集运指数（欧线）观点： 现货市场延续弱势，10空单酌情持有 国泰君安期货研究所 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 首席分析师/能化联席行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年8月3日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 需求 8月中旬起，市场整体货量呈温和下降趋势，观察后续回落速率。 33周市场运费中枢降至 3150 美元/FEU 附近，对应SCFIS指数在2200点左右。当前FAK运价下调速度偏中性，关注8月下旬至9月中旬跌价周期内运费下调速率 的变化。 观点 月度级别来看，9月大概率是供需双减格局，但当前统计到的运力下滑幅度或不及需求下滑幅度，预计基本面进一步承压，市场基本面交易逻辑维持逢高空。 海外宏观面，美国7月份非农就业人数增长低于预期，失业率小幅上升，市场风险偏好恶化，全球股市下跌，关注短期市场对"衰退"定价以及是否会与EC基 本面形成共振。 策略 单边：10空单酌情持有，上方压力位参考1450-1500点； 风险 关税变化；中东地缘局势迅速降温等。 估值 套利 ...

Group 1: Overall Viewpoints - The weekly view on the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is to short at high levels for the 10th contract and hold the reverse spread between the 10th and 12th contracts [1][4] - In the monthly perspective, September is likely to see a double - decline in supply and demand, with the expected decline in demand exceeding that in supply, putting further pressure on the fundamentals [5] Group 2: Supply Analysis - In the past week, the number of blank sailings in August increased by 1, but due to MSC's practice of replacing small ships with large ones, the overall market capacity remained stable at around 321,000 TEU/week [4][59] - In September, the number of blank sailings remained at 2, and the number of pending voyages decreased from 7 to 4. Excluding pending voyages, the average weekly capacity in September was revised up from 299,000 to 314,000 TEU/week, slightly lower than August but higher than July [4] Group 3: Demand Analysis - It is expected that the cargo volume in the first half of August (weeks 31 and 32) will remain resilient, and Christmas orders are likely to be shipped by the first half of August. The inflection point of market cargo volume is likely to occur in the second half of August [4] - In June, China's exports to the US showed a narrowing decline, while exports to the EU, ASEAN, Africa, and Japan maintained resilience [36] Group 4: Price Analysis - For the 2508 contract, the average FAK in weeks 30 and 31 was around $3,350 - $3,400/FEU, corresponding to an SCFIS index of 2,300 - 2,350 points. In week 32, different shipping companies had different price adjustment plans [6] - The market average of spot freight rates and the SCFIS index had certain fluctuations in the recent period, with specific changes in each week's data [13][14] Group 5: Historical Data - The report presents historical freight rate data (monthly) with detailed comparisons of year - on - year and month - on - month changes between different months and years [9] - It also shows the historical monthly spread data between different contract months [10] Group 6: Trade Volume Data - Data on US imports by major countries are provided, including year - on - year and month - on - month changes in June [34] - Asian export trade volume data to Europe, North America, and other regions are presented, with specific volume and change data for different months [40][44]

2025 年 7 月 11 日 集运指数（欧线）：10 空单轻仓持有 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2508 | 2,022.5 | 1.62% | 34,566 | 30,945 | -403 | 1.12 | 0.81 | | | | EC2510 | 1,401.1 | 1.35% | 13,584 | 29,957 | 315 | 0.45 | 0.35 | | | | EC2512 | 1,556.4 | 0.34% | 1,644 | 6,032 | -66 | 0.27 | 0.34 | | | | | 本期 | | 2025/7/7 | | 单位 | | 周涨幅 | | | | SCFIS： 欧洲航线 | | 2,258.04 | | | 点 | | 6.3% | | | 运价 | SCFIS： 美西航线 | | 1,557 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of the US routes have both increased, and the freight rates from the US East and West have declined from their highs and may have peaked. The European routes have a price increase expectation in August, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the price increase in July and the peak - time and downward slope of the freight rates in 2025 [3][6]. - The geopolitical situation between Israel and Iran may affect the shipping market, but the direct impact on container transportation is relatively small [2][5][6]. - The current strategy suggestions are that the main contract fluctuates in the single - side operation, and in the arbitrage operation, go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, go long on the 12 contract and short on the 10 contract [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Analysis - **European Routes**: Multiple shipping companies have announced price increase letters for the second half of June, and some have reported shipping schedules for July. For example, HPL, CMA, and ONE have reported July shipping schedules. The MSC's price increase letter for the second half of June is 2340/3900 (previous price increase letter in the first half of June was 1920/3200) [1]. - **US Routes**: The demand for the China - US routes has increased rapidly due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs. The freight rates have risen sharply due to the supply - demand mismatch. Currently, carriers are actively restoring capacity. The weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes in the remaining two weeks of June is 321,000 TEU, 243,400 TEU in May, and 350,000 TEU in July. The freight rates in the US East and West have increased significantly in June, but there are signs of decline recently [3]. II. Geopolitical Situation Iran has sent signals to end hostilities and resume nuclear - related negotiations. It is willing to return to the negotiation table as long as the US does not join the air strikes. However, Israel has little incentive to stop attacking before further weakening Iran's nuclear facilities [2]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - The capacity pressure on the European routes in June has decreased. The weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - European routes in the remaining two weeks of June is about 236,500 TEU. The weekly average capacity in July is 279,400 TEU, and there are currently 5 blank sailings in July and 1 in August [4]. - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of June 15, 2025, 126 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.004 million TEU [7]. IV. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of June 16, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for European routes is 91,123 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 88,628 lots. The closing prices of different contracts vary, such as 1453.60 for the EC2602 contract and 1934.30 for the EC2506 contract [7]. - **Spot Prices**: The SCFI (Shanghai - US West) freight rate is currently 4120 US dollars/FEU (the lowest this year was 1965 US dollars/FEU), and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) freight rate is 6745 US dollars/FEU (the lowest this year was 2866 US dollars/FEU). The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on June 16 was 1697.63 points [3][7]. V. Strategy - **Single - side**: The main contract fluctuates. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, go long on the 12 contract and short on the 10 contract [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests to short at high prices for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) and reduce positions in the 10 - 12 reverse spread at high prices [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC2506 final delivery settlement price may be around 1950 points due to shipping delays and container skipping in June. For EC2508, it's recommended to take a volatile approach (1900 - 2300 points), with July's freight average expected to be between 3000 - 3400 dollars/FEU. The EC2510 can be shorted at high prices as it may reach the lowest price of the year in the off - season. The 10 - 12 reverse spread can be reduced at high prices [1][15][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: EC2506 closed at 1,937.9 with a 0.03% change, EC2508 at 2,068.0 with a 2.76% change, and EC2510 at 1,445.6 with a 3.08% change. Their trading volumes were 1,661, 127,644, and 40,857 respectively, and open interests were 5,442, 44,844, and 28,910 respectively [1]. - **Freight Index**: The SCFIS European route increased by 29.5% to 1,622.81 points, and the US - West route increased by 27.2% to 2,185.08 points. The SCFI European route increased by 10.6% to 1,844 dollars/TEU, while the US - West route decreased by 26.5% to 4,120 dollars/FEU [1]. - **Spot European Line Freight**: Different carriers' prices for 40'GP and 20'GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam or Antwerp vary, such as Maersk's 2840 dollars/40'GP and 1700 dollars/20'GP [1]. - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index was 98.15, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.19 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Market Performance**: In the past week, the Container Shipping Index fluctuated at a high level. The main 2508 contract oscillated between 2000 - 2200 points, and the second - main 2510 contract rebounded from around 1350 points to 1450 points [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In the 26th week (June 23 - 29), different shipping alliances had different pricing strategies. With the increase of FAK prices, some BCO customers' orders returned to the long - term agreement market. The US - line freight will continue to decline in late June [12][14]. - **Capacity**: The average weekly capacity in June was 296,000 TEU. In July, the average weekly capacity is 306,000 TEU without considering pending voyages. In August, the average weekly capacity is 298,000 TEU/week without considering pending voyages and 313,000 TEU with pending voyages [13]. - **Geopolitical Impact**: The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical situation has little impact on the European line's capacity but may affect demand. The US - line freight will decline, and the situation of bookings after the price adjustment in July needs to be observed [14].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The significant rebound of the container shipping index contracts on the day is mainly due to the better - than - expected Sino - US talks over the weekend. The short - term trade prospects have improved, and the supply concerns brought by the US line to the European line have been alleviated, which significantly boosts market expectations. However, the progress in the later stage is still uncertain, and the supply - demand fundamentals of the European line are weak. In the long term, container shipping prices may still be more likely to fall than rise. It is recommended to participate mainly from the perspective of short - term oversold rebound [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - The spot market changed little. The online quotes in the second half of May were basically the same as those in the first half. The significant rebound of the container shipping index contracts was caused by the Sino - US talks. According to the Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement, both China and the US suspended the tariff measures upgraded after April 2, and the short - term trade prospects improved. But the long - term container shipping prices may be weak, and short - term oversold rebound is recommended [8]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - From May 6th to 9th, the China Export Container Transport Market was generally stable after the holiday, with different routes showing different trends. The comprehensive index rose slightly. In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year. - On May 9th, the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index rose 0.3% from the previous period. In the European route, due to weak consumption and slow progress in US - EU trade negotiations, the transport demand was stable, and the spot market booking price fell slightly. The Mediterranean route's supply - demand fundamentals were better, and the market price was flat. In the North American route, China's exports to the US decreased in April, but the market price rose slightly [9][10]. - From May 10th to 11th, Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva. On May 12th, the "Sino - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement" was released. The US will cancel 91% of the tariffs on Chinese goods and modify the 34% "reciprocal tariff", suspending 24% of it for 90 days and retaining 10%. China will also take corresponding measures [10]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: On May 12th, the SCFIS for the European route decreased by 5.5% compared to May 4th, while that for the US West route increased by 10.2% [13]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Quotes**: The report provides the trading data of container shipping European line futures contracts on May 12th, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, etc. All contracts rebounded significantly, with a maximum increase of 16% [6]. - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: The report presents multiple charts, including global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, etc. [20][23]