Group 1: Implied Volatility Index and Historical Volatility - The financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day, and the commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the implied volatility of the two - level options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract month, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility indicates the relative level of implied volatility to historical volatility. A larger difference means the implied volatility is relatively higher, and a smaller difference means it is relatively lower [3] Group 2: Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread - The implied volatility quantile represents the current level of the implied volatility of a variety in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low [5] - The volatility spread is related to the implied volatility index and historical volatility [5] Group 3: Implied Volatility Quantile Data - Implied volatility quantile data is presented for various items such as 500E, 50E, 1000 ta za, 300 index, and rebar [7]

Core Viewpoint - Investors in Minerals Technologies Inc. (MTX) should closely monitor the stock due to significant movements in the options market, particularly the high implied volatility of the Feb 20, 2026 $45 Put option [1] Group 1: Implied Volatility - Implied volatility indicates the market's expectations for future stock movement, with high levels suggesting potential significant price changes or upcoming events that could lead to a rally or sell-off [2] - Options traders often seek high implied volatility options to sell premium, aiming to benefit from the decay of the option's value if the stock does not move as expected [4] Group 2: Analyst Sentiment - Minerals Technologies currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) within the Chemical – Specialty industry, which is positioned in the bottom 25% of the Zacks Industry Rank [3] - Over the past 30 days, no analysts have raised their earnings estimates for the current quarter, while one analyst has lowered the estimate, resulting in a decrease of the Zacks Consensus Estimate from $1.36 to $1.26 per share [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Historically, newly - issued convertible bonds showed resilience due to the "no - forced redemption" protection. However, their current valuations have significantly increased, and the valuation gap between newly - issued bonds and the entire market has widened, possibly reflecting the premium pursuit of certainty by funds under the high - valuation background [2][4]. - During the week, the A - share market oscillated weakly, with large - cap stocks outperforming. Cyclical sectors such as petroleum and non - ferrous metals led the gains, and trading activity increased [2][4]. - The convertible bond market weakened overall. Large - cap bonds were relatively resistant to decline, while small and medium - cap bonds were weaker. The average daily trading volume decreased. Valuations were compressed overall, implied volatility and the median price declined but remained at high levels, and market sentiment cooled marginally [2][4]. - Most individual bonds declined. The top - performing bonds had characteristics of low balance and high conversion premium rates [2][4]. - The issuance speed in the primary market accelerated, and the reserve was sufficient. In terms of terms, the willingness to lower the conversion price was weak, and the probability of no forced redemption increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the allocation opportunities of newly - issued and newly - listed bonds after the correction [2][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Theme Weekly Review - In the correction at the end of August 2025, newly - issued convertible bonds showed certain resistance to decline. They usually enjoy better liquidity and the "no - forced redemption" mechanism due to not entering the conversion period, resulting in relatively more stable median market prices and more resilient valuations compared to the whole market [12]. - At the end of January 2026, the valuations of newly - issued convertible bonds were generally higher than those in August 2025. The expansion of the valuation gap was mainly due to the high return requirements of some funds and the preference for varieties with stronger return certainty under the consensus of "no - forced redemption" [14]. - During the week from January 25th to January 31st, 2026, the equity market weakened as a whole, with the non - ferrous metal sector performing well. The gold and military - related sub - sectors within the non - ferrous metal and aerospace sectors showed different performances [19]. Market Weekly Tracking Main Indexes Differentiated, Science - Innovation and Mid - Cap Stocks Performed Strongly - During the week, the main A - share indexes oscillated weakly. The Shenzhen Component Index performed relatively weakly, and the ChiNext Index rebounded after a decline but still closed down. In terms of style, large - cap indexes were relatively dominant, while small and medium - cap and science - innovation indexes were weaker [21]. - In terms of funds, the net outflow of main funds in the market expanded during the week, and the average daily trading volume increased [22]. - Cyclical sectors in the A - share market were relatively strong during the week. Petroleum and petrochemicals, non - ferrous metals, and coal sectors led the gains, while commerce and retail, automotive, and national defense and military industries were weaker [25]. - In terms of trading volume, trading was mainly concentrated in the electronics, non - ferrous metals, and power equipment sectors. The average daily trading volume of the non - ferrous metal sector increased by more than 