特朗普本想趁火打劫韩国，赚取一波红利给美国续命，如今却不得不面临最坏的情况。 4月28日，韩国贸易、工业和能源部副部长朴成泽明确表示，在6月3日总统补选前，韩国与美国达成贸易协议，"在理论上是不可能的"。 朴成泽的这一表态，直接浇灭了美国在7月8日关税暂停到期前完成谈判的期待。 特朗普上台100天，美国就出现了"债股汇"三杀，经济衰退已经成为了一个极大概率事件。 为了打好太极，韩国代总统韩德洙已经做了万全准备。韩国方面4月28日证实，韩德洙极可能在5月1日到3日期间宣布辞职，并参加总统竞选。其竞选团队已 开始组建，部分幕僚提前离职做准备。 若参选，他将面临共同民主党候选人李在明的强劲挑战，李在明的民调支持率已经超过了50%。再加上尹锡悦、金建希等人正在遭遇多项调查，韩德洙所在 的国民力量党，赢得本届韩国总统大选的概率相当渺茫。 就是在这种情况下，国民力量党还推出了至少七八名竞选者，这使得韩德洙更难进一步集中选票。 要知道，韩德洙本人也曾因"内乱罪"指控，被国会弹劾，后遭宪法法院驳回。可以说，韩德洙赢得总统大选的概率并不大，他这样做的目的，可能就是让韩 国政府找到办法，拒绝向美国政府大幅出让经济利益。 需要注意 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the current market for gold is still in a transitional phase, with potential for further price increases due to unresolved tariff issues and a "stagflation-like" environment [1][3][7] - The analysis indicates that the gold market has not yet reached a "crowded" trading zone, suggesting there is still room for additional capital inflow [17] - The article emphasizes a "buy-and-hold" strategy as more advantageous in the current market conditions, with a higher success rate for short-term trading strategies based on volume and price [18] Group 2 - From a fundamental perspective, the article outlines four phases of gold price behavior during financial crises, indicating that the current market is transitioning from the second phase to the third phase [3][7] - The article highlights that the market's pricing of inflation and growth is not fully accounting for the potential "inflation" effects, which could further support gold prices [7] - The article provides a detailed table summarizing the attitudes of major economies towards U.S. tariff issues, indicating varying degrees of response and potential impacts on global trade [8] Group 3 - The article notes that the current gold trading volume is above the average line, but still below historical "most crowded" levels, indicating potential for further accumulation [17] - The analysis of trading strategies shows that the 5-day and 20-day moving average strategies have the highest success rates, while longer-term strategies may reduce effectiveness [18][28] - The article suggests that the ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties, particularly regarding U.S.-China relations and tariff negotiations, will continue to influence gold prices [7][29]

豆油 证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-05-06投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕2月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前 马棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8080，基差248，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：4月7日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲 软。国内对加菜加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。中美关系恶化关税 问题影响市 ...

阿波罗全球管理公司首席执行官：特朗普政府在关税问题上的做法是正确的，但方法错误。 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 05 年 月 日 纺织服饰 周专题：adidas 公司 2025Q1 营收增长 13%，表现优异 【本周专题】 adidas 公司 2025Q1 营收增长 13%，表现超预期。adidas 披露 2025Q1 季 报，货币中性基础上营收同比增长 13%至 61.53 亿欧元，毛利率同比提升 0.9pcts 至 52.1%，经营利润同比大幅增长 82%至 6.1 亿欧元。截至 3 月末公司 库存同比增长 15%至 50.72 亿欧元，库存增加主要为了支持业务发展，库存处于 健康状态。 展望 2025 年：公司维持此前对于 2025 年的指引，预计 2025 年公司营收同比 增长高单位数，其中 adidas 品牌营收同比增长双位数。2025Q1 整体表现超公司 预期，然而当前美国关税问题或对公司业绩造成负面影响，综合考虑 Q1 表现以 及关税事件的不确定性因素后，公司维持此前指引。 分地区看：2025Q1 欧洲/大中华区业务增长亮眼，拉丁美洲业务持续快速增长。 1）欧洲&北美：货币中性基础上 2025Q1 北美业务营收同比增长 2.8%至 11 ...

新台币升值引发亚币重新估值猜测 财经网站Forexlive：新台币兑美元汇率飙升，重新引发了人们的猜测，即一些亚洲国家正计划重估本币 汇率，以换取美国在关税问题上的让步（外币升值会增加本国出口产品的边际成本）。今天美元全面走 低，包括兑离岸人民币的汇率。 ...

