Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [7]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is transitioning from valuation recovery to fundamental recovery, with the purchase and sale price difference being a key tracking clue [4]. - The expectation of production restrictions is driving black commodity prices to gradually strengthen since early April, which is favorable for the expansion of steel material purchase and sale price differences [4][7]. - The price of steel has been under pressure due to tariff and anti-dumping policies, leading to a decline in steel prices before the May Day holiday [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Price Trends - From early April to now, the average prices of iron ore, metallurgical coke, rebar, and hot-rolled steel have decreased by 26, 72, 138, and 136 CNY/ton respectively [2]. - The purchase and sale price differences for rebar and hot-rolled steel have narrowed by 43 and 41 CNY/ton compared to the first quarter [2][7]. Production and Demand - The demand for construction steel has slightly declined as the pre-holiday replenishment effect weakens, with average daily transaction volumes for construction steel at 109,300 tons, down from the previous week [4]. - The average daily pig iron production of sample steel companies has risen to 2.4542 million tons, an increase of 10,700 tons compared to the previous period [4]. Inventory and Profitability - The total inventory of long products has decreased by 21.65% year-on-year, while plate inventory has decreased by 14.87% year-on-year [4]. - The estimated profit for rebar is 19 CNY/ton, while the profit based on lagging costs is 5 CNY/ton [4]. Future Outlook - In the second quarter of 2025, the purchase and sale price differences for steel are expected to expand due to the decline in long-term contract prices for coke and the expectation of production restrictions [5][7]. - The purchase and sale price differences for rebar and hot-rolled steel are projected to expand by 62 and 63 CNY/ton respectively if all steel companies adopt long-term contracts [7]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on undervalued quality companies in the steel sector, such as Baosteel and Nanjing Steel, as well as companies with strong performance potential like Hualing Steel and New Steel [25].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend intensities for individual commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment decisions. 2. Core Views - **Precious Metals**: Gold shows risk preference recovery, and silver stabilizes and rebounds. The trend intensities for both are neutral [5][6]. - **Base Metals**: Copper prices are supported by inventory reduction; aluminum is in a range - bound oscillation; zinc is in range consolidation; lead has a narrow - range oscillation; nickel may have a narrow - range oscillation with converging upside and downside space; stainless steel has a game between cost and negative feedback on the disk; tin has a slight repair; industrial silicon has a weak oscillation due to weak demand; and alumina is still seeking a bottom [2][10][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude - related products like fuel oil and asphalt have different trends; PTA, MEG, and other chemicals have specific trading strategies such as PTA's month - spread reverse arbitrage and going long on PTA and short on MEG [2][64][66]. - **Agricultural Products**: Corn oscillates strongly; sugar oscillates weakly; cotton's rebound is restricted by demand; and other agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's risk preference rebounds, and silver stabilizes and recovers. Yesterday, the closing price of沪金2506 was 780.04 with a - 0.91% daily change, and沪银2506 was 8168 with a - 1.35% daily change. The trend intensities for both are 0 [5][6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory reduction supports prices. The closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 77,580 with a 0.18% daily increase. The trend intensity is 0 [10]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum oscillates within a range, and alumina continues to seek a bottom. The closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 19935, and沪氧化铝主力合约 was 2862. The trend intensities for both are 0 [13]. - **Zinc**: It is in range consolidation. The closing price of沪锌主力 was 22520 with a - 1.01% daily change. The trend intensity is 0 [16]. - **Lead**: It has a narrow - range oscillation. The closing price of沪铅主力 was 17005 with a 0.35% daily increase. The trend intensity is 0 [19]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel may have a narrow - range oscillation, and stainless steel has a game between cost and negative feedback. The closing price of沪镍主力 was 124,690, and不锈钢主力 was 12,765. The trend intensities for both are 0 [21][22]. - **Tin**: It has a slight repair. The closing price of沪锡主力 was 262,840 with a 1.26% daily increase. The trend intensity is 0 [25][26]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a weak oscillation due to weak demand, and polysilicon is also weak due to news fermentation. The closing price of Si2506 was 8,800, and PS2506 was 37,780. The trend intensities for both are - 1 [32][33]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Cost support weakens, and attention should be paid to purchasing demand under high basis. The closing price of 2507 contract was 66,960. The trend intensity is 0 [36][37]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are volatile, and it has a wide - range oscillation. The closing price of 12509 was 710.5 with a 0.21% daily increase. The trend intensity is 0 [40][41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The expectation of production restriction increases, and there is a short - term rebound. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,129 with a 0.61% daily increase, and HC2510 was 3,237 with a 0.84% daily increase. The trend intensities for both are 1 [43][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: They are in low - level oscillations. The closing price of硅铁2506 was 5648, and锰硅2506 was 5746. The trend intensities for both are 0 [48]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: They are affected by production - restriction news and have wide - range oscillations. The closing price of JM2509 was 947 with a - 0.94% daily change, and J2509 was 1562 with a - 0.26% daily change. The trend intensities for both are 0 [51]. - **Steam Coal**: The rigid demand has limited impact, and it oscillates weakly. The trend intensity is 0 [55]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The closing price of FG509 was 1122 with a - 0.53% daily change. The trend intensity is 0 [59][60]. - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: PX's processing fee expands; PTA has a month - spread reverse arbitrage; and the strategy is to go long on PTA and short on MEG. The closing price of PX主力 was 6230, PTA主力 was 4400, and MEG主力 was 4160. The trend intensities for all are 0 [64][66]. - **Rubber**: It oscillates. The closing price of the rubber主力 was 14,730 (daily) and 14,735 (night). The trend intensity is 0 [70][72]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn oscillates strongly; sugar oscillates weakly; soybean meal may stop falling gradually; and other products have their own price trends [2][4]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: Eggs have a weak oscillation, and pigs start a phased inventory reduction [2][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Both rebar and hot-rolled coil are expected to have a short-term rebound due to the increasing expectation of production restrictions [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of RB2510 was 3,101 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.48%); HC2510 was 3,204 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.31%). The trading volume of RB2510 was 1,679,713 lots, with a position of 1,986,742 lots and an increase of 6,545 lots; HC2510 had a trading volume of 613,482 lots, a position of 1,407,096 lots, and an increase of 1,490 lots [2] - **Spot Price**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou increased by 40, 60, 50, and 50 yuan/ton respectively; hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou increased by 60, 70, 20, and 60 yuan/ton respectively. Tangshan billet price rose by 30 yuan/ton to 3010 yuan/ton [2] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2510 increased by 15 yuan/ton to 89 yuan/ton; the basis of HC2510 remained unchanged at 36 yuan/ton. The spread of RB2505 - RB2510 remained unchanged at -76; HC2505 - HC2510 increased by 7 to -14; HC2505 - RB2505 increased by 12 to 165; HC2510 - RB2510 increased by 5 to 103; the spot coil - rebar spread increased by 19 to -27 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Steel Production and Inventory Data (April 25)**: Rebar production decreased by 0.11 million tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 3.10 million tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 3.13 million tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 30.83 million tons, hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 6.86 million tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 50.41 million tons. Rebar apparent demand decreased by 13.88 million tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand increased by 0.20 million tons, and the total apparent demand of five major varieties decreased by 22.39 million tons [3] - **Industrial Enterprise Profit Data (January - March)**: The total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 1,509.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. State - owned holding enterprises' profit was 559.95 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%; joint - stock enterprises' profit was 1,110.15 billion yuan, an increase of 0.1%; foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan - invested enterprises' profit was 388.35 billion yuan, an increase of 2.8%; private enterprises' profit was 370.97 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% [3][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is both 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly strong trend [5]