Group 1 - Shandong Agricultural University Fertilizer Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Agricultural Technology") has completed the first round of inquiry letter responses, addressing 11 questions related to "business and technology," "reasonableness of performance changes," "reasonableness of large inventory," and "use of raised funds" [2] - Agricultural Technology's production capacity utilization rates for 2022 to 2024 are projected to be 65.14%, 68.72%, and 56.63%, respectively, indicating a year-on-year decline of 17.59% in 2024 [5] - The company plans to raise 552 million yuan through its IPO, which will be used for various projects, including a 300,000-ton annual production project for humic acid intelligent high tower compound fertilizer and a 150,000-ton annual production line for biological fertilizers [4] Group 2 - Agricultural Technology's main products include humic acid-enhanced fertilizers, controlled-release fertilizers, and water-soluble fertilizers, with its coated urea production and sales ranking first in the industry and humic acid compound fertilizers ranking second [4] - The inquiry letter highlights concerns regarding the reasonableness of Agricultural Technology's fundraising for capacity expansion, given its insufficient capacity utilization [2][5] - The overall fertilizer industry has experienced significant idle capacity, with average capacity utilization rates for listed companies in the sector being 47.07%, 52.78%, and 46.50% from 2022 to 2024 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current economic indicators and trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, providing insights into potential investment opportunities and market dynamics [2]. Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for May 2025 is 49.09, up 2.20% month-on-month [3] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in May 2025 is -5.6 percentage points, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [3] - The current price of London gold has decreased by 1.91% compared to last week [3] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - In early June 2025, the average daily output of key enterprises in crude steel is 2.159 million tons, an increase of 3.25% month-on-month [4] - Price changes this week include rebar at +0.00%, cement price index at -1.21%, rubber at +0.72%, coke at +0.00%, coking coal at -3.11%, and iron ore at -2.07% [4] - The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tire operating rates have changed by +0.21 percentage points, -5.90 percentage points, -1.8 percentage points, and +4.24 percentage points respectively [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass have changed by -1.45% and +0.00% respectively, with flat glass gross profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -921 yuan/ton [5] - The operating rate of flat glass this week is 75.34% [5] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at a five-year high of 78.29%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.31 percentage points [6] - Major commodity prices this week include cold-rolled steel at -0.27%, copper at -0.76%, and aluminum at -0.29%, with corresponding gross profit changes of +4.07%, -18.19%, and +4.71% [6] Subcategories - The capacity utilization rate of domestic alumina in May has dropped to a new low for 2023 [7] - The price of graphite electrodes is 18,000 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down 5.56% [7] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 20,700 yuan/ton, down 0.29%, with estimated profit at 3,146 yuan/ton (excluding tax), up 4.71% [7] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore this week is 4.19 [8] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 170 yuan/ton, while the price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 210 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton [8] - The price ratio of stainless steel hot-rolled to electrolytic nickel is 0.11 [8] Export Chain - In May 2025, China's PMI new export orders are at 47.50%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points month-on-month [9] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index this week is 1,342.46 points, up 8.00% [9] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 79.40%, down 0.10 percentage points [9] Valuation Percentiles - This week, the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.45%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being shipping at +1.06% [10] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel and industrial metals sectors relative to the CSI 300 is 32.05% and 62.94% respectively [10] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently 0.50, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Due to the recent geopolitical factors in the Middle East causing an increase in crude oil prices, the market's concern about the rise in production costs driving up the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber is gradually increasing. Production enterprise inventories are generally decreasing, while trade enterprise inventories are generally increasing. The supply price may remain firm under the influence of cost factors, but the downstream end - users' resistance to high prices is obvious. It is expected that the production and sales pressure will be difficult to ease. - Last week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises showed mixed trends. Enterprises' production scheduling has gradually returned to the normal level. Some enterprises moderately increased production to meet order demands, while a few enterprises suspended production due to power plant maintenance. