Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have surged to a historical high of $3,578 but have recently experienced significant volatility and a pullback as profit-taking occurs, with investors awaiting the upcoming non-farm payroll data for clues on Federal Reserve policy direction [1] - Initial jobless claims rose to 237,000, exceeding the expected 230,000, indicating a cooling labor market. This weak data reinforces expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, leading investors to adopt a cautious stance ahead of the non-farm report [1] - The ADP national employment report showed only 54,000 private sector jobs added in August, significantly below the market expectation of 65,000, with July's figure revised up to 106,000. These indicators suggest a gradual slowdown in the U.S. labor market, supporting gold's safe-haven demand while raising recession concerns [1] - Investors are focused on the upcoming U.S. non-farm employment report, which could directly influence the Federal Reserve's rate cut timeline and subsequently impact gold prices. Weak employment indicators strengthen rate cut expectations and support gold demand, but better-than-expected data could pressure gold prices [1] Technical Analysis - The hourly chart for gold (XAUUSD) shows a pattern of higher lows and higher highs, indicating a strong bullish trend. Recent profit-taking has led to a quick pullback, but the overall bullish trend remains intact. A breakout above resistance is anticipated following the non-farm data release [4] - The MACD indicator suggests that the bullish trend is dominant, with potential for a new upward movement if a bullish crossover signal occurs. The strategy recommends looking for support levels to enter long positions [4] Trading Strategy - For day trading, a long position is suggested around $3,528 with a stop loss at $3,515 and a target range of $3,545 to $3,600 [5] Silver Analysis - The hourly chart for silver (XAGUSD) indicates a similar bullish trend with higher lows and higher highs. Although there is a formation of a high-level consolidation pattern, the overall bullish trend remains unbroken as long as support levels hold [8] - The MACD indicator shows a low-level bullish crossover, suggesting a potential upward movement following the current adjustment. The strategy recommends entering long positions at key support levels [8] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases include U.K. Halifax house price index, U.K. retail sales, France's trade balance, Switzerland's consumer confidence index, Eurozone GDP revision, Eurozone employment figures, and U.S. employment statistics including unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls [9]

Group 1 - The gold market has attracted significant investor attention amid complex global economic and political conditions, with prices reaching a high of $3578.38 before a notable pullback [1] - Recent U.S. labor market data indicates a cooling trend, with July job additions at 73,000, the lowest in nine months, and August ADP report showing only 54,000 new jobs, below expectations [3] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have arisen due to actions by former President Trump, which could lead to increased inflation and a loss of the dollar's reserve currency status, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that the MACD indicator suggests strong bullish momentum, but the stochastic indicator indicates potential short-term pullback risks, with key support around the 5-day moving average [6] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is expected to significantly impact gold prices, with a poor performance likely to reinforce expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially pushing gold prices above recent highs [7] - If non-farm data exceeds expectations, it may temper rate cut predictions, strengthening the dollar and putting downward pressure on gold prices [7]

来源：智昇财论 【智昇研究】美国公布的疲软就业数据进一步强化了美联储本月降息的预期，推动金价连续七个交易日上涨，创下历史新高。这不仅仅是短期波 动，更是宏观经济压力与货币政策转向的综合体现。黄金价格的强势表现，不仅反映出投资者对美国劳动力市场的担忧，还凸显了全球贸易摩擦 和通胀风险的双重影响。现货黄金周三（9月3日）延续创纪录涨势，盘中最高曾触及3578美元/盎司附近，再度刷新历史记录高点，收报3558.93 美元/盎司，涨幅约0.72%，美联储官员的鸽派讲话也进一步提振美联储9月降息预期，给金价提供上涨动能。周四（9月4日）亚市早盘，现货黄金 高位震荡，目前交投于3557.84美元/盎司。 编辑 美国劳动力市场疲软信号频现 美国经济的引擎似乎正在失去动力。最新数据显示，7月份职位空缺数量锐减17.6万个，至718.1万个，创下自2024年9月以来的最低水平。这一降 幅超出市场预期，经济学家原本预计为737.8万个。职位空缺率的下滑至4.3%，进一步印证了劳动力需求放缓的趋势。 经济学家将这一恶化归咎于特朗普政府的进口关税政策和打击非法移民措施，这些举措不仅抬高了企业成本，还导致劳动力供应紧缩。 这一系列数据 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in gold prices, with spot gold nearing historical highs and a strong performance in gold futures, driven by expectations of a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][2][3] - As of the end of August, gold has accumulated a 30% increase year-to-date, making it one of the standout assets among major asset classes [2] - The A-share gold sector saw a collective rise of 8.82% on September 1, leading all industry sectors in the A-share market [2] Group 2 - Analysts attribute the continuous rise in gold prices to the strengthening market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, particularly following remarks from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell [2][3] - The dual factors of anticipated Fed rate cuts and inflation tolerance are identified as the main drivers for the increase in gold prices, as lower real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold [2][3] - Following the release of inflation data, the market reinforced expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to a notable increase in international gold prices [3] Group 3 - Global central banks are continuing to increase their gold holdings, contributing significantly to the demand side of the gold price increase [3] - Predictions for future gold prices remain optimistic, with institutions like UBS raising their target for gold prices to $3,700 per ounce by mid-2026, and Bank of America forecasting prices to reach $4,000 per ounce in the same timeframe [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: August 29, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Financial Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold is accumulating upward breakthrough momentum despite temporarily being blocked at the $3400/oz level, with the bottom of the phased correction since the end of June gradually rising. The volatility of gold has increased, but the medium - term upward trend remains good. London gold may trade in a wide range between $3120 - $3500/oz and then rise again. [4] - The price of silver with strong industrial attributes has been boosted by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the strong rebound of the Chinese stock market, and the London gold - silver ratio has returned to 87.5. [4] - The restructuring of the international trade currency system and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations continue to support the gold price, but the high price - to - earnings ratio also means significant volatility. The weak US employment market provides a necessary condition for the Fed to restart the interest - rate cut process, but rising inflation pressure may restrict the pace. [5] - Investors are advised to maintain a long - term view and participate in gold and silver trading with medium - to - low positions, avoiding full - position chasing and blind short - selling. [4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook Intraday Market - Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook has raised concerns about the loss of US fiscal and financial discipline. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the strong rebound of the Chinese stock market have boosted the price of silver. The gold - silver ratio in London has returned to 87.5. The new Trump 2.0 policy has greatly boosted the safe - haven demand for gold. London gold may trade in a wide range between $3120 - $3500/oz and then rise again. [4] Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been trading in a wide range between $3100 - $3500/oz. The restructuring of the international trade currency system and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations continue to support the gold price. It is expected that London gold will continue to trade in the range of $3120 - $3500/oz in the short term, with the bottom of the correction gradually rising since the end of June. [5] Domestic Precious Metals Market - The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 785.49, up 0.28%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9399, up 0.77%; Gold T + D closed at 779.97, up 0.30%; Silver T + D closed at 9330, up 0.75%. [5] 2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides six charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. [7] 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - New York Fed President Williams said that the Fed may cut interest rates at some point, but policymakers need to see economic data before deciding whether to cut rates at the September 16 - 17 meeting. Fed Governor Cook's lawsuit against Trump's dismissal may be filed as early as Wednesday. [8] - The EU will accelerate legislation to cancel tariffs on US industrial products this week. Mexico plans to raise tariffs on Chinese imports in its 2026 budget proposal next month. [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's concern about the loss of control over US fiscal and financial discipline has resurfaced. The Fed may restart the interest - rate cut process in September, with a relatively moderate pace. Gold's safe - haven demand is strongly boosted, and its volatility has increased while the medium - term upward trend remains intact. London gold is expected to trade in a wide range between $3120 - $3500 per ounce before rising again. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4]. - From late April to now, London gold has been trading in a wide range between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The reduction in international trade uncertainty weakens gold's safe - haven demand, but the restructuring of the international trade currency system and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations continue to support the gold price. The restructuring of the international trade currency system and the expected economic slowdown and central bank interest - rate cuts will support the long - and medium - term bull markets of gold. However, the high price and P/E ratio also mean increased volatility. In the short term, London gold will continue to consolidate in the $3120 - $3500 per ounce range. The central bank's easing expectations may support the silver price in the medium - to - short term. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and avoid full - position chasing or blind short - selling [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - Trump fired Fed Governor Cook on suspicion of mortgage law violations, and Cook vowed to fight back, which raised market concerns about the loss of control over US fiscal and financial discipline. The Fed may restart the interest - rate cut process in September, with a relatively moderate pace. London gold failed to break through the $3400 per ounce mark and then pulled back, but the support level in the pull - back is gradually rising. Trump's new policies are accelerating the restructuring of the global political and economic landscape, boosting gold's safe - haven demand. Gold's volatility has increased, and it is expected to trade in a wide range between $3120 - $3500 per ounce before rising again. This week, attention should be paid to Fed officials' statements, US July PCE prices, China's August PMI, and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - From late April to now, London gold has been trading in a wide range between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The reduction in international trade uncertainty weakens gold's safe - haven demand, but the restructuring of the international trade currency system and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations continue to support the gold price. In June, speculative funds flooded into the silver and platinum markets. In July, the silver price fluctuated significantly due to the expectation of anti - involution policies, and the London gold - silver ratio stabilized slightly after falling to 86. The restructuring of the international trade currency system and the expected economic slowdown and central bank interest - rate cuts will support the long - and medium - term bull markets of gold. However, the high price and P/E ratio also mean increased volatility. In the short term, London gold will continue to consolidate in the $3120 - $3500 per ounce range. The central bank's easing expectations may support the silver price in the medium - to - short term. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and avoid full - position chasing or blind short - selling [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T+D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Fed Governor Cook will sue to prevent Trump from firing her, which may lead to a long - term legal battle. Trump wants to quickly announce a candidate to replace Cook, with potential candidates including White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Milan and former World Bank President Malpass [17]. - US new orders for key capital goods in July increased more than expected, indicating strong business equipment spending at the beginning of the third quarter. However, consumers' assessment of the labor market has deteriorated, with the August consumer expectation for their job - seeking ability dropping to the lowest level in more than four years [17]. - Richmond Fed President Barkin predicts a moderate interest - rate adjustment, expecting no major changes in economic activity for the rest of the year [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices and the implications of U.S. inflation trends, suggesting that gold may serve as a safe haven amid economic uncertainties and rising inflation expectations [1][5][6]. Gold Market Analysis - On Wednesday, international spot gold opened at $3,315.16, reaching a high of $3,349.89 and a low of $3,311.19, closing at $3,347.95, marking an increase of $32.92 or 0.99% [1]. - The Wellxin precious metals index opened at 6,806.38 points, peaked at 6,907.01 points, and closed at 6,892.13 points, up 83.38 points or 1.22% [4]. - The article identifies a "super depressed repair" characteristic in gold prices, indicating a potential short-term buying opportunity as prices are expected to recover from recent declines [4][5]. U.S. Dollar and Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index opened at 98.28 points, with a high of 98.43 and a low of 98.07, closing at 98.22, down 0.05% [3]. - The Federal Reserve's recent minutes highlighted concerns over economic, employment, and real estate market declines, alongside rising inflation risks, which may enhance demand for gold as a safe haven [5][7]. Inflation Expectations - The Federal Reserve anticipates that tariffs will push inflation higher this year, with further upward pressure expected in 2026, and a return to 2% inflation projected for 2027 [6]. - The article suggests that a potential economic crisis could lead to a significant drop in demand, ultimately causing inflation to fall below 2% [6]. Technical Analysis - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring gold prices in relation to a mid-term strong convergence triangle trend line, suggesting that a breakout could occur soon [10]. - The analysis indicates that the current market conditions may lead to a significant upward movement in gold prices, especially if inflation continues to rise [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent statements from U.S. President Trump regarding the potential for peace in the Ukraine conflict may weaken the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to downward pressure on gold prices [2] - The current spot gold price is around $3317, reflecting a continuation of the downward trend from the previous day, influenced by a rising U.S. dollar index and positive developments in international talks [1] - The geopolitical situation