Group 1 - Retail investors are gradually withdrawing funds from the "Big Seven" tech stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, Nvidia, Tesla) and are instead investing in companies with strong performance but declining stock prices [1] - Nvidia is the top stock being sold off by retail investors, indicating a shift in investment strategy as they adjust their portfolios based on stock performance [1] - Beneficiaries of this rotation include stocks like Salesforce (CRM.US), Okta (OKTA.US), and Marvell Technology (MRVL.US), which have underperformed compared to dominant tech stocks [1] Group 2 - During periods of extreme market volatility, there is a notable shift from single stocks to exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with the ratio changing from 80% single stocks to 20% ETFs to 60% single stocks to 40% ETFs [2] - Bitcoin remains a highly sought-after financial product among Robinhood's customer base, with a popular strategy of dollar-cost averaging being favored by younger investors [2] - The average age of Robinhood's customer base is slightly above 30 years, indicating a younger demographic engaging in regular investment practices [2]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Continuous Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy is based on the convergence of basis in stock index futures and aims to optimize hedging performance by continuously rolling over contracts[47][48] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to May 16, 2025[48] - **Spot Side**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[48] - **Futures Side**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot side and the remaining 30% for shorting futures contracts with the same nominal principal[48] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Continuously hold the current month/quarter contracts until two days before expiration, then roll over to the next contract at the closing price[48] - **Assumptions**: No transaction fees, impact costs, or indivisibility of futures contracts are considered[48] 2. Model Name: Minimum Basis Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy selects futures contracts with the smallest annualized basis discount to optimize hedging performance[49] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to May 16, 2025[49] - **Spot Side**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[49] - **Futures Side**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot side and the remaining 30% for shorting futures contracts with the same nominal principal[49] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Calculate the annualized basis for all tradable futures contracts and select the one with the smallest discount. Contracts are held for at least eight trading days or until two days before expiration[49] - **Assumptions**: No transaction fees, impact costs, or indivisibility of futures contracts are considered[49] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Continuous Hedging Strategy - **IC (CSI 500 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: -2.45% (current month), -1.66% (quarterly), -0.66% (minimum basis)[51] - Volatility: 3.94% (current month), 4.85% (quarterly), 4.76% (minimum basis)[51] - Maximum Drawdown: -7.51% (current month), -8.34% (quarterly), -7.97% (minimum basis)[51] - Net Value: 0.9331 (current month), 0.9543 (quarterly), 0.9818 (minimum basis)[51] - **IF (CSI 300 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: 0.76% (current month), 1.01% (quarterly), 1.59% (minimum basis)[56] - Volatility: 3.08% (current month), 3.42% (quarterly), 3.21% (minimum basis)[56] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.95% (current month), -4.03% (quarterly), -4.06% (minimum basis)[56] - Net Value: 1.0212 (current month), 1.0286 (quarterly), 1.0450 (minimum basis)[56] - **IH (SSE 50 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: 1.20% (current month), 2.13% (quarterly), 1.84% (minimum basis)[60] - Volatility: 3.19% (current month), 3.62% (quarterly), 3.21% (minimum basis)[60] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.22% (current month), -3.75% (quarterly), -3.91% (minimum basis)[60] - Net Value: 1.0339 (current month), 1.0605 (quarterly), 1.0521 (minimum basis)[60] - **IM (CSI 1000 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: -5.28% (current month), -3.88% (quarterly), -3.23% (minimum basis)[62] - Volatility: 4.35% (current month), 5.45% (quarterly), 5.31% (minimum basis)[62] - Maximum Drawdown: -14.36% (current month), -12.63% (quarterly), -11.11% (minimum basis)[62] - Net Value: 0.8595 (current month), 0.8953 (quarterly), 0.9124 (minimum basis)[62] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Cinda-VIX - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects investors' expectations of future volatility in the options market, with a term structure to capture different time horizons[65] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Based on methodologies from international markets, adjusted