1. Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report - Date: January 6, 2026 - Research Team: Macro Finance Research Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS index rebounded 3.1% to 1795.83 points this week. The price increase in mid - to late December was well - implemented. The freight rate in early January was around $2880, and the cargo - booking status was good. The market still has expectations for price increases in late January. The February contract may have some upside potential, but the expectation of the Red Sea resuming navigation after the Spring Festival may heat up, so attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for the April contract in the off - season and the positive spread trading opportunities between the 02 and 04 contracts [8] 3. Market Review and Operation Suggestions 3.1 Spot Market - The SCFIS index further rose 3.1% to 1795.83 points this week. The price increase in mid - to late December was well - implemented, and the freight rate in early January was maintained at around $2880, with good cargo - booking status. The late - January quotes are concentrated in the range of $2700 - $3100, and there are still expectations for price increases. After the Spring Festival, the expectation of the Red Sea resuming navigation may increase, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for the April contract in the off - season and the positive spread trading opportunities between the 02 and 04 contracts [8] 3.2 Futures Market | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Closing Price | Settlement Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2602 | 1,828.5 | 1,840.0 | 1,855.5 | 1,859.4 | 27.0 | 1.48 | 22903 | 26046 | 1916 | | EC2604 | 1,167.2 | 1,187.8 | 1,198.0 | 1,189.6 | 30.8 | 2.64 | 8562 | 22629 | 1710 | | EC2606 | 1,370.4 | 1,395.0 | 1,389.0 | 1,390.2 | 18.6 | 1.36 | 500 | 2201 | 49 | | EC2608 | 1,496.5 | 1,506.0 | 1,502.3 | 1,503.7 | 5.8 | 0.39 | 127 | 1188 | - 7 | | EC2610 | 1,059.9 | 1,062.4 | 1,082.6 | 1,076.8 | 22.7 | 2.14 | 948 | 6055 | 31 | | EC2612 | 1,300.5 | 1,319.0 | 1,311.9 | 1,315.6 | 11.4 | 0.88 | 21 | 48 | - 10 | [6] 4. Industry News - From December 22 to December 26, 2025, the China Export Container Shipping Market showed a positive trend. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index rose 6.7% to 1656.32 points. The freight rates of European, Mediterranean, and North American routes all increased [9] - In December 2025, many shipping companies such as MSC, CMA CGM, Maersk, and Hapag - Lloyd announced price increases or surcharge adjustments for multiple international routes [9][10] - Military operations in the Middle East continued. The Israeli army killed many Hamas members. The armed militants hiding in the Rafah tunnels were still in direct contact with the Hamas military leadership [10] - The Suez Canal Authority announced that Maersk would resume Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation in early December, but Maersk later stated that it had not determined the specific resumption date [10] 5. Data Overview 5.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Date | SCFIS: European Route (Base Ports) | SCFIS: US West Route (Base Ports) | Change | MoM (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/1/5 | 1795.83 | 1250.12 | 53.19 (European), - 51.29 (US West) | 3.1 (European), - 3.9 (US West) | | 2025/12/29 | 1742.64 | 1301.41 | | | [12] 5.2 Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market - The report provides the trends of the main contract and the second - main contract of container shipping European route futures [18] 5.3 Shipping - Related Data Trends - The report presents data trends in European container ship capacity, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European base port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [18][20]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the EC2602 contract, future trends depend on spot prices. It's difficult to predict the peak height, timing of the January freight rates, and subsequent price - drop rhythms. At current levels, entry is not recommended [2]. - The EC2604 contract has a moderately high valuation, but there is a short - term upward risk due to factors such as capital position transfer, geopolitical reversals, pre - holiday position reduction, and price increase announcements after reaching a price bottom. The strategy is to short on rallies [2]. - The far - month contracts are highly affected by geopolitics. Given the long - term logic of resumption of navigation and off - season, the strategy for the EC2610 contract is to short on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Data - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1613.0, with a change of 0.31% and a decline of 23.8. The trading volume was 85 [1]. - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1824.5, with a change of 1.38% and a decline of 235.3. The trading volume was 26553 [1]. - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1154.8, with a change of - 0.83% and