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建信期货集运指数日报-20251024
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 02:09
Report Overview - Report Type: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In October, being the traditional off - season with limited capacity control and supply pressure, the container shipping spot freight rates are continuously falling. However, shipping companies are raising rates for the second half of October and November in preparation for the year - end long - term contract season. Although the rate increase may not fully materialize, a bottom - up trend is likely to form, and the bottom of freight rates for the year may have been reached. The December contract has an opportunity for oversold recovery due to the Israel - Hamas conflict affecting the Red Sea route [8]. - The China export container shipping market continued its rebound this week. The overall transport demand was stable, and the freight rates on ocean routes increased, driving up the comprehensive index. China's exports in September showed positive growth, especially to the EU, which was the main growth driver in the export market [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Spot Freight Situation**: In October, the traditional off - season, with limited capacity control, the supply pressure remains, and the spot freight rates are falling. Shipping companies are raising rates for the second half of October and November. For example, Maersk's rates for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route increased. Although the rate increase may not fully materialize, the freight rates are likely to bottom out and recover. The December contract has an oversold recovery opportunity due to the Israel - Hamas conflict [8]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - **Market Rebound**: The China export container shipping market continued to rebound this week. The overall transport demand was stable, and the freight rates on ocean routes increased, driving up the comprehensive index. China's exports in September increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and the export growth rate to the EU reached 14.2% in September, a three - year high [9]. - **Route - specific Situations**: - **European Routes**: The transport demand was stable, and the spot market booking prices continued to rebound. The Shanghai - Europe basic port market freight rate on October 17 increased by 7.2% compared to the previous period [9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation was similar to that of European routes, and the freight rates continued to rise. The Shanghai - Mediterranean basic port market freight rate on October 17 increased by 3.5% compared to the previous period [9]. - **North American Routes**: China's exports to the US decreased by 27% in September, with six consecutive months of negative growth since April. However, the transport demand was relatively stable this week, and the spot market booking prices rebounded from the low level. The Shanghai - US West and US East basic port market freight rates on October 17 increased by 31.9% and 16.4% respectively compared to the previous period [10]. - **Israel - Hamas Conflict**: There was a new conflict between Israel and Hamas. Israel is accelerating the resumption of full - scale military operations, and the Red Sea route is unlikely to resume navigation this year [10]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index for European routes on October 20 was 1140.38, up 10.5% from October 13. - The index for US West routes on October 20 was 863.46, up 0.1% from October 13 [12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Quotes**: The trading data of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, and EC2608 contracts on October 23, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change, are provided [6]. - **Shipping - related Data Charts**: Charts of Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping European route futures main and sub - main contracts, European container ship capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - European basic port freight rate, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rate are provided [13][16][17][21]
建信期货集运指数日报-20251023
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 05:23
Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: October 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In October, it is the traditional off - season, with limited capacity control and persistent supply pressure, causing the current spot freight rates to decline. However, shipping companies are raising prices for the second half of October and November to support prices for the year - end long - term contract season. The freight rates are likely to form a bottom - out and rebound trend, and the bottom of the freight rates for the year may have emerged. Also, due to the renewed conflict between Israel and Hamas, the Red Sea is unlikely to resume navigation this year, and there is an opportunity for the December contract to recover from over - decline [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The current spot freight rates are falling due to the traditional off - season in October and limited capacity control. Shipping companies are raising prices for the second half of October and November. For example, Maersk's large container rates for the second half of October on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route reach up to $1911, and $2350 in the first week of November. Although the price increase may not fully materialize, the freight rates are likely to bottom out. The December contract has an over - decline recovery opportunity because of the Israel - Hamas conflict and the unlikelihood of Red Sea resumption this year [8] 2. Industry News - The China Export Container Shipping Market continued its rebound this week. In September, China's exports in US dollars increased by 8.3% year - on - year. On October 17, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index rose by 12.9% from the previous period. For European routes, China's exports to the EU in September increased by 14.2% year - on - year, and the freight rate on October 17 rose by 7.2%. For Mediterranean routes, the market situation was similar to that of European routes, with the freight rate rising by 3.5%. For North American routes, China's exports to the US decreased by 27% in September, but the spot booking prices rebounded, with the freight rates to the US West and East rising by 31.9% and 16.4% respectively. There was a new conflict between Israel and Hamas, and the US warned that Hamas's attacks might violate the cease - fire agreement [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - From October 13 to October 20, 2025, the SCFIS for European routes increased from 1031.8 to 1140.38, a rise of 10.5%. The SCFIS for US West routes increased from 862.48 to 863.46, a rise of 0.1% [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market - Data on the trading of container shipping European routes futures contracts on October 22 are provided, including opening prices, closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, open interests, and changes in open interests for different contracts such as EC2510, EC2512, etc. [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - There are charts showing European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][21]
建信期货集运指数日报-20251022
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 03:25
研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 22 日 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - #summary# 每日报告 | | | 表1:集运欧线期货10月21日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 (%) | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2510 | 1,102.6 | 1,129.0 | 1,135.0 | 1, ...
