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亲历两轮牛市的老股民:靠这几招,把运气变成了能力
雪球· 2025-12-22 07:32
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that a bull market is not just about high points on a K-line chart, but also represents an opportunity for investors to upgrade their understanding and achieve long-term growth [1] Group 2 - The initial entry into the A-share market for the interviewees was influenced by specific articles and market conditions, with one participant entering in late 2006 after reading about closed-end funds, achieving a 180% return in the first year [3][4] - The second participant described their experience during the 2006-2007 bull market as an "enlightenment movement," which opened the door to the investment industry despite not retaining profits [3][4] Group 3 - The investment methodology of one participant was shaped by a chance discovery of the opportunity in closed-end funds, utilizing quantitative investment strategies influenced by their professional background in management [6] - The second participant transitioned to value investing after reading Warren Buffett's "The Snowball," which fundamentally changed their investment perspective [7] Group 4 - In the 2014-2015 market, one participant identified structural opportunities in water and insurance stocks, emphasizing the importance of understanding business models over technical analysis [10] - Another participant experienced a significant turning point in 2015, utilizing a niche strategy with leveraged funds to achieve a 24% return during a market adjustment [11][12] Group 5 - The discussion on convertible bonds highlighted their core advantage of "asymmetry," where the bond's price movements are less volatile compared to the underlying stock, leading to consistent long-term gains [14][15] Group 6 - The suitability for value investing is linked to personal traits such as caution, rationality, and a desire for continuous learning, with a three-tiered approach to finding one's investment method: ideological alignment, mastering fundamentals, and ongoing evolution [17][18][19]
深度解析泉果刚登峰,为何这时更需要关注他?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-22 06:29
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of time in investment, highlighting the growth of a fund manager's credibility and trustworthiness over a longer career span [1][2]. Group 1: Background of the Fund Manager - The fund manager, Gang Dengfeng, has 16 years of experience in the securities industry and 11 years in investment management, evolving from a novice to a seasoned professional [2]. - Gang Dengfeng's early career was shaped by his exposure to value investing principles at Dongfang Securities, which laid a strong foundation for his investment philosophy [4][5]. - The investment philosophy of Gang Dengfeng is influenced by his early experiences and the quality of the team he worked with at Dongfang Securities [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy and Framework - Gang Dengfeng's investment framework is characterized by a focus on quality growth with a mid-level industry perspective, aiming for sustainable opportunities rather than speculative gains [8][31]. - The investment strategy prioritizes holding high-quality companies with strong financial metrics and competent management, leading to a low turnover rate in his portfolio [13][35]. - The concentration of holdings has increased over time, with the top ten holdings' concentration rising from 36.40% at the end of 2023 to 58.67% by the end of Q3 2025 [35]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - The fund managed by Gang Dengfeng, Quan Guo Si Yuan, has shown a net value growth rate of 32.28% over the past year, significantly outperforming the benchmark [21]. - The fund's turnover rates were recorded at 66.87% for 2023, 96.65% for 2024, and 115.48% for the first half of 2025, indicating a strategy focused on long-term holdings [31][32]. - The fund's maximum drawdown was -13.76% over the past year, compared to -21.04% for the CSI 300 index, demonstrating better risk management [16][37]. Group 4: Market Context and Future Outlook - The current market environment is seen as favorable for active equity funds, with a shift towards shareholder returns and dividends in the A-share market [19]. - The article suggests that the quality investment style may see a resurgence after a prolonged downturn, as high-quality companies are expected to perform better in a recovering economic environment [21]. - The increasing demand for equity investments among residents is noted, as traditional low-risk assets have become less attractive [19].
深度解析泉果刚登峰,为何这时更需要关注他?
点拾投资· 2025-12-22 06:19
导读:在投资中最重要的函数是时间。爱因斯坦说过,复利是第八大奇迹。时间越长,复利的威力越大。对于基金经理 的研究来说,时间也是考察基金经理几乎最重要的因素。时间越长,能看到一个越真实的基金经理,也更容易建立对他 的信任。 我早在2009年刚入行的时候,就认识了彼时在东方证券资产管理业务总部做研究员的刚登峰。我们几乎是同一个时间 入行,见证了彼此在不同赛道的成长。我还记得第一次交换名片时,他笑着对我说"我叫刚登峰,刚刚登上山峰"。 入门就学价值投资 我们在访谈基金的时候,通常第一个问题是关于他的成长经历。在访谈了超过几百位基金经理后,我们发现一个人最初 接触的领域和方法论,对塑造他之后的投资框架会产生极大的影响。这就类似于大部分人都深受原生家庭的影响。比如 说,入行看科技股的人,投资方法会更容易偏向极致的成长。入行看金融地产的人,投资方法更容易偏向低估值。入行 看消费的人,投资方法更容易偏向质量。比方法论更重要的是,一个基金经理投资价值观的形成。 刚登峰是幸运的,他刚毕业就加入了东方证券资产管理业务总部,进入了一个非常好的"原生家庭"。当年的东方证券资 产管理业务总部尚在"低调发展"中,但大腕级投资管理人已然不 ...
