另存为PDF 生猪日报 | 2025-06-10 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、6月9日，生猪注册仓单475手； 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月受现货价格下跌和后续出栏量 或继续增加预期影响震荡偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日减仓1258手，持仓约7.86万手，最高价13505元/ 吨，最低价13350元/吨，收盘于13475元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2）二三季度需求对猪价的支撑偏弱，难以支持猪价有明显涨幅； 3）若6、7月出现集中大幅降重，猪价或出现新低； 4）虽然我们认为现货仍有新低可能，但由于其不确定性较高，且现下降重实则 利好09合约，故认为09合约价格暂处于相对合理区间，建议暂时观望。 作者： 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑 ...

Price Overview - On May 30, the spot price of 1 tin ingot in Shanghai was quoted at 251,500.00 CNY/ton, which is a premium of 1,200.00 CNY/ton over the futures main price of 250,300.00 CNY/ton [1] - The national tin price list on May 30 shows various market prices for 1 tin ingot, with quotes ranging from 251,500 CNY/ton in Guangdong to 252,750 CNY/ton in Shanghai [2] Futures Market - On May 30, the closing price of the Shanghai tin futures main contract was 250,300.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline of 2.87%. The highest price reached was 257,600.00 CNY/ton, while the lowest was 250,000.00 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 149,442 contracts [2] Production and Inventory - In May 2025, China's refined tin production decreased by 2.37% month-on-month and by 11.24% year-on-year [3] - As of May 30, the inventory of Shanghai tin futures recorded 8,107.00 tons, a decrease of 338.00 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - According to New Lake Futures research, current consumption shows some elasticity, supported by solid basic consumption in key end markets and strong performance in the new energy vehicle sector. However, sensitivity to price changes is high, and the white goods and consumer electronics markets are entering a low season, leading to insufficient overall consumption momentum [5] - There is an expectation of increased overseas mineral supply, but it is currently difficult to transmit this to domestic smelters, which are maintaining low operating rates. Domestic inventory levels are neutral, while overseas inventories are low. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, suggesting that tin prices may experience a period of adjustment [5]

2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月受后续出栏量或增加影响震荡 偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日减仓663手，持仓约7.87万手，最高价13730元/ 吨，最低价13665元/吨，收盘于13690元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 生猪日报 | 2025-05-21 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、5月20日，生猪注册仓单678手； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①冻品库存仍有增加的空间，能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供 需不像空头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐 进入生猪消费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点：短期猪价或震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced a new round of fuel price adjustments, with retail prices for gasoline and diesel decreasing by 230 yuan and 220 yuan per ton respectively, effective from May 19, 2023 [1][3]. Price Adjustments - The average price reductions for fuel are as follows: 92-octane gasoline down by 0.18 yuan per liter, 95-octane gasoline down by 0.19 yuan per liter, and 0-octane diesel down by 0.19 yuan per liter [3]. - Filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will save approximately 9 yuan [3]. International Oil Price Trends - During the adjustment period from April 30 to May 18, international oil prices experienced fluctuations, initially declining before rising again, with the average price lower than the previous adjustment period [1][4]. - Brent crude oil prices fell to a yearly low of around 60 USD per barrel before rebounding to approximately 67 USD per barrel [4]. - Factors influencing these price movements include concerns over oversupply, geopolitical tensions, and changes in the international economic environment [4]. Future Outlook - The NDRC's price monitoring center anticipates that international oil prices will maintain a volatile adjustment trend in the short term due to ongoing geopolitical developments and supply chain stability issues [5]. - The International Energy Agency's May report indicates that global oil supply growth will significantly outpace demand growth, predicting an increase in oil inventories by 720,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 930,000 barrels per day in 2026 [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated and adjusted, with a weekly decline of 0.29% and an amplitude of 2.64%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 259,540 yuan/ton [4]. - Macroscopically, the bilateral trade agreement between the US and the UK eased market tensions, the US dollar index rose, and China is improving the long - term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major national projects and will launch high - quality projects worth about 3 trillion yuan this year [4]. - Fundamentally, the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and Congo is progressing, which helps relieve the shortage of tin ore. However, in the smelting sector, production in Yunnan and Jiangxi is restricted. In the demand sector, the orders of solder processing enterprises are stable, and the operating rate of tin - plated sheet enterprises is stable, but there is no obvious increase in demand. The domestic inventory has continued to decline recently [4]. - Technically, the trading is light with low positions. It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the range of 255,000 - 265,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated and adjusted this week, with a weekly decline of 0.29% and an amplitude of 2.64%. The closing