建信期货集运指数日报-20251021
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 02:30
日期 2025 年 10 月 21 日 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 宏观金融团队 行业 集运指数日报 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | | | 表1:集运欧线期货10月20日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 (%) | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2510 | 1,098.8 | 1,107.8 | 1,100.1 | 1,102.6 | 1.3 | 0. ...
建信期货集运指数日报-20251015
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 02:26
行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 15 日 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | | | 表1:集运欧线期货10月14日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 (%) | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2510 | 1,133.1 | 1,135.0 | 1,136.2 | 1,134.4 | 3.1 | 0.27 | 4897 | 13155 | -2993 | | EC2512 | 1,559.4 | 1,558.0 | 1,674.1 | 1,639.0 | 114.7 | 7.36 | 46708 | 27191 | -1580 | | EC2602 | 1,358.0 | 1,360.0 | 1,464.4 | 1,416.6 | 106.4 | 7.84 | 10299 | 9710 | 334 | | EC2604 | 1,09 ...
建信期货集运指数日报-20251014
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 02:09
行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 14 日 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 当日行情: 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | | | 表1:集运欧线期货10月13日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 (%) | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2510 | 1,125.5 | 1,129.9 | 1,129.4 | 1,133.1 | 3. ...
建信期货集运指数日报-20251013
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 02:57
Report Information - Report Type: Daily Report on Container Shipping Index [18] - Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The 9 - 10 month period is a traditional off - season, with limited capacity regulation and persistent supply pressure, leading to a continuous decline in spot freight rates. However, shipping companies are raising freight rates for the second half of October in preparation for the year - end long - term contract season, and a bottoming - out and recovery trend is likely to form. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas has impacted the market, but there is uncertainty about its implementation and whether it can promote the resumption of Red Sea shipping, presenting potential opportunities for an oversold rebound [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The current freight rate spot is continuously falling due to the traditional off - season and supply pressure. Shipping companies are raising rates for the second half of October, and a recovery trend may form. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas impacts the market, with uncertainty about its implementation and Red Sea resumption, and there may be oversold repair opportunities [8] 2. Industry News - From September 22 to 26, China's export container transport demand weakened, and the comprehensive index continued to decline. European, Mediterranean, and North American routes all saw a decline in freight rates. A cease - fire agreement was announced by Hamas, but there are contradictions in reports, and there are still major differences between Israel and Hamas. Negotiations are ongoing, and the Houthi armed forces launched suicide drones at Israel [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - From September 29 to October 6, 2025, the SCFIS for the European route decreased from 1120.49 to 1046.5, a decline of 6.6%. The SCFIS for the US West route decreased from 921.25 to 876.82, a decline of 4.8% [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - The report provides the trading data of container shipping European line futures on October 10, including the opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc. of different contracts such as EC2510, EC2512 [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report includes charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][19]
