2025 年 09 月 14 日 十五五将全力因地制宜推进要素市 场化改革 ——《关于全国部分地区要素市场化配置综合改革试点实 施方案的批复》点评 相关研究 证券分析师 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 (8621)23297818× chengxiang@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 略 研 究 研 究 报 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 A 股 策 略 证 券 告 - ⚫ 事件：9 月 11 日，国务院对外发布《关于全国部分地区要素市场化配置综合改革试点实 施方案的批复》，同意自即日（9 月 8 日）起 2 年内开展北京城市副中心、苏南重点城 市、杭甬温、合肥都市圈、福厦泉、郑州市、长株潭、粤港澳大湾区内地九市、重庆市、 成都市等 10 个要素市场化配置综合改革试点。 ⚫ 要素市场化配置改革是建设全国统一大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the recent shifts in the U.S. labor market, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks in the current economic landscape [8][12][24]. Deep Dive Topic - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes industrial restructuring and the signals from central authorities regarding adjustments in industrial structure, aiming to understand the pathways from the previous five-year plan and how the new plan will be implemented [8]. Hot Topics - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for August showed a cooling trend, leading the market to shift from "rate cut trading" to "recession trading." The employment market's weakness raises questions about the extent of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12]. - A recent surge in overseas risk-free interest rates has triggered a sell-off in global sovereign bonds, prompting discussions on the reasons and sustainability of this market behavior [12][24]. - The article critiques the misconception that the decline in exports is due to a "rush to export," asserting that the August trade data reflects broader economic conditions rather than a simple market reaction [17]. High-Frequency Tracking - The analysis of August's CPI indicates that core inflation is no longer the primary concern for the Federal Reserve, with limited transmission of tariffs on goods inflation and a weakening trend in super-core service inflation [21]. - The commentary on commodity price increases suggests that while upstream price hikes have positively impacted PPI, low capacity utilization in downstream sectors continues to exert downward pressure on PPI [18].

Group 1: Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes the importance of cultivating regional comparative advantages through four key aspects: location advantages, institutional advantages, market advantages, and brand advantages [1][24] - It suggests that the "14th Five-Year Plan" should focus on identifying, nurturing, and promoting local advantages to enhance regional competitiveness and economic quality [1][24] Group 2: Location Advantages - Location advantages have expanded significantly with the rapid development of the flow economy and regional strategies, necessitating cities to leverage urban clusters and innovate development paths [2][4] - Cities should integrate their development into urban clusters and enhance transportation connectivity to improve regional economic efficiency [3][4] Group 3: Institutional Advantages - Institutional advantages are crucial for regional competition and should focus on creating a market-oriented, law-based, and international business environment [6][7] - The article highlights the need for substantial improvements in the business environment to lower costs for enterprises and enhance their competitiveness [7][9] Group 4: Market Advantages - Market advantages are identified as the core engine for activating regional economic momentum, with a focus on expanding consumption markets and promoting the integration of various market elements [13][14] - The article stresses the importance of leveraging local characteristics to develop unique consumption markets and enhance regional economic vitality [15][16] Group 5: Brand Advantages - Brand advantages are essential for enhancing city image and attracting industries, talent, and capital [19][20] - The article recommends a systematic approach to brand building, focusing on unique cultural elements and integrating them with local industries to create distinctive city brands [20][21] Group 6: Overall Strategy - The article concludes that fostering regional comparative advantages is vital for addressing chaotic competition and guiding differentiated regional development [24]

Group 1: Company Performance and Strategy - The company achieved significant improvement in performance in the first half of 2025, particularly in Q2, exceeding market expectations due to internal reforms, cost reduction, and efficiency enhancements [3] - The steel industry faced a supply strong and demand weak situation, with the company focusing on customer-centric market operations and continuous internal reforms [3] - The company plans to maintain a market-oriented operational mechanism and enhance differentiated product development [3] Group 2: Impact of Trade Policies - The company has zero direct exports to the U.S. and has canceled its U.S. operations due to trade policy changes and increased trade disputes since 2020 [4] - The company is building overseas channels and has opened the China-Europe Railway Express to enhance export competitiveness [4] - Confidence in achieving annual export targets remains high, supported by the Belt and Road Initiative [4] Group 3: Industry Trends and Challenges - The domestic stainless steel production capacity is approximately 53 million tons, with a consumption volume of only 33 million tons, leading to intense market competition [6] - In the first half of 2025, stainless steel production increased by 5.3%, while consumption grew by 3.1%, indicating a supply surplus [6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued guidelines to stabilize growth in the steel industry, focusing on supply-demand coordination and capacity control [7] Group 4: Environmental and Sustainability Initiatives - The company's environmental operating costs for 2024 are projected to be 2.6 billion yuan, translating to 208 yuan per ton of steel [6] - The company is committed to sustainable development and has been recognized as a leading green factory, with low-carbon stainless steel products certified internationally [6] - Investment of nearly 800 million yuan has been made in recent years for technological upgrades to support green manufacturing and product development [8] Group 5: Future Goals and Innovations - The company aims to enhance product high-end positioning and focus on green technology breakthroughs during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][5] - Plans include increasing the proportion of green products and achieving a 30% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030, contributing to the steel industry's carbon neutrality goal by 2050 [8] - The company is leveraging AI technology to redefine steel manufacturing, improving production efficiency and quality [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for strategic determination and confidence in the face of complex changes in both international and domestic environments, as highlighted in the Central Political Bureau meeting on July 30 [1][5] - The "three faces" proposed by the 20th Central Committee provide a crucial perspective for understanding the changes in the "15th Five-Year Plan," indicating that the development environment is undergoing profound and complex transformations [1][3] - The need to adapt to new expectations from the public, including demands for quality, sustainability, and fairness, is essential for planning the "15th Five-Year Plan" [3][5] Group 2 - The article discusses the importance of recognizing both changes and constants in the context of reform, emphasizing that while certain aspects may change, the strategic direction and goals remain steadfast [5][6] - The necessity of maintaining a balance between change and stability is highlighted, indicating that while the environment is changing, the foundational strengths of the economy, such as resilience and potential, have not altered [5][7] - The call for proactive identification and response to changes, including the need to navigate risks and seize opportunities, is a recurring theme in the planning for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][3][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for strategic determination and confidence in the face of complex changes in both international and domestic environments, as highlighted in the planning for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2][4] - The "three faces" proposed by the 20th National Congress provide a critical perspective for understanding the changes in the "15th Five-Year Plan," indicating that the development environment is undergoing profound and complex transformations [2][4] - The need to adapt to new expectations from the public, including demands for quality, sustainability, and fairness, is crucial in the planning process for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [4][5] Group 2 - The article discusses the importance of recognizing both "change" and "stability" in the context of reform, emphasizing that while the environment is changing, the fundamental economic strengths and long-term positive trends remain unchanged [9][10] - It highlights the necessity of understanding the interplay between favorable and unfavorable changes, advocating for proactive measures to leverage opportunities and mitigate risks [5][7] - The concept of "guarding against black swans and gray rhinos" is introduced, stressing the importance of risk prevention and management in the face of global uncertainties [5][7]

