Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The steel market's main contradiction is high supply, weak - stable demand, and continuous inverse - seasonal inventory accumulation. The short - term rebar futures may trade in a narrow range. [1] - The iron ore price is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors. [1] - The coking coal and coke futures are expected to trade in a volatile manner in the short term, affected by factors such as safety inspections, environmental restrictions, and demand changes. [1] - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures are expected to trade in a volatile manner in the short term, with relatively stable fundamentals and limited significant drivers. [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures contract 2510 closed at 3129 yuan/ton, up 0.58%. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume increased. National rebar production, social inventory, and apparent demand changed, with supply - demand data looking weak. [1] - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 2%. Port spot prices were strong. Supply and demand factors were mixed, with a slight drop in global shipments and a decline in iron - water production. [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures contract 2601 closed at 1133 yuan/ton, up 1.82%. Spot prices showed a mixed trend. Supply was restricted by safety inspections, and demand faced short - term pressure. [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures contract 2601 closed at 1672.5 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. Port spot prices fell. Supply was constrained by regional restrictions, and demand from steel mills slowed. [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price weakened slightly, closing at 5842 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. Spot prices in some regions decreased. Production costs were stable, and supply - demand was relatively balanced. [1][3] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price weakened, closing at 5624 yuan/ton, down 0.6%. Spot prices in some regions dropped. Production was slightly down, and demand was still low. [3] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: Data on contract spreads (e.g., 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month) and basis for various commodities (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) were provided, along with their latest values and changes. [4] - **Profit and Spread**: Information on profits (e.g., rebar disk profit, long - process profit) and spreads (e.g., coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) for different commodities was presented, including their latest values and changes. [4] 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts showed the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025. [6][7][9][10][11][14] - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts displayed the basis of main contracts for various commodities over different time periods. [16][17][20][22] - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts presented the spreads of inter - period contracts (e.g., 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for different commodities. [25][27][29][32][34][35][38] - **3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts showed the spreads of inter - commodity contracts (e.g., coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) for different commodities. [40][41][42][44] - **3.5 Rebar Profit**: Charts depicted the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar main contracts from 2020 to 2025. [45][46][49] 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - The team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional backgrounds and qualifications [51][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating weakly [1] - Iron Ore: Narrow - range oscillation [1] - Coking Coal: Oscillation [1] - Coke: Oscillation [1] - Manganese Silicon: Oscillation [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [2][4] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: On August 27, 2025, the rebar futures market had a narrow - range adjustment. The rebar 2510 contract closed at 3111 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 73,400 lots in positions. Spot prices slightly declined, and trading volume remained low. This week, the national building materials production increased by 53,900 tons to 4.0883 million tons, social inventory increased by 160,300 tons to 6.1761 million tons, factory inventory increased by 83,100 tons to 3.1516 million tons, and the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 27,700 tons to 3.8449 million tons. Since August, the supply - demand situation in the rebar spot market has continuously deteriorated, with increased supply, low demand, and reverse - seasonal inventory accumulation, suppressing the futures market. It is expected that the short - term rebar futures market will oscillate weakly [1]. - **Iron Ore**: On August 27, 2025, the main iron ore futures contract i2601 decreased to 775.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.1% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 220,000 lots and an increase of 2,000 lots in positions. In terms of supply, Australia's iron ore shipments increased significantly, Brazil's shipments declined from the high level, and the shipments from other countries decreased, resulting in a slight decline in global iron ore shipments. In terms of demand, the hot metal production increased by 90 tons to 2407,500 tons. The inventory of 47 ports increased, while the steel mills' inventory decreased. With multiple factors at play, it is expected that iron ore prices will show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term [1]. - **Coking Coal**: On August 27, 2025, the coking coal futures market declined. The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1154 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan/ton or 0.56%, with an increase of 7067 lots in positions. In the spot market, the price of gas - bearing raw coal in Xinzhou, Shanxi, decreased by 31 yuan to 506 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was weak, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at the Ganqimaodu port dropping by 7 yuan to 978 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 3 clean coal remaining unchanged at 1100 yuan/ton. Recently, there have been frequent coal mine accidents, and many coal mines in major production areas such as Shanxi have stopped production. The downstream's phased replenishment has ended, and the procurement of raw materials is cautious. The eighth round of coke price increase has not received a response from steel mills. It is expected that the short - term coking coal futures market will oscillate [1]. - **Coke**: On August 27, 2025, the coke futures market declined. The coke 2601 contract closed at 1669.5 yuan/ton, down 11.5 yuan/ton or 0.68%, with an increase of 442 lots in positions. In the spot market, the price of port coke remained stable. After seven rounds of price increases, the profits of coke enterprises have improved significantly. However, due to environmental protection and other factors, some coke enterprises have had phased production restrictions, and the overall operating rate has slightly declined. The coke enterprises' inventory pressure is small. In terms of demand, traffic control in some areas has