集运早报-20250923
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 00:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market opened high and moved low on Monday. In the morning, it might have been trading on the price support in mid - October (CMA price increase) and the suspension of the China - Europe Railway Express (with limited actual impact), and then the decline was likely affected by the falling spot prices. The basis for October was around 60 points, and the spread between October and December was - 560 (-20) [1]. - The price is still falling in early October. There is an expected price increase in late October, but under the suppression of the off - season, the expectation may not be well - realized, and it is more likely to stabilize. In the medium term, there are multiple upward drivers [1]. - The valuation of the December contract is not low. The 02 contract may have a higher cost - performance ratio for long - allocation than the December contract because the Spring Festival in 2026 is relatively late (February 17, 2026), and the settlement price of the 02 contract may be higher. The current valuation of the 04 contract is also high, and as an off - season contract, it is more suitable for short - allocation in the short term, but its low liquidity may make it vulnerable to fluctuations. Therefore, the long - 02 and short - 04 spread trading can be considered. In addition, attention should be paid to the fluctuations caused by pre - holiday position reduction, and the risk of capital position transfer for the October contract with a large number of open positions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Information - **Futures Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 1093.7, 1653.9, 1573.6, 1275.0, and 1454.5 respectively, with changes of 4.11%, 1.47%, 0.71%, 2.00%, and 1.07%. The open interest of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 was 46030 (-1685), 21956 (-124), 7398 (122), 8922 (81), and 0 (-33) respectively [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602 were - 560.2 and 80.3 respectively, with month - on - month changes of 19.3 and 12.8, and week - on - week changes of - 56.1 and - 21.4 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Information - **Spot Freight Indexes**: The SCHIC SCFI (European line) was 1440.24 dollars/TEU on September 15 and 1052 dollars/TEU on September 19, with decreases of 8.06% and 8.84% compared to the previous period. The CCFI was 1470.97 points on September 19, a decrease of 4.31% from the previous period. The NCFI was 673.61 points on September 19, a decrease of 7.65% from the previous period [1]. 3.3 Recent European Line Quotation Information - **Week 39 (End of September)**: The average quotation was 1600 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). MSK's quotation was initially 1500 US dollars and then rose to 1570 US dollars. The PA Alliance's quotation was 1550 - 1600 US dollars, and the OA Alliance's was 1600 - 1720 US dollars [2]. - **Weeks 40 - 41 (Early October)**: The average quotation was 1450 US dollars (equivalent to 1030 points on the futures market). MSK's quotation was 1400 US dollars, the PA Alliance's was 1300 - 1500 US dollars (YML's 1300 US dollars was the lowest of the year), and the OA Alliance's was 1400 - 1600 US dollars [2]. - **Monday Changes**: OOCL's price dropped 50 to 1400 US dollars, and MSC's dropped 100 to 1490 US dollars. HPL - SPOT quoted 1435 for early October, 2035 for late October, and 2525 for November (HPL - SPOT's quotations usually fluctuate greatly and have limited reference value) [2]. 3.4 Related News - As of September 22, 2025, 157 out of 193 UN member states had recognized the State of Palestine. Israel stated that its war goal "is not limited to Gaza", and the rift in the Western world's consensus on Israel's policy was gradually widening [3].