美国国务卿鲁比奥5月1日接受美国媒体采访时表示"美国财政部长贝森特也将参与，相关磋商很快将启 动"，但未透露具体时间。中国承认美方主动接触，并表示"正在进行评估"…… 美国国务卿鲁比奥5月1日在接受美国福克斯新闻（FOX News）采访时表示，预计中美将在近期就关税 问题展开磋商。他表示："美国财政部长贝森特也将参与，相关磋商很快将启动"，但未透露具体时间。 自4月以来，美国已对中国产品累计加征了145%的附加关税。作为反制，中国也对美国商品加征了最高 达125%的关税。尽管美国总统特朗普呼吁中方展开关税谈判，但中国此前未作出回应。 鲁比奥指出："中方已经（与我们）接触，并表示希望会谈。我们方面也已有相关人士参与"。他同时表 示："美国应该成为一个能在本土生产更多商品的国家。这是减少对中国依赖的警钟，我们过去过于依 赖了"。 该媒体分析认为，"美国一定是更着急的一方"，指出背景原因是"特朗普政府面临多重压力，首先就是 经济压力，其次是舆论压力"。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）坂口幸裕 华盛顿、盐崎健太郎 北京 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 http ...

Group 1 - The impact of tariffs on various industries is significant, with the U.S. relying heavily on imports of manufactured goods from China, while China imports mainly commodities from the U.S. [4] - Over 70% of products imported by the U.S. from China account for 36% of total imports, while only 10% of products imported by China from the U.S. have a similar reliance [4] - The contribution of exports to the U.S. from China is less than 3% of China's GDP, indicating that excessive tariffs may not significantly harm China's economy [4] Group 2 - Tariffs are expected to indirectly affect the profitability of Chinese companies through a slowdown in global GDP growth, with Goldman Sachs lowering its U.S. economic growth forecast for Q4 2025 from 2.5% to 0.5% [5][6] - The anticipated increase in China's fiscal deficit to 14.5% of GDP and a 60 basis point cut in interest rates are expected to mitigate some of the negative impacts of tariffs [6] Group 3 - The Chinese government may increase fiscal support for affected export products and consider measures to assist the 10-20 million jobs linked to exports to the U.S. [7] - Infrastructure projects may be expedited to stimulate GDP growth amidst trade tensions [7] Group 4 - The current market response to U.S.-China relations is less intense than in previous years, with the Goldman Sachs U.S.-China Relations Index indicating lower pressure compared to the peaks of 2022-2023 [8][9] Group 5 - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing the A-share market have shown effectiveness, with a focus on attracting long-term investments and improving shareholder returns [10] - The national team's intervention has provided market stability, with sufficient liquidity support available if needed [11] Group 6 - Overseas funds have increased their positions in Chinese stocks, particularly in the AI sector, with a notable rise in allocations to emerging markets and Asia [12] - A-shares are expected to outperform H-shares in the next three months due to domestic investor stability and government support [13][14] Group 7 - Key sectors to watch include consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and government-related industries, which are expected to be less negatively impacted by external risks [15][16] Group 8 - The likelihood of Chinese companies being forced to delist from U.S. markets is lower than in previous trade disputes, as many have already listed in Hong Kong [17] Group 9 - The extent of tariff increases will depend on the desired outcomes, balancing revenue generation and the potential loss of exports [18] Group 10 - The recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields has raised questions about who is selling U.S. debt, with diversification of foreign reserves being a potential factor [19]

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices have been experiencing a significant decline, with London spot gold dropping over 2% to $3222.32 per ounce and COMEX gold futures down 2.6% to $3232.9 per ounce as of May 1 [2] - Several gold jewelry brands have reduced their prices, with some falling below 1000 yuan per gram, such as Lao Miao at 995 yuan, Chow Sang Sang at 1002 yuan, and Chow Tai Fook at 1009 yuan [2][4] - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand reached 1206 tons in Q1 2025, a 1% year-on-year increase, with investment demand soaring by 170% to 551.9 tons [5] Group 2: Oil Market - International crude oil futures saw a sharp decline, with Brent and NYMEX crude oil futures dropping by 1.72% and 1.92% respectively on May 1 [6] - Analysts suggest that oil prices are facing short-term uncertainties due to upcoming OPEC+ production policy meetings and ongoing tariff negotiations between the US and other countries [6][7] - Despite the recent price drop, short-term inventory pressure in the oil market remains manageable [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce emphasizes its readiness for dialogue with the U.S. regarding trade issues, while also insisting that the U.S. must show sincerity by correcting its unilateral tariff measures [1] Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Negotiations - The U.S. has expressed willingness to negotiate with China on tariff issues, indicating a potential for dialogue [1] - China is currently evaluating the U.S. proposals and communications regarding trade negotiations [1] - The Chinese stance remains firm: if the U.S. does not correct its unilateral tariff actions, it demonstrates a lack of sincerity in negotiations [1] Group 2: Tariff and Trade War Context - The trade war and tariff conflict were initiated unilaterally by the U.S., and China is prepared to respond accordingly [1] - China highlights that any dialogue must be based on the U.S. taking concrete actions to rectify its previous mistakes, particularly the imposition of additional tariffs [1] - The Chinese government warns against the U.S. using negotiations as a facade for coercion or intimidation [1]