affected the arrival of coke at steel mills, and with the approaching military parade, more steel mills have production restrictions. The steel market outlook is weak, and steel mills mainly purchase on - demand. It is expected that the short - term coke futures market will oscillate [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On Wednesday, the manganese silicon futures price oscillated weakly. The main contract closed at 5832 yuan/ton, a 0.92% decrease, and the positions in the main contract increased by 6261 lots to 306,000 lots. The market price of manganese silicon in various regions was 5620 - 5800 yuan/ton, remaining basically unchanged from the previous day. Recently, market sentiment has changed rapidly. On the previous day, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped in the late trading session, and the black - goods sector was weak, with coking coal leading the decline. Although the futures price has decreased, the spot market has strong price - holding sentiment. In terms of fundamentals, the production cost of manganese silicon is still relatively stable, and the price of port manganese ore remains unchanged. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly production of manganese silicon has been increasing, and the demand is relatively stable. There is no significant contradiction in the fundamentals, and it is not sufficient to support a continuous upward movement of the manganese silicon futures price. It is expected that the short - term manganese silicon futures price will mainly fluctuate with the overall black - goods market, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Wednesday, the ferrosilicon futures price oscillated weakly. The main contract closed at 5634 yuan/ton, a 1.02% decrease, and the positions in the main contract decreased by 1503 lots to 218,300 lots. The aggregated price of ferrosilicon in various regions was about 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton, remaining basically unchanged from the previous day. Recently, market sentiment has been volatile. The decline of the Shanghai Composite Index in the late trading session affected the black - goods sector, and the ferrosilicon futures price dropped. In terms of fundamentals, the weekly production of ferrosilicon has been increasing, and the year - on - year increase exceeds 10%. The demand for steel has been suppressed, and the demand from sample steel mills for ferrosilicon has remained basically unchanged. The inventory pressure is acceptable, as the inventory of 60 sample enterprises, although still at a relatively high level in the same period of history, has decreased for two consecutive weeks. Overall, there are no major contradictions in the ferrosilicon fundamentals in the near term, and more attention should be paid to market sentiment. It is expected that ferrosilicon will mainly fluctuate with the overall black - goods market in the short term [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section in the Report 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: The report provides the latest contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black - goods products, along with their changes compared to the previous period. For example, the 10 - 1 spread for rebar is - 61.0, with a 11.0 increase; the basis for the 10 - contract is 179.0, with an 8.0 decrease; and the spot price in Shanghai is 3290.0, with a 10.0 decrease [3]. - **Profits and Spreads**: Information on profits and spreads of different products is also presented. For instance, the rebar futures profit is - 46.3, with a 5.4 increase; the long - process profit is 34.6, with a 6.4 decrease; the short - process profit is 15.6, with a 10.0 decrease; the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 238.0, with a 16.0 decrease; and the coke - to - iron - ore ratio is 2.2, with a 0.01 decrease [3]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report includes charts showing the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025, which helps in observing the long - term price trends of these products [5][7][9][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts of the basis for various products are provided, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, which can assist in analyzing the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][19][20][22][23][24][25]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report presents charts of the spreads between different contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for each product, which is useful for understanding the price differences between different contract periods [26][28][30][31][35][36][38][40]. - **Inter - product Contract Spreads**: Charts of the spreads between different products, such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, rebar - to - coke ratio, coke - to - iron - ore ratio, coking coal - to - coke ratio, and ferrosilicon - manganese silicon spread, are shown, helping to analyze the relative price relationships between different black - goods products [42][43][45][47]. - **Rebar Profits**: Charts of the rebar futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit are provided, which can be used to assess the profitability of rebar production [46][48][52]. 3.3 Black Research Team Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black - goods research team, including their positions, work experience, professional qualifications, and achievements. For example, Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the research institute and the director of black - goods research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market shows a narrow - range oscillation. The supply - demand data of rebar has slightly improved, with production decreasing, inventory growth narrowing, and apparent demand slightly rising. The implementation of production restrictions in Tangshan and the macro - vacuum period contribute to this trend [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to experience narrow - range oscillations. The global iron ore shipment volume has increased, while the number of blast furnace overhauls and restarts has changed, and the inventory situation is complex, with port inventory rising and steel mill inventory falling [1]. - The coking coal market is likely to fluctuate. The production of some coal mines has decreased, downstream procurement is cautious, but coke enterprises' profits have recovered, and steel mills' hot metal production remains high [1]. - The coke market is expected to fluctuate. Coke enterprises' profits have improved, leading to increased production enthusiasm, but some areas are affected by production restrictions. Steel mills' demand for coke is relatively stable [1]. - The manganese - silicon market is expected to fluctuate. The production rate of manganese - silicon enterprises remains high, steel mills' demand is weak, and the inventory is at a medium level in recent years [1]. - The silicon - iron market is expected to fluctuate. The production of silicon - iron is increasing, downstream price - pressing intention is strong, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the past five years [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views | Variety | Market Performance | Supply - Demand Situation | Market Outlook | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Steel | Rebar futures contract 2510 closed at 3121 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 65,300 in positions. Spot prices were stable, and trading volume decreased slightly. | This week, the national rebar production decreased by 58,000 tons to 2.1465 million tons year - on - year; social inventory increased by 175,800 tons to 4.3251 million tons; factory inventory increased by 22,700 tons to 1.7453 million tons; apparent demand increased by 48,600 tons to 1.948 million tons [1]. | Narrow - range oscillation [1] | | Iron Ore | The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 772.