铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2026年01月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅：库存低位增加，价格震荡 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：17100-17800元/吨 五地铅总库存增加，但绝对库存处于历史同期低位 0 5 10 15 20 25 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03-14 03-26 04-08 04-19 05-05 05-16 05-28 06-09 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-25 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-10 09-23 10-09 10-21 11-01 11-13 11-25 12-06 12-18 12-30 万吨 五地总库存 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 国内铅现货持续处于升水状态 -200 -150 ...

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅：需求减弱，限制价格上涨 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：17300-17800元/吨 五地铅总库存减少，绝对库存处于历史同期低位 0 5 10 15 20 25 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03-14 03-26 04-08 04-19 05-05 05-16 05-28 06-09 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-25 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-10 09-23 10-09 10-21 11-01 11-13 11-25 12-06 12-18 12-30 万吨 五地总库存 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 国内铅现货升水缩窄至平水 -200 -150 -100 -5 ...

国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年12月21日 铅产业链周度报告 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：16800-17200元/吨 铅：供需双弱，价格震荡 五地铅总库存减少，绝对库存处于历史同期低位 0 5 10 15 20 25 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03-14 03-26 04-08 04-19 05-05 05-16 05-28 06-09 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-25 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-10 09-23 10-09 10-21 11-01 11-13 11-25 12-06 12-18 12-30 万吨 五地总库存 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 国内铅现货升水扩大 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 5 ...

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅：再生增加，需求谨慎，价格震荡 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：16900-17400元/吨 五地铅总库存减少，绝对库存处于历史同期低位 ◆ 原生铅冶炼厂检修恢复，再生铅利润较高，产量快速增加，消费端年底冲刺产量，预计铅价将 保持震荡走势。供应方面，原生铅产量增加，品位60%的铅精矿现货进口加工费持续处于低位； 但湖南、安徽等地的原生铅冶炼企业检修将结束，将增加原生铅供应。再生铅方面，铅价回升 带动利润走高，促使再生铅企业维持较高开工率。同时，山东等地再生铅企业常规检修后将恢 复生产并补充原材料，预计将带动再生铅产量进一步增加。 10 15 20 25 国内铅现货持续升水 0 5 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03 ...

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年12月07日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅：原生检修，需求增加，价格存支撑 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：17150-17500元/吨 五地铅总库存减少，绝对库存处于历史同期低位 0 5 10 15 20 25 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03-14 03-26 04-08 04-19 05-05 05-16 05-28 06-09 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-25 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-10 09-23 10-09 10-21 11-01 11-13 11-25 12-06 12-18 12-30 万吨 五地总库存 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 国内铅现货升水扩大 -200 -150 -100 - ...

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年11月30日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅：供应承压，但需求下滑，价格震荡 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：16800-17400元/吨 五地铅总库存减少，绝对库存处于历史同期低位 0 5 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03-14 03-26 04-08 04-19 05-05 05-16 05-28 06-09 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-25 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-10 09-23 10-09 10-21 11-01 11-13 11-25 12-06 12-18 12-30 万吨 五地总库存 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 国内铅现货升水扩大 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 ...