an increase of 434.4. The trading volume was 7478 [1]. - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1316.2, with a change of - 0.29% and an increase of 273.0. The trading volume was 734 [1]. - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1486.1, with a change of - 0.71% and an increase of 103.1. The trading volume was 62 [1]. - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1049.3, with a change of - 0.92% and an increase of 539.9. The trading volume was 939 [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - EC2512 - 2504: The spread was 458.2, with a daily increase of 14.7 and a weekly decrease of 57.4 [1]. - EC2512 - 2602: The spread was - 211.5, with a daily decrease of 19.8 and a weekly decrease of 167.3 [1]. - EC2502 - 2604: The spread was 669.7, with a daily increase of 34.5 and a weekly increase of 109.9 [1]. Shipping Indexes - SCFIS (European Line): On 2025/12/22, the index was 1589.20 points, with a 5.21% increase from the previous period. On 2025/12/26, the price was 1690 dollars/TEU [1]. - CCFI: On 2025/12/26, the index was 1519.06 points, with a 3.06% increase from the previous period [1]. - NCFI: On 2025/12/26, the index was 1144.37 points, with a 7.22% increase from the previous period [1]. European Line Spot Freight Quotes - Week 52: Maersk (MSK) opened at 2300 dollars, and other companies mainly followed Week 51. The central price was 2500 dollars, equivalent to about 1750 points on the futures [3]. - Week 1: Maersk (MSK) opened at 2500 dollars, OA at 2700 - 2800 dollars (EMC's partial routes at 2500+ dollars), and PA at 2800 dollars (Jiliang at 2600 dollars). The central price was 1950 dollars, equivalent to about 1950 points on the futures [3]. - Week 2: Maersk (MSK) kept the price flat at 2500 dollars, but the price at Hamburg Port was 2600 dollars (a 100 - dollar increase from the previous period) [3]. Related News - On December 28, differences between the US and Israel over the Gaza issue emerged. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu visited the US, aiming to persuade the US to accept Israel's tougher stance on the Gaza cease - fire agreement [4]. - On December 27, the rift in the Gulf region deepened as Saudi Arabia attacked a Yemeni faction supported by the UAE [4].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - There is no obvious trend in the recent market, and the futures market fluctuates widely around the MSK cabin opening news. For contracts after 02, the focus is on the spot price trend. The contradiction lies in the peak height and time of freight rates in January. Historically, freight rate highs often occur 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival, but high capacity in January may suppress the increase. Currently, the profit - loss ratio for both short and long positions is not high, so it is recommended to wait and see. For contract 04, the short - term downside space is limited, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities when it follows the spot price or recovers the basis. For far - month contracts, a positive spread strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for contract 10 [3][13] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On December 18, 2025, EC2512 closed at 1632.0 with a 0.03% increase; EC2602 closed at 1699.8 with a 0.77% increase; EC2604 closed at 1124.1 with a 1.02% increase; EC2606 closed at 1283.7 with a 0.49% decrease; EC2608 closed at 1448.1 with a 0.98% decrease; EC2610 closed at 1045.2 with a 0.38% increase [2][12] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of EC2512 was 390, and the open interest was 2218 with a decrease of 348; EC2602 had a trading volume of 24199, and the open interest was 31971 with a decrease of 512; EC2604 had a trading volume of 4585, and the open interest was 19059 with a decrease of 869; EC2606 had a trading volume of 223, and the open interest was 2306 with an increase of 1; EC2608 had a trading volume of - (not clear), and the open interest was 1325 with a decrease of 26; EC2610 had a trading volume of 417, and the open interest was 4795 with an increase of 84 [2][12] - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread of EC2512 - 2504 was 507.9, a decrease of 10.9 compared to the previous day and 83.2 compared to the previous week; EC2512 - 2602 was - 67.8, a decrease of 12.5 compared to the previous day and 112.7 compared to the previous week; EC2502 - 2604 was 5/5.7, an increase of 1.6 compared to the previous day and 29.5 compared to the previous week [2][12] Spot Market - **European Line Spot Freight Rates**: In Week 51, MSK opened at 2400 (a month - on - month increase of 200), MSC and OA quoted 2600 - 2700, and PA quoted 2400 US dollars. The current central price was 1760 US dollars, equivalent to about 1760 points on the futures market. In Week 52, MSK opened at 2300 (a month - on - month decrease of 100), and other companies mainly followed the prices in Week 51. MSC opened at 2864 US dollars (a month - on - month increase of 200), equivalent to 2000 points on the futures