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate is expected to be basically stable. The production scheduling of all - steel tire enterprises is temporarily stable, and the resumption of work of semi - steel tire enterprises under maintenance has a certain pulling effect on the overall capacity utilization rate. - With the cease - fire between Israel and Palestine and the decline in crude oil prices, the br2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,700 - 11,300 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,230 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 345 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The main contract position was 10,317, a decrease of 557. The 7 - 8 spread of synthetic rubber was 180 yuan/ton, and the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses was 800 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,750 yuan/ton, and that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,700 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,700 yuan/ton, and that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,750 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 245 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil was 71.48 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 5.53 US dollars/barrel. Naphtha CFR Japan was 470 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.5 US dollars/ton. The Northeast Asian ethylene price was 840 US dollars/ton, and the CFR China price of butadiene was 1,100 US dollars/ton. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. WTI crude oil was 68.51 US dollars/barrel [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 14.77 million tons/week, and the capacity utilization rate was 70.06%, an increase of 1.08 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 28,400 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 44.95%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 1.79 million tons, and the weekly capacity utilization rate was 66.32%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 1,163 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.34 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons. The manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 700 tons, and the trader's inventory increased by 610 tons to 6,820 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 78.29%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points, and that of all - steel tires was 65.48%, an increase of 4.24 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 1,182 million pieces, a decrease of 126 million pieces, and that of semi - steel tires was 5,415 million pieces, a decrease of 124 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 41.89 days, an increase of 0.15 days, and those of semi - steel tires were 47.42 days, an increase of 1.14 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of June 19, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 3.37 million tons, a decrease of 0.02 million tons compared to the previous period, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. - As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 71.54%, a month - on - month increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points. - In May 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared to April and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2].

2025 年 6 月 23 日 行业研究 5 月国内氧化铝产能利用率降至 2023 年以来新低 ——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.6.16-6.22） 要点 流动性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 5 月为-5.6 个百分点。（1）BCI 中小 企业融资环境指数 2025 年 5 月值为 49.09，环比上月+2.20%；（2）M1 和 M2 增速差与上证指数存在较强的正向相关性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 5 月为-5.6 个百分点，环比+0.9 个百分点；（3）本周伦敦金现价格环比上 周-1.91%。 基建和地产链条：6 月上旬重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量环比+3.25%。（1） 本周价格变动：螺纹+0.00%、水泥价格指数-1.21%、橡胶+0.72%、焦炭 +0.00%、焦煤-3.11%、铁矿-2.07%；（2）本周全国高炉产能利用率、水 泥、沥青、全钢胎开工率环比分别+0.21pct、-5.90pct、-1.8pct、 +4.24pct；（3）2025 年 6 月上旬，重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量为 215.90 万吨。 地产竣工链条：钛白粉、平板玻璃毛利润处于低位水平。本周钛白粉、 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Production enterprise inventories are generally decreasing, while trade enterprise inventories are generally increasing. Affected by cost factors, supply prices may remain firm, but downstream terminals clearly resist high prices. It is expected that the production and sales pressure will be difficult to ease. In the short - term, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to be basically stable, and the resumption of work of semi - steel tire enterprises under maintenance will drive the overall capacity utilization rate to a certain extent. The r2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,650 in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 10,874, a decrease of 2,322; the synthetic rubber 7 - 8 spread is 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber are 800 tons, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies (Qilu, Daqing, Maoming, etc.) has decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 77.01 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.84 dollars/barrel; Naphtha CFR Japan is 646.25 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.62 dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 840 dollars/ton, an increase of 10 dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,100 dollars/ton, an increase of 30 dollars/ton; WTI crude oil is 73.84 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.76 dollars/barrel; the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 14.77 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 70.06%, an increase of 1.08 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 28,400 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons; the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 44.95%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points; the monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.94 million tons, an increase of 1.79 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 66.32%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points; the weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is 587 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,163 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.34 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 26,950 tons, a decrease of 700 tons; the weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 6,820 tons, an increase of 610 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1,182,000 pieces, a decrease of 