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅：再生供应增加，且炒作题材弱化，价格偏弱震荡 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：16900-17400元/吨 沪铅12合约持仓库存比处于历史同期低位 0 5 10 15 20 25 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03-14 03-26 04-08 04-19 05-05 05-16 05-28 06-09 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-25 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-10 09-23 10-09 10-21 11-01 11-13 11-25 12-06 12-18 12-30 万吨 五地总库存 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 25 pb2412.shf pb2508.s ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of primary lead is increasing, and the production of secondary lead is rapidly recovering. Consumption is temporarily stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The production of primary lead has increased, and secondary lead enterprises have large profits, leading to a rapid rise in production. Terminal consumption is temporarily stable, with an increase in the operating rate of battery factories and more raw material purchases. The lead price is expected to fluctuate, and short - volatility operations can be considered. With the increase in domestic lead inventory, the long domestic and short overseas arbitrage should be continued to hold [3][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, and Position - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract last week was 17,420 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.17%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,490 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.40%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 2,012 US dollars, with a decrease of 0.64%. The LME lead spot premium has changed from - 26.48 to - 10.74, and the spread between near - month and consecutive - one contracts has changed from - 80 to - 60 [6]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 258 to 21,903 tons, and the total Shanghai lead inventory increased by 2,583 to 38,582 tons. The social inventory increased by 2,000 to 31,800 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 16,600 to 203,700 tons, with the注销仓单 ratio at 49.95% [6]. - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead contract last week was 27,206 lots, a decrease of 21,113 lots compared with the previous week, and the position was 59,818 lots, a decrease of 8,366 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 10,307 lots, an increase of 4,935 lots, and the position was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [6]. Lead Supply: Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, and Secondary Lead - **Lead Concentrate**: The production, import volume, and actual consumption of lead concentrate in China are presented in the data, and the inventory in Lianyungang shows certain fluctuations over the years. The import and domestic treatment charges of lead concentrate have changed, and the profit of lead concentrate smelting has also fluctuated [24]. - **Primary and Secondary Lead**: The production of primary lead has increased, and the weekly operating rate has shown different trends over the years. The production of secondary lead has also increased, and the operating rate has recovered. The by - product silver output and the price of sulfuric acid in the lead - smelting process are also presented [29][30]. - **Waste Batteries and Secondary Lead**: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost and profit of secondary lead are shown in the data, and the net import and export volume of refined lead also have corresponding changes [36][40]. Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Batteries and Terminal - **Batteries**: The operating rate of lead - acid batteries has shown different trends over the years, and the monthly finished - product inventory days of battery enterprises and dealers are presented. The export volume of batteries also shows certain changes [44]. - **Consumption and Terminal**: The actual consumption of lead, the monthly production of automobiles and motorcycles are presented in the data, reflecting the terminal demand for lead [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lead is increasing while the demand is weak, which restricts the price increase. The strength - weakness analysis is neutral, and the price range is 17,200 - 17,800 yuan/ton. The total inventory of lead in five regions has decreased, and the absolute inventory is at a historically low level for the same period. The processing fee of lead concentrate remains weak [3][5][7]. - The primary lead production is under pressure, but the profit of secondary lead enterprises continues to expand, and the production increase expectation is strong. Consumption is gradually entering the off - season, and the enthusiasm of dealers to take delivery has decreased. The start - up rate of battery factories may decline, and raw material procurement may be restricted. The spot end's role in pushing up the price has weakened. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, and internal - external positive arbitrage can be carried out [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction Volume, Open Interest) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead last week was 17,595 yuan, with a weekly increase of 3.05%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,575 yuan, with a night - session decline of 0.11%. The LME lead cash - forward spread changed from - 41.85 to - 36.64, with a change of 5.21. The premium of lead in the bonded area remained unchanged at 112.5. The spot premium of Shanghai 1 lead changed from - 25 to - 10, with a change of 15. The spread between secondary lead and primary lead changed from - 50 to - 75, with a change of - 25 [8]. - **Inventory**: From October 16th to October 23rd, the domestic lead inventory decreased from 37,700 tons to 31,900 tons, still at a relatively low level for the same period in history. The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 9,034 tons to 23,048 tons, the total SHFE lead