Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, both the domestic and international sugar markets declined, with international raw sugar approaching its previous low level. The futures main contract 01 has fallen to the 5500 mark, showing short - term support and potential for a rebound [4][5]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors are the increase in global sugar production, an expected global supply surplus in the new year, the opening of the import profit window due to the price of foreign sugar being below 16 cents per pound, and increased import impact [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - This week, both domestic and international sugar markets declined, with international raw sugar approaching its previous low level. ISO expects a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab predicts a sugar production of 40.6 million tons in the south - central region of Brazil in the 25/26 season, a 3.1% decrease from the previous estimate. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons [4]. 2. Daily Prompt - International raw sugar has fallen below the 16 - cent mark, and domestic Zhengzhou sugar has followed the downward trend. The domestic consumption peak season has passed, the market has seen a significant increase in low - priced imported sugar, and the spot price has declined [5]. 3. Today's Focus - No relevant information provided 4. Fundamental Data - Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. Czarnikow predicts a global sugar market surplus of 7.5 million tons, Dataro expects a surplus of 1.53 million tons, StoneX adjusts the surplus downward by 700,000 tons to 3.04 million tons, Green Pool forecasts a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 million tons, and USDA expects a 4.7% year - on - year increase in global sugar production, a 1.4% increase in consumption, and a surplus of 11.397 million tons. ISO's forecast of the supply deficit has significantly decreased [8]. - The China Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet shows that in the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [36]. 5. Position Data - No relevant information provided

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The international raw sugar is oscillating downward, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar is following the weak trend. The domestic consumption peak season has passed, the low - price imported sugar in the market has increased significantly, and the spot price has declined. The futures main contract 01 has fallen below 5600, showing a short - term weak oscillation trend [6][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review The report does not contain relevant content. 3.2 Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton global sugar supply gap in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern 25/26 sugar production at 4.06 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous estimate. As of the end of July 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons [5]. - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 5990, with a basis of 428 (for the 01 contract), showing a premium over futures [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.61 million tons [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average. The main contract's position is bearish, with a net short position decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [6]. - **Expected Factors**: Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors are the increase in global sugar production, a global supply surplus in the new season, the foreign sugar price below 17 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window, which increases import pressure [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus The report does not contain relevant content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecasts**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand balance. Green Pool predicts a 2.7 - million - ton surplus, USDA predicts a 11.397 - million - ton surplus, Czarnikow predicts a 7.8 - million - ton surplus, and Datagro predicts a 2.58 - million - ton surplus [35]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, China's sugar production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, and consumption is 15.9 million tons, with a balance change of 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37]. - **Imported Raw Sugar Processing Cost**: The cost of imported raw sugar processed and taxed (50% tariff) has been decreasing. In July 2025, with an ICE raw sugar average price of 16.35 cents per pound, the refined tax - included cost was 5600 - 5650 yuan per ton [44]. 3.5 Position Data The report does not contain relevant content.

Group 1 - Recent domestic sugar prices have rebounded slightly, with prices in Guangxi increasing by 60 yuan/ton from a low of 5900 yuan/ton, but failing to break the key level of 6000 yuan/ton [1] - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays are expected to provide some support for sugar prices, although actual demand remains to be observed [1][2] - Seasonal demand is driving trade activities, with traders replenishing stocks and food processing companies purchasing raw materials, leading to a slight recovery in sugar prices [2] Group 2 - Brazil's sugar production remains high, with a cumulative production of 19.268 million tons reported for the second half of July, a decrease of 7.76% compared to the same period last year [3] - Despite the decrease, there are concerns about potential downward adjustments in production due to lower sugarcane yields and ATR in Brazil's central-southern region [3] - The sugar production ratio in Brazil reached a historical high of 52.06% by the end of July, indicating significant variability in sugar output [3] Group 3 - Domestic sugar imports have rapidly increased, with a total production of 11.16 million tons expected for the 2024/2025 season, an increase of nearly 1 million tons year-on-year [4] - Sugar imports from May to July showed significant year-on-year growth, with increases of 1650%, 1300%, and 76% respectively, effectively supplementing domestic demand for the holidays [4] - The upcoming new sugar production season is expected to exert downward pressure on sugar prices, as new production will be launched soon [4]