week. The total SHFE lead inventory was 29,351 tons, a decrease of 7,693 tons compared with the previous week. The social inventory was 34,500 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons compared with the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 215,175 tons, an increase of 8,825 tons compared with the previous week, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 13.06%, a decrease of 8.11% compared with the previous week. [8] - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of the main SHFE lead contract last Friday was 37,429 lots, a decrease of 83,984 lots compared with the previous week. The position last week was 65,194 lots, a decrease of 17,474 lots compared with the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - lead 3 last Friday was 5,194 lots, a decrease of 5,330 lots compared with the previous week. The position last week was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots compared with the previous week. [8] Lead Supply: Lead Concentrates, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, and Secondary Lead - **Lead Concentrates**: The import volume, actual consumption, and production of lead concentrates have shown fluctuations in previous years. The lead concentrate inventory in Lianyungang has also fluctuated. The import TC and domestic TC of lead concentrates have changed, and the smelting profit of lead concentrates (processing) has also shown different trends over the years. The operating rate of lead concentrate mines has also fluctuated. [25][27][28] - **Primary and Secondary Lead**: The production of primary lead, secondary lead, and the combined production of primary and secondary lead have shown different trends in previous years. The weekly operating rate of primary lead and the operating rate of secondary lead have also fluctuated. The by - product output of silver, the price of 1 silver, and the price of 98% sulfuric acid in East China have also changed over the years. [31][32][33] - **Waste Batteries and Secondary Lead**: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises has fluctuated. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost of secondary lead, and the profit and loss of secondary lead have also changed over the years. [35][36][37] - **Import and Export**: The net import of refined lead, the monthly import volume of lead ingots in China, the import profit and loss of lead, and the export volume of lead ingots have all shown different trends in previous years. [39] Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Batteries and End - Users - **Batteries**: The operating rate of lead - acid batteries has fluctuated over the years. The monthly finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers have also changed. The export volume of batteries has shown different trends in previous years. [43] - **Consumption and End - Users**: The actual consumption of lead has shown different trends in previous years. The monthly output of automobiles and motorcycles has also fluctuated. [45]

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2026年01月18日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：17000-17600元/吨 铅：供需双弱，价格震荡 | 【行情回顾】 | | | | | 【期现价差变化】 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 上周收盘价 | 周涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | 上周五 | 上上周五 | 变 动 | | 沪铅主力 | 17475 | 0 69% . | 17230 | -1 40% . | LME铅升贴水 | -44 18 . | -44 05 . | -0 13 . | | LmeS-铅3 | 2005 5 . | -2 00% . | - | - | 保税区铅溢价 | 90 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the lead price will remain volatile overall. Considering the low inventory and the compressed profit of secondary lead, a strategy of buying on dips can be adopted. Attention should also be paid to the term positive spread arbitrage due to the continuous premium of the spot [7]. - Primary lead smelters are under maintenance, leading to pressured primary lead production, while the output of secondary lead is increasing. On the demand side, the purchasing willingness is weak [7]. - Lead - acid battery enterprises are gradually resuming production, but battery consumption is weak, and the finished - product inventory of batteries continues to increase [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) 3.1.1 Price and Spread - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract last week was 17,355 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.94%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,420 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.37%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 1,970, with a weekly decline of 1.20% [8]. - The LME lead premium changed from - 37.81 to - 46.54, a decrease of 8.73; the bonded area lead premium remained unchanged at 100; the Shanghai 1 lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0; the spread between secondary lead and primary lead changed from - 50 to - 125, a decrease of 75 [8]. - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract changed from - 15 to - 40.90, a decrease of 25.90 [8]. 3.1.2 Inventory - The total lead inventory in five regions increased this week, but the absolute inventory is at a historically low level. The inventory of Shanghai lead warehouse receipts increased by 2,724 to 16,188; the total inventory of Shanghai lead increased by 2,107 to 30,111; the social inventory increased by 600 to 19,600; the LME lead inventory decreased by 16,600 to 222,725, and the注销仓单 ratio decreased by 5.06% to 27.04% [3][8]. 3.1.3 Transaction and Position - The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead contract last Friday was 58,684 lots, an increase of 1,799 compared with the previous week; the position was 42,928 lots, a decrease of 8,072 compared with the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 last Friday was 6,649 lots, an increase of 2241 compared with the previous week [8]. 3.2 Supply Aspects (Primary Lead, Secondary Lead, Lead Concentrate) 3.2.1 Lead Concentrate - The import volume, production volume, actual consumption volume, and inventory of lead concentrate are presented in the historical data charts, but no specific latest data is summarized here. The import TC of lead concentrate is in US dollars per dry ton, and the domestic TC is in yuan per ton [29][30]. - The profit of imported lead concentrate and domestic lead concentrate is also presented in the historical data charts [31]. 