market. MSK's opening quotes for the China - Europe line to London were 2700 US dollars/FEU (2800 for 40 - foot high - cube containers), and 2500 US dollars/FEU for European base ports such as Rotterdam (2600 for 40 - foot high - cube containers) [4][14] - **Spot Freight Rate Indexes**: As of December 15, 2025, the SCFI (European Line) was 1510.56 points, a 0.10% increase from the previous period; the freight rate was 1538 US dollars/TEU, a 9.86% increase. As of December 12, 2025, the CCFI was 1470.55 points, a 1.59% increase; the NCFI was 1064.13 points, a 9.98% increase [2][12] Related News - On December 17, the head of the Mossad claimed that Iran still desired to build nuclear weapons, increasing the possibility of further conflict between the two countries [5][15]

Report Information - Report Type: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: December 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The spot SCFIS index has slightly rebounded and stabilized this week. Shipping companies continue to raise prices, boosting market sentiment. However, MSC's online price for early January is lower than its announced increase, dampening bullish sentiment. The main shipping companies have formed a trend of joint price increases, which will support the pre - Spring Festival price increase expectation. It's difficult to prove whether the EC2602 contract is overvalued in the short term, and short - selling is not cost - effective. Attention should be paid to the possible overvaluation of the off - season April contract and the positive spread trading opportunity between EC2602 and EC2604 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The SCFIS index has slightly rebounded and stabilized this week. Shipping companies are raising prices, but MSC's online price for early January is lower than the announced increase. The main shipping companies are jointly raising prices, supporting the pre - Spring Festival price increase expectation. It's hard to prove the overvaluation of EC2602 in the short term, and short - selling is not advisable. Attention should be paid to the possible overvaluation of the April contract and the positive spread trading opportunity between EC2602 and EC2604 [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Shipping Market**: From December 8 to 12, China's export container transport demand was generally stable. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index rose by 7.8% on December 12. European, Mediterranean, and North American routes saw price increases due to different factors. Many shipping companies, including MSC, CMA CGM, Maersk, and Hapag - Lloyd, announced price increases or surcharge adjustments [9][10]. - **Geopolitical News**: Trump plans to announce the second phase of the Gaza peace process before Christmas. There are ongoing military operations in Israel, and there are developments regarding the relationship between armed groups in Rafah and Hamas. There are also updates on Maersk's plan to resume Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's pardon application [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: On December 15, the SCFIS for the European route was 1510.56, up 0.1% from December 8, while the SCFIS for the US West route was 924.36, down 3.8% [12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures**: Trading data for EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 on December 17 are provided, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, and trading volume [6]. - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: Various charts show data such as container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders, and shipping prices [13][15][16][20]

Group 1: Futures Contract Information - EC2512 had a yesterday's closing price of 1649.1 with a decline of 0.27%, a basis of -165.5, a trading volume of 270, an open interest of 3731, and an open interest change of -82 [2] - EC2602 had a price of 1585.0 with an increase of 2.92%, a basis of -101.4, a trading volume of 27304, an open interest of 34222, and an open interest change of -786 [2] - EC2604 had a price of 1090.1 with an increase of 0.65%, a basis of 393.6, a trading volume of 2881, an open interest of 19129, and an open interest change of 132 [2] - EC2606 had a price of 1255.1 with an increase of 0.05%, a basis of 228.6, a trading volume of 178, an open interest of 2141, and an open interest change of -26 [2] - EC2608 had a price of 1385.6 with an increase of 0.40%, a basis of 98.1, a trading volume of 125, an open interest of 1549, and an open interest change of -28 [2] - EC2610 had a price of 1040.2 with a decline of 0.19%, a basis of 443.5, a trading volume of 297, an open interest of 3961, and an open interest change of 72 [2] Group 2: Spread Information - The EC2512 - 2504 spread was 559.0, compared to 561.5 the day before yesterday with a change of -11.4 [2] - The EC2512 - 2602 spread was 64.1, compared to 113.4 the day before yesterday with a change of -49.3 [2] - The EC2502 - 2604 spread was 401, compared