price of the main contract was 259,540 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - aspect**: Abroad, the US - UK trade agreement eased market tensions, the pound reversed its upward trend after the Bank of England's interest - rate cut, and the US dollar index rose. Domestically, China is improving the long - term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major national projects and will launch high - quality projects worth about 3 trillion yuan this year [4]. - **Fundamental - aspect**: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and Congo is progressing, which helps relieve the shortage of tin ore. In the smelting sector, Yunnan is facing raw - material pressure, and Jiangxi is restricted by scrap supply, resulting in reduced production. In the demand sector, the orders of solder processing enterprises are stable, and the operating rate of tin - plated sheet enterprises is stable, but there is no obvious increase in demand. The domestic inventory has continued to decline recently [4]. - **Technical - aspect**: The trading is light with low positions. Focus on the competition around MA10. It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate within a range [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the range of 255,000 - 265,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of May 9, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 259,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,090 yuan/ton or 0.8% from April 29. As of May 8, 2025, the closing price of LME tin was 31,877 US dollars/ton, an increase of 529 US dollars/ton or 1.69% from May 1 [7][10]. - **Price Ratio**: As of May 9, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange tin to nickel was 2.12, an increase of 0.01 from April 29. As of May 8, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 8.19, a decrease of 0.08 from April 30 [15]. - **Position**: As of May 9, 2025, the position of Shanghai tin was 56,313 lots, an increase of 184 lots or 0.33% from April 29. As of a certain time, the net position of the top 20 was 1,510 lots, an increase of 773 lots from April 30, 2025 [18]. 3.3 Industrial Chain - **Supply - side** - **Tin Ore Import**: In March 2025, the monthly import of tin ore concentrates was 8,322.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 63.94%. From January to March, the cumulative import was 26,908.88 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 55.41% [23]. - **Refined Tin Production**: In April 2025, the refined tin production was 15,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%. From January to February, the cumulative production was 29,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.97% [24]. - **Tin Ore Processing Fee**: On April 23, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 7,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,500 yuan/ton or 16.67% from April 3. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 11,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,500 yuan/ton or 11.54% from April 3 [28]. - **Refined Tin Import and Export**: As of May 8, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 16,983.01 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,075.05 yuan/ton or 15.33% from April 28. In March 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 2,100.63 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 146.52%. From January to March, the cumulative import was 7,155.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.87%. In March 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1,672.75 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.51% and a year - on - year increase of 12.19%. From January to March, the cumulative export was 6,240.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 76.78% [34]. - **Inventory**: As of May 8, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 2,755 tons, unchanged from April 30. As of April 30, 2025, the total tin inventory was 8,909 tons, a decrease of 340 tons or 3.68% from the previous week. As of May 9, 2025, the tin futures inventory was 8,402 tons, a decrease of 204 tons or 2.37% from April 29 [40]. - **Demand - side** - **Semiconductor Index**: On May 8, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 4,430.44, an increase of 182.78 or 4.3% from May 1. From January to March 2025, the integrated circuit production was 10,946,586.3 million pieces, an increase of 1,136,586.3 million pieces or 11.59% from the same period last year [43]. - **Tin - plated Sheet**: As of March 2025, the tin - plated sheet production was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons or 10% from February. The export volume of tin - plated sheets was 169,082.83 tons, an increase of 31,991.04 tons or 23.34% from February [46].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced slight fluctuations, closing with a small increase, primarily driven by banking and insurance stocks [1] - The index is currently in a state of horizontal oscillation, with recent trading indicating a consolidation around a central point, specifically around the level of 3284 [1] - The market is characterized by an unclear direction, referred to as a "medium bearish" state, indicating indecision among investors [1] Group 2 - The Shenzhen Component Index closed with a bearish candlestick, forming a small top formation, suggesting a potential return to the central oscillation range [2] - The oscillation range for the Shenzhen index is more clearly defined compared to the Shanghai index, indicating a familiar trading pattern for investors [2] - The focus for investors should shift from index performance to selecting individual stocks with potential opportunities [2]