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5% from the previous trading day, with 280,000 transactions and an increase of 11,000 in positions. Port spot prices rose. | Australian shipments were stable with a slight increase, and Brazilian shipments increased significantly. There were 7 new blast furnace overhauls and 3 restarts. Hot metal production increased by 90 tons to 2.4075 million tons. The inventory of 47 ports increased by 626,300 tons to 144.442 million tons, the number of ships in port decreased by 3, and steel mill inventory decreased by 810,000 tons to 90.65 million tons [1]. | Narrow - range oscillation [1] | | Coking Coal | The coking coal futures contract 2601 closed at 1147 yuan/ton, down 1.33% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 649 in positions. The price of some coking coal in Shanxi increased, and the Mongolian coal market was strong. | The production of some coal mines decreased due to accidents and safety inspections. Coke enterprises' profits recovered, and steel mills' hot metal production remained high. | Oscillation [1] | | Coke | The coke futures contract 2601 closed at 1664 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 807 in positions. Port spot prices were stable. | Coke enterprises' profits improved, and production enthusiasm increased, but some areas were affected by production restrictions. Steel mills' demand for coke was relatively stable. | Oscillation [1] | | Manganese - Silicon | The manganese - silicon futures price oscillated narrowly, with the main contract closing at 5838 yuan/ton, down 0.1% from the previous trading day, and an increase of 6712 in positions. The market price in some areas decreased. | The production rate of manganese - silicon enterprises remained high, and the weekly output exceeded 200,000 tons. Steel mills' demand was weak, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises decreased slightly. | Oscillation [1] | | Silicon - Iron | The silicon - iron futures price strengthened slightly, with the main contract closing at 5638 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous trading day, and an increase of 3215 in positions. The market price in some areas decreased. | The weekly production of silicon - iron continued to increase, reaching 113,400 tons this week, a 0.5% increase from the previous week. Downstream price - pressing intention was strong, and the inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 3100 tons to 62,080 tons. | Oscillation [3] | 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring | Variety | Contract Spread | Latest Value | MoM | Basis | Latest Value | MoM | Spot | Latest Value | MoM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 10 - 1 month | - 79.0 | - 4.0 | 10 - contract | 179.0 | 21.0 | Shanghai | 3300.0 | 10.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 39.0 | - 1.0 | 01 - contract | 100.0 | 17.0 | Beijing | 3260.0 | 0.0 | | | | | | | | | Guangzhou | 3310.0 | 0.0 | | Hot Roll | 10 - 1 month | 15.0 | - 2.0 | 10 - contract | 45.0 | 17.0 | Shanghai | 3420.0 | - 10.0 | | | | | | | | | Tianjin | 3420.0 | - 10.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 9.0 | - 12.0 | 01 - contract | 60.0 | 15.0 | Guangzhou | 3520.0 | - 10.0 | | Iron Ore | 9 - 1 month | 18.5 | 1.5 | 09 - contract | 24.9 | - 2.8 | PB powder | 769.0 | 2.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | 24.5 | 2.5 | 01 - contract | 43.4 | - 1.3 | Super Special powder | 652.0 | 4.0 | | Coke | 9 - 1 month | - 59.0 | - 14.0 | 09 - contract | 27.8 | 28.0 | Rizhao quasi - first - grade | 1470.0 | 0.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 88.0 | 1.5 | 01 - contract | - 31.2 | 14.0 | | | | | Coking Coal | 9 - 1 month | - 117.0 | 1.0 | 09 - contract | 128.0 | 134.5 | Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal | 1350.0 | 120.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 46.0 | - 7.5 | 01 - contract | 11.0 | 135.5 | | | | | Manganese - Silicon | 9 - 1 month | - 92.0 | - 12.0 | 09 - contract | 4.0 | 10.0 | Ningxia, Inner Mongolia | 5570.0, 5750.0 | - 30.0, 0.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 50.0 | 0.0 | 01 - contract | - 88.0 | - 2.0 | Guangxi | 5780.0 | - 20.0 | | Silicon - Iron | 9 - 1 month | - 160.0 | - 6.0 | 09 - contract | - 54.0 | - 58.0 | Ningxia | 5330.0 | 0.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 120.0 | 8.0 | 01 - contract | - 214.0 | - 64.0 | Inner Mongolia, Qinghai | 5300.0 | - 50.0 | | | Profit | Latest Value | MoM | Spread | Latest Value | MoM | Spread | Latest Value | MoM | | | Rebar futures profit | - 28.6 | - 9.8 | Coil - rebar spread | 254.0 | - 16.0 | Coking coal ratio | 1.5 | 0.01 | | | Long - process profit | 67.8 | 6.4 | Rebar - iron ore ratio | 4.0 | - 0.03 | Coke - iron ore ratio | 2.2 | - 0.03 | | | Short - process profit | 36.2 | 10.4 | Rebar - coke ratio | 1.9 | 0.01 | Double - silicon spread | - 292.0 | 18.0 | 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides historical price trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13][16]. - **3.3.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report presents historical basis trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron [19][20][22][24]. - **3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows historical inter - period contract spread trend charts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron [28][32][34][36][37][39]. - **3.3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: The report provides historical inter - variety contract spread trend charts for the main contracts of coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coking coal ratio, and double - silicon spread [42][44][46]. - **3.3.5 Rebar Profits**: The report presents historical profit trend charts for the main contract of rebar, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, he has won many industry awards [54]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many industry honors [54]. - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [54]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures trading [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The steel market is expected to undergo weak consolidation. The rebar futures price decreased, with the 2510 contract closing at 3189 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton or 1.02% from the previous trading day. Spot prices also fell, and trading volume declined. Supply - demand data was weak, with a slight drop in rebar production, a significant increase in inventory, and a decline in apparent demand. Weak RMB loans in July affected market sentiment [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate. The main contract i2601 price dropped to 775 yuan/ton, down 2.94% from the previous settlement price. Global iron ore shipments decreased, iron - making production declined, and port and steel mill inventories increased [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal market is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The 2601 contract closed at 1214 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton or 2.49%. The resumption of coal mine production was slow, downstream procurement slowed, and demand from coke - steel enterprises was average [1]. - Coke: The coke market is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The 2601 contract closed at 1707 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 1.73%. The sixth round of price increases was fully implemented, coke enterprises' production was normal, and steel mills' demand for replenishment was relatively active [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon market may experience a slight correction. The main contract price was 6050 yuan/ton, down 1.08%. Supply was increasing, and demand was waiting for the main steel mill's tender price. The fundamental driving force was limited [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon market may experience a correction. The 09 contract price was 5744 yuan/ton, down 2.15%. Supply was increasing, and demand was affected by downstream production control. The fundamental driving force was limited [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: Yesterday, the rebar futures price continued to fall. The 2510 contract closed at 3189 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton or 1.02%, with a decrease of 16,000 lots in positions. Spot prices dropped, and trading volume declined. National rebar production decreased by 0.73 tons week - on - week to 220.45 million tons, social inventory increased by 26.45 million tons to 414.93 million tons, and factory inventory increased by 4.06 million tons to 172.26 million tons. Apparent demand decreased by 20.85 million tons to 189.94 million tons. In July, RMB loans were weak, affecting market sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2601 price fell to 775 yuan/ton, down 2.94%. Port spot prices also dropped. Australian shipments decreased, Brazilian shipments increased, and global shipments decreased. Iron - making production decreased by 0.34 million tons to 240.66 million tons, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16%. Port and steel mill inventories increased [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2601 contract closed at 1214 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton or 2.49%, with a decrease of 24,908 lots in positions. The price of some coking coal in the spot market was adjusted. Coal mine resumption was slow, downstream procurement slowed, and demand from coke - steel enterprises was average [1]. - **Coke**: The 2601 contract closed at 1707 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 1.73%, with a decrease of 1034 lots in positions. The sixth round of price increases was fully implemented. Coke enterprises' production was normal, and steel mills' demand for replenishment was relatively active [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The main contract price was 6050 yuan/ton, down 1.08%, with a decrease of 21,026 lots in positions. The market price in each region was 5800 - 6050 yuan/ton. Supply was increasing, and demand was waiting for the main steel mill's tender price. The fundamental driving force was limited [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The 09 contract price was 5744 yuan/ton, down 2.15%, with a decrease of 16,432 lots in positions. The market price in each region was about 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton. Supply was increasing, and demand was affected by downstream production control. The fundamental driving force was limited [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties showed different changes. For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 78.0, down 4.0; the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore was 22.0, up 1.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also changed. For example, the 09 - contract basis of iron ore was 27.1, up 0.2; the 01 - contract basis of coke was - 85.0, up 8.3 [4]. - **Spot Price**: Spot prices of different varieties decreased. For example, the Shanghai rebar price was 3320.0, down 40.0; the PB powder price was 771.0, down 13.0 [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profit and spread of different varieties showed different trends. For example, the rebar futures profit was 13.8, up 15.0; the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 243.0, up 14.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts showed the closing prices of main contracts of various varieties from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc [5][7][9]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts showed the basis of main contracts of various varieties over different time periods, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc [18][19][20]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts showed the spreads of inter - period contracts of various varieties over different time periods, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc [26][28][30]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts showed the spreads of inter - variety contracts of various varieties from 2020 to 2025, including the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc [41][42][44]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts showed the profit of rebar main contracts from 2020 to 2025, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [45][47][51]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry. He has multiple honors and relevant qualification numbers [53]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with multiple honors and relevant qualification numbers [53]. - Liu Xi: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data, with relevant qualification numbers [53]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and trade, and passed the CFA Level 2 exam, with relevant qualification numbers [54].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The black commodity futures market is generally bullish today. The supply - demand gap may gradually ease, and the black market will have short - term shock adjustments. The short - term supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is relatively loose, and there is an expectation of increased supply. Steel exports may weaken marginally, and the loose pattern of ferrosilicon may expand. The short - term main contract is expected to fluctuate around 5500 - 6000 yuan/ton [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Today, the black commodity futures are generally bullish. The rebar closed at 3250 yuan/ton, up 1.09%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3465 yuan/ton, up 1.29%; the iron ore main contract closed at 796.5 yuan/ton; the coking coal and coke rose today, with coking coal leading the increase close to 3% [1] Market Analysis Demand - Last week, the average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.32 million tons, a decrease of 0.39 million tons from the previous week, but the profitability rate of steel mills increased by 3.03% to 68.4%. The hot metal output is still at a relatively high level, and steel mills have a weak willingness to actively reduce production. In the short term, it still supports the rigid demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. During the recent alloy centralized steel