to 457.0 the day before yesterday with a change of 37.9 [2] Group 3: Spot Index Information - The SCHIS index on 2025/12/1 was 1483.65, down 9.50% from the previous period [2] - The SCFI (European line) on 2025/11/28 was 1404 dollars/TEU, up 2.71% from the previous period [2] - The CCFI (European line) on 2025/11/28 was 1449.34 points, up 1.14% from the previous period [2] - The NCFI on 2025/11/28 was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period [2] Group 4: Market Analysis and Outlook - The December contract is moving towards the delivery logic, with P1 around 1550 points. P2 and P3 are对标 to the second - half of December cabin positions, and the price is expected to be stable with a slight increase [3] - The 02 contract has a neutral valuation, follows the spot price in the short - term, and there is a game for the peak - season height. Although high capacity limits the upside, there is no overly pessimistic expectation due to the late Spring Festival, strong cargo volume on the European line this year, and the 02 contract covering the freight rates from the second - half of January to the first ten days of February [3] - The 04 contract has limited short - term downside space, and attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities when it follows the near - month contracts to rise [3] Group 5: Recent Spot Market Situation - The price increase announcement in the first half of December failed. In Week 49, the average was 2360 dollars, equivalent to 1650 points on the futures market [4] - In Week 50, MSK's cabin opening price dropped to 2200 dollars, and other shipping companies followed suit. The current central price is 2270 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the futures market [4] - On Monday, YML reduced the price of two ships in Week 50 by 150 to 1750 dollars, while MSC increased it by 200 to 2600 dollars [4] - It is expected that shipping companies will announce price increases for January cabins in early December. MSK's opening price for Week 51 is 2400 dollars, a 200 - dollar increase from the previous period, equivalent to 1660 points on the futures market [4] - On Thursday, MSK issued a price - increase notice for January European lines, with the price rising to 3500 dollars [4]

Report Overview - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Report Date: December 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS index dropped again this week, indicating that the price increase at the end of November and in the first half of December by shipping companies fell short of expectations. Maersk's quotes are aggressive, suppressing the price - raising space of other airlines, and there is a possibility that other airlines may follow Maersk to cut prices for cargo. Given the late Spring Festival this year, the market may engage in incentive games for the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak. It's hard to prove whether the EC2602 contract is overvalued in the short term, and the cost - performance of short - selling is not high. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the off - season April contract being overvalued, and the positive spread opportunity between the EC2602 and EC2604 contracts [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The SCFIS index declined again this week, showing that the price increase implementation at the end of November and in the first half of December by shipping companies was below expectations. Taking the Shanghai - Rotterdam route as an example, Maersk's quotes were more aggressive, suppressing other airlines' price - raising space, and there was a risk of other airlines cutting prices [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Due to the late Spring Festival, it's difficult to prove the overvaluation of the EC2602 contract in the short term, and short - selling has low cost - performance. Attention should be paid to the overvaluation possibility of the April contract and the positive spread opportunity between the EC2602 and EC2604 contracts [8]. 2. Industry News - **Overall Market**: From November 24 to 28, the China export container transportation market was generally stable, with different routes showing differentiated trends. The comprehensive index rose slightly. On November 28, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1403.13 points, up 0.7% from the previous period [9]. - **European Routes**: The eurozone's November composite PMI was above the boom - bust line, but there was a split between the service and manufacturing sectors. The transportation demand was stable, and the spot market booking price rebounded after continuous declines. On November 28, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports rose 2.7% from the previous period [9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation was in sync with European routes, and the freight rate rebounded. On November 28, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports rose 8.6% from the previous period [9]. - **North American Routes**: The US labor market