70% compared to the previous week [27]. - The congestion degree of market sectors still differed significantly. The congestion degree of sectors such as petroleum and petrochemicals, banks, and media increased, while that of sectors such as commerce and retail, public utilities, and social services decreased [30]. Convertible Bond Market Strengthened Overall, Small - Cap Indexes Performed Strongly - During the week, the convertible bond market weakened as a whole. The CSI Convertible Bond Index oscillated weakly, with large - cap convertible bond indexes performing relatively strongly and small and medium - cap convertible bond indexes performing weaker. The trading volume decreased slightly, but the average daily trading volume still exceeded 9 billion [33]. - Valuations in the convertible bond market were compressed overall when divided by parity and market price intervals. Only the conversion premium rates in some intervals increased, while those in most intervals decreased significantly [36]. - The weighted implied volatility of the convertible bond market balance oscillated weakly during the week, remaining at a historical high. The median market price of convertible bonds also oscillated weakly, still higher than the high point in August 2025 [39]. - Convertible bonds in cyclical sectors showed more flexibility. Coal, petroleum and petrochemicals and other cyclical sectors led the gains. Trading volume was mainly concentrated in the basic chemicals, power equipment, and electronics sectors, with the combined trading volume of these three sectors accounting for more than 35% [43]. - Most individual convertible bonds weakened during the week. Only 109 convertible bonds had an increase in the range of more than or equal to 0, accounting for 28.2% of the total number of outstanding convertible bonds in the market. The top - performing and bottom - performing convertible bonds in the conversion period had different characteristics, and the top - performing bonds generally had low bond balances and some had high conversion premium rates [45]. Convertible Bond Issuance and Terms Tracking Primary Market Pre - issuance Situation During the Week - Two convertible bonds, Naipu Zhuan 02 and Lianrui Convertible Bond, were listed during the week [49]. - A total of 16 listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans in the primary market during the week, with different progress stages. The total scale of projects at and after the exchange acceptance stage reached 8.511 billion yuan [50][51]. Summary of Lowering - related Announcements During the Week - Four convertible bonds issued announcements indicating that they were expected to trigger a lowering of the conversion price during the week, with a market - value - weighted average PB of the underlying stocks of 2.2 [56][59]. - Five convertible bonds issued announcements of not lowering the conversion price during the week, with a market - value - weighted average PB of the underlying stocks of 2.6 [58][59]. - One convertible bond issued an announcement proposing to lower the conversion price during the week, with a PB of the underlying stock of 4.3 [59]. Summary of Redemption - related Announcements During the Week - Fourteen convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemption during the week [61][64]. - Two convertible bonds announced that they would not be redeemed early during the week [62][64]. - One convertible bond announced early redemption during the week [60][63].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are expected to experience the largest single-day drop since April 2013, while silver is facing an even steeper decline, with a 14% drop marking the largest single-day decrease since August 2020 [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The options market has signaled warnings prior to today's sell-off, with a one-month implied volatility for gold at approximately 38%, the highest level since the 2008/2009 financial crisis [1] - This period also marks the largest premium of implied volatility over realized volatility since records began in 2007, indicating potential market crisis conditions [1] Group 2: Historical Context - Significant spikes in implied volatility have historically occurred during market turmoil, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Investors in AbbVie Inc. should closely monitor the stock due to significant movements in the options market, particularly the high implied volatility of the Mar 20, 2026 $90 Call option [1] Group 1: Implied Volatility - Implied volatility indicates the market's expectations for future price movements, with high levels suggesting potential significant price changes or upcoming events that could lead to a rally or sell-off [2] - Options traders often seek high implied volatility options to sell premium, aiming to benefit from the decay of options value if the underlying stock does not move as much as anticipated [4] Group 2: Analyst Sentiment - AbbVie currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) within the Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry, which is positioned in the bottom 26% of the Zacks Industry Rank [3] - Over the past 30 days, no analysts have raised their earnings estimates for the current quarter, while four analysts have lowered their estimates, resulting in a decrease of the Zacks Consensus Estimate from $3.37 to $3.02 per share [3]