今年以来A股上市公司现金分红达2.61万亿元 创历史新高
Cai Jing Wang· 2025-12-22 03:13
据Wind数据,截至发稿,以股权登记日计算,今年以来A股上市公司现金分红总额达到2.61万亿元,创 出历史新高。 Wind数据显示,今年以来,A股上市公司迈瑞医疗、三七互娱、御银股份和玲珑轮胎分红次数均为三 次。山东路桥、雅戈尔、深圳华强、奕帆传动、陕国投A、鱼跃医疗、行动教育、南山铝业、隆扬电 子、艾融软件、分众传媒、药明康德、百龙创园、吉比特、华宝股份、新坐标、龙佰集团、远翔新材、 华明装备、卓创资讯、九强生物、金帝股份、开普检测、西部证券、海希通讯、开能健康、金能科技、 金岭矿业、国光股份和吉电股份分红次数均为两次。 自2022年底中央经济工作会议首次将"红利纳入资本市场改革方向"以来,监管层围绕上市公司现金分红 持续发力,政策密度和执行强度显著增强。申万宏源分析师杨俊文表示,分红政策体系已从倡导层面进 入刚性落实阶段,不仅提升了高股息资产的确定性,也显著强化了高分红策略的因子有效性与选股基 础。 回顾近期的市场行情,在无风险利率持续走低的环境下,权益资产吸引力明显。"头部公司的引领示范 清晰地向市场传递了一个积极信号——国内核心资产具备为投资者提供持续、稳定现金回报的能力,价 值投资的压舱石作用愈发凸 ...
中证红利质量ETF(159209)强势四连涨!盘中揽金近600万,获连续第6日增仓
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-22 02:48
| 中证红利质量ETF | | | 159209 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | +0.002 +0.17% | | | SZSE CNY 10:35:21 交易中 | | COH | | | 净值走势 | | 招商中证全指红利质量ETF | | | 实时申购赎回信息 | | 申购 赎回 | | | 笔数 | | 5 0 | | | 金额 | | 0 0 | | | 份额 | 500万 | 0 | | | 印ច精度 | | | | | 最小申赎单位份额 | | 1,000,000 | | | 现金替代比例上限 | | 50% | | | 申购赎回允许情况 | | 申购赎回皆允许 | | | T日预估现金差额 | | -26634.99元 | | | T-1日单位申赎资产 | | 1170146.01元 | | | 近5日净流入 | | 单位(万元) | | | 2398 | | | | | | | 1514 | | | 924 | | 584 | | | 231 | | | | | 12-15 12-16 | 12-17 | 12-18 12-19 | | 12月22日,数 ...
为什么止损也能让账户破产?
3 6 Ke· 2025-12-22 02:14
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the controversial topic of "stop-loss" strategies in investing, highlighting a recent paper by Nassim Nicholas Taleb that quantifies the effects of stop-loss through Monte Carlo simulations, suggesting that stop-loss may lead to more losses rather than preventing them [1][2]. Summary by Sections Stop-Loss Strategy Analysis - The paper presents a key graph showing the distribution of returns with and without stop-loss, indicating that while stop-loss can reduce the probability of large losses, it also creates a peak of losses at the stop-loss threshold, termed "Dirac Mass" [5][6]. - In a market with a volatility of 20-25%, a fixed 10% stop-loss has a 50% chance of being triggered, which is higher than many investors expect [5][6]. - For A-shares, particularly in small-cap and tech stocks, the annualized volatility can reach 60%, resulting in an 85% chance of triggering a 10% stop-loss [6]. Recommendations for Stop-Loss - The paper suggests that a fixed stop-loss below 20% is ineffective against random noise and should be reconsidered [6]. - Stop-loss levels should be adjusted based on market volatility; in low-volatility markets, a 10% stop-loss may only trigger 15% of the time, making it a viable strategy [6]. - Fixed percentage stop-losses are not ideal; investors should consider their investment strategy and fundamentals to set stop-loss levels that are unlikely to be triggered under normal conditions [7]. Practical Issues with Stop-Loss - The article identifies three main issues that can exacerbate the negative impact of stop-loss on accounts: 1. Poor opportunity selection can lead to unnecessary stop-loss triggers, as illustrated by the trading experiences of Jesse Livermore [11]. 2. Trading in a non-trending, volatile market can result in frequent stop-loss triggers, leading to cumulative losses [12]. 3. High leverage increases the risk of permanent losses, making stop-loss more critical but also amplifying its negative effects [13]. Value Investing Perspective - Value investors, like Warren Buffett, typically do not advocate for stop-loss based on price declines, as they view such declines as opportunities to buy more shares at a discount [17]. - Instead of price-based stop-loss, value investors should focus on fundamental changes in the investment thesis to determine when to exit a position [18][19].