showed mixed signals, with initial jobless claims decreasing but continuing claims rising. The transportation demand was stable, and the freight rates of the US West and East routes showed different trends. On November 28, the freight rate to the US West decreased by 0.8% and that to the US East increased by 1.8% from the previous period [10]. - **Geopolitical News**: There were multiple geopolitical events related to the Israel - Hamas conflict, including cease - fire threats, military operations, and international responses [10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Spot Freight Prices - **SCFIS Index**: The SCFIS index for European routes decreased from 1639.37 on November 24 to 1483.65 on December 1, a decline of 9.5%. The SCFIS index for US West routes decreased from 1107.85 to 948.77, a decline of 14.4% [12]. 3.2 Futures Market Data - **Contract Details**: The report provided trading data for multiple contracts on December 4, including EC2512, EC2602, etc., showing information such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, and trading volume [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC2512 contract is moving towards the delivery logic, with P1 around 1550 points. P2 and P3 are对标 to the shipping space in the second half of December, and the expected trend is stable with a slight increase [3]. - The EC2602 contract has a neutral valuation, follows the spot price in the short - term, and there is a game for the peak - season price height. Although high shipping capacity limits the upside, there is no overly pessimistic expectation because the pre - Spring Festival concentrated shipment has not fully started, the cargo volume on the European route has been strong this year with obvious seasonal features, and the contract covers the freight rates from the second half of January to the first ten days of February, and the seasonal freight rate peak is usually 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival [3]. - The short - term downside space of the EC2604 contract is small, and it is still recommended to adopt the strategy of shorting on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Futures Contract Data - **EC2512**: Yesterday's closing price was 1653.5, up 1.22%, trading volume was 523, and open interest was 3813 with a decrease of 216 [2]. - **EC2602**: Yesterday's closing price was 1540.1, up 0.38%, trading volume was 22299, and open interest was 35008 with a decrease of 1354 [2]. - **EC2604**: Yesterday's closing price was 1083.1, up 1.03%, trading volume was 3303, and open interest was 18997 with a decrease of 156 [2]. - **EC2606**: Yesterday's closing price was 1254.5, up 1.73%, trading volume was 381, and open interest was 2167 with an increase of 13 [2]. - **EC2608**: Yesterday's closing price was 1380.1, up 0.38%, trading volume was 247, and open interest was 157 with a decrease of 18 [2]. - **EC2610**: Yesterday's closing price was 1042.2, up 0.95%, trading volume data was not clear, and open interest was 3889 with a decrease of 57 [2]. 3.2 Month - spread Data - **EC2512 - 2504**: The spread was 8.9, compared with 561.5 the previous day, 558.7 two days ago, and the weekly comparison was 46.8 [2]. - **EC2512 - 2602**: The spread was 14.0, compared with 99.4 the previous day, 144.2 two days ago, and the weekly comparison was - 83.1 [2]. - **EC2502 - 2604**: The spread was - 5.1, compared with 462.1 the previous day, 414.5 two days ago, and the weekly comparison was 129.9 [2]. 3.3 Index Data - **SCFIS (European Route)**: Updated on Mondays, as of December 1, 2025, it was 1483.65 points, down 9.50% from the previous period, and up 20.715% in the last period [2]. - **SCFI (European Route)**: As of November 28, 2025, it was 1404 dollars/TEU, up 2.71% from the previous period, and down 3.58% in the last period [2]. - **CCFI**: As of November 28, 2025, it was 1449.34 points, up 1.14% from the previous period, and up 2.09% in the last period [2]. - **NCFI**: As of November 28, 2025, it was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period, and down 2.83% in the last period [2]. 3.4 Recent European Route Shipping Information - In the first half of December, the price increase announcement failed. In Week 49, the average was 2360 US dollars, equivalent to 1650 points on the futures market. In Week 50, MSK's opening price dropped to 2200 US dollars, and other shipping companies followed suit. The current central price is 2270 US dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the futures market [4]. - YML reduced the price of two ships in Week 50 by 150 to 1750 US dollars, while MSC increased the price by 200 to 2600 US dollars [4]. - In the second half of December, MSC announced a price increase to 3500 US dollars, ONE to 2800 US dollars, and MSK's opening price was 2400 US dollars. It is expected that shipping companies will announce price increases for January shipping space in early December [4]. - MSK's opening quotation for Week 51 was 2400 US dollars, a 200 - dollar increase from the previous period, equivalent