creates a dual role for gold; while easing tensions may reduce its demand, any breakdown in negotiations or escalation in tariffs could reignite safe-haven buying, supporting gold prices [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are expected to remain volatile, with short-term resistance at the $3345 level and key support levels identified below [3] - The market is advised to focus on the $3330 level for potential buying opportunities, while monitoring the resistance at $3345 and $3358-$3360 for breakout scenarios [3] - A significant drop below the support levels of $3315 or $3300 could lead to further testing of these lower boundaries before any potential rebound [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: August 18, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Precious Metals Daily Report - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - Due to the US July PPI exceeding market expectations and officials' statements, market expectations for a 50BP Fed rate cut in September have cooled. London gold rose and then fell below $3350/oz. Trump's new policies boost gold's safe - haven demand. Gold volatility is rising, and the medium - term upward trend remains good. It may fluctuate between $3120 - $3500/oz before rising again. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view with low - to - medium positions [4]. - From late April to now, London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500/oz. Uncertainty in international trade has decreased, but currency system restructuring and Fed rate - cut expectations support the price. Speculative funds entered the silver and platinum markets in June, and silver prices fluctuated in July. The gold - to - silver ratio has stabilized after回调 to 86. The long - term bull market in gold is supported by currency system restructuring, and the medium - term bull market by economic weakness and rate - cut expectations. However, high prices also mean high volatility. In the short term, London gold is expected to continue to fluctuate between $3120 - $3500/oz. Central bank easing may support silver prices in the medium - to - short term. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view with low - to - medium positions, avoiding full - position chasing and blind short - selling [5]. Group 4: Section Summaries Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook - **Intraday Quotes**: London gold rose and then fell below $3350/oz due to PPI data and officials' statements. Trump's policies boost gold's safe - haven demand [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Quotes**: Shanghai Gold Index closed at 777.63, down 0.36%; Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9222, down 0.89%; Gold T + D closed at 773.09, down 0.26%; Silver T + D closed at 9188, down 0.93% [5]. - **Medium - term Quotes**: London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500/oz since late April. International trade uncertainty has decreased, but currency system restructuring and rate - cut expectations support the price. The gold - to - silver ratio has stabilized after回调 to 86 [5]. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, basis of Shanghai futures indices to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - to - silver ratio, and correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11] Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase in three years, dispelling expectations of a 50BP rate cut in September [17]. - US Treasury Secretary said conditions are favorable for a 25BP rate cut first and then acceleration. Some Fed officials said a 50BP rate cut in September does not match the current economic situation [17]. - Trump said he believes Putin is ready to end the war in Ukraine, and Putin praised US efforts and proposed a nuclear arms control agreement [17]

Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. economic data presents mixed signals, with July CPI showing moderate inflation pressure, raising expectations for a Fed rate cut in September to as high as 95% probability, but the July PPI reported the largest increase in three years, dampening those expectations [2][3] - The recent meeting between Trump and Putin lasted 2.5 hours but did not result in a final agreement to end the conflict, with both leaders indicating progress but lacking concrete outcomes [2] Market Impact - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has been a key catalyst for the doubling of gold prices since late 2022, and any signs of a ceasefire could reduce gold's safe-haven demand, leading to significant price volatility in the short term [3] Upcoming Focus - The Federal Reserve will remain a focal point, with the July meeting minutes to be released and the annual global central bank meeting in Jackson Hole scheduled for August 21-23, where Fed Chair Powell's speech will be particularly significant [3] Technical Analysis - The gold market has shown a downward trend since reaching a high of 3500, currently undergoing a 4th wave adjustment phase, with the price fluctuating within a broad range [6] - The daily chart indicates that gold is in a 4th wave adjustment, with recent movements reflecting profit-taking and market sentiment shifting from optimism to caution [7] - On the hourly chart, gold is currently in the C-3 wave of a downward trend, with critical support levels to watch for potential further declines [11]