山海：黄金保持北伐计划，同时等待非农有效冲击！ 国内金上个交易日走出了预期的上涨，沪金（2606合约）最高在1010，融通金最高在1000，前面讲过，本周的短线布局会在非农数据之前获利出局，因此， 本周的第二波沪金1002多单，融通金993多单已经收割一波利润，那么接下来就空仓观望，等待非农数据影响。保持原则不变，国内金依旧看涨，依旧是等 待回落做多，本周沪金最低在998，融通金最低在990，非农数据回落到这两个支撑依旧是可以顺势做多看涨。未来国内金还有较大的上涨空间。 白银这波下跌估计又坑了不少人，这波调整力度过大，最低都跌至74，虽然山海前面讲过回落做多，但也提示过，暂时白银的风险很大，回落的空间和力度 不太好预测，需要边做边看，周四在确定74止跌后，给出了74.5做多看涨，虽然有部分利润，但前最高在77，不过目前还是在反弹走势中，并没有大涨，但 只要趋势不变，止跌明显，就是做多看涨的机会，所以，现在就是一个坚持多，继续看涨的过程，这个周期先看82，再看更高的空间。 国内银这波同步走出了下跌空间，融通银下跌至17.9附近，沪银（2606合约）下跌到17800附近，经过周四的反弹，融通银目前上涨至18.5， ...

山海：黄金陷入震荡上行中，关注看每日数据影响！ 白银的走势比较明确，注意阶段性上涨的调整空间就好。这波从82.5调整到76.5，目前看来调整已经走完了，不会有延续空间，当前收盘再78.8附近，周 四，周五再多以趋势下会继续走高，上方看82，84.5得失，因此，周期性白银还是继续做多上看，并且逐步看到上方高点，破位则不猜顶。 国内银同步上涨，但也有调整空间，融通银调整至18.5附近，沪银（2606合约）调整到18690附近，前面讲过，白银只要是调整就是上车的机会，而且不做 空，这波融通银的调整在18之上就可以上车，沪银选择看的是18300支撑，力度差了一点，所以未能跟上这波上涨力度，那么，下一波维持18500支撑继续看 涨，不建议追多，周四，周五数据比较多，还有机会跟上这波多头的放量空间。 原油在低位走小范围震荡，前面讲过，受国际市场影响，原油是一个空头趋势，原油形成前面的上涨只是反弹，没有形成多头趋势，所以看反弹的话需要注 意上方压制点是否破位，上方60没有破位就是低位震荡，还有下跌空间。因此，本周原油的下跌也算是正常走势。那么，接下来看待的是，原油还是可以继 续看反弹空间，下方支撑在56附近，反弹里的大小则 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the upward trend of gold remains intact, but it is not extremely strong, suggesting that trading should focus on buying on dips with support levels at 4220 and 4200 [2][4] - Gold's recent performance showed a drop below 4220, reaching a low of 4203, but subsequently rebounded from the 4200 support level, peaking at 4285, indicating potential for further upward movement towards 4300 and 4385 [2][4] - The technical analysis indicates that the H4 cycle shows a strong upward trend, with daily volume increasing, suggesting that gold could continue to rise, with key levels to watch at 4250 and 4232 for potential buying opportunities [5][6] Group 2 - Domestic gold prices did not follow the second wave of increases, with the Shanghai gold contract reaching a low of 960 and a high of 973, indicating a cautious approach to trading [6] - International silver continues to show bullish momentum, recently reaching a high of 64.2, with expectations for further increases, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips with support around 62.5 [6][7] - The Shanghai silver contract has also reached new highs around 15000, indicating a strong upward trend, but traders are advised to refrain from chasing prices and instead wait for potential adjustments before entering positions [7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has announced a continued interest rate cut of 25 basis points, marking the third cut this year, with indications of a likely additional cut later this year [2] - Market reactions have been significant, with the US dollar experiencing a notable decline and gold prices rising sharply, reaching a peak around 4247 [2] - The bullish sentiment in gold trading has been confirmed, with successful trades noted at 4193 and a high of 4225, indicating a profitable strategy [2][4] Group 2 - Domestic gold prices have mirrored international trends, with the Shanghai gold contract reaching a high of 971, and previous buy signals at 960 and 948 yielding over 10 points in profit [5] - The international silver market continues to show strong bullish trends, nearing 63, although there are concerns about potential market corrections due to speculative trading [5] - The Shanghai silver contract remains in a strong upward trend, currently at 14570, but trading strategies suggest maintaining a cautious stance and waiting for potential pullbacks before entering positions [6] Group 3 - International crude oil prices have stabilized around 58.8, with existing long positions maintained, targeting a breakout above 61 for potential gains up to 65 [6] - Domestic fuel oil is also experiencing a range-bound trading pattern, with a long position held at 2450, aiming for targets of 2600 to 2800 if upward momentum is confirmed [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that international gold prices are expected to continue rebounding due to a combination of factors including a recent decline in the US dollar index and the Federal Reserve's third consecutive interest rate cut this year, which has led to market expectations of further easing [2] - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates that most members anticipate at least a 25 basis point cut in the future, with only a few believing that rates should remain unchanged until 2026, suggesting a dovish outlook that could support gold prices [2] - Market participants are advised to focus on upcoming economic data, such as initial jobless claims and wholesale sales, which are expected to be favorable for gold prices, reinforcing the bullish sentiment [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold has shown a strong upward trend, with expectations of reaching levels around 4265 to 4285 in the near term, despite some potential for short-term pullbacks [3] - The domestic gold market has mirrored international trends, with significant gains observed in contracts like the Shanghai gold (2606 contract), which reached a high of 971, and the accumulation gold reaching 959, following previous buy recommendations [3] - The overall trading strategy remains bullish, but caution is advised as the market may enter a consolidation phase, suggesting that traders should avoid chasing further upward movements for now [3]

