黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 22 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面窄幅调整，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3117 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 窄幅震荡 | | | 上涨 6 元/吨，涨幅为 0.19%，持仓减少 0.1 万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交维持低位，唐山地区迁安普方 | | | | 坯价格持平于 2930 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3210 元/吨，全国建材成交量 7.63 万吨。据海关 | | | | 数据，2025 年 12 月棒线材出口量 211.88 万吨，同比增长 45.24%；1-12 月棒线材出口量 1937.8 万吨，同 | | | | 比增长 61.73%。2025 年 12 月钢坯出口量 144.12 万吨，同比增长 86.43%；1-12 月钢坯出口量 1482.13 万 | | | | 吨，同比增长 134.03%。棒线材及钢坯出口量大幅增长，在很大程度上缓解了螺纹供应压力。目前螺纹整 | | | | 体处于供需双弱局面，库存压力不大， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various black commodities, including steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. It predicts that the short - term trends of these commodities will be mainly in a state of narrow - range fluctuations or oscillations. For example, steel is expected to have a narrow - range oscillation, while iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price dropped, with the rebar 2605 contract closing at 3111 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton or 0.92% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 13,300 lots. Spot prices also fell slightly, and the trading volume declined. Due to a major explosion at a large steel mill's plate plant and seasonal maintenance of domestic steel mills approaching the Spring Festival, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased by 14,900 tons to 2.2801 million tons last week, and there is a downward trend in the future, which will put pressure on the raw material supply - demand. The decline in iron ore and coking coal prices in recent days has suppressed the overall trend of the black series. However, steel mill production cuts and maintenance will relieve the supply pressure in the steel market to some extent. It is expected that the short - term rebar futures price will mainly operate in a narrow - range oscillation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2605 of iron ore futures fell to 789.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.5 yuan/ton or 0.57% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 360,000 lots and a reduction of 30,000 lots in positions. The prices of mainstream port spot varieties also declined. On the supply side, the shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to decline, while those from other countries increased, and the global shipments decreased. On the demand side, the hot metal output decreased by 14,900 tons to 2.2801 million tons. The inventories at 47 ports and steel mills continued to accumulate. Since the previous ore price has risen to a relatively high level, there is a lack of fundamental support for further upward movement. With the combination of long and short factors, the ore price is expected to show an oscillating trend [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price dropped, with the coking coal 2605 contract closing at 1124 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.5 yuan/ton or 4.3%, and the position increased by 29,998 lots. In the spot market, the price of lean clean coal in Changzhi, Shanxi increased, while the prices of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal and No. 3 clean coal at the Ganqimao Port decreased. On the supply side, the production of coal mines in the production areas is stable, the supply of coking coal is growing steadily, and the overall shipment of coal mines has improved with a continuous decline in inventory. On the demand side, the coking and steel enterprises are in the stage of replenishing inventory, but the procurement rhythm has slowed down slightly. Although there is still an expectation of subsequent replenishment, the procurement is still cautious, and they are resistant to some high - priced coal resources. It is expected that the short - term coking coal futures price will operate in an oscillating manner [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures price dropped, with the coke 2605 contract closing at 1673.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47.5 yuan/ton or 2.76%, and the position increased by 792 lots. In the spot market, the quoted price of port coke decreased. On the supply side, the current operation of coking enterprises is good, the coke output is relatively stable, and they are mainly focused on active shipments. Traders have reduced their purchases considering market risks, and the procurement of downstream steel mills has slowed down, so the coke supply - demand structure is expected to be loose. On the demand side, affected by the seasonal off - season, the overall demand in the steel market is poor, and the daily average hot metal output of blast furnaces is still expected to decline. After the previous replenishment, the inventories in steel mills are mostly at a reasonable level, and the procurement of coke is mainly based on rigid demand. It is expected that the short - term coke futures price will operate in an oscillating manner [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On Tuesday, the manganese silicon futures price oscillated weakly, with the main contract closing at 5760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.89% compared to the previous day, and the position of the main contract decreased by 13,668 lots to 215,200 lots. The market prices of manganese silicon in various regions decreased. Recently, the overall trend of the black sector has been weak, and the prices of coking coal and coke have led the decline, causing the center of the manganese silicon futures price to move down. In terms of fundamentals, the price of manganese ore has been slightly adjusted down. On the supply - demand side, the