Company Summary - First Quantum Minerals reported a 15% quarter-on-quarter increase in copper production for Q3, driven by capacity expansion at the Kansanshi project [2] - The company set its copper production target for the year at 390,000 to 410,000 tons [2] - Capital expenditure target for the year is set between $1.15 billion and $1.25 billion [2] - Nickel cash production cost target for the year is projected to be between $4.75 and $5.50 per pound [2] Industry Summary - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing reliance on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [2] - To assist the industry in navigating these challenges, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is collaborating with copper industry enterprises to compile the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" [2]

Group 1 - Southern Copper Corporation has completed 23% of its $1.8 billion Tia Maria mining project and maintains its target for production in 2027, expecting to produce 120,000 tons of cathode copper annually [2] - The company plans to invest over $10.3 billion in various copper mining projects in Peru over the next decade, including Los Chancas and Michiquillay [2] - Southern Copper is working to secure the necessary administrative permits and licenses with the support of Peruvian authorities [2] Group 2 - China, as the world's largest copper consumer, faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [2]

Group 1 - Indonesia's Energy Ministry has granted copper concentrate export licenses to Amman Mineral International, with the project currently undergoing administrative approval [2] - Indonesia imposed a ban on copper concentrate and other raw mineral exports starting mid-2023 to promote domestic metal processing, but allowed Amman Mineral to continue exports until December last year due to the anticipated commissioning of a new smelter [2] - A fire at the smelter in West Nusa Tenggara prompted Amman Mineral to apply for an additional export license, which is permitted under force majeure conditions [2] Group 2 - The Energy Ministry's spokesperson indicated that the export license has been approved in a cabinet meeting due to the fire incident [2] - The Energy Ministry now needs to send an export recommendation to the Trade Ministry for the issuance of the export license [2] - The validity of the export license may be six months, as stated by the Energy Minister, although further details were not disclosed [2] Group 3 - China, as the world's largest copper consumer, faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [2] - To assist the industry in navigating these challenges, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network has collaborated with copper industry chain enterprises to compile the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" in both Chinese and English [2]

Core Insights - Grupo Mexico reported a 2.6% year-on-year decline in copper production for Q3, totaling 798,394 tons [2] - The company's net profit surged by 50% in Q3, driven by increased sales of molybdenum, silver, and zinc [2] - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: rising dependence on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [2] Company Summary - Grupo Mexico is one of the largest copper producers globally, with a notable decrease in copper output in the third quarter [2] - The significant increase in net profit indicates strong performance in other metal sales, particularly molybdenum, silver, and zinc [2] Industry Summary - The Chinese copper industry is experiencing challenges related to resource dependency, processing capacity, and demand dynamics [2] - A bilingual report titled "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" has been compiled to assist the industry in navigating these changes [2]

Group 1 - Anglo American reported a third-quarter copper production of 184,000 tons, an increase from 181,000 tons in the same period last year, driven by strong performance from the Quellaveco project and improved ore grades [2] - However, the company's copper production for the first three quarters of the year decreased by 9% year-on-year to 526,000 tons, down from 575,000 tons in the previous year [2] - The company expects its total copper production for the year to be between 690,000 and 750,000 tons [2] Group 2 - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [2] - To assist the industry in navigating these changes, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network has collaborated with copper industry enterprises to compile the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" in both Chinese and English [2]

Core Points - The Trump administration has overturned a previous air pollution regulation that imposed stricter limits on emissions from copper smelters, aiming to ease regulatory burdens on domestic copper producers [2] - The new copper rules, set to be finalized by May 2024, require smelters to control pollutants such as lead, arsenic, mercury, benzene, and dioxins according to the latest federal air standards [2] - The announcement provides a two-year exemption for affected fixed sources, with the White House stating that this will promote mineral security in the U.S. by reducing regulatory pressures on domestic copper producers [2] Industry Impact - The announcement is expected to help the domestic copper industry, which is already facing operational challenges, by allowing time for reassessment and planning regarding the implementation of copper regulations [2] - The U.S. government has previously imposed a 50% tariff on certain imported copper and mandated an increase in the domestic sale of high-quality scrap copper following a Section 232 investigation [2] Challenges in the Chinese Copper Industry - As the world's largest copper consumer, China faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign resources in the upstream sector, overcapacity in the midstream processing segment, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [2]

Group 1 - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy officials announced that the country may allow Amman Mineral International to export copper concentrate after banning ore exports last year [2] - China, as the world's largest copper consumer, faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [2] - To assist the industry in navigating these changes, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network has collaborated with copper industry chain enterprises to compile the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" in both Chinese and English [2]

