丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨石油化工 [Table_Title] 景气触底，结构分化——石油化工行业 2024 年 报及 2025 年一季报综述 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2024 年及 2025Q1，受地产基建承压及全球贸易摩擦等影响，油价中枢有所下跌，石化板块营 收及净利润均有所下滑，但行业景气度已接近历史底部。从子行业拆分上来看，盈利有所分化， 石油化工下游深加工、煤化工与气化工等板块均持续出现一定程度的正增长，需关注板块里的 结构性机会。经过分析，需持续重点关注：高质量增长+成长+高股息板块的相关投资机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 魏凯 侯彦飞 王岭峰 SAC：S0490520080009 SAC：S0490521050002 SAC：S0490521080001 SFC：BUT964 SFC：BVN517 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 石油化工 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 景气触底，结构分化——石油化工行业 2] 2024 年 报及 2025 年一季报综述 [Tab ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported FY24 performance with revenue of 326.475 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, and a net profit of 724 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.4% [1]. Financial Performance - FY24 revenue was 326.475 billion yuan, with a net profit of 724 million yuan, reflecting a 37.4% decline year-on-year [1]. - 4Q24 revenue was 81.279 billion yuan, down 5.6% year-on-year and 3.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a net loss of 152 million yuan [1]. - 1Q25 revenue was 74.975 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.5% year-on-year and 7.8% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit was 588 million yuan, an increase of 6.5% year-on-year [1]. - Zhejiang Petrochemical achieved a net profit of 3.54 billion yuan in FY24, up 159% year-on-year, and 1.27 billion yuan in 1Q25, a 1% increase year-on-year [1]. - CNOOC Petrochemical reported a loss of 1.249 billion yuan in FY24, with PTA and bottle chips losses of approximately 260 million yuan [1]. Industry Trends - In 1Q25, costs significantly decreased, with coal prices dropping from 765 yuan/ton to 652 yuan/ton, benefiting the company's cost structure [2]. - The price differentials for downstream products like olefins remained strong, while PX and pure benzene price differentials continued to decline [2]. - The company is focusing on high-end materials and expanding its product offerings, including the production of α-olefins and rare earth rubber [2]. - The average Brent crude oil price decreased to 66.6 USD/barrel in 2Q25, which is expected to improve chemical product profitability in 3Q25 and beyond [2]. Investor Returns - The company has shown commitment to investor returns, with a total of approximately 1.693 billion yuan in share buybacks in 2024 and an ongoing buyback plan of 1-2 billion yuan in 2025 [3]. - In 2024, the company distributed cash dividends of 957 million yuan, accounting for 34% of distributable profits [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to lower-than-expected recovery in refining profits, the company has revised down its net profit forecasts for 2025-26 by 40.6% and 27.0% to 1.896 billion yuan and 4.922 billion yuan, respectively [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 43.7x for 2025 and 16.8x for 2026 [4]. - The target price has been adjusted down by 7.6% to 9.7 yuan, reflecting a potential upside of 18.4% from the current stock price [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the contrasting performance of the company in 2024 and Q1 2025, with a significant decline in 2024 followed by a remarkable profit surge in Q1 2025, primarily driven by subsidiaries [1][6] - In 2024, the company's total revenue decreased by 15.49% to 9.146 billion yuan, and net profit dropped by 34.78% to 148 million yuan, indicating challenges in core business operations [1][2] - The company's cash flow from operating activities turned negative, dropping from 221 million yuan in 2023 to -54.52 million yuan, reflecting insufficient cash generation from core operations [2][3] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, net profit surged by nearly 14,698%, reaching 67.38 million yuan, largely due to the performance of subsidiaries, which raises concerns about the sustainability of this growth [1][3] - The main revenue-generating products faced significant declines: platinum group metals revenue fell by 28.94%, rare earth materials by 13.95%, and infrared optical materials by 20.16%, while thin film materials saw a 46.53% increase [2][4] - The company achieved several