weekly output of manganese silicon has been continuously decreasing, and the furnace - opening rate in Guangxi last week decreased by 5.4 percentage points to 27%. On the demand side, the steel tender price provides some support for the demand of manganese silicon, but the actual consumption at the terminal is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. In terms of inventory, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises has declined from a high level but is still relatively high year - on - year. Overall, the fundamental support is limited, and the market sentiment is weak. It is expected that the short - term manganese silicon will follow the black sector in a weak oscillating manner [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures price oscillated, with the main contract closing at 5552 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07% compared to the previous day, and the position of the main contract increased by 15,954 lots to 245,600 lots. The aggregated prices of ferrosilicon in various regions decreased in some areas. Recently, the overall trend of the black sector has been weak, but the alloy has been relatively stable, and the center of the ferrosilicon futures price has basically remained flat compared to the previous day, with the position of the main contract increasing for three consecutive days. From a fundamental perspective, according to customs data, China's ferrosilicon exports in December increased by 7.6% month - on - month and 0.85% year - on - year, with an annual cumulative export of 377,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.15%. On the supply side, the overall output of ferrosilicon has been relatively stable recently, and the weekly output is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. On the demand side, during the steel tender period, attention should be paid to the procurement and stocking needs of steel mills, but the actual terminal consumption is limited. On the cost side, the raw material prices have remained stable recently, and the calculated production cost of ferrosilicon by the ferro - alloy online has remained the same week - on - week. In terms of inventory, the inventories of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises and the available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills in December have both decreased month - on - month. Overall, the cost side is relatively stable, the marginal changes in the supply - demand level are limited, and the sentiment is affected by the overall trend of the black sector. It is expected that the short - term ferrosilicon will operate in a weak oscillating manner, and attention should be paid to changes in cost and production start - up [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the latest data and their环比 changes of contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities, including steel (rebar and hot - rolled coil), iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. It also includes data on profits and spreads between different varieties, such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit, volume - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2021 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [6][7][8][10][11][13]. - **3.3.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [15][16][20][22]. - **3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the inter - period contract spread charts of various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [24][25][26][30][32][34][36]. - **3.3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: The report shows the inter - variety contract spread charts of various black commodities, including the volume - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [37][38][39][40]. - **3.3.5 Rebar Profits**: The report presents the profit charts of rebar, including the disk profit of the main rebar contract, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit [42][46]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, along with their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [48][49].

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面小幅下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3140 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 下跌 23 元/吨，跌幅为 0.73%，持仓减少 2.74 万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | 窄幅震荡 | | | 价格下跌 10 元/吨至 2950 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 20 元/吨至 3230 元/吨，全国建材成交量 | | | | 8.52 万吨。据国家统计局数据，2025 年全国固定资产投资同比下降 3.8%，其中制造业投资同比增长 0.6%， | | | | 基础设施投资同比下降 2.2%，房地产开发投资比上年下降 17.2%。2025 年我国粗钢产量 9.61 亿吨，同比 | | | | 减少 4422 万吨，降幅 4.4%；2025 年我国生铁产量 8.36 亿吨，同比减少 2586 万吨，降幅 3%。12 月投资 | | | | 增速全面下行，粗钢及生铁产量也明显下降，钢材市场处于供需双弱 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon are all expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term. For steel, the supply - demand data is moderately strong, and the loose monetary policy boosts market sentiment. For iron ore, the supply and demand are intertwined. For coking coal, the increase in downstream procurement supports the price. For coke, the cost increase and demand for replenishment by steel mills co - exist. For manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon, the cost and pre - holiday stocking have a certain supporting effect, but they are mainly affected by the overall trend of the black commodity sector[1][3]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Steel - The closing price of the rebar 2605 contract was 3160 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 0.63 million lots in positions. The spot price was basically stable, and the trading volume was low. The national rebar production decreased by 0.74 million tons to 1.903 billion tons week - on - week, with a year - on - year decrease of 2.99 million tons in the Gregorian calendar and 26 million tons in the lunar calendar. The social inventory increased by 5.23 million tons to 2.9541 billion tons week - on - week, with a year - on - year decrease of 5.21 million tons in the Gregorian calendar and an increase of 17.2 million tons in the lunar calendar. The factory inventory decreased by 5.27 million tons to 1.4266 billion tons week - on - week, with a year - on - year increase of 17.29 million tons in the Gregorian calendar and 21.13 million tons in the lunar calendar. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 15.38 million tons to 1.9034 billion tons week - on - week, with a year - on - year increase of 5.19 million tons in the Gregorian calendar and a decrease of 29.24 million tons in the lunar calendar. The short - term rebar price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range[1]. 3.1.2 Iron Ore - The price of the iron ore futures main contract i2605 fell to 813 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 1% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 250,000 lots and a decrease of 10,000 lots in positions. The prices of port spot mainstream varieties decreased. The shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to decline, while those from other countries increased, resulting in a slight decrease in global shipments. The iron - making water production decreased by 1.49 million tons to 2.2801 billion tons week - on - week. The inventory at 47 ports increased by 2.44 million tons to 172.89 billion tons, and the steel mill inventory continued to increase by 2.72 million tons to 92.62 billion tons. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term[1]. 3.1.3 Coking Coal - The closing price of the coking coal 2605 contract was 1187.5 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton or 0.75%, with an increase of 4546 lots in positions. The prices of some coking coal varieties in the spot market decreased. The coking coal production is steadily recovering, and the downstream's enthusiasm for inquiring and purchasing has increased. The coking coal price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term[1]. 3.1.4 Coke - The closing price of the coke 2605 contract was 1745 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan/ton or 0.37%, with a decrease of 1163 lots in positions. The spot price at the port was stable. Due to the increase in raw coal prices, the cost of coking enterprises has increased, and the overall production enthusiasm is not high. However, the steel mills' demand for coke replenishment has increased. The coke price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term[1]. 3.1.5 Manganese - Silicon - On Thursday, the manganese - silicon futures price fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 5870 yuan/ton, down 0.58% month - on - month, and the main contract positions decreased by 4823 lots to 243,800 lots. The market price of manganese - silicon in each region was basically flat. The northern mainstream steel mills' tender quantity in January was 17,000 tons, an increase of 2300 tons month - on - month, and the first inquiry price was 5850 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month. The weekly production of manganese - silicon has decreased slightly, and the demand during the steel tender period is supported, but the duration may be limited. The manganese ore price has increased steadily. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises has decreased from a high level but is still significantly higher year - on - year. The short - term manganese - silicon futures price is expected to fluctuate with the overall black commodity sector[3]. 3.1.6 Ferrosilicon - On Thursday, the ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 5610 yuan/ton, down 1.27% month - on - month, and the main contract positions decreased by 1622 lots to 215,000 lots. The aggregated price of ferrosilicon in each region was basically flat. The overall production of ferrosilicon is relatively stable, and the weekly production is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. The procurement demand for ferrosilicon is supported during the steel tender period. The post - holiday electricity prices in Qinghai and Ningxia have decreased slightly, and the production cost has decreased week - on - week. The inventory of 60 sample enterprises has changed week - on - week, and the inventory in Inner Mongolia is relatively high. The short - term ferrosilicon price is expected to fluctuate with the overall black commodity sector[3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides detailed data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as data on profits and spreads between varieties[4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts showing the closing prices, basis, inter - period contract spreads, and inter - variety contract spreads of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2021 to 2026, as well as the profit charts of rebar[6][16][25][41][46]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications[52].