to 1660 points on the futures market [4]. - MSK added a new ship, MDV ELECTRA, on January 20, with unknown shipping capacity [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The implementation of the mainstream shipping companies' long - term contract season price increase fell short of expectations, and the EC market fluctuated at a low level after a sharp rise and fall. The market has different views on the future freight rate levels, and the freight rate trend in December is relatively volatile [8][17][158]. - The delivery volume of new container ships in October continued to decline, and the container shipping market is expected to face another peak of ship deliveries starting from next year. Attention should be paid to the subsequent ship schedule arrangements and deployments [53]. - The impact of US tariffs continues to affect global trade. Weak demand led to a decline in exports in October. However, Sino - US tariff negotiations have achieved results, and the two sides have mutually adjusted tariff measures, which has released a signal of easing bilateral economic and trade relations [127][146]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Foreword Summary - **Market Review**: In December, the traditional peak season arrived, and shipping companies' long - term contract cargo improved. However, due to the average cargo - booking situation in the spot market in the first half of December, most shipping companies lowered their quotes. The actual freight rates were mostly between 2000 - 2400 US dollars/FEU, lower than the initial price increase target of 3100 - 3200 US dollars/FEU. The market still has different views on the December freight rates [3][158]. - **Market Outlook**: From the fundamental perspective, the shipping volume from November to December is expected to gradually improve. In terms of supply, the average weekly capacity from Shanghai to the 5 Nordic ports in November/December is 262,300/272,200 TEU, and it will be 300,300 TEU in January 2026. The valuation center in December has shifted downwards, but there is still an expectation of price support in the second half of December and January. The 02 contract is still given a partial discount based on the spread with the 12 contract, but the spread between 12 - 2 is uncertain, depending on whether shipping companies still have price increase actions in the second half of December and January. Geopolitically, it is expected to be difficult to resume large - scale shipping before the Spring Festival, and the probability of resuming shipping from Asia to Europe may gradually increase after the Spring Festival, which will put pressure on the contracts after 04 [4][158][159]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the EC2602 contract, consider going long on dips and pay attention to the subsequent price increase actions of shipping companies and the improvement rhythm of cargo volume. Hold the 2 - 4 positive spread [6][159]. 3.2 Market Review The mainstream shipping companies' long - term contract season price increase implementation fell short of expectations. In November, the EC market first rose sharply due to the digestion of price increase sentiment, then fell back as shipping companies lowered their spot quotes, and finally dropped significantly at the end of November due to the larger - than - expected price cut in December [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Situation - **Differences in Cargo - Booking Situations in the Peak Season**: In November, the actual implementation of shipping companies' price increases was average, and the spot freight rates first rose slightly and then fell back. In December, although the long - term contract cargo improved, the spot cargo - booking situation was average, and some shipping companies lowered their quotes for the first half of December. The market still has different views on the freight rates in the second half of December and January [17]. - **Container New Ship Delivery Volume Continued to Decline in October**: In October, the global delivery of new container ships was 149,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 20.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.4%. The new order volume in October was 81,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 80.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 82.8%. It is expected that the container shipping market will face another peak of ship deliveries starting from next year [53]. - **US Tariffs Affected Global Trade and Caused a Decline in Exports in October**: In October, China's exports were 305.35 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%, mainly due to the high base in the same period last year and the impact of US tariffs on the global trade chain. Exports to the US continued to decline deeply, exports to the EU grew slowly, and exports to ASEAN maintained strong growth [127]. 