3.2.2 Primary Lead - The production of primary lead is under pressure. Primary lead smelters in Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hunan and other places are under continuous maintenance, affecting the supply of primary lead. The weekly production and operating rate data of primary lead are presented in the historical data charts [7][34]. 3.2.3 Secondary Lead - The profit of secondary lead enterprises is compressed, but the output has increased as heavy - pollution weather warnings have been lifted in Henan, Anhui and other places. However, with the weakening of consumption, the circulation of waste batteries is tight, and the raw material arrival volume is low this week [7]. - The production, operating rate, raw material inventory, cost, profit and loss data of secondary lead are presented in the historical data charts [34][39][40]. 3.3 Demand Aspects (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) 3.3.1 Lead - Acid Batteries - Lead - acid battery enterprises are gradually resuming production, but battery consumption is weak, and the finished - product inventory of batteries continues to increase. The operating rate, finished - product inventory days, and export volume data of lead - acid batteries are presented in the historical data charts [7][45]. 3.3.2 End - Users - The actual consumption volume of lead and the production volume data of automobiles and motorcycles are presented in the historical data charts, reflecting the consumption situation of end - users [47].

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅：需求减弱，限制价格上涨 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：17300-17800元/吨 五地铅总库存减少，绝对库存处于历史同期低位 0 5 10 15 20 25 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03-14 03-26 04-08 04-19 05-05 05-16 05-28 06-09 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-25 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-10 09-23 10-09 10-21 11-01 11-13 11-25 12-06 12-18 12-30 万吨 五地总库存 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 国内铅现货升水缩窄至平水 -200 -150 -100 -5 ...

国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年12月21日 铅产业链周度报告 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：16800-17200元/吨 铅：供需双弱，价格震荡 五地铅总库存减少，绝对库存处于历史同期低位 0 5 10 15 20 25 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03-14 03-26 04-08 04-19 05-05 05-16 05-28 06-09 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-25 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-10 09-23 10-09 10-21 11-01 11-13 11-25 12-06 12-18 12-30 万吨 五地总库存 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 国内铅现货升水扩大 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is characterized by an increase in recycled lead production and cautious demand, with prices expected to remain volatile. The strength - weakness analysis is neutral, and the price range is 16,900 - 17,400 yuan/ton. The total lead inventory in five regions has decreased, and the absolute inventory is at a historically low level for the same period [3][4]. - On the supply side, primary lead production is increasing as smelters resume from maintenance, and the spot import processing fee for 60% grade lead concentrate remains low. Recycled lead production is also expected to rise due to high profits and the resumption of production by some enterprises after routine maintenance [4]. - On the consumption side, large lead - acid battery enterprises are increasing production to meet year - end targets, but the market sentiment has become cautious due to the anti - dumping tax on Chinese automotive starting lead - acid batteries by an overseas cooperation committee. The domestic lead inventory in five regions has decreased on a weekly basis, and the current absolute inventory level is at a historically low level for the same period [7]. - In terms of trading strategies, for the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to operate within the range as lead prices are expected to remain volatile, and new long - position entrants should be cautious and pay attention to the profit changes of recycled lead. For the spread strategy, as domestic lead inventory continues to decline, attention can be paid to the term positive spread arbitrage opportunities [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 17,125 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.95%, and the night - session closing price was 17,035 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.53%. The LME lead 3 - month contract was at 1,983.5 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.27%. The LME lead spread, bonded area lead premium, and Shanghai 1 lead spot spread remained relatively stable. The spread between recycled lead and primary lead increased from - 50 to - 25 yuan/ton [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last Friday was 29,694 lots, a decrease of 14,814 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 33,768 lots, a decrease of 11,176 lots. The trading volume of the LME S - lead 3 contract was 6,134 lots, a decrease of 512 lots, and the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [8]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 616 to 16,694 lots, the SHFE total lead inventory decreased by 2,508 to 32,227 lots, and the social inventory decreased by 3,100 tons. The LME lead inventory decreased by 8,800 tons, and the注销仓单 ratio decreased by 2.44% to 46.52% [8]. 3.2 Lead Supply - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume, consumption, and production of lead concentrate have shown certain trends over the years. The profit of imported and domestic lead concentrates, as well as the import and domestic treatment charges (TC), have also changed. The lead concentrate operating rate has fluctuated [30][31]. - **Primary and Recycled Lead**: Primary lead production is increasing as smelters resume from maintenance. Recycled lead production is expected to rise due to high profits and the resumption of production by some enterprises after routine maintenance. The production and operating rates of primary lead, recycled lead, and their combined production have shown different trends over time [4][34][35]. - **Waste Batteries and Recycled Lead**: The raw material inventory of recycled lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost and profit of recycled lead have all changed over time. The net import of refined lead, import and export volume of lead ingots, and import profit and loss have also shown corresponding trends [39][40][43]. 