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] - Coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [2][4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel prices are rising, with the rebar futures contract closing at 3165 yuan/ton, up 0.67%. Spot prices are also up, and the inventory of building materials is decreasing while that of hot-rolled coils is increasing. The market is expected to remain bullish in the short term [1] - Iron ore prices are up, with the futures contract closing at 822.5 yuan/ton, up 1%. Supply is decreasing, while demand is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] - Coking coal prices are up, with the futures contract closing at 1238 yuan/ton, up 3.55%. Supply is stable, and demand is increasing, and the price is expected to remain bullish in the short term [1] - Coke prices are up, with the futures contract closing at 1770 yuan/ton, up 1.26%. Supply is stable, and demand is increasing, and the price is expected to remain bullish in the short term [1] - Manganese silicon prices are up, with the futures contract closing at 5930 yuan/ton, up 0.85%. Supply is decreasing, and demand is increasing, but the price is expected to oscillate [1] - Ferrosilicon prices are up, with the futures contract closing at 5698 yuan/ton, up 1.21%. Supply is stable, and demand is increasing, but the price is expected to oscillate [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures contract 2605 closed at 3165 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/0.67% from the previous day, with an increase in positions. Spot prices rose slightly, and the national building materials trading volume was 105,800 tons. The inventory of building materials decreased by 17,400 tons to 2.9635 million tons, while that of hot-rolled coils increased by 0.98% to 2.0878 million tons. The price is expected to remain bullish in the short term [1] - **Iron ore**: The futures contract i2605 closed at 822.5 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/1% from the previous day, with an increase in positions. The supply from Australia and Brazil decreased, while that from other countries increased, and the global supply decreased slightly. The demand increased, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Coking coal**: The futures contract 2605 closed at 1238 yuan/ton, up 42.5 yuan/3.55% from the previous day, with a decrease in positions. The spot price in Shanxi increased, and the price at the Ganjimao Port increased. The supply is stable, and the demand is increasing, and the price is expected to remain bullish in the short term [1] - **Coke**: The futures contract 2605 closed at 1770 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/1.26% from the previous day, with an increase in positions. The spot price at the port increased. The supply is stable, and the demand is increasing, and the price is expected to remain bullish in the short term [1] - **Manganese silicon**: The futures contract closed at 5930 yuan/ton, up 0.85% from the previous day, with an increase in positions. The spot price in Ningxia increased. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand increased during the steel procurement period. The cost increased slightly, and the inventory decreased from a high level. The price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures contract closed at 5698 yuan/ton, up 1.21% from the previous day, with a decrease in positions. The spot price in Inner Mongolia increased. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand increased during the steel procurement period. The cost decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The price is expected to oscillate [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities, including steel, hot-rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [3] - It also provides data on profits and price spreads between different commodities, such as the rebar futures profit, long-process profit, short-process profit, hot-rolled coil to rebar spread, rebar to iron ore ratio, rebar to coke ratio, and coking coal to coke ratio [3] 3. Chart Analysis - The report includes charts showing the closing prices, basis, inter - month spreads, inter - commodity spreads, and rebar profits of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2021 to 2026 [5][15][23][39][44]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties in the black commodity market are rated as "Oscillating" [1] Core View of the Report - The black commodity market is currently in a state of oscillation, with different varieties showing different supply - demand situations and price trends. The cost factors and supply - demand relationships of each variety jointly affect their short - term price movements [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Steel Products (including rebar and hot - rolled coils)** - Rebar: The rebar futures price slightly declined, with the 2605 contract closing at 3168 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 0.6%. The spot price was stable, and the trading volume decreased. The supply increased, inventory turned from decreasing to increasing, and the apparent demand significantly declined. However, cost factors provided support, and it is expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term [1] - Iron Ore: The futures price of the main contract i2605 decreased to 813 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 1.8%. The global shipping volume decreased, while the iron - making water output increased, and the port and steel mill inventories accumulated. The price is expected to oscillate due to the combination of long and short factors [1] - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures price rose, with the 2605 contract closing at 1190 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 2.23%. The supply increased as mines resumed production, and the market sentiment improved. The demand was resilient, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Coke: The coke futures price declined, with the 2605 contract closing at 1765 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.45%. The spot price increased. The production of coke enterprises was relatively stable, and the demand from steel mills increased, but the consumption in the off - season limited the increase in iron - making water output. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures price weakened, with the main contract closing at 5892 yuan/ton, down 1.77%. The market price was between 5650 - 5850 yuan/ton. The cost provided support, and the inventory was accumulating. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron futures price weakened, with the main contract closing at 5668 yuan/ton, down 3.18%. The market price was about 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton. The supply was expected to decrease, the demand was supported during the steel procurement period, and the inventory was at a high level. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [3] Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: Different contracts of various varieties showed different spread changes. For example, the 5 - 10 spread of rebar was - 45.0, up 3.0; the 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 21.0, down 2.5 [4] - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also changed. For instance, the 05 contract basis of rebar was 152.0, up 19.0; the 05 contract basis of iron ore was 60.0, up 2.9 [4] - **Profit and Cross - variety Spreads**: The profit of rebar showed different trends, such as the rebar futures profit being - 98.9, up 9.8. The cross - variety spreads, like the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, were also provided [4] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts showed the historical price trends of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2021 to 2026 [6][10][12] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts presented the historical basis trends of the main contracts of various varieties [16][18][21] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts displayed the historical spread trends between different contracts of each variety [25][31][32] - **Cross - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts showed the historical spread trends between different varieties, such as the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread and the rebar to iron ore ratio [42][44][45] - **Rebar Profit**: Charts presented the historical profit trends of rebar, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][49][50] Black Research Team Members - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, Zhang Chunjie, etc., each with different professional backgrounds and expertise [52][53] Company Information - The company is located at No. 6, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each black commodity, the following ratings are given: - Steel: Oscillating and bullish [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating and bullish [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating and bullish [1] - Coke: Oscillating and bullish [1] - Manganese silicon: Bullish oscillation [1] - Ferrosilicon: Bullish oscillation [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Steel**: The rebar futures prices rose significantly, with the spot price increasing and trading volume rebounding. The production of building materials continued to rise slightly, inventory changed from decreasing to increasing, and apparent demand declined. Affected by supply - side news, the prices of coking coal, coke, and iron ore futures soared, strongly boosting the rebar trend. The short - term rebar futures are expected to be oscillating and bullish [1]. - **Iron ore**: The futures prices of iron ore rose significantly. The shipping volume from Australia, Brazil, and other countries decreased after the year - end rush. The iron - making water output increased slightly, and port inventory continued to accumulate. Under the influence of market sentiment, the iron ore price is expected to be oscillating and bullish [1]. - **Coking coal**: The coking coal futures prices rose. The spot prices in some areas increased. The coal mines maintained normal production, and downstream users mainly made on - demand purchases. Although the iron - making water output rebounded slightly, the market sentiment was pessimistic, and coking enterprises still had price - reduction expectations for raw coal. The short - term coking coal futures are expected to be oscillating and bullish [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures prices rose. The spot prices in ports increased. The overall production of coking enterprises remained stable, and some enterprises reduced production due to profit compression. After four rounds of price cuts, coking enterprises actively shipped. The profitability of steel mills improved, and some steel mills resumed production. However, terminal demand was still weak in the traditional off - season. The short - term coke futures are expected to be oscillating and bullish [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The manganese silicon futures prices strengthened. The overall black sector was strong, driving the manganese silicon futures prices up. The mainstream steel tender had no new progress, and the manganese ore prices were firm, providing cost support. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises continued to accumulate. The short - term manganese silicon futures are expected to maintain a bullish oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the new round of steel tenders, new production capacity release progress, and electricity price policies [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures prices strengthened. The strong performance of the black sector and the news of electricity price adjustment in Shaanxi drove the ferrosilicon futures prices up. There is an expectation of supply reduction, and the demand is supported during the steel tender period. The inventory of 60 sample enterprises is gradually decreasing but remains at a high level in the same period in recent years. The short - term ferrosilicon is expected to be bullish oscillating, but the upside space may be limited, and attention should be paid to the recent steel tender performance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar 2605 contract closed at 3187 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton or 2.44% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 178,000 lots in positions. The spot price rose, and the trading volume rebounded. The national building materials production increased by 1.73 tons to 357.93 tons, social inventory decreased by 4.32 tons to 454.8 tons, factory inventory increased by 6.97 tons to 300.45 tons, and apparent demand decreased by 14.79 tons to 355.28 tons [1]. - **Iron ore**: The iron ore futures main contract i2605 closed at 828 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton or 3.4% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 490,000 lots and an increase of 26,000 lots in positions. The prices of mainstream port spot varieties rose. The global shipping volume decreased significantly, and the iron - making water output increased slightly. Port inventory continued to accumulate [1]. - **Coking coal**: The coking coal 2605 contract closed at 1164 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton or 6.2%, with an increase of 11,257 lots in positions. The spot prices in some areas increased. Coal mines maintained normal production, and downstream users mainly made on - demand purchases [1]. - **Coke**: The coke 2605 contract closed at 1773 yuan/ton, up 118 yuan/ton or 7.13%, with an increase of 1678 lots in positions. The spot prices in ports increased. The overall production of coking enterprises remained stable, and some enterprises reduced production due to profit compression. After four rounds of price cuts, coking enterprises actively shipped [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The manganese silicon futures prices strengthened, with the main contract closing at 6000 yuan/ton, up 2.08% month - on - month, and the main contract positions increased by 14,767 lots to 284,300 lots. The mainstream steel tender had no new progress, and the manganese ore prices were firm, providing cost support. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises continued to accumulate [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures prices strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5860 yuan/ton, up 2.56% month - on - month, and the main contract positions decreased by 11,933 lots to 245,600 lots. The strong performance of the black sector and the news of electricity price adjustment in Shaanxi drove the ferrosilicon futures prices up. There is an expectation of supply reduction, and the demand is supported during the steel tender period. The inventory of 60 sample enterprises is gradually decreasing but remains at a high level in the same period in recent years [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The report provides the latest and month - on - month data of contract spreads for various black commodities, including 5 - 10 months, 10 - 1 months, etc. For example, the 5 - 10 months spread of rebar is - 48.0, down 3.0 month - on - month [3]. - **Basis**: The report provides the latest and month - on - month data of basis for various black commodities. For example, the 05 contract basis of rebar is 133.0, down 36.0 month - on - month [3]. - **Spot Price**: The report provides the latest and month - on - month data of spot prices for various black commodities in different regions. For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai is 3320.0, up 40.0 month - on - month [3]. - **Profit and Spread**: The report provides the latest and month - on - month data of profits and spreads for various black commodities, such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit, and cross - variety spreads like volume - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc. [3] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts for various black commodities from 2021 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [5][7][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis trends of main contracts for various black commodities from 2021 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [16][17][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread trends of inter - period contracts for various black commodities from 2021 to 2026, including 01 - 05, 05 - 10, 05 - 09, etc. [25][29][31][37][41]. - **Cross - variety Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread trends of cross - variety contracts for various black commodities from 2021 to 2026, including volume - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon difference [43][46][47]. - **Rebar Profit**: The report shows the profit trends of rebar from 2021 to 2026, including disk profit, long - process calculation profit, and short - process calculation profit [49][50][52]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: Currently the assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry's spot trading, research, and consulting. He has won many awards in the futures industry [54]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Currently the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. He is a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and has won many awards in the futures industry [54]. - **Liu Xi**: A master of science, currently a black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [54]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: Currently a black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has worked in investment companies and spot - futures trading companies, passed the CFA Level 2 exam, and is good at thinking from the perspectives of investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures market continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. Although the current supply - demand situation is strong with some specifications in short supply, the expected increase