（来源：吴说） Wintermute 指出，比特币已在 85,000–94,000 美元区间横盘约 60 天，上周出现创纪录的比特币与以太坊 ETF 净流出，叠加 Coinbase 溢价转负，显示美国资金成为主要卖压来源。尽管黄金、白银在"货币贬值 交易"中创下新高，但 BTC 的"数字黄金"叙事尚未兑现。当前隐含波动率被显著压缩，市场参与度偏 低。短期关键观察包括 FOMC 表态、Mag7 财报、关税进展与美元走势。在 ETF 资金回流或美元走弱 前，BTC 预计仍将受制于区间震荡，85,000 美元为关键支撑位。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a mixed performance in the stock indices, with significant changes in options trading volumes and open interest, suggesting a shift in market sentiment and risk management strategies [1][2] Group 2 - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, CSI 1000, and SSE 50 indices showed varied performance, with a notable decline in stock index options trading volume and value, while open interest increased [1] - Implied volatility for stock index options has decreased significantly, with IO at 16.24%, MO at 23.05%, and HO at 15.28%, indicating a potential for future declines in implied volatility premiums [1] - Market risk aversion has risen, as evidenced by the PCR ratios for various options, with IO at 0.67 for open interest, MO at 0.94, and HO at 0.62, reflecting changing trading behaviors [1] - The concentration of open interest in specific strike prices remains stable, with CSI 1000 options focused on 8600 call and 8400 put, SSE 50 options on 3200 call and 3000 put, and Shanghai 300 options on 4800 call and 4700 put [2] - The significant drop in trading volume and implied volatility suggests that traders may consider buying put options to hedge against potential risks in their positions [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the beginning of 2026, the CSI 1000 Index has broken through the upper edge of the previous shock range and risen rapidly, but entered a shock consolidation phase after January 13. The long - term upward logic of the index is solid, but it is likely to consolidate in the short term. Buying the butterfly spread strategy of CSI 1000 index options can match the current market expectation [2][10][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Condition Analysis - The CSI 1000 Index broke through the upper edge of the shock range due to multiple factors such as the strong resilience of macro - economic data, positive policy expectations, and net inflow of incremental funds. After January 13, it entered a shock consolidation period [2] - As of January 16, the position PCR of CSI 1000 index options was 92.97%, at the 74.6% quantile level since 2023. The decline of position PCR since January 13 indicates that market sentiment has cooled [3] - As of January 16, the at - the - money implied volatility of CSI 1000 index options was 21.90%, at the 55.0% quantile level since 2023. The decline of implied volatility since January 13 shows that investors' expectation of high - volatility risk has returned to normal [4] Factors Affecting the Index Policy - related - The macro - policy has a strong determination to stabilize domestic demand. The macro - economic data in December 2025 showed strong resilience, and the policy will focus on promoting the economic positive cycle by boosting residents' consumption [5][6] - The policy has a clear determination to support scientific and technological innovation. The "15th Five - Year Plan" has set goals for key technological breakthroughs and the development of strategic emerging industries, which strongly support the CSI 1000 Index [7] Capital - related - As of January 15, the margin trading balance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.69 trillion yuan, and the margin trading purchase amount increased significantly. The active margin trading funds have promoted the market rally [8] - On January 14, the minimum margin ratio for margin trading was raised from 80% to 100%. This adjustment reflects the regulator's intention to guide rational investment and prevent systemic risks. With the significant increase in stock valuations, investors' profit - taking intention has risen, and the index is likely to consolidate in the short term [9] Strategy Recommendation - Buying the butterfly spread strategy of CSI 1000 index options can match the current market expectation. This strategy is composed of three option contracts with different strike prices in arithmetic progression and the same expiration date and type. It can limit both maximum profit and maximum loss, and has a relatively high probability of profit within a certain range. It can capture potential mild - rise returns and control callback risks [10][11]

Group 1 - The article reports that on January 16, 20,000 BTC options are set to expire, with a Put/Call Ratio of 1.39 and a maximum pain point of $92,000, representing a notional value of approximately $2.3 billion [1] - Additionally, 120,000 ETH options are expiring, with a Put/Call Ratio of 1.04 and a maximum pain point of $3,200, amounting to a notional value of about $430 million [1] - The article highlights that there is significant pressure from call options sold around the $100,000 mark for BTC, indicating a bearish sentiment among institutions, with expectations leaning towards a price range of $90,000 to $100,000 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On January 16, 2026, coking coal options were officially launched on the DCE, marking the further improvement of the black - series risk management system [2][5] - For the time - value earning strategy, when the price approaches the upper range (e.g., around 1350 - 1400 yuan/ton) and IV is high, sell out - of - the - money call options and buy deep - out - of - the - money call options; when the price drops to the lower range (e.g., around 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton) and IV is relatively high, sell out - of - the - money put options and buy deep - out - of - the - money put options [2][19] - For the relatively aggressive option - buying strategy, when the price rises to the upper range and IV is relatively low, consider buying out - of - the - money put options; when the price drops to the lower range and IV is relatively low, consider buying out - of - the - money call options [2][19] Summary by Directory I. Background and Significance of Coking Coal Options