集运指数日报-20250919
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 05:49
Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: September 19, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS has fallen below 1500 points for nine consecutive weeks, and online quotes in the second half of September have been further reduced. The decline in freight rates shows characteristics of a smooth downward trend in the off - season, and the decline has further expanded. There is a low - long opportunity in the December contract, and the October contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the SCFIS dropped below 1500 points for nine consecutive weeks. Online quotes in the second half of September were further reduced, with the lowest price breaking through $1600 per 40 - foot container. The price of major shipping companies showed a smooth downward trend in the off - season, and the decline expanded. The current empty - sailing scale is not significantly higher than last year, while the overall shipping capacity has increased. There may be an opportunity to go long in the December contract, and the October contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8]. 2. Industry News - From September 8th to 12th, the China Export Container Shipping Market was basically stable, with freight rates falling on most routes, dragging down the comprehensive index. In August, China's exports increased by 4.4% year - on - year. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on September 12th was 1398.11 points, down 3.2% from the previous period. In the European route, China's exports to Europe increased by 10.4% year - on - year in August, and the trade volume with the EU in the first eight months increased by 4.3% year - on - year. In the Mediterranean route, the spot booking price continued to decline. In the North American route, the US employment market slowed down significantly, and China's exports to the US decreased by more than 30% year - on - year in August, but the market freight rates continued to rise. The Middle East situation has become tense again [9][10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Route | 2025/9/15 | 2025/9/8 | Change | MoM (%) | |--|--|--|--|--| | SCFIS: European Route (Base Ports) | 1440.24 | 1566.46 | - 126.22 | - 8.1% | | SCFIS: US West Route (Base Ports) | 1349.84 | 980.48 | 369.36 | 37.7% | [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Trading data of container shipping European line futures on September 18th are provided, including contract details such as EC2510, EC2512, etc., with information on previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Charts include the container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European base port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][19]
集运指数日报-20250918
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 03:02
Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the SCFIS dropped below 1500 points for nine consecutive weeks. Online quotes in the second half of September were further reduced, with the lowest price falling below $1600 per 40 - foot container. The price shows a smooth downward trend in the off - season with an increasing decline. There is currently no significant increase in blank sailings compared to last year, while the overall shipping capacity has increased. There may be low - buying opportunities in December, and the October contract is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Condition**: The SCFIS has been falling for nine consecutive weeks, dropping below 1500 points. Online quotes in the second half of September were further reduced, with large - container quotes from shipping companies showing a downward trend. For example, Maersk's quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in the third and fourth weeks of September were $1669/GP and $1590/GP respectively, about $400 lower than in the first half of the month, and OOCL's quotes in the second half of the month were $1600 - 1700/GP, about $200 lower than before [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: As the current blank - sailing scale is not significantly higher than last year and the overall shipping capacity has increased, attention should be paid to whether blank - sailing efforts will be increased later to support the freight rate bottom. The tense situation in the Middle East may support far - month contracts. There may be low - buying opportunities in December, and the October contract is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **China's Export Container Shipping Market**: From September 8 to 12, the China Export Container Shipping Market was generally stable, with freight rates falling on most routes, dragging down the composite index. In August, China's exports increased by 4.4% year - on - year in US dollars, showing the resilience and vitality of China's foreign trade. On September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Composite Freight Index was 1398.11 points, down 3.2% from the previous period [9]. - **European Routes**: In August, China's exports to Europe increased by 10.4% year - on - year, and the trade volume between China and the EU in the first eight months increased by 4.3% year - on - year, accounting for 13.1% of China's total foreign trade. However, this week, there was no further growth in transportation demand, and the market freight rate continued to adjust. On September 12, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic European ports was $1154/TEU, down 12.2% from the previous period [9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation was similar to that of European routes, with spot booking prices continuing to decline. On September 12, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic Mediterranean ports was $1738/TEU, down 11.8% from the previous period [9][10]. - **North American Routes**: In August, the US non - farm sector added 22,000 jobs, far lower than market expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since 2021. China's exports to the US in August decreased by more than 30% year - on - year. However, this week, transportation demand remained stable, driving the market freight rate up. On September 12, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to basic ports in the US West and East were $2370/FEU and $3307/FEU respectively, up 8.3% and 7.6% from the previous period [10]. - **Middle East Tension**: Since September 8, the situation in the Middle East has become tense again. Israel has increased its attacks on the Gaza Strip, and there have been a series of attacks and counter - attacks. The tense situation may support far - month container shipping contracts [10]. 3.3 Data Overview 3.3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - **SCFIS for European Routes**: On September 15, 2025, the SCFIS for European routes was 1440.24 points, down 126.22 points (- 8.1%) from September 8 [12]. - **SCFIS for US West Routes**: On September 15, 2025, the SCFIS for US West routes was 1349.84 points, up 369.36 points (37.7%) from September 8 [12]. 3.3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market - **Futures Trading Data**: On September 17, for contracts such as EC2510, EC2512, etc., there were different changes in prices, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, the EC2510 contract had a closing price of 1109.7, a drop of 79.9 points (- 6.72%), with a trading volume of 43,546 and an open interest of 49,609, an increase of 2092 [6]. 3.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping futures contract trends, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai - Europe freight rates, etc., to visually display relevant data [13][17][19]