3.3 Lead Demand - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises, the finished product inventory days of battery enterprises and dealers, and the export volume of batteries have all changed over time [47]. - **End - Use Consumption**: The actual consumption of lead, as well as the monthly production volume of automobiles and motorcycles, have shown different trends over the years [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is currently in a state where primary lead smelters are in a concentrated maintenance phase, while the profit of secondary lead has expanded and production has increased rapidly. At the consumer end, large lead - acid battery enterprises are ramping up production at the end of the year, which is expected to continue to support lead prices. The lead price is expected to be volatile and bullish, with a price range of 17,150 - 17,500 yuan/ton, and the overall strength analysis is neutral. The total inventory of lead in five regions has decreased, and the absolute inventory is at a historically low level for the same period. [3][7] - In terms of trading strategies, for the unilateral strategy, it is recommended that existing long positions be retained, while new long positions should be entered with caution, and attention should be paid to the profit changes of secondary lead. For the spread strategy, as the domestic lead inventory continues to decline, attention can be paid to the term positive arbitrage opportunities. [7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, and Position - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE lead last week was 17,290 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.17%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,305 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.09%; the closing price of LmeS - lead3 last week was 2,005 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.21% [8]. - **Spread**: The LME lead basis decreased by 7.21 to - 49.15; the bonded area lead premium remained unchanged at 95; the Shanghai 1 lead spot basis increased by 5 to 25; the secondary lead - primary lead spread decreased by 50 to - 50. The spread between the near - month and the first - consecutive contract increased by 25 to - 10 [8]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead warrant inventory decreased by 10,182 to 16,078 tons; the SHFE lead total inventory decreased by 3,064 to 34,735 tons; the social inventory decreased by 11,400 to 23,600 tons; the LME lead inventory decreased by 19,625 to 243,550 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased by 3.80% to 48.95% [8]. - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of SHFE lead last Friday was 44,508 lots, an increase of 1,089 compared with the previous week, and the position was 44,944 lots, a decrease of 2,978 compared with the previous week; the trading volume of LmeS - lead3 last Friday was 6,646 lots, an increase of 1,366 compared with the previous week, and the position was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 compared with the previous week [8]. 3.2 Lead Supply: Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, and Secondary Lead - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume, inventory, actual consumption, and production volume of lead concentrate from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the form of charts. The import TC and domestic TC of lead concentrate, as well as the profit of imported and domestic lead concentrates, are also shown. The lead concentrate operating rate from 2021 to 2025 is also provided [29][30][31]. - **Primary Lead and Secondary Lead**: The production volume and weekly operating rate of primary lead from 2021 to 2025 are presented. The production volume of primary lead + secondary lead and secondary lead, as well as the operating rate of secondary lead from 2021 to 2025 are also shown. The by - product output of silver and the price of 1 silver are presented, along with the price of 98% sulfuric acid in East China [33][34][36]. - **Waste Batteries and Secondary Lead**: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises from 2021 to 2025 is presented. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost and profit of secondary lead from 2021 to 2025 are also shown. The net import of refined lead, the monthly import volume of Chinese lead ingots, the import profit and loss, and the export volume of lead ingots from 2021 to 2025 are presented [39][40][43]. 3.3 Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Batteries and Terminal - **Batteries**: The operating rate of lead batteries from 2021 to 2025 is presented, along with the monthly finished - product inventory days of lead - battery enterprises and dealers. The export volume of batteries from 2021 to 2025 is also shown [47]. - **Consumption and Terminal**: The actual consumption volume of lead from 2021 to 2025 is presented, along with the monthly production volume of automobiles and motorcycles from 2021 to 2025 [49].

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年11月30日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅：供应承压，但需求下滑，价格震荡 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：16800-17400元/吨 五地铅总库存减少，绝对库存处于历史同期低位 0 5 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03-14 03-26 04-08 04-19 05-05 05-16 05-28 06-09 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-25 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-10 09-23 10-09 10-21 11-01 11-13 11-25 12-06 12-18 12-30 万吨 五地总库存 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 国内铅现货升水扩大 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 ...