Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September increased by 0.1% month-on-month but decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][5] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, saw its first year-on-year increase in 19 months, rising to 1% and marking the fifth consecutive month of growth [2][4] CPI Analysis - The month-on-month increase in CPI was driven by seasonal price rises in fresh vegetables, eggs, fresh fruits, lamb, and beef, with increases ranging from 0.9% to 6.1%. Conversely, pork and aquatic product prices fell by 0.7% and 1.8%, respectively [4] - The year-on-year decline in CPI was primarily influenced by a base effect, with the tail effect contributing approximately -0.8 percentage points to the -0.3% change [5] - In the food category, pork, fresh vegetables, eggs, and fresh fruits saw price declines of 17.0%, 13.7%, 13.5%, and 4.2%, respectively, while beef and lamb prices increased by 4.6% and 0.8% [5] PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month and saw a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [8] - The stabilization in PPI is attributed to improved supply-demand dynamics and the impact of macroeconomic policies, which have led to positive price changes in certain industries [8] - The "anti-involution" policy and the significant drop in the year-on-year comparison base have contributed to the narrowing of the PPI decline [9][10] Future Outlook - Forecasts suggest that the CPI may rise to around 0.1% year-on-year in October, driven by the effects of consumption-boosting policies and a lower base from the previous year [6] - The overall expectation is for a mild recovery in CPI throughout the year, with an anticipated annual increase of 0.1% [7] - PPI is expected to continue facing downward pressure until there is a significant recovery in the real estate market and consumer confidence [9]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a slight improvement from the previous month's decline of 0.4%[1] - Food prices fell by 4.4% year-on-year, contributing approximately 1 percentage point to the CPI decline[1] - Core CPI rose by 1% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of acceleration[1] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in September, but the decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - The PPI showed no change month-on-month, indicating a halt in the downward trend for two consecutive months[2] - Prices in coal processing rose by 3.8% month-on-month, while black metal smelting and rolling industries saw a 0.2% increase[2] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Positive signals in price trends are attributed to central government measures since "9·24" aimed at stabilizing growth and boosting confidence[3] - Despite positive signals, there remains significant downward pressure on prices, particularly as investment and consumption data show signs of decline in the second half of the year[3] - The need for enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments and effective policy resource utilization is emphasized to maintain growth momentum[3]

Inflation Data - September CPI year-on-year decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points to -0.3%, remaining at a low level since the beginning of the year[3] - Core CPI improved by 0.1 percentage points to 1.0%, the highest since March 2024, driven by rising gold prices and effective fiscal subsidies for durable goods[3] - Food CPI fell by 4.4% year-on-year, with fresh vegetable and fruit prices rising by 6.1% and 1.7% respectively, while pork prices continued to decline due to ample supply[4] Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - September PPI year-on-year decline narrowed significantly by 0.6 percentage points to -2.3%, influenced by low base effects and anti-involution measures[3] - PPI recovery is expected to be gradual due to weak domestic investment demand, with upstream industrial prices stabilizing as anti-involution progresses[5] - International oil price fluctuations led to a 2.0% month-on-month decline in oil and gas extraction, while coal mining increased by 2.5% month-on-month[5] Economic Outlook - The inflation data indicates a synchronized improvement in core CPI and PPI, with fiscal subsidies continuing to boost durable goods consumption[6] - Uncertainties in the fourth quarter and into 2026 are anticipated due to potential export pressures from cooling external demand and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[6] - The central government may increase consumption subsidies and effective investment budgets if export declines are significant, with a potential for a small interest rate cut of 10 basis points[6]