for China's on-exchange options market[65] - Calculated using implied volatilities from options with different maturities[65] - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides insights into market sentiment and volatility expectations[65] 2. Factor Name: Cinda-SKEW - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the skewness in implied volatility across different strike prices, capturing market expectations of extreme tail risks[74] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Analyzes the slope of implied volatility curves for options with varying strike prices[74] - Higher SKEW values indicate increased demand for out-of-the-money options, reflecting heightened tail risk concerns[75] - **Factor Evaluation**: Useful for assessing market sentiment and potential "black swan" events[75] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Cinda-VIX - **30-Day VIX Values**: - SSE 50: 19.24[65] - CSI 300: 19.19[65] - CSI 500: 22.56[65] - CSI 1000: 26.89[65] 2. Cinda-SKEW - **SKEW Values**: - SSE 50: 100.71[75] - CSI 300: 103.73[75] - CSI 500: 98.73[75] - CSI 1000: 107.96[75]

- The report includes the construction of dividend points for stock index futures contracts, predicting the dividend points for the next year for indices such as CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000[10][12][16][18] - The construction process involves estimating the dividend points for the contract's duration, adjusting the basis by removing the impact of dividends, and annualizing the basis[20] - The basis adjustment formula is: Expected dividend-adjusted basis = Actual basis + Expected dividends during the contract period[20] - The annualized basis formula is: Annualized basis = (Actual basis + (Expected) dividend points) / Index price × 360 / Remaining days of the contract[20] - The evaluation of the basis adjustment indicates that the basis for IC, IF, IH, and IM contracts has generally increased, with the basis for IC and IM contracts showing a narrowing discount, while IF and IH contracts show a slight increase in premium[21][27][32][38] Model Backtesting Results - IC contract: Annualized basis discount narrowed to 7.58%[21] - IF contract: Annualized basis discount narrowed to 2.07%[27] - IH contract: Annualized basis premium increased to 0.83%[32] - IM contract: Annualized basis discount narrowed to 10.35%[38] Quantitative Factors and Construction - Cinda-VIX: Reflects the expected future volatility of the underlying asset in the options market, with a term structure indicating different volatility expectations for different periods[63] - Cinda-SKEW: Measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices, capturing market expectations of extreme events and potential risks[72] Factor Backtesting Results - Cinda-VIX values as of April 25, 2025: SSE 50VIX 19.21, CSI 300VIX 19.66, CSI 500VIX 29.03, CSI 1000VIX 28.66[64] - Cinda-SKEW values as of April 25, 2025: SSE 50SKEW 102.81, CSI 300SKEW 104.47, CSI 500SKEW 102.76, CSI 1000SKEW 103.65[72] Evaluation of Models and Factors - The basis adjustment model effectively accounts for the impact of dividends on futures contracts, providing a more accurate basis measurement[20] - The Cinda-VIX and Cinda-SKEW indices offer valuable insights into market sentiment and potential risks, with high SKEW values indicating increased concern over extreme negative events[72]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in gold investment from older generations to younger individuals, highlighting the increasing interest and participation of younger investors in the gold market, despite skepticism from older generations about the speculative nature of such investments [3][5][6]. Group 1: Gold Investment Trends - The price of gold has increased by 30% this year and 28% last year, leading some young investors to take loans and leverage their assets to invest in gold, viewing it as a guaranteed profit opportunity [5][11]. - The macroeconomic environment remains challenging, with central banks continuing to purchase gold, which supports the bullish trend in gold prices [12][11]. - Despite the high current gold prices, there is still optimism about future increases, although the article suggests caution regarding further investments at these levels [11][13]. Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver has also been in a bull market since 2022, but its price movements tend to lag behind gold, creating opportunities for investors to capitalize on the time difference between gold and silver price increases [16][22]. - The gold-silver ratio, which indicates the relative value of gold to silver, has historically averaged around 60, and significant deviations from this average suggest potential trading opportunities [28][30]. - The article notes that the recent extreme fluctuations in the gold-silver ratio are influenced by market fear and greed, as indicated by the VIX index, which has shown similar patterns in past market cycles [41][46]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article posits that while gold's price increase reflects a decline in currency credibility, silver's price movements are more speculative and tied to its industrial use rather than a return to monetary status [95][97]. - The potential for silver prices to rise is acknowledged, with projections suggesting that silver could reach prices above $40 if the gold-silver ratio stabilizes around 80 [86][87]. - The article warns that while silver may follow gold's upward trend, its lack of intrinsic value as a currency could limit its price appreciation compared to gold [96][98].