Launch - Coking coal is a key raw material in the coal - coke - steel industry chain. In 2024, China's coking coal production accounted for 53% of the global total and consumption accounted for 63%. However, its price has fluctuated sharply, and the coking coal futures listed in 2013 have limitations, so there is an urgent need for coking coal options [5] - On January 16, 2026, coking coal options were launched on the DCE, which, as a supplementary tool to futures, improves the black - series risk management system [2][5] II. Coking Coal Option Contract Design and Trading Rules 1. Coking Coal Option Contracts - The underlying asset is the coking coal futures contract, with contract types including call and put options. The trading unit is 1 lot (60 tons) of coking coal futures contract, the quotation unit is yuan (RMB)/ton, and the minimum price change is 0.1 yuan/ton. The daily price limit is the same as that of the underlying futures contract. The contract months are from January to December [6] - The last trading day is the 12th trading day before the delivery month of the underlying futures contract, which can be adjusted according to national legal holidays. The expiration date is the same as the last trading day. The exercise price covers a certain price range, and the exercise price intervals vary for different contract periods. The exercise style is American [8] - The trading codes for call and put options are JM - contract month - C - exercise price and JM - contract month - P - exercise price respectively, and the listing exchange is the Dalian Commodity Exchange [8] 2. Key Trading Rules - The core design of coking coal option contracts focuses on connecting with futures and flexible risk control. The exercise price has a "near - dense, far - sparse" setting. The American exercise style allows investors to exercise at any time before expiration [9] - Un - exercised in - the - money options at expiration will be automatically exercised. The settlement price is determined differently on non - last trading days and the last trading day. The seller's margin is the higher of two calculation standards. The position limit is 8000 lots, calculated separately from futures positions [9][10] - The trading and exercise commission is 0.5 yuan/lot, halved for hedging transactions. A market - making mechanism is introduced to enhance market liquidity [10] III. Core Functions and Market Value of Coking Coal Options 1. Risk Management Function: From Passive Hedging to Active Strategy Management - Coking coal options can help industrial customers transform from passive risk hedging to active strategy management. Their non - linear return characteristics can cover tail risks, and option buyers only need to pay the premium, reducing cash - flow volatility and improving capital efficiency [11] - Options and futures can be flexibly combined to form diverse strategies, enabling enterprises to customize strategies according to market conditions [11] 2. Market Function: Improving Liquidity and Pricing Efficiency - The diversified design of coking coal options improves market liquidity and pricing efficiency. The American exercise mechanism and various trading orders reduce trading friction, and the implied volatility reflects market expectations more accurately, promoting a more efficient pricing system in the coal - coke - steel industry chain [12] IV. Application and Practical Cases in the Option Industry 1. Enterprises' Pain Points - Coking coal industry chain enterprises face many operating pain points, such as profit erosion due to price fluctuations for coking enterprises, double - price fluctuations for washing enterprises, and high external procurement costs and lagging spot pricing for mixed - ownership enterprises. Traditional futures hedging has limitations [13][14] 2. Typical Application Scenarios - Inventory hedging: Coking enterprises can buy put options to lock in the minimum realization price of inventory while retaining upside potential [15] - Virtual inventory construction: When the price is low, enterprises can sell out - of - the - money put options to optimize procurement and reduce costs [15] - Hedging of option - embedded trade: Enterprises can use on - exchange options to hedge the price - fluctuation risks in option - embedded trade contracts [15] - Hedging optimization: Washing enterprises can adopt a composite hedging model of "mainly futures, supplemented by options" to improve risk - control efficiency [16] V. Strategy Reference in the Initial Stage of Coking Coal Options Listing 1. Coking Coal Market Analysis - The current coking coal market has stable supply and demand but divided expectations. The winter - storage demand before the Spring Festival supports prices, but high Mongolian coal customs clearance, stable domestic coal - mine operation, and expected increase in Australian coal imports suppress price increases. The main - contract price fluctuates between 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton [17] 2. Coking Coal Volatility Analysis - The long - term average of coking coal's historical volatility is about 30.07%, and it can rise above 50% during extreme events. In the initial stage of coking coal options listing, the implied volatility may be higher than the historical volatility, and it is expected to form a more stable relationship with the historical volatility later [18] 3. Strategies on the Listing Day and in the Initial Stage of Coking Coal Options - Adopt a range - bound strategy. For the time - value earning strategy, consider different option - trading combinations based on price ranges and IV levels. For the relatively aggressive option - buying strategy, also consider different option - buying actions according to price ranges and IV levels [19]