Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5% during the July 2025 FOMC meeting, marking the fifth pause since the rate cut cycle began in September 2024. The decision to not lower rates was in line with market expectations, although two officials voted against it, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [1][8]. Summary by Sections FOMC Meeting Outcomes - The FOMC's decision to keep rates unchanged aligns with market expectations, with two officials dissenting for a rate cut [1][8]. - The Fed continues to reduce its balance sheet, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1][8]. Economic Outlook - The July FOMC statement showed a slight weakening in the description of economic growth but did not indicate a dovish shift. Employment remains solid, inflation is still high, and the unemployment rate is low [2][9]. - The statement changed the description of economic growth from "solid expansion" to "moderate slowdown" for the first half of the year, consistent with GDP data released on July 30 [2][10]. Powell's Remarks - Powell's stance on future rate cuts remains cautious, emphasizing a "wait and see" approach. He noted that upcoming employment and inflation reports will inform the September meeting's decisions [3][11]. - Despite a low unemployment rate, Powell acknowledged that inflation is above target, suggesting a moderately restrictive monetary policy is appropriate [3][13]. Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, market expectations for a September rate cut decreased significantly, with the probability dropping from 63.3% to 41.2% [6][18]. - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 5 basis points to 4.37%, and the dollar index increased to 99.82, indicating a potential rebound in the dollar [6][18]. GDP Data Insights - The U.S. Q2 GDP showed a significant rebound with a quarter-over-quarter annualized growth rate of +3%, surpassing expectations of +2.4%. However, this rebound included technical factors due to a sharp decline in imports [5][15]. - Final sales to private domestic purchasers grew by only +1.2%, the lowest since late 2022, indicating a slowdown in domestic demand [5][16]. Investment Implications - The overall economic data suggests that while there is resilience in the labor market, underlying demand is weakening, which may affect future monetary policy decisions [4][14].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates, aligning with expectations, while Powell emphasized that inflation is close to 2% but it is too early to determine if a rate cut will occur in September [1] - The current policy is slightly restrictive but has not suppressed the economy, leading to a strengthening of the US dollar and a decline in gold and silver prices, with gold hitting a low of 3268 and silver at 36.7 [1] - Market sentiment has been influenced by data, with gold and silver showing a weak trend, and key resistance levels for gold at 3300 and 3330, while silver faces resistance at 37.5 [1][2] Group 2 - The dollar has reached a critical level above 100, while gold has been affected by market data, showing an overall weak trend [2] - Gold has dropped from 3438 to 3268, a decline of 170 points, and the market is currently at a critical juncture for potential bullish reversal [2][3] - The upcoming unemployment claims and non-farm payroll data are crucial for market direction, with a focus on whether gold can maintain above 3300 and 3330 for potential upward movement [3] Group 3 - International silver has shown significant volatility, breaking below 37.5, and its future direction remains uncertain, dependent on upcoming data [4] - Domestic silver has also seen a decline, with the Shanghai silver contract falling below 9100, indicating potential for further downward movement unless it stabilizes above 9150 [4] - Crude oil has successfully risen to 770, with previous long positions yielding profits, and the overall bullish trend remains intact, with potential targets above 72 [4][5] Group 4 - Domestic fuel oil has seen a rise to around 3000, with previous long positions being adjusted or exited for profit, while the overall trend remains bullish [5] - The focus remains on monitoring support levels and potential upward targets for both domestic and international commodities [5]