3.4 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Future Outlook**: The freight rate trend in December is volatile, and the market has different views on the freight rates. The 12 - month valuation center has shifted downwards, but there is still an expectation of price support in the second half of December and January. Geopolitically, it is expected to be difficult to resume large - scale shipping before the Spring Festival, and the probability of resuming shipping from Asia to Europe may gradually increase after the Spring Festival, which will put pressure on the contracts after 04 [158][159]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the EC2602 contract, consider going long on dips and pay attention to the subsequent price increase actions of shipping companies and the improvement rhythm of cargo volume. Hold the 2 - 4 positive spread [6][159].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the futures market declined significantly due to the near - end price and resumption of shipping expectations. The EC2512 contract is moving towards the delivery logic and follows the spot price, with an expected range of around 1550 - 1600 points. Contracts P2 and P3 are related to the second - half of December cabin space, and the freight rate is expected to be stable with a slight increase [3]. - The EC2602 contract has a low valuation. The key to going long is to wait for the signal of cargo volume explosion. There is no overly pessimistic expectation because the cargo volume on the European route has been good this year, and the price cut in December for inventory stocking is beneficial for the price increase in January. If the peak season is realized later, the EC2602 contract may have more upside potential [3]. - The EC2604 contract is still recommended to be shorted on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Data | Contract | Yesterday's Price | Change | Yesterday's Volume | Yesterday's Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2512 | 1612.9 | - 0.59% | 1493 | 5232 | - 302 | | EC2602 | 1387.7 | 0.02% | 24978 | 42968 | - 1089 | | EC2604 | 1054.6 | - 1.64% | 566 | 18701 | 703 | | EC2606 | 1190.1 | - 4.94% | 719 | 2186 | 200 | | EC2608 | 1310.8 | - 5.43% | 433 | 1650 | 32 | | EC2610 | 1012.2 | - 4.13% | 1174 | 3700 | 611 | [2] Month - spread Data | Month - spread | Previous Day | Two Days Ago | Three Days Ago | Day - on - Day Change | Week - on - Week Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2512 - 2504 | 558.3 | 550.2 | 523.6 | 8.1 | - 42.3 | | EC2512 - 2602 | 225.2 | 235.0 | 196.5 | - 9.8 | 102.0 | | EC2502 - 2604 | 333.1 | 315.2 | 327.1 | 17.9 | - 144.3 | [2] Index Data | Index | Update Frequency | Announcement Date | Unit | Current Value | Previous Value | Two Periods Ago | Current Change | Previous Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS (European Route) | Weekly | 2025/11/24 | Points | 1639.37 | 1357.67 | 1504.80 | 20.75% | - 9.78% | | SCFI (European Route) | Weekly | 2025/11/21 | USD/TEU | 1367 | 1417 | 1323 | - 3.55% | 7.11% | | CCFI | Weekly | 2025/11/21 | Points | 1432.96 | 1403.64 | 1366.85 | 2.09% | 2.69% | | NCFI | Weekly | 2025/11/21 | Points | 951.65 | 979.34 | 911.73 | - 2.83% | 7.42% | [2] Recent European Route Spot Situation - Week 49: The offline quotes of GEMINI and PA alliances are between 2300 - 2500, and OA is between 2300 - 2600, with an average of about 2400 US dollars (equivalent to about 1650 points on the futures market) [4]. - Week 50: Maersk opened at 2200 US dollars, PA dropped to 1900 - 2200, and OA remained at 2400 - 2500. The central price may be between 2200 - 2300 US dollars (1550 - 1600 points). On Thursday, YML cut the price to 1900, and ONE cut it to 2200 (with a combined volume of 2000 - 2100) [4]. Related News - On November 28, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry condemned the Israeli army for shooting and killing two Palestinians in the West Bank [5]. - On November 27, the Israeli army stated that it had attacked multiple Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon [5].

Group 1 - The European shipping index futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 1373.0 points and closing at 1402.6 points, reflecting a decrease of 6.61% [1] - The SCFIS (European Route) index reported a rise of 20.7% compared to the previous period, reaching 1639.37 points on November 24 [1] - Major shipping companies, including Maersk, have announced price reductions for December, with Maersk's opening price for the 50th week set at $1420/$2200, a decrease of $300 [1] Group 2 - According to Shenyin Wanguo Futures, the 02 contract for shipping is expected to see a gradual decline in its central price level, influenced by Maersk's aggressive pricing strategy and the market's expectations of peak season [2] - The latest opening prices for Maersk's AE1 route to Rotterdam were reported at $2200, which is unchanged from the second week of November, indicating a lack of upward price momentum [2] - Despite potential demand for shipping before the Chinese New Year, the limited capacity control by shipping companies for December and January may lead to a downward adjustment in the 02 contract's central price [2]