126,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5,415,000 pieces, a decrease of 124,000 pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 41.89 days, an increase of 0.15 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47.42 days, an increase of 1.14 days [2] Industry News - As of June 19, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 71.54%, a month - on - month increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points. In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Nengzhiguang New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. successfully passed the IPO review at the Beijing Stock Exchange, despite controversies surrounding its past regulatory issues and the foreign nationality of its actual controller's family [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue showed steady growth from 2022 to 2024, with figures of 556 million, 569 million, and 611 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 5.10%, 2.34%, and 7.38% respectively [1]. - Net profit figures for the same period were 21.86 million, 49.81 million, and 55.94 million yuan, with growth rates of -9.45%, +127.80%, and +12.31% respectively, indicating a significant profit increase in 2023 despite modest revenue growth [2][3]. - The company's gross profit margin improved from 12.03% in 2022 to 16.85% in 2023, contributing to the remarkable net profit growth [2]. R&D and Innovation - The company has faced challenges in its R&D projects, with some projects regressing from pilot to small-scale testing stages between 2024 and 2025 [3]. - R&D investment as a percentage of revenue was low, at 1.86%, 1.92%, and 2.16% from 2022 to 2024, which is below the industry average and the threshold for high-tech enterprises [5][6]. - Direct R&D expenses have also decreased, raising concerns about the company's innovation capabilities [5]. Production Capacity - The company's production capacity has not exceeded 50,000 tons during the reporting period, with the Ningbo plant at 30,000 tons and the Ganzhou plant below 20,000 tons [8]. - There is a discrepancy regarding the company's reported production capacity, with claims of over 90,000 tons on its website, leading to confusion about its actual capacity [10]. - The company plans to expand its production capacity by an additional 30,000 tons through a new project, but faces challenges in effectively utilizing this increased capacity given the current underutilization rates [12]. Financial Management - The company has a low debt ratio of 17.25% and generated a net cash flow of 68.91 million yuan from operating activities in 2024, indicating a strong financial position [12]. - Despite having cash reserves, the company plans to raise funds for working capital, which raises concerns about its financial strategy and investor treatment [13].

瑞达期货研究院 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「2025.06.20」 热轧卷板市场周报 终端需求好于预期 热卷期价震荡偏强 添加客服 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 目录 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至6月20日收盘，热卷主力合约期价为3116（+34），杭州涟钢热卷现货价格为3220（+30）。（单 位：元/吨） 2. 产量：热卷产量小幅提升。325.45（+0.8）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：终端需求韧性较强，表观需求回升。本期表需330.69（+10.81），（同比+11.75）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库与社库同步下滑。总库存340.17（-5.24），（同比-75.44）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率59.31%，环比上周增加0.87个百分点，同比去年增加7.36个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外， （1）以伊冲突不断升级加剧了人们对发生更广泛冲突的担忧，眼下全 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to recent geopolitical factors causing an upward trend in crude oil prices, the market's concern about the increase in production costs driving up the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber is gradually rising. Producers' inventory generally decreases, while traders' inventory generally increases. The supply price may remain firm under the influence of cost factors, but the downstream end shows obvious resistance to high prices, and it is expected that the production - sales pressure will be difficult to ease. [2] - This week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises showed mixed trends. Enterprises' production scheduling gradually returned to normal levels. Some enterprises moderately increased production to meet order demands, while a few enterprises suspended production due to power plant maintenance. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate is expected to remain basically stable. The production scheduling of all - steel tire enterprises is temporarily stable, and the resumption of production of semi - steel tire enterprises undergoing maintenance has a certain pulling effect on the overall capacity utilization rate. The r2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,400 - 11,900 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 11,770 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract was 15,134, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,643. The 7 - 8 spread of synthetic rubber was 140 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses was 800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 4,370 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong and Shanghai was 11,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 180 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 170 yuan/ton. [2] - Brent crude oil was 76.7 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.25 US dollars/barrel; naphtha CFR Japan was 633.13 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 7.5 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 820 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,070 US dollars/ton, with no change. WTI crude oil was 75.14 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.3 US dollars/barrel; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,500 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 14.77 million tons/week, with no change; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.96 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 21,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,000 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 45.12%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.88 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 139,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 17,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 65.03%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.22 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 576 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 306 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,900 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 27,650 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 650 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6,210 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 530 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 77.