technological breakthroughs, including advancements in high-purity metal targets and rare earth green extraction, but the low R&D expenditure relative to revenue (2.27%) poses a risk to maintaining its competitive edge [4][5] Group 3 - The company faces multiple challenges for future growth, including cyclical fluctuations in the semiconductor and rare earth industries, high competition from international giants, and uncertainty regarding the sustainability of subsidiary contributions [5][6] - Despite the strategic focus on four major sectors (electric, magnetic, optical, and medical), the company must navigate the risks associated with commodity price volatility and market competition [5][6] - The company's efforts in capacity expansion and industry chain integration are ongoing, but their effectiveness will require time to validate [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Huibei New Materials, reported a significant increase in revenue and profit in both its 2024 annual report and 2025 Q1 report, driven by strong market demand for its epoxy resin products, particularly in the wind power sector [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.04% [1] - The revenue from epoxy resin for wind turbine blades was 1.096 billion yuan, while new composite materials and electronic insulation epoxy resin generated revenues of 234 million yuan and 86 million yuan, reflecting increases of 32.84% and 13.96% respectively [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 493 million yuan, a remarkable year-on-year growth of 148%, and a net profit of 8.82 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [1][3]. Market Position and Product Development - Huibei New Materials is a leading player in the specialty modified epoxy resin sector, with a strong focus on wind power applications [2] - The company has established a solid customer base, including major domestic wind turbine manufacturers, and has received positive feedback for its products [2] - The company has expanded its product line to include various types of epoxy resins, which has contributed to steady revenue growth [3]. Industry Trends - The deep-sea wind power sector is expected to become a key growth area, with government initiatives promoting floating offshore wind projects [4] - China is projected to maintain its leadership in offshore wind power, with new installed capacity expected to exceed 4 GW in 2024, accounting for over 50% of the global market share [4] - The domestic wind power market is anticipated to reach new highs, with new installations expected to hit 110 GW to 120 GW in 2025 [4]. Capacity Expansion - The company is accelerating its capacity expansion to meet rising market demand, with a new factory in Zhuhai set to produce 82,000 tons of new electronic materials annually [5] - The Zhuhai project, with an investment of approximately 400 million yuan, will also introduce high-end LED packaging materials and functional high-purity solid epoxy resins [5] - The growth in demand for core products in wind power, electronic components, and transportation is expected to further enhance the company's growth potential [5].

很多投资者未曾想到，从化纤行业起家的荣盛石化（002493）（002493），会在短短数年，一跃成为全 球石油化工龙头之一。 作为中国民营炼化排头兵，创立30年来，荣盛石化始终坚守主业，不断做强实业，完成了织布—加弹— 切片纺—聚酯直纺—PTA—芳烃（PX）—炼油的多次产业链升级，打破日韩对芳烃、工程塑料等重要 大宗化工产品的长期垄断，逐个击破供给瓶颈，全产业链布局，实现"一滴油到世间万物"。如今，荣盛 石化位列"2024年全球化工企业100强"第8位、"2024年全球化工最具价值品牌榜"第6位。 作为荣盛石化旗下控股子公司，浙石化4000万吨级炼化一体化项目的建成投产，是公司发展历程中的关 键里程碑。该项目是浙江省深入贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署的一项重要工作，也是中国（浙江） 自由贸易试验区打造油品全产业链，落实"三基地一中心"发展战略的重要依托工程，是新时代的浙江工 业战线辟新路、开新局的龙头项目。从行业来看，它又是创建世界一流、引领高质量发展的先锋示范工 程，具有举足轻重的意义。 浙石化4000万吨级炼化一体化项目，于2017年7月开始打桩建设，一期、二期分别于2019年和2022年建 成投产。目前 ...

事件简介 4 月 4 日，因杜邦中国集团有限公司涉嫌违反《中华人民共和国反垄断法》，市场监管总局依法对杜邦中国集团有限公 司开展立案调查。 事件分析 风险提示 原材料剧烈波动风险，政策变动风险，产品激烈竞争风险等。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 杜邦的反垄断调查将成为行业的标志性事件，高端材料领域国产企业加速。近期的连续事件具有非常明显的行业标志 性，4 月 2 日美国宣布对所有贸易伙伴设立最低 10%的最低基准关税，对中国加征 34%的关税；4 月 4 日，国务院关税 税则委员会办公室宣布自 2025 年4 月 10 日对原产于美国的所有进口商品，在现行适用关税税率基础上加征 34%关税， 同时将 16 家美国实体列入出口管制管控名单，将 11 家美国企业列入不可靠实体清单等。在关税和反制关税发布的背 景下，杜邦的反垄断调查就更具有典型意义。我国是全球最大的化工产品市场，具有庞大的需求空间，伴随中国改革 开发，大批外资开始持续深耕中国市场，而近 20 年来，国内化工企业迅速崛起，已经能够形成大宗产品的充分自给， 并能够有效供给精细化工领域的中低端产品，较多海外企业难以维持有效的产品竞争力，转而在高端领域设立 ...