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The trading volume of financial options reached 7.83 million contracts, indicating relatively active trading in the financial options market. The trading volume of most varieties' PCR ratios was significantly lower than 1, suggesting that the call options in the options market were more popular than put options [1][3]. - The VIX of SSE CSI 500 ETF options rose by 0.40%. The VIX indexes of various ETF options on the SSE increased to varying degrees, the VIX of Shenzhen GEM ETF options on the SZSE rose by 1.09%, and the VIX index of CFFEX CSI 300 index options rose by 0.48% [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Quick View 1.1 Trading Volume and Open Interest - The closing prices, price changes, option trading volumes, option open interests, trading volume PCRs, and open interest PCRs of multiple options such as SSE SSE 50 ETF, SSE CSI 300 ETF, and SSE CSI 500 ETF were presented. For example, the closing price of SSE SSE 50 ETF was 2.715, with a price increase of 0.89%, trading volume of 1,285,515 contracts, and open interest of 1,594,677 contracts [5]. 1.2 Volatility - The implied volatility indexes (VIX), IV price changes (absolute values), skewness indexes, historical volatilities (30 - day and 90 - day), and implied - historical differences of multiple options were provided. For instance, the VIX of SSE SSE 50 ETF was 16.90, with an IV price increase of 0.60%, and a historical volatility of 21.94% (30 - day) [9]. 2. Product Research 2.1 SSE SSE 50 ETF Options - Charts related to the volatility smile curve, volatility term structure, VIX index, SKEW index, trading volume PCR, and open interest PCR were presented [14]. 2.2 SSE CSI 300 ETF Options - Similar to 2.1, relevant charts for SSE CSI 300 ETF options were provided, including the volatility smile curve, volatility term structure, etc. [17]. 2.3 SSE CSI 500 ETF Options - Charts of the volatility smile curve, volatility term structure, VIX index, SKEW index, trading volume PCR, and open interest PCR for SSE CSI 500 ETF options were shown [22]. 2.4 SSE STAR 50 ETF Options - Relevant charts for SSE STAR 50 ETF options, such as the volatility smile curve and volatility term structure, were presented [25]. 2.5 SSE STAR - BOARD 50 ETF Options - Similar to the above, charts related to SSE STAR - BOARD 50 ETF options were provided [29]. 2.6 SZSE CSI 300 ETF Options - Charts of the volatility smile curve, volatility term structure, VIX index, SKEW index, trading volume PCR, and open interest PCR for SZSE CSI 300 ETF options were shown [32]. 2.7 SZSE CSI 500 ETF Options - Relevant charts for SZSE CSI 500 ETF options, including the volatility smile curve and volatility term structure, were presented [36].

长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：张翼轸 来源：雪球 这次大跌 ， 对美股有信仰 ， 但又嫌弃仓位不够多的股民基民 ， 都想着加仓 ， 还来问什么位置合适 ？ 对于本轮美股的下跌 ， 作为一个波动率交易者 ， 还是要从波动率层面 ， 展开多聊聊 。 你或许已经在新闻中看到过 ， 伴随周五的大跌 ， VIX 指数创出了多年的高点 。 01 VIX背后的恐慌 什么是 VIX ？ VIX ， 全称是 芝加哥期权交易所 波动率指数 ， 它是根据 标普500指数 期权的隐含波动率反推出来的 ， 代表市场在未来30天内预期的年化波动水平 。 当市场情绪平稳 ， VIX多在15至20点之间游走 ； 而每当危 机爆发 ， 投资者急于对冲风险 ， VIX便会快速升高 。 它的本质是一种反映 " 担忧程度 " 的指标 ， 所以 也被成为 " 恐慌指标 " 。 周五收盘时 VIX 有多高 ？ 下图一目了然 。 45.31 点的位置 ， 是 2020 年 " 新冠疫情 " 以来的最高值 ， 和 2010 年 " 闪电崩盘 " 和 2011 年美国失去AAA 主权 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing structural adjustments, with small-cap indices leading the decline; the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 fell by 1.19% and 1.04% respectively this week[2] - The VIX index has shown a mild increase, indicating rising risk aversion, while the overall market sentiment remains optimistic[2] Derivatives Market Insights - The SKEW for CSI 300 and CSI 1000 remains stable within the historical 35-55% range, suggesting an overall optimistic market sentiment[4] - Conversely, the near-term SKEW for CSI 500 is above the 80% threshold, indicating heightened expectations for significant downside risks in the short term[4] Dividend Forecasts - For the year ahead, the predicted dividend points for CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 are 80.96, 80.99, 65.01, and 64.64 respectively[4] - The CSI 500 is expected to have no dividends in the current contract but forecasts dividends of 4.93, 47.11, and 80.54 in subsequent contracts[9] Risk Factors - The results presented are based on historical data and modeling, which may be subject to failure risks due to market volatility uncertainties[5]