Group 1 - The core focus of the gold and silver market last week was on the concepts of continuation and breakout, with gold experiencing a one-sided movement on Monday but failing to maintain that momentum in the following days, resulting in a range-bound performance [2][4] - The highest price for gold last week reached 4260, while the lowest was around 4170, indicating a trading range of less than 100 USD, with expectations for continued oscillation within this range unless a breakout occurs [4][5] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is expected to add complexity to the market dynamics, with traders advised to follow the established strategies and rhythms [2][4] Group 2 - Silver maintained a range under the pressure of 59, with multiple retreats below this level, indicating a bearish sentiment, while the support level was noted at 56.5, suggesting potential for a bullish trend if this support holds [6] - The domestic silver market also reflected a similar oscillation pattern, with a focus on maintaining positions within established support and resistance levels, particularly around 13250 for potential bullish movements [6] - The international crude oil market showed signs of recovery, closing around 60, with expectations for further upward movement towards 64, while domestic fuel oil also demonstrated a bullish trend, closing at 2510, with targets set for 2600 and 2800 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently experiencing a wide range of fluctuations, indicating a shift in momentum and a potential for a trading range rather than a clear trend direction [1][3]. Technical Analysis - On Tuesday, gold traded within a range of 4235 to 4166, showing a pattern of initial decline followed by a rise, which suggests a lack of strong continuation in either direction [3]. - The daily closing price for gold was 4217, while silver closed at 58.2, indicating a continuation of the bullish trend despite the observed fluctuations [3]. - The H4 timeframe shows a convergence of Bollinger Bands and moving averages around the mid-band, suggesting limited movement within the range of 4260 to 4150 [4]. - The 10-day moving average is a critical support level; if it holds, gold is likely to continue its upward trend, but a break could lead to lower targets around 4120 or lower [4]. Trading Strategy - The domestic gold market has seen two profitable trades this week, with a focus on short-term fluctuations rather than long-term positions due to the high price levels [5]. - For domestic gold, key levels to watch are 970 on the upside and 955 on the downside, while for domestic silver, the focus is on the resistance at 59 and support at 56.5 [5]. - The international silver market remains strong, with a closing price of 58.5, and traders are advised to monitor for potential changes in trend over the coming days [5][6]. Market Conditions - The international crude oil market is currently stable, closing at 58.5, with expectations of potential upward movement if it surpasses the 61 mark [6]. - Domestic fuel oil is trading at 2450, with no significant changes observed, and a focus on establishing a bottom above 2530 is emphasized [6].

Group 1 - The market is experiencing high volatility due to uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's potential resignation, leading to fluctuations in the dollar, gold, and silver prices [2][4] - Gold prices initially surged to 4263 but later fell to a low of 4218, indicating a possible adjustment phase after a bullish trend [4] - Technical analysis suggests that if gold breaks below the 4200 support level, it could confirm a short-term peak at 4263, with potential further declines to 4120 [4][5] Group 2 - Domestic gold contracts are advised to watch for resistance levels at 975 and 1000, with current prices testing 974 and 963 respectively [5] - International silver has reached a peak of 58.8, but a downturn is anticipated, with a focus on the 55.5 support level for potential trend reversal [5][6] - The domestic silver market is also expected to face adjustments, with a current focus on the 13000 support level for potential bearish movements [6] Group 3 - International crude oil prices are stable around 59.5, with expectations of a potential rise to 61 if the market maintains its upward momentum [6] - Domestic fuel oil remains at 2480, with no significant changes, and a focus on the 2530 level for potential bottom formation [7]

Group 1 - The market experienced unusual volatility last week, with silver reaching a historical high of 57.3, exceeding previous expectations, while gold also rose to around 4233, indicating a strong upward trend [2] - The analysis suggests that the bullish trend for gold and silver is expected to continue this week, with potential upward targets for gold at 4300 and 4380, while maintaining a low-risk approach to trading [4][5] - The domestic gold contracts have reached significant highs, with the Shanghai gold contract at 966 and the Rontong gold at 956, reinforcing the bullish outlook for the current cycle [5][6] Group 2 - International silver has surpassed market expectations, breaking previous highs and continuing to rise, with a current high of 57.5, indicating substantial upward momentum [6][7] - The Shanghai silver contract has also reached a historical high of 13400, with a significant increase from the previous target of 12450, suggesting further upward potential [7] - The performance of international crude oil remains lackluster, closing at 59.2, with expectations of potential upward movement if it stabilizes above 61 [7]