Core Insights - The overall consumer market in September remained stable, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.1% month-on-month and decreasing by 0.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth [1][3][4]. CPI Analysis - The month-on-month CPI increase was driven by a 0.7% rise in food prices, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI increase. Seasonal price increases were noted in fresh vegetables, eggs, fresh fruits, lamb, and beef, with price changes ranging from 0.9% to 6.1% [3]. - Year-on-year, the CPI decline was primarily influenced by a 4.4% drop in food prices, which accounted for about 0.83 percentage points of the CPI decrease. Notably, pork, fresh vegetables, eggs, and fresh fruits saw significant price drops of 17.0%, 13.7%, 13.5%, and 4.2%, respectively [4]. - The core CPI's year-on-year growth rate has expanded for five consecutive months, reaching 1%, the highest in nearly 19 months. Prices for industrial consumer goods, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.8%, with notable increases in gold and platinum jewelry prices of 42.1% and 33.6%, respectively [4]. PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month for two consecutive months, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, which is a narrowing of the decline by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [5][6]. - The PPI's stability was attributed to improved supply-demand dynamics in certain industries, with coal processing prices rising by 3.8% and black metal smelting prices increasing by 0.2% [6]. - The decline in oil-related industry prices was influenced by falling international oil prices, with oil extraction prices decreasing by 2.7% and refined oil product prices down by 1.5% [6]. Market Dynamics - The construction of a unified national market has led to a narrowing of year-on-year price declines in several industries, including coal processing and black metal smelting, with reductions in PPI's downward pressure by approximately 0.34 percentage points [7]. - Upgrading industrial structures and releasing consumer potential have contributed to price increases in specific sectors, such as aircraft manufacturing and electronic materials, with notable price increases of 1.4% and 1.2%, respectively [7].

Group 1 - The overall consumer market in September remained stable, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.1% month-on-month, shifting from flat in the previous month [1] - Food prices increased by 0.7%, driven by seasonal price rises in fresh vegetables, eggs, and fresh fruits, while pork and aquatic product prices decreased due to sufficient supply [1] - Clothing prices rose by 0.8% as autumn collections were introduced [1] Group 2 - Year-on-year, the CPI decreased by 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [4] - Among the eight categories of goods and services that constitute the CPI, six categories saw price increases, while only food, tobacco, alcohol, and transportation and communication prices declined [4] Group 3 - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of expansion and the first time in 19 months that the growth rate returned to 1% [5] - The increase in core CPI is primarily attributed to rising prices of durable consumer goods and services, supported by effective policies to stimulate domestic demand and consumption [7] Group 4 - Prices of industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, increased by 1.8%, with the growth rate expanding for the fifth consecutive month [8] - Prices for household appliances and communication tools rose by 5.5% and 1.5%, respectively, indicating an upward trend [8] - Service prices increased by 0.6%, showing stable growth [8]

Core Insights - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while it increased by 0.1% month-on-month. The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.3% year-on-year and remained flat month-on-month [1][13]. CPI Analysis - The CPI's year-on-year decline was primarily driven by a 4.4% drop in food prices, which contributed approximately 0.83 percentage points to the CPI decrease. Notably, pork prices fell by 17.0%, fresh vegetables by 13.7%, and eggs by 13.5% [12][4]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, the highest increase in 19 months [12][1]. - In September, food prices increased by 0.7% month-on-month, contributing about 0.13 percentage points to the CPI rise [10][11]. PPI Analysis - The PPI's year-on-year decline of 2.3% was a reduction of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a narrowing of the decline [13][19]. - The prices of production materials decreased by 2.4%, significantly impacting the overall PPI level. The mining industry saw a 9.0% drop in prices, while the processing industry experienced a 1.7% decline [16][19]. - The PPI remained stable month-on-month, with the prices of production materials holding steady and life goods prices decreasing by 0.2% [17][19]. Price Changes by Category - In September, the prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with fresh vegetables and pork being the most significant contributors to this decline [4][12]. - The prices of clothing and household goods saw increases of 1.7% and 2.2% year-on-year, respectively, while transportation and communication prices fell by 2.0% [9][12]. - The service prices experienced a 0.3% decrease, influenced by seasonal factors such as the end of summer and the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival [11][12].

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in September, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.0%, marking the first return to a 1% increase in nearly 19 months [1][2][4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to August [5][6] CPI Analysis - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by a significant drop in food prices, which fell by 4.4% year-on-year, and energy prices, which decreased by 2.7%, contributing approximately 0.2 percentage points to the overall CPI decline [3] - Seasonal factors, such as the end of summer and the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival, led to a decrease in prices for air tickets, hotel accommodations, and tourism services by 13.8%, 7.4%, and 6.1% respectively [3] Core CPI Insights - The continuous rise in core CPI reflects the effectiveness of domestic demand expansion policies and an improving market supply-demand relationship [4][7] - The core CPI's increase for five consecutive months indicates a positive trend in consumer spending and economic circulation [4] PPI Insights - The PPI remained flat month-on-month for two consecutive months, with certain industries showing positive price changes due to effective macroeconomic policies and capacity management [6] - Specific industries, such as coal processing and battery manufacturing, experienced a narrowing of price declines, indicating a potential recovery in those sectors [6] Future Outlook - Experts suggest that further efforts are needed to expand domestic demand and regulate competition among enterprises to promote reasonable price recovery [1][7] - The government is expected to continue implementing measures to boost consumption and effective investment, which may positively impact both CPI and PPI in the coming months [7]