美国6月整体及核心CPI略有反弹，供应管理会制造业PMI连续4个月低于荣枯线50，但6月失业率下行至 4.1%，显示美国就业形势稳定，而美国刚公布的二季度GDP初值环比折年率超预期达到3%。另外，美 国"对等关税"大限在即，特朗普总统多次施压引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧，均使美联储7月会议结 果备受关注。美东时间7月30日，美联储7月会议维持政策利率不变，但有两位委员表明应立即降息。美 股表现分化：万得数据显示，昨夜道琼斯指数下跌0.38%，标普500指数下跌0.12%，纳斯达克指数上 0.15%，美元指数几乎平盘，美国10年期国债收益率收在4.38%。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 美联储本次会议决议及会后鲍威尔发言重点包括了： 一：虽然净出口波动继续影响数据，但近期指标显示，上半年经济活动增长有所放缓，经济前景不确定 性仍然偏高，委员会决定将联邦基准利率区间维持4.25%至4.5%不变。 二：会后声明指出，劳动力市场依然稳定，失业率保持低位，但通胀仍然偏高；在评估适当的货币政策 立场时，委员会关注政策使命的双重风险。 三、米歇尔·勒鲍曼和克里斯托弗·沃勒持两位委员 ...

专题：美联储如预期所料按兵不动 利率声明暗示降息之日渐近 7月31日，美国6月整体及核心CPI略有反弹，供应管理会制造业PMI连续4个月低于荣枯线50，但6月失 业率下行至4.1%，显示美国就业形势稳定，而美国刚公布的二季度GDP初值环比折年率超预期达到 3%。另外，美国"对等关税"大限在即，特朗普总统多次施压引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧，均使美 联储7月会议结果备受关注。美东时间7月30日，美联储7月会议维持政策利率不变，但有两位委员表明 应立即降息。美股表現分化：万得数据显示，昨夜道琼斯指数下跌0.38%，标普500指数下跌0.12%，纳 斯达克指数上0.15%，美元指数几乎平盘，美国10年期国债收益率收在4.38%。 美联储本次会议决议及会后鲍威尔发言重点包括了： 一：虽然净出口波动继续影响数据，但近期指标显示，上半年经济活动增长有所放缓，经济前景不确定 性仍然偏高，委员会决定将联邦基准利率区间维持4.25%至4.5%不变。 二：会后声明指出，劳动力市场依然稳定，失业率保持低位，但通胀仍然偏高；在评估适当的货币政策 立场时，委员会关注政策使命的双重风险。 三、米歇尔-勒鲍曼和克里斯托弗-沃勒持两位委员持 ...

澳洲联储副主席：如果失业率急剧上升，我们将不得不作出反应，但这并非我们的核心预测。 ...

澳洲联储副主席：失业数据与我们的预测相符，失业率仍然非常低。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：必须关注的主要数字是失业率。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会的开场白中表示：虽然面临不确定性，经济仍然形势稳固。 诸多指标显示，经济增速温和。 长期通胀预期保持在2%（附近）。 这在很大程度上体现出消费者退缩。 6月核心PCE通胀同比上升2.7%。 愿意将货币政策定性为具有适度的限制性。 美联储仍然专注于（充分就业+价格稳定）双重职责。 特朗普政府调整政策的效果仍然是不确定的。 劳动力市场条件大致平衡。 当前政策立场让我们（在后续政策行动方面）准备就绪。 当前政策立场与通胀风险相一致。 关税推高某些商品价格。 合理的基本假设是，关税对通胀的影响将是短期的。 可能通胀效应会变得更加顽固。 失业率仍然偏低。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：失业率低且保持在狭窄范围内。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's FOMC has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% to support maximum employment and a 2% inflation rate, while closely monitoring economic indicators and risks [4][6]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has slowed in the first half of the year, although the unemployment rate remains low and the labor market is stable [4][6]. - Inflation is still at a relatively high level, and the uncertainty regarding the economic outlook remains elevated [4][6]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Decisions - The FOMC will continue to reduce its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities as part of its monetary policy strategy [4][6]. - The committee is prepared to adjust its monetary policy stance if risks emerge that could hinder the achievement of its goals [4][6]. Group 3: Committee Members - The voting members in favor of the monetary policy decision include FOMC Chair Powell, Vice Chair Williams, and several other regional Federal Reserve presidents and governors [5][7].