Core Insights - Freeport-McMoRan reported a decline in copper and gold production for Q3, but profits exceeded Wall Street expectations due to rising copper prices offsetting production losses from the temporary shutdown of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia [2][3] Production and Sales - Q3 copper production was 912 million pounds, down from 1.1 billion pounds in the same period last year, attributed to a landslide incident and lower ore grades in Indonesia [2][4] - Q3 gold production was 287,000 ounces, a decrease from 456,000 ounces year-over-year, also impacted by the landslide and lower ore grades [2][4] - Q3 copper sales were 977 million pounds, slightly below the guidance of 990 million pounds, and lower than 1 billion pounds in Q3 2024 [2][4] - Q3 gold sales reached 336,000 ounces, down 4% from the guidance of 335,000 ounces and lower than 558,000 ounces in Q3 2024 [3][4] Pricing and Costs - The average realized price for copper in Q3 was $4.68 per pound, compared to $4.30 per pound in the same quarter last year [2][4] - The average realized price for gold in Q3 was $3,539 per ounce, significantly higher than $2,568 per ounce in the previous year [4] - Site production and delivery costs for copper were $2.71 per pound, while unit net cash costs were $1.40 per pound [4]

Core Insights - In August, Mexico's copper production increased to 39,514 tons, while gold production decreased from 6,048 kilograms in July to 5,914 kilograms [2] Industry Challenges - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: rising dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [2] Industry Support Initiatives - To assist the industry in navigating these changes, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network has collaborated with copper industry chain enterprises to compile the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map," available in both Chinese and English [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain volatile at current high levels. The supply - side contraction in mineral copper output is offset by the increase in recycled copper. On the demand side, domestic infrastructure provides support while overseas demand is weak. The continuous destocking of LME at the macro level supports prices. It is expected that copper prices will remain in a high - level shock range of 84,500 - 86,500 yuan/ton in the next one to two weeks [6][36] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - The price of SHFE's main copper contract closed at 85,530 yuan/ton on October 20, showing an upward trend. The LME copper price dropped to $10,611/ton on October 17. The LME (0 - 3) contango widened from -$11.16/ton to -$16.83/ton, indicating increased overseas spot supply pressure [1] - From October 14 to 20, LME copper inventory decreased by 3,090 tons to 41,319 tons, a decrease of 7.0%, with the overseas destocking speed accelerating. SHFE inventory slightly decreased by 50 tons to 137,175 tons, remaining stable overall [2] 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: Overseas mine disruptions continued. MMG's Las Bambas mine in Peru lost about 90,000 tons of copper resources due to illegal mining. Zijin Mining's third - quarter mineral copper output decreased by 6% quarter - on - quarter, tightening short - term supply. Although the import of recycled copper raw materials continued to grow, the import of anode copper decreased by 32.84% year - on - year, and there were still structural contradictions in refined copper supply [3] - **Demand Side**: Domestic demand was differentiated. The import of copper foil in the power sector increased by 7.28% year - on - year, and the import of copper alloys increased by 12.37% month - on - month. However, the export of copper enameled wire to the US and Indonesia declined year - on - year, showing weak demand in some overseas markets. The spot market was suppressed by high copper prices, and the concentrated arrival of imported copper further restricted the premium space [4] - **Inventory Side**: Global visible inventory continued the destocking trend. LME inventory dropped to 41,319 tons, a three - month low. Domestic SHFE inventory slightly decreased but remained at a high level of 137,000 tons. The increase in the arrival of imported copper may put pressure on subsequent inventory. The increase in the import of recycled copper raw materials may ease the supply gap of refined copper to some extent [5] 3.1.3 Market Summary - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain volatile at current high levels. The supply - side contraction in mineral copper output is offset by the increase in recycled copper. On the demand side, domestic infrastructure provides support while overseas demand is weak. The continuous destocking of LME at the macro level supports prices [6] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On October 20, the price of SMM's 1 copper was 85,990 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 1.24% compared to October 14. The price of SHFE was 85,530 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 1.05%. The LME price on October 17 was $10,611/ton [8] - The premium of premium copper remained stable at 95 yuan/ton. The premium of flat - water copper increased by 16.67% to 35 yuan/ton, and the premium of wet - process copper increased by 12.50% to - 35 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) contango widened [8] - From October 14 to 20, LME inventory decreased by 1,530 tons to 41,319 tons, a decrease of 3.57%. SHFE inventory decreased by 50 tons to 137,175 tons, a decrease of 0.04%. COMEX inventory data on October 17 was 345,581 short tons [8] 3.3 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [9][11][14] 3.4 Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - The SHFE main contract price increased slightly, while the LME price decreased slightly. The basis weakened, indicating increased spot pressure. LME inventory decreased, while SHFE inventory decreased slightly and COMEX inventory increased slightly [34][35] - On the supply side, the decrease in Zijin Mining's third - quarter output and the loss of copper in MMG's Peruvian mine may affect supply. Although anode copper imports decreased, recycled copper imports increased, showing diversified supply [35] - On the demand side, copper foil and copper alloy imports increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. Copper enameled wire exports to the US and Indonesia were weak. The domestic spot market was suppressed by high prices [35] - Overall inventory pressure was not large, but attention should be paid to subsequent imports. Copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock range of 84,500 - 86,500 yuan/ton in the next one to two weeks [35][36]