in steel mill复产 in January and the weakening demand in the off - season may lead to the accumulation of supply - demand contradictions. It is expected that the rebar futures market will mainly move in a narrow range in the short term [1]. - Iron Ore: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated narrowly. With the decrease in shipments from Australia and Brazil, the increase in shipments from other countries, and the slight decrease in molten iron production, the iron ore price may show a volatile trend under the interweaving of multiple factors [1]. - Coking Coal: After a coal mine accident in Zhaotong, Yunnan, local coal mines were shut down for temporary rectification, exacerbating the supply shortage. However, due to the poor profit recovery of steel mills and the expected further price cuts of coke, the downstream acceptance of high - priced coal is low. It is expected that the coking coal futures market will operate in a wide - range volatile manner in the short term [1]. - Coke: The coke futures market declined. The coking plants are actively operating, but the consumer market is lackluster, and steel mills are maintaining a rigid procurement strategy. It is expected that the coke futures market will operate in a wide - range volatile manner in the short term [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures price fluctuated strongly. Although the production has decreased, the demand support is limited, and the inventory is accumulating. Considering the cost support, it is expected that the manganese silicon price will mainly move in a volatile manner in the short term [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated strongly. The production has decreased, the demand is weak, and the inventory is decreasing. Overall, the fundamental driving force is limited, and it is expected that the ferrosilicon price will maintain a firm and volatile operation in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of rebar 2605 contract was 3127 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton or 0.29% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 15,600 lots in positions. The spot price was basically stable, and the trading volume declined. The national rebar production increased by 27,100 tons week - on - week to 1.8439 million tons, the social inventory decreased by 188,100 tons to 2.9419 million tons, the factory inventory increased by 5200 tons to 1.4006 million tons, and the apparent demand decreased by 59,600 tons to 2.0268 million tons [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2605 of iron ore futures closed at 778.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.13% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 150,000 lots and an increase of 13,000 lots in positions. The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, while those from other countries increased slightly. The molten iron production decreased slightly by 30 tons to 2.2658 million tons. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports increased by 3.9443 million tons to 166.1996 million tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2605 contract closed at 1124 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.71%, with an increase of 3115 lots in positions. After the coal mine accident in Yunnan, local coal mines were shut down for rectification. The demand side was weak due to the poor profit of steel mills and the expected price cuts of coke [1]. - **Coke**: The coke 2605 contract closed at 1739 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.4%, with an increase of 330 lots in positions. The coking plants were operating actively, but the consumer market was weak, and steel mills maintained a rigid procurement strategy [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The main contract of manganese silicon futures closed at 5846 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 3752 lots in positions to 272,000 lots. The weekly production of manganese silicon decreased to the median level in recent years, and the decline has slowed down recently [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract of ferrosilicon futures closed at 5692 yuan/ton, up 0.85% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 6584 lots in positions to 255,000 lots. The weekly production of ferrosilicon decreased, and the demand was weak, but the inventory decreased [1] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread and Basis**: For rebar, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 20.0, down 5.0; the 5 - 10 month spread was - 45.0, down 8.0. The basis of 01 contract was 203.0, up 4.0; the basis of 05 contract was 183.0, down 1.0. Similar data were provided for other varieties such as hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The rebar futures profit was - 70.0, down 3.8; the long - process profit was 34.8, down 13.6; the short - process profit was 39.3, down 10.0. The spread data such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio were also presented [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts showed the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts presented the basis of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. over different months [17][19][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts displayed the spreads of different contract periods (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 10) for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [26][28][32][33][35][37][39][41]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts showed the spreads between different varieties such as main contract coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. from 2020 to 2025 [43][44][45] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional experience and qualifications