procurement period, the market expects the demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese to be further released, which has a certain positive impact on the market. However, northern steel mills are facing production restrictions due to the military parade, and the overall start - up situation of steel mills needs to be continuously tracked [1] Supply - Last week, the weekly output of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 109,100 tons, an increase of 4700 tons from the previous week; the weekly output of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 195,825 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. Driven by the warming of the alloy market, the production profits of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises have been repaired, and the enthusiasm of manufacturers to start production has continued to rise. The supply has a further growth trend, which may have a negative impact on the market in the short term. However, there are still calls for "anti - involution", and the market expects the alloy output to shrink in the future. The supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is facing a certain long - short game, and attention should be paid to the implementation of relevant policies [1] Cost - For ferrosilicon, with the news of price increases for raw materials such as semi - coke and electricity, the cost support for ferrosilicon has strengthened, which is positive for the futures price. For silicomanganese, the manganese ore market remained on the sidelines at the beginning of the week, with prices fluctuating at a high level and relatively stable; the spot price of coke remained stable, and the sixth round of price increase is still under negotiation. Overall, the cost side of silicomanganese is stable and slightly strong, which may support the market [1] Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to adopt a shock - thinking approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to adopt a high - level consolidation thinking approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1]

Report Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term steel rebar futures market is expected to move in a narrow range. The production has increased significantly, inventory growth has expanded, and apparent demand has recovered, but high steel exports have eased domestic supply pressure [1]. - The iron ore price is expected to show an oscillatory trend in the short term. Supply has decreased, demand has slightly changed, and the market is concerned about military parade - related production restrictions [1]. - Both coking coal and coke futures markets are expected to experience wide - range oscillations in the short term. For coking coal, supply - side inspections have affected market sentiment, and demand is strong. For coke, raw material prices are rising, and demand from steel mills and traders is good [1]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures prices are expected to have wide - range oscillations in the short term. For manganese silicon, market news has affected sentiment, and demand from steel procurement provides some support. For ferrosilicon, cost provides support, and the marginal change in supply and demand is limited [1][3]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Steel Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 3231 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (0.09%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 24,400 lots in positions. Spot prices were stable to lower, and trading volume declined. This week, national rebar production increased by 101,200 tons to 2.2118 million tons year - on - year, social inventory increased by 43,400 tons to 3.8848 million tons, factory inventory increased by 60,500 tons to 1.682 million tons, and apparent demand increased by 73,800 tons to 2.1079 million tons. In July 2025, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a 1.6% month - on - month increase [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2509 was 793 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton (0.2%) from the previous trading day, with 200,000 lots traded and a decrease of 23,000 lots in positions. Port spot prices mostly declined. Australian shipments decreased, Brazilian shipments fell from a high, and global iron ore shipments decreased. The iron - making water output decreased by 3,900 tons to 2.4032 million tons, and the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.29%. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 452,600 tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1229.5 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan/ton (0.7%), with an increase of 45,809 lots in positions. Spot prices in some areas increased. Shanxi's coal mine over - production inspections affected market sentiment, and coking enterprises' demand was strong [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1744 yuan/ton, up 11.5 yuan/ton (0.66%), with an increase of 1,609 lots in positions. Spot prices at ports increased. Coking coal supply was favorable, and coke production and demand were both good [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On Thursday, the manganese silicon futures price weakened in an oscillatory manner. The main contract was reported at 6064 yuan/ton, a 0.75% month - on - month decrease, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 14,857 lots to 237,700 lots. Market prices in various regions were between 5800 - 6000 yuan/ton. Recent market news affected sentiment, and steel procurement provided some support [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Thursday, the ferrosilicon futures price weakened in an oscillatory manner. The main contract was reported at 5834 yuan/ton, a 1.22% month - on - month decrease, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 21,298 lots to 124,500 lots. Market prices in various regions were around 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton. Cost provided support, supply increased, and demand also showed some positive changes [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 73.0, up 2.0; the 1 - 5 spread was - 26.0, up 2.0. Similar data were provided for other varieties such as hot - rolled coils, iron ore, etc. [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 129.0, down 7.0; the basis of the 01 - contract was 56.0, down 5.0. Similar data were provided for other varieties [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Shanghai's rebar spot price was 3360.0, down 10.0; Beijing's was 3300.0, down 10.0. Similar data were provided for other varieties and regions [4]. - **Profit and Other Spreads**: Rebar's disk profit was 45.8, down 12.0; long - process profit was 145.6, down 4.6; short - process profit was 79.6, unchanged. Other spreads such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. were also provided [4]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Included price trend charts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 - 2025 [5][7][9][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Included basis trend charts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][20][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Included spread trend charts of different contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][28][30][31][35][36][38][40]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Included spread trend charts such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc. [42][43][45][46]. - **Rebar Profits**: Included profit trend charts of rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][48][52]. Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry. He has many honors and relevant qualification numbers [54]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has many titles and relevant qualification numbers [54]. - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data and has relevant qualification numbers [54]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has relevant work experience and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam, with relevant qualification numbers [55].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillatory consolidation [1] - Iron ore: High-level oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Wide-range oscillation [1] - Coke: Wide-range oscillation [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures price dropped significantly, with inventory increasing and supply-demand pressure intensifying. The sharp drop in coking coal futures affected market sentiment, and the short-term rebar futures may oscillate [1]. - Iron ore: The futures price declined, with an increase in global shipments and a decrease in iron ore output. Affected by macro sentiment, the ore price may oscillate at a high level in the short term [1]. - Coking coal: The futures price fell, and the spot market was weak. With the fourth round of price increases for coke basically implemented, the demand for coking coal was stable. The exchange's measures may lead to wide-range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Coke: The futures price dropped, and the fourth round of price increases was basically implemented. After the price increase, the exchange took cooling measures, and some participants showed fear of high prices. The short-term futures may oscillate widely [1]. - Manganese silicon: The futures price weakened, and the spot price decreased. The supply-demand outlook improved, and the cost was expected to rise. The short-term futures may oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the end-of-month meeting [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The futures price weakened, and the spot was tight. Production enthusiasm increased, and the supply-demand situation improved marginally. The short-term futures may oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the meeting results [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar 2510 contract closed at 3248 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton or 3.22%. The spot price and trading volume decreased, and inventory increased. The profit from producing rebar was better, and the supply-demand pressure would increase. The drop in coking coal futures affected market sentiment [1]. - **Iron ore**: The i2509 contract closed at 786 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan/ton or 2%. The spot price decreased, and global shipments increased. Iron ore output decreased, and inventory increased. Affected by macro sentiment, the ore price may oscillate at a high level [1]. - **Coking coal**: The 2509 contract closed at 1100.5 yuan/ton, down 158.5 yuan/ton or 12.59%. The spot price decreased, and some traders sold at lower prices. The fourth round of price increases for coke was implemented, and the demand for coking coal was stable. The exchange's measures may lead to wide-range oscillations [1]. - **Coke**: The 2509 contract closed at 1608.5 yuan/ton, down 154.5 yuan/ton or 8.76%. The spot price decreased, and the fourth round of price increases was implemented. The steel mills' profit was high, but the exchange's measures and participants' fear of high prices may lead to wide-range oscillations [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The futures price closed at 6028 yuan/ton, down 2.96%. The spot price decreased, and the supply-demand outlook improved. The cost was expected to rise, and the short-term futures may oscillate widely [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price closed at 5840 yuan/ton, down 2.44%. The spot was tight, and production enthusiasm increased. The supply-demand situation improved marginally, and the short-term futures may oscillate widely [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Rebar**: The 10 - 1 month contract spread was -41.0, up 2.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -22.0, down -3.0. The 10 - contract basis was 142.0, up 68.0; the 01 - contract basis was 101.0, up 70.0. The spot prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The 10 - 1 month contract spread was -12.0, down -1.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -10.0, down -6.0. The 10 - contract basis was 43.0, up 50.0; the 01 - contract basis was 31.0, up 49.0. The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased [4]. - **Iron ore**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was 29.0, down -1.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was 19.0, down -1.5. The 09 - contract basis was 31.0, up 4.4; the 01 - contract basis was 60.0, up 3.4. The spot prices of PB powder and super - special powder decreased [4]. - **Coke**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -42.0, up 6.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -26.5, up 7.5. The 09 - contract basis was -51.8, up 121.9; the 01 - contract basis was -93.8, up 127.9. The spot price in Rizhao decreased [4]. - **Coking coal**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -79.5, down -20.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -4.5, down -13.5. The 09 - contract basis was -62.5, up 158.5; the 01 - contract basis was -142.0, up 138.5. The spot price of Shanxi medium - sulfur coking coal remained unchanged [4]. - **Manganese silicon**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -74.0, down -10.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -28.0, down -12.0. The 09 - contract basis was -328.0, up 386.0; the 01 - contract basis was -402.0, up 376.0. The spot prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia changed [4]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -108.0, up 12.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -42.0, up 12.0. The 09 - contract basis was -240.0, up 326.0; the 01 - contract basis was -348.0, up 338.0. The spot prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [4]. - **Profit and spread**: The rebar's disk profit was 103.9, down -3.5; the long - process profit was 231.0, down -18.5; the short - process profit was 76.3, down -96.9. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 149.0, down -2.0; the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.1, down -0.05; the ratio of coking coal to iron ore was 1.5, up 0.06 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main contract price**: The report presents the price trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 through charts [6][8][10][11][14][15] - **3.2 Main contract basis**: The report shows the basis trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon through charts [17][18][21][23] - **3.3 Inter - period contract spread**: The report displays the spread trends of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon through charts [25][30][31][33][34][37] - **3.4 Inter - variety contract spread**: The report shows the spread and ratio trends of inter - variety contracts such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, and the ratio of coking coal to iron ore through charts [39][40][41][43] - **3.5 Rebar profit**: The report presents the profit trends of rebar's main contract, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit, through charts [44][45][47] 4. Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and director of black research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, he has won many awards [49] - Zhang Xiaojin: Current director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many awards [49] - Liu Xi: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [49] - Zhang Chunjie: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and trading, and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam [50]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] - Iron ore: High-level oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] - Coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: The thread steel futures market oscillated upward, with spot prices rising slightly and trading volume increasing. Output rose slightly, inventory decreased again, and apparent demand increased. With resilient demand in the off-season, low output, and no inventory accumulation, coupled with rising coking coal prices and expected cost increases, the short-term futures market is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [1] - Iron ore: The futures price of the main contract decreased. Supply increased, demand decreased slightly, and inventory increased. Affected by recent macro sentiment, and having risen significantly with the black series previously, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [1] - Coking coal: The futures price rose, and the spot market was strong. With positive news in the black industry chain, continuous inventory reduction, and increasing demand from steel mills, the short-term futures market is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [1] - Coke: The futures price rose, and the spot price increased. With rising coal prices and increased costs for coke enterprises, but also rising steel prices and increased demand from steel mills, the short-term futures market is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [1] - Manganese silicon: The futures price oscillated widely. With limited fundamental support, increasing output, low demand, and relatively stable costs, the short-term market is expected to oscillate widely [3] - Ferrosilicon: The futures price oscillated weakly. With low supply and demand, decreasing inventory, and limited fundamental drivers, the short-term market is expected to oscillate widely [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - Steel: The closing price of the thread steel 2510 contract was 3294 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions. National thread steel output increased by 2.9 tons week-on-week to 211.96 million tons, social inventory increased by 2.81 tons to 372.97 million tons, factory inventory decreased by 7.43 tons to 165.67 million tons, and apparent demand increased by 10.41 tons to 216.58 million tons [1] - Iron ore: The closing price of the main contract i2509 was 811 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Australian shipments continued to decline, Brazilian shipments increased, and shipments from non-mainstream countries increased significantly. Iron ore shipments globally increased. Newly added 1 blast furnace resumed production, 1 blast furnace was under maintenance, and hot metal output decreased by 0.21 tons to 242.23 million tons week-on-week [1] - Coking coal: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 1198.5 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. The price of prime coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi, increased by 20 yuan to 1400 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was strong, with prices rising [1] - Coke: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1735 yuan/ton, up 27.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions. The spot price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port increased by 40 yuan to 1420 yuan/ton. Coke enterprises faced increased costs and were in a state of overall loss, but steel prices rose, boosting the confidence of coke enterprises to raise prices [1] - Manganese silicon: The main contract was reported at 5948 yuan/ton, down 0.13% month-on-month, with a decrease in positions. The spot market price of 6517 manganese silicon in various regions was about 5650 - 5940 yuan/ton, with a decrease in Inner Mongolia [3] - Ferrosilicon: The main contract was reported at 5754 yuan/ton, down 1.54% month-on-month, with a decrease in positions. The aggregated price of 72 ferrosilicon in various regions was 5500 - 5550 yuan/ton, with a decrease in Ningxia [3] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various varieties showed different changes. For example, the 10 - 1 spread of thread steel was -59.0, down 9.0; the basis of the 10 contract was 86.0, down 20.0; the spot price in Shanghai was 3380.0, unchanged [4] 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Prices**: Included price trend charts of main contracts such as thread steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13][16] - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: Included basis trend charts of main contracts such as thread steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [19][20][23][25] - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Included spread trend charts of inter - period contracts such as thread steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [28][30][31][35][37][38][40] - **3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Included spread trend charts of inter - variety contracts such as the hot-rolled coil - thread steel spread, thread steel - iron ore ratio, thread steel - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and manganese silicon - ferrosilicon spread [43][45][47] - **3.5 Thread Steel Profits**: Included profit trend charts of thread steel such as the main contract's on - screen profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [48][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various black commodities, including steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. Most commodities are expected to show a strong or upward - trending performance in the short term due to factors such as policy expectations and market sentiment [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures market rose strongly. The Rb2510 contract closed at 3,224 yuan/ton, up 2.45%. Spot prices also increased, and the national building materials trading volume reached 127,800 tons. With the expected supply - side reform in the steel industry and large - scale infrastructure projects, the short - term rebar futures market is expected to continue its strong performance [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2509 of iron ore futures rose to 809 yuan/ton, up 3%. Port spot prices were strong. Global iron ore shipments increased, and iron water production remained high. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports continued to decline. It is expected that iron ore prices will remain in a high - level oscillation in the near future [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market rose. The Jm2509 contract closed at 1,006 yuan/ton, up 8.64%. Spot prices increased. The upstream coal mine inventory has returned to a reasonable level, and coal mines are resuming production. Steel mills' demand for coke has improved, and it is expected that the short - term coking coal futures market will be strong [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures market rose. The J2509 contract closed at 1,603 yuan/ton, up 5.05%. Spot prices were stable. Coke enterprises initiated a second price increase after the first one was implemented. Steel mills' profitability is good, providing room for raw material price increases. The short - term coke futures market is expected to be strong [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price strengthened. The main contract closed at 5,914 yuan/ton, up 1.55%. Spot prices increased in some areas. Although the supply has been increasing for 9 consecutive weeks, the demand has decreased, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level. Driven by market sentiment, the short - term manganese silicon price is expected to be in a strong oscillation [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price strengthened. The main contract closed at 5,688 yuan/ton, up 2.46%. Spot prices increased in most areas. The supply has increased slightly, the demand has decreased, and the inventory has declined. Market sentiment has a certain supporting effect on the ferrosilicon price, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate upward [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities, including steel, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as profit and spread data such as rebar futures profit, long - process profit, short - process profit, and cross - variety spreads [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: It shows the closing price trends of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [7][9][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of the main contracts of various black commodities over different time periods, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread trends of different contracts of various black commodities, such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][30][31][34][36]. - **Cross - variety Contract Spreads**: It presents the spread trends of different varieties of black commodities, including the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coke to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to coke, and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon [39][41][43]. - **Rebar Profits**: It shows the profit trends of rebar futures, long - process calculation profit, and short - process calculation profit from 2020 to 2025 [44][48]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [50][51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to experience volatile consolidation. The decline in real - estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investment data has affected market sentiment, and short - term steel prices are likely to fluctuate [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to remain in high - level volatility. Although the global iron ore shipment volume has slightly decreased, and the demand for iron ore has also declined, the inventory at ports has decreased, and attention should be paid to the steel demand during the off - season [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to show a volatile trend. The resumption of coal mine production and the change in the urbanization stage have affected market expectations, and the short - term prices are likely to fluctuate [1]. - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are expected to be volatile. Although the cost and steel tender prices have some support, the overall fundamental driving force is limited, and the upward space is limited [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price declined slightly, and the spot price also decreased. The investment data of real - estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing from January to June weakened, and the short - term rebar futures price is expected to oscillate and consolidate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures price rose slightly, and the port spot price showed mixed trends. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly, and the demand for iron ore declined. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate at a high level [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price declined, and the spot price in some areas increased. With the resumption of coal mine production and the change in urbanization stage, the short - term coking coal futures price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures price declined, and the spot price remained stable. The price increase of coke was lower than expected, and the terminal demand increment expectation was disappointed. The short - term coke futures price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price oscillated and strengthened. The cost support increased, and the steel tender price was higher than expected. However, the supply - demand pattern was relatively loose, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated and strengthened. The steel tender price increased, but the supply - demand was at a low level, and the inventory was at a high level. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties showed different changes, such as the 10 - 1 spread of rebar decreased by 14.0, and the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore decreased by 1.5 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of various varieties also changed. For example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar increased by 14.0, and the basis of the 09 - contract of iron ore increased by 0.6 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various varieties changed differently. For example, the spot price of Shanghai rebar decreased by 10.0, and the spot price of PB powder in Qingdao Port remained unchanged [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profit and spread of various varieties also changed. For example, the rebar futures profit decreased by 19.3, and the coil - rebar spread increased by 7.0 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][8][10][11][14][17]. - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [19][20][23][25]. - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the inter - period contract spread charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [27][32][33][36]. - **3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spread**: The report includes the inter - variety contract spread charts of the main contracts, such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [40][42][44]. - **3.5 Rebar Profit**: The report shows the profit charts of the rebar main contract, including the futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [46][50]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: The current assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of the black research department, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: The current director of the resource product research department of the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of black industry chain research [52]. - **Liu Xi**: A black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: A black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures combination [53].