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 4.12 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 61.24%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.23 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 11.82 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.26 million; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 54.15 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.24 million. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 41.74 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.28 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.44 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of June 19, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 200 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. [2] - As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 71.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a week - on - week increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points. [2] - In May 2025, the sales volume of the heavy - truck market in China was about 83,000 (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared with April and a year - on - year increase of about 6% compared with 78,200 in the same period last year. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market in China was about 435,500, a year - on - year increase of about 1%. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the second half of 2025, external demand drag will gradually emerge, and the macro - economy is expected to face mild downward pressure due to the high base in Q4 of last year. The "supply stronger than demand" pattern will continue, and the pressure on both supply and demand will increase marginally. [3] - Policy will continue the tone of stabilizing growth, confidence, and assets. Active fiscal and monetary tools will be implemented to boost domestic demand, stabilize the real estate market, and promote industrial transformation and upgrading. [3] - In the second half of the year, RMB asset allocation will enter a rhythm where the bond market fluctuates at a high level, the stock market captures structural opportunities, and commodities fluctuate at the bottom waiting for a driver. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 2025 H2 Domestic Macroeconomic: New Balance of Supply and Demand - **Total**: The annual GDP growth rate is expected to remain stable, with a quarterly rhythm of high in the first half and low in the second half. The full - year GDP growth rate is predicted to be 4.74%. [6] - **Structure**: The "supply stronger than demand" pattern will continue. Supply - side indicators are expected to slow down slightly, and demand - side indicators may continue to hover at a relatively low level. [8][9] - **Export**: Although exports showed resilience in Jan - May 2025, the "front - loading of demand" caused by "rush - export" will lead to a decline in external demand later. [11] - **Manufacturing Investment**: The peak of the Juglar cycle has passed, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment is expected to be 8.3%, lower than the previous high - growth state. [16] - **Real Estate Chain Data**: China is in the middle - late stage of the downward Kuznets cycle. Real estate data is hovering at a low level, but policy support may reduce its impact on the economy. [23] - **Consumption**: Consumption growth is driven by policies, but the endogenous repair momentum is still weak. The total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 4.8%. [29] Policy: Stabilize Growth and Focus on Precise Regulation - **Monetary Policy**: It will maintain a moderately loose tone. The next round of easing is more likely to occur from September to Q4, with structural policies being the main focus before that. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate is expected to have a 10BP cut. [34][36] - **Fiscal Policy**: It is divided into in - budget and off - budget policies. In - budget policies are expected to increase the fiscal deficit in the second half of the year. The actual fiscal expenditure in Jan - Apr increased by 7.2% year - on - year. [39][42] Tactics of Asset Allocation under Macroeconomic Contradictions - **Macroeconomic Contradictions**: The economy showed a good start in Q1 but returned to normal in Q2. Real - economy profit recovery and domestic consumption repair need stronger policy support. [46] - **Asset Performance**: Commodities are in a bottom - oscillating market without a clear upward driver. Bonds will fluctuate at a high level, and the stock market will present a dumbbell - shaped structural market. [60][63]

数据来源于第三方，仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 样本企业产能利用率恢复性提升。 复至常规水平，上周国内轮胎企业产能利用率环比提升，预计短期轮胎企业产能利用率小幅波动为主。ru2 天然橡胶产业日报 2025-06-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14010 | 140 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12330 | 190 | | | 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -860 | -15 20号胶7-8价差(日,元/吨) | 50 | -15 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 1680 | -50 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 156240 | -293 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 22667 | -3079 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -17204 | 1020 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -5862 | -3849 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 1931 ...