Core Insights - Recent focus by provincial party and government leaders on ecological environment protection indicates a strong commitment to addressing pollution issues and fulfilling the "14th Five-Year Plan" goals [1][2][4] - The urgency to identify and tackle shortcomings in pollution prevention efforts is emphasized, with leaders taking proactive measures to ensure accountability and effective implementation [2][3] Group 1: Leadership Actions - Provincial leaders are conducting collective discussions, evaluations, and on-site inspections to reinforce responsibilities at all levels [1][2] - Specific actions include the rapid response of local officials to pollution issues, such as multiple inspections and direct accountability measures [2][3] Group 2: Strategic Focus Areas - Key areas of concern include air pollution control and addressing feedback from central ecological inspections, highlighting the need for targeted remediation efforts [1][2] - The emphasis on problem-oriented approaches reflects a commitment to overcoming existing challenges in pollution control [1][2] Group 3: Future Planning - Successful completion of current tasks is crucial for informing the next "15th Five-Year Plan," ensuring that future strategies are based on real experiences and identified gaps [4] - The need for systematic summarization of current challenges and successful practices is highlighted to enhance the scientific basis for future ecological policies [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for strategic determination and confidence in the face of complex changes in both international and domestic environments, as highlighted in the Central Political Bureau meeting on July 30 [1][6] - The "three faces" proposed by the 20th Central Committee provide important perspectives for understanding the changes in the "15th Five-Year Plan," indicating that the development environment is undergoing profound and complex changes, with both strategic opportunities and risks [1][3] - The emphasis on adapting to new expectations from the people reflects a shift in public demand towards quality, sustainability, and fairness, which must be carefully considered in the planning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [3][5] Group 2 - The planning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" requires a comprehensive understanding of both changes and constants, recognizing that while the environment is changing, the foundational strengths of the economy remain stable and robust [6][8] - The need to navigate both "black swan" and "gray rhino" events is crucial, with a focus on proactively preventing and mitigating risks while seizing favorable changes [3][5] - The importance of maintaining a balance between change and stability is underscored, with a call for reform that is principled and directed, ensuring that necessary changes are made while preserving core values and goals [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the defense and military industry for the first half of 2025 [3]. Core Viewpoints - The defense industry is experiencing a recovery in overall performance, with revenue and profit showing positive year-on-year growth [2][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the next-generation equipment and the rapid development of unmanned and counter-unmanned weaponry starting in 2025 [4][5]. - The industry is expected to benefit from increased global military trade and a favorable domestic demand environment, leading to a sustained growth trajectory [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Industry Conditions - The military industry shows a recovery in its economic climate, with revenue and profit increasing year-on-year [18]. - In the first half of 2025, the military industry achieved revenue of 304.9 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.39% increase year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 5.03% to 20.9 billion yuan [23][27]. 2. Revenue and Profit - Revenue performance varies across different segments, with the aviation sector contributing the most to both revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, accounting for 45% and 54% respectively [44][49]. - The maritime equipment sector showed significant growth, with a revenue increase of 132.0% year-on-year [50]. 3. Profitability Indicators - The overall profitability of the military industry has faced short-term pressure, with gross margin decreasing from 21.60% to 19.27% and net margin from 8.78% to 6.85% from the first half of 2021 to the first half of 2025 [28][31]. - The report indicates that profitability is expected to improve as product prices stabilize and economies of scale are realized [28]. 4. Operational Indicators - Operational indicators have shown stable growth, with inventory increasing by 13.43% year-on-year to 349.3 billion yuan, and contract liabilities rising by 21.48% to 224 billion yuan [32][36]. - The report highlights that the growth in operational metrics reflects a robust demand from downstream sectors, ensuring a positive outlook for future performance [32]. 5. Key Companies to Watch - The report identifies several key companies to focus on, including AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, and others in both high-end and new-type combat capabilities [4][5].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its structural upward trend supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations and the ongoing recovery of A-share sentiment, with technology and consumer sectors being the most promising directions [1] - The recent improvement in liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to the significantly lower-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data, which has led to a sharp decline in U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (931573), which selects up to 50 quality companies from the technology sector listed within the Stock Connect range, covering areas such as internet, biomedicine, and new energy vehicles [1] Group 2 - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF Initiated Link A (015739) and Link C (015740) [2]