in the black commodity research field [56][57]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The rebar futures market continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. The spot price was basically stable, and trading volume increased. The current supply - demand situation is strong, but there are concerns about future supply - demand imbalances. It is expected that the rebar futures market will remain in a narrow - range consolidation in the short term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the iron ore futures main contract rose slightly. The supply from Australia and Brazil decreased, while that from other countries increased slightly. Iron - making output decline expanded, and port inventories continued to accumulate. The ore price is expected to show an oscillatory trend [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market rose. Some mines have limited production or stopped production, and downstream demand remains weak. It is expected that the coking coal futures market will experience wide - range oscillations in the short term [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures market rose, but the spot price at ports decreased. The supply is stable with a slight increase, and demand from steel mills is weak. It is expected that the coke futures market will have wide - range oscillations in the short term [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price of silicon manganese futures fluctuated within a narrow range. Production has decreased, demand support is limited, and inventories are accumulating. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate in the short term [1][3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price of silicon iron futures fluctuated within a narrow range. Supply is gradually decreasing, demand has a slight increase, and inventories have decreased significantly. It is expected that the price will remain firm and oscillate in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar 2605 contract closed at 3136 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.26%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 17,400 lots in positions. The national building materials production increased by 44,100 tons to 3.5578 million tons, social inventory decreased by 340,100 tons to 4.7489 million tons, factory inventory increased by 19,300 tons to 2.9158 million tons, and apparent demand increased by 74,000 tons to 2.5266 million tons [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures main contract i2605 closed at 779.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.13%) from the previous trading day, with 220,000 lots traded and a reduction of 317 lots in positions. The price of PB powder in Qingdao Port rose by 1 yuan to 791 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder fell by 2 yuan to 673 yuan/ton [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2605 contract closed at 1132 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan/ton (0.58%) from the previous trading day, with a reduction of 8652 lots in positions. The ex - factory price of main coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi increased by 7 yuan to 1097 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port rose by 31 yuan to 996 yuan/ton [1]. - **Coke**: The coke 2605 contract closed at 1746 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.29%) from the previous trading day, with a reduction of 552 lots in positions. The spot price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port fell by 20 yuan to 1460 yuan/ton [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On Wednesday, the silicon manganese futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. The main contract was reported at 5832 yuan/ton, down 0.03% month - on - month. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises continued to accumulate, reaching 384,500 tons as of the week of December 19 [1][3]. - **Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the silicon iron futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. The main contract was reported at 5656 yuan/ton, down 0.07% month - on - month. The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased significantly, dropping to 65,160 tons as of the week of December 19 [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities such as steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, silicon manganese, and silicon iron, as well as profit and spread data [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron [17][18][19][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts present the spreads between different periods of contracts for various black commodities [26][28][32][34][35][38][39]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads between different varieties of contracts such as the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc. [44][46][49]. - **Rebar Profits**: Charts display the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of the rebar main contract [50][54]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional backgrounds and qualifications [56][57].

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 19 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面震荡上涨，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3125 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 窄幅整理 | | | 上涨 41 元/吨，涨幅为 1.33%，持仓减少 2.88 万手。现货价格上涨，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格 | | | | 上涨 10 元/吨至 2950 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 40 元/吨至 3220 元/吨，全国建材成交量 10.22 | | | | 万吨。据我的钢铁网数据，本周全国螺纹产量环比回升 2.9 万吨至 181.68 万吨，同比减少 37.05 万吨；社 | | | | 库环比回落 25.7 万吨至 313 万吨，同比增加 30.26 万吨；厂库环比回落 1.26 万吨至 139.54 万吨，同比增 | | | | 加 19.26 万吨；螺纹表需环比回升 5.55 万吨至 208.64 万吨，同比减少 30.04 万吨。螺纹产量小幅回升，库 | | | | 存降幅有所扩大，表需回升 ...