杨德龙:高息时代结束普通人如何稳健理财?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-22 01:35
Group 1 - The core idea is that successful investing does not require high intelligence but rather adherence to investment principles, emotional control, and value investing [1][5][3] - Investors should identify their "circle of competence" and only invest in areas they understand, avoiding investments in companies they do not comprehend [1][5][3] Group 2 - Emotional control is crucial; investors should not let their emotions dictate their investment decisions, especially during market fluctuations [2][6][7] - Patience and determination are essential; short-term speculation is discouraged, and investors should be prepared to hold stocks for the long term [2][7][3] Group 3 - Many believe that only those with high IQ can succeed in investing, but qualities like persistence, patience, and passion are more important [3][7] - Ordinary investors should have confidence in their ability to succeed in investing through effort and a genuine interest in the market [3][7]
基金忠言|个人养老金怎么管?多家公司成“活教材”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-22 01:33
据了解,兴证全球在个人养老金业务的发展方面,积累了以下三个方面的宝贵经验: 一是起步早,投入大。 蓝鲸新闻12月22日讯(记者 祁和忠)2022年11月25日,个人养老金制度在国内36个城市(地区)试点,并自2024年12月15日起,在全国实 施。针对个人养老金业务,公募基金设立了基金Y份额。各大基金公司在Y份额基金的过程中,积累了大量正反两方面的经验与教训,成为生 动的"活教材"。 一方面,少数公司发生的教训比较深刻。近两年来,鹏华、创金合信等多家基金公司都出现了旗下养老目标基金清盘的案例,其中,鹏华长乐 稳健养老Y份额去年5月清盘时,基金净值低于1元。 个人养老金制度是强制性的长期投资。投资者在申购Y份额基金后,人未老,基金却早早清盘,这会影响投资者的信心。 个人养老金基金的发展,是价值投资和长期投资的"试金石"。鹏华、永赢等基金公司通过押注式投资,吸引了巨大的流量和资金,但它们旗下 养老目标基金Y份额的规模都很小,其中,鹏华基金合计约2亿元,永赢基金只有约57万元。 另一方面,一些公司取得的经验弥足珍贵。截至2025年三季度末,全市场个人养老金基金Y份额合计规模约151亿元,其中,华夏、易方达、 兴证全 ...
A股新纪录!今年以来上市公司现金分红总额达2.61万亿 创历史新高
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-22 00:18
据Wind数据,截至发稿,以股权登记日计算,今年以来A股上市公司现金分红总额达到2.61万亿元,创 出历史新高。 Wind数据显示,今年以来,A股上市公司迈瑞医疗、三七互娱、御银股份和玲珑轮胎分红次数均为三 次。山东路桥、雅戈尔、深圳华强、奕帆传动、陕国投A、鱼跃医疗、行动教育、南山铝业、隆扬电 子、艾融软件、分众传媒、药明康德、百龙创园、吉比特、华宝股份、新坐标、龙佰集团、远翔新材、 华明装备、卓创资讯、九强生物、金帝股份、开普检测、西部证券、海希通讯、开能健康、金能科技、 金岭矿业、国光股份和吉电股份分红次数均为两次。 自2022年底中央经济工作会议首次将"红利纳入资本市场改革方向"以来,监管层围绕上市公司现金分红 持续发力,政策密度和执行强度显著增强。申万宏源分析师杨俊文表示,分红政策体系已从倡导层面进 入刚性落实阶段,不仅提升了高股息资产的确定性,也显著强化了高分红策略的因子有效性与选股基 础。 回顾近期的市场行情,在无风险利率持续走低的环境下,权益资产吸引力明显。"头部公司的引领示范 清晰地向市场传递了一个积极信号——国内核心资产具备为投资者提供持续、稳定现金回报的能力,价 值投资的压舱石作用愈发凸 ...
A股,新纪录!
证券时报· 2025-12-22 00:12
据Wind数据,截至发稿,以股权登记日计算 ,今年以来A股上市公司现金分红总额达到2.61 万亿元,创出历史新高。 Wind数据显示,今年以来, A股上市公司迈瑞医疗、三七互娱、御银股份和玲珑轮胎分红次 数均为三次。 山东路桥、雅戈尔、深圳华强、奕帆传动、陕国投A、鱼跃医疗、行动教育、 南山铝业、隆扬电子、艾融软件、分众传媒、药明康德、百龙创园、吉比特、华宝股份、新 坐标、龙佰集团、远翔新材、华明装备、卓创资讯、九强生物、金帝股份、开普检测、西部 证券、海希通讯、开能健康、金能科技、金岭矿业、国光股份和吉电股份分红次数均为两 次。 自2022年底中央经济工作会议首次将"红利纳入资本市场改革方向"以来,监管层围绕上市公 司现金分红持续发力,政策密度和执行强度显著增强。申万宏源分析师杨俊文表示,分红政 策体系已从倡导层面进入刚性落实阶段,不仅提升了高股息资产的确定性,也显著强化了高 分红策略的因子有效性与选股基础。 回顾近期的市场行情,在无风险利率持续走低的环境下,权益资产吸引力明显。"头部公司的 引领示范清晰地向市场传递了一个积极信号——国内核心资产具备为投资者提供持续、稳定 现金回报的能力,价值投资的压舱石作 ...