inventory decreased by 5,368 tons to 36,333 tons, the social inventory decreased by 5,800 tons to 31,900 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 15,025 tons to 235,375 tons [7][8]. - **Transaction Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead last week was 79,514 lots, an increase of 39,872 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 83,846 lots, an increase of 43,628 lots from the previous week. The trading volume of LME S - lead 3 was 4,991 lots, a decrease of 997 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots from the previous week [8] 3.2 Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The processing fee of lead concentrate continues to be weak. The spot import TC of 60% lead concentrate decreased to - 125 US dollars/ton this week. The import lead concentrate processing fee decreased from - 110 to - 125 US dollars/ton, and the import lead concentrate smelting profit decreased by 152 yuan/ton to - 1,850 yuan/ton. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained at 350 yuan/ton, and the domestic lead concentrate smelting profit remained at - 2,800 yuan/ton [5][7][8]. - **Primary Lead and Secondary Lead**: The primary lead production is under pressure, but the profit of secondary lead enterprises continues to expand, and the production increase expectation is strong. Some secondary lead enterprises in some regions are under maintenance due to environmental protection control, but the profit of primary lead has increased, and the supply of waste batteries is abundant. Secondary lead enterprises in Anhui have resumed production more [7]. 3.3 Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: Consumption is gradually entering the off - season. The enthusiasm of dealers to take delivery has decreased, the start - up rate of battery factories may decline, and raw material procurement may be restricted. The start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in previous years is shown in the data, and the monthly finished - product inventory days of battery enterprises and dealers are also provided [7][46]. - **End - Users**: The actual consumption of lead in previous years is shown in the data, along with the monthly production of automobiles and motorcycles [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The lead market lacks obvious drivers, and prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 16,900 - 17,500 yuan/ton. The total lead inventory in five regions has decreased, and the absolute inventory is at a historically low level for the same period [3]. - The processing fee for lead concentrate remains weak. The primary lead supply pressure is emerging, while demand shows a phased recovery. The price is expected to oscillate. On the supply side, primary lead production is under pressure, and the profit of secondary lead enterprises has recovered to a profitable level, increasing the expectation of resuming production. On the consumption side, it is gradually improving, with dealers showing good enthusiasm for receiving goods, and the finished - product inventory of battery factories remaining at a low level. In terms of unilateral trading, it is recommended to buy on dips or short volatility. In terms of spreads, the long - short position in the Shanghai lead term has decreased [5][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 17,075 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.38%. The LmeS - lead3 closed at 2018, with a weekly increase of 0.17%. The LME lead premium decreased by 3.63, the bonded area lead premium decreased by 2.5, the Shanghai 1 lead spot premium remained unchanged, and the secondary - primary lead spread decreased by 25 [8]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2014 to 32,082, the total Shanghai lead inventory increased by 1785 to 41,701, the social inventory increased by 800 to 37,700, and the LME lead inventory increased by 13,400 to 250,400 [8]. - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract increased by 3334 to 39,642, and the position decreased by 4577 to 40,218. The trading volume of LmeS - lead3 decreased by 7579 to 5988, and the position increased by 6194 to 142,000 [8]. Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: China's lead concentrate production, import volume, consumption, and other data are presented in the report. The processing fee (TC) of imported and domestic lead concentrates is also shown, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains weak. The lead concentrate production in 2025 shows a certain trend, and the inventory in Lianyungang also has corresponding changes [26][27]. - **Primary and Secondary Lead**: The production of primary lead and the combined production of primary and secondary lead in 2025 are presented. The weekly operating rate of primary lead and the production and operating rate of secondary lead also show corresponding trends. The profit of secondary lead smelting has recovered, and the production in many places has increased [31][32]. - **Waste Battery and Secondary Lead**: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost and profit of secondary lead are presented. The profit of secondary lead smelting is maintained at around 200 yuan/ton [38][39][41]. - **Import and Export**: The net import of refined lead, the monthly import volume of lead ingots, the import profit and loss, and the export volume of lead ingots are presented [42]. Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Battery, Terminal) - **Lead - Acid Battery**: The operating rate of lead - acid batteries, the monthly finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers, and the export volume of batteries are presented. The consumption of lead - acid batteries is gradually improving, and the finished - product inventory of battery factories remains at a low level [46]. - **Terminal Consumption**: The actual consumption of lead, the monthly production of automobiles and motorcycles are presented, reflecting the terminal demand for lead [48].