Core Insights - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month, while year-on-year it decreased by 0.3%, marking a significant change in the consumption market [1] - The core CPI's year-on-year growth rate rose for five consecutive months, reaching 1%, the first time in 19 months that it returned to this level [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month and saw a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, with the rate of decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] CPI Analysis - The month-on-month increase in CPI was driven by a 0.7% rise in food prices, influenced by seasonal increases in fresh vegetables and eggs, while prices for pork and aquatic products fell [1] - Year-on-year, food prices decreased by 4.4%, and energy prices fell by 2.7%, contributing to the overall decline in CPI [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, saw a year-on-year increase of 1.0% [1] PPI Analysis - The PPI's month-on-month stability is attributed to improved supply-demand dynamics, stabilizing prices in certain industries such as coal processing and photovoltaic equipment [1] - Input factors led to a decline in prices in domestic oil-related industries, including oil extraction and refined petroleum products [1] - The narrowing year-on-year decline in PPI reflects the effects of macroeconomic policies and the construction of a unified national market, which has helped stabilize prices in some sectors [1] Price Trends - In September, the average year-on-year decline in national consumer prices was 0.3%, with an average decline of 0.1% from January to September [1] - The prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, while other categories showed mixed results with six rising and one falling [1] - The industrial producer prices year-on-year fell by 2.3%, with an average decline of 2.8% from January to September [1]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in September 2025, with urban areas seeing a decline of 0.2% and rural areas a decline of 0.5% [2] - The average CPI from January to September 2025 fell by 0.1% compared to the same period last year [2] Price Changes - Food prices dropped by 4.4%, contributing approximately 0.83 percentage points to the CPI decline, making it the primary factor for the decrease [3] - Specific food items such as pork, fresh vegetables, eggs, and fresh fruits saw significant price drops of 17.0%, 13.7%, 13.5%, and 4.2% respectively, collectively impacting the CPI by about 0.78 percentage points [3] - Energy prices decreased by 2.7%, contributing around 0.20 percentage points to the CPI decline [3] Core CPI and Industrial Prices - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.0%, marking the first return to this growth rate in 19 months [3] - Industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, rose by 1.8%, with notable increases in gold and platinum jewelry prices of 42.1% and 33.6% respectively [3] Service Prices - Service prices increased by 0.6%, with stable growth observed in medical services and household services, which rose by 1.9% and 1.6% respectively [3] - Prices for hotel accommodations and airline tickets decreased by 1.5% and 1.7% respectively [3]

Core Insights - The overall consumer market in September remained stable, with CPI rising 0.1% month-on-month and falling 0.3% year-on-year, while core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 1.0%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth [1][2][3] CPI Analysis - The year-on-year decline in CPI of 0.3% was primarily due to the tail effect, with a contribution of approximately -0.8 percentage points from this effect, while new price changes contributed about 0.5 percentage points [1][3] - Food prices decreased by 4.4% year-on-year, significantly impacting CPI, with pork prices down 17.0% and fresh vegetables down 13.7% [3][8] - Core CPI's year-on-year increase of 1.0% is the first time it has returned to 1% in nearly 19 months, indicating a potential stabilization in consumer prices [1][3] PPI Analysis - The PPI remained flat month-on-month for two consecutive months, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, which is a narrowing of the decline by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][6][10] - The improvement in supply-demand structure has led to price stabilization in certain industries, such as coal processing and black metal smelting, which saw price increases of 3.8% and 0.2% respectively [4][6] - Input factors, particularly the decline in international oil prices, have negatively impacted domestic oil-related industry prices [4][5] Price Changes by Category - In September, food and beverage prices fell by 2.6% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.74 percentage points to the CPI decline [8] - The prices of various goods and services showed mixed results, with some categories like other goods and services, and clothing prices increasing by 9.9% and 1.7% respectively [8][9] - The prices of industrial producer goods showed a decline in production materials by 2.4%, with significant drops in mining and raw materials sectors [11][12]