晨会纪要（2025/12/05） 编辑人 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 4 晨会纪要（2025/12/05） 宏观及策略研究 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.05） 宏观及策略研究 国内外重要会议临近，市场进入等待阶段——A 股市场投资策略周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 国内外重要会议临近，市场进入等待阶段——A 股市场投资策略周报 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（11 月 28 日-12 月 4 日），重要指数多数收涨；其中，上证综指微幅收涨 0.01%，创业板指收 涨 1.19%；风格层面，沪深 300 收涨 0.69%，中证 500 收涨 0.89%。成交量方面有所缩量，两市统计区间内 成交 8.27 万亿元，日均成交额降至 1. ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ ■ 李 文 上交所官网最新数据显示，2025年11月份，A股新增投资者开户数达到238.14万户，环比增长3.1%。在 11月份市场整体震荡盘整的背景下，A股开户数保持了相对稳定且略有增长的态势，这背后是普通投资 者、专业机构乃至敏锐的国际资本，对中国经济长期基本面与资本市场改革方向投下的信任票。笔者认 为，这份信心共识，扎根在政策预期明确、市场资金生态优化、企业盈利改善这三大日益稳固的基础之 上。 第一，政策定力为市场注入长期确定性。 市场信心的首要支撑，源于清晰、连贯且坚定的政策预期。"加快建设金融强国"已上升为国家战略，资 本市场作为金融体系的重要组成部分，在金融强国建设中承担着重要的使命。政策层面也展现出维护市 场平稳运行、切实保障投资者合法权益等鲜明导向。一系列制度改革精准发力，均指向构筑一个更加规 范、透明、开放、有活力的良性市场生态。 2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，各项政策的逐步落地与推进和政策红利全方位、多层次的释放，令市场 满怀憧憬与期待。市场普遍预期，围绕现代化产业体系建设、科技自立自强等战略方向，将有一系列具 ...

Market Review - In the past five trading days (November 28 to December 4), major indices mostly rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.01% and the ChiNext Index up by 1.19%. The CSI 300 rose by 0.69% and the CSI 500 increased by 0.89% [3][9][23]. Policy Insights - On December 3, the Deputy Director of the Central Financial Office emphasized the necessity of accelerating the construction of a financial powerhouse to promote high-quality development. Key areas include improving the central bank system, enhancing capital market stability, and optimizing financial institutions and infrastructure [28]. Investment Strategy - The A-share market is entering a phase of oscillation and waiting. The performance of the market will depend on the catalysts from various sectors during this earnings vacuum period. With important meetings approaching, the market is anticipating incremental policy changes, which could lead to a rebound if they exceed expectations. Investors are advised to remain patient and focus on policy and technology themes for future positioning [29]. Sector Opportunities - Investment opportunities are identified in several sectors: 1. TMT sector and robotics, driven by the expansion of AI capital from domestic and international cloud vendors and the acceleration of domestic computing power replacement [29]. 2. Power equipment and non-ferrous metals, benefiting from high global demand for energy storage and the ongoing industrialization of solid-state batteries [29]. 3. Social services and resource products, which may present policy-driven opportunities amid structural adjustments and "anti-involution" initiatives [29]. 4. The banking sector is also highlighted as a potential area for allocation due to the low interest rate environment and the return of public fund holdings to performance benchmarks [29].

近日，一张漂洋过海且含金量十足的榜单"造访"了中国银行业。在这个被视为"银行业奥斯卡"的 2025年度评选中，中信银行站上C位，荣膺"2025年中国年度银行"。该份榜单是国际专业财经媒体英国 《银行家》（The Banker）对于中信银行近年来在服务实体经济领域一系列创新实践的认同与褒奖，在 历届榜单中，工商银行、农业银行等国有大行和几家头部股份制银行也曾斩获该年度银行奖项。 那么，包括中信银行在内的中国银行业金融机构的"小金人"究竟是如何炼成的？其实，问道银行品 牌的"铸金之径"，其意义并不局限于银行业自身的品牌建设与发展，而是期待在新一轮科技革命浪潮奔 涌、"十五五"宏伟蓝图徐徐展开、建设金融强国旌旗猎猎的大时代，找到银行业赋能实体经济高质量发 展的"最优解"。 信立根 银行自诞生之初，便与"信用"血脉相连。 现代银行所从事的金融业务的本质是信用，而品牌的根基同样在于信任。在经济社会深刻变革的当 下，"信"如同数学中无数个"0"前面最关键的"1"，不仅是银行自身的发展根基，也是金融强国战略下品 牌建设的发展起点。 中信银行显然深谙此道，将"信"融入品牌基因。从"让财富有温度"的品牌主张，到"信·新"品牌论 ...

券商板块拉升 券商板块盘中发力上扬，截至午间收盘，长城证券涨超4%，湘财股份、中泰证券、华泰证券、东方财富等跟涨。 机器人概念股掀涨停潮。 4日早盘，A股主要股指盘中探底回升，创业板指一度涨超1%；港股亦上扬，恒生科技指数一度涨超1%。 具体来看，A股三大股指早盘短线冲高后震荡回落，盘中拉升集体翻红。截至午间收盘，沪指微涨0.04%报3879.52点，深证成指涨0.35%，创业板指涨0.76%，科创 50指数涨0.92%，沪深北三市合计成交10403亿元。 盘面上，小盘股整体疲弱，旅游餐饮、煤炭、酿酒、食品饮料等板块走低；券商板块异动，长城证券领涨；机器人概念爆发，海昌新材、华伍股份等多股涨停，江 苏雷利涨超10%；商业航天概念再度活跃，航天环宇、招标股份等涨超10%。值得注意的是，人气牛股海王生物斩获7连板。 中航证券表示，当前资本市场正处于深刻的供给侧改革与功能性转变之中。展望2026年，在"金融强国"战略与"活跃资本市场"政策基调的持续驱动下，券商行业将 彻底告别同质化竞争，行业"头部券商+中小特色券商"格局逐渐明朗。资本市场改革预期不断强化，监管层明确支持优质券商通过并购重组实现做优做强，行业集中 度 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's economy is at a critical juncture filled with challenges and opportunities, facing pressure from real estate adjustments, weak external demand, and slow internal recovery, necessitating a sustainable and resilient development path [1][6]. Group 1: Economic Challenges and Opportunities - The overall economic operation is stable but structural contradictions remain prominent, with investment, consumption, and exports not synchronizing [1][6]. - The theme of the upcoming "Finance China 2025 Conference" is "Finding the Path for China's Economic Breakthrough," focusing on revitalizing the private economy, reshaping industrial advantages, and promoting technological innovation [1][6]. Group 2: Conference Focus and Goals - The conference will address macro policy coordination, structural reforms, technological innovation, private sector development, financial openness, and risk prevention [2][7]. - The event aims to gather insights from leaders across various sectors to explore feasible paths for balancing stable growth with structural optimization [1][6][7]. Group 3: Recognition and Impact - The "Finance China Annual Conference" has become one of the most influential annual events in China's financial sector, recognized as a barometer for the upcoming year's economic dynamics [3][8]. - The 23rd Finance Wind and Cloud List will continue to uphold principles of fairness and transparency, evaluating companies based on multiple dimensions such as corporate value and social responsibility [2][7].

展望2026年，中航证券指出，在"金融强国"战略与"活跃资本市场"政策基调的持续驱动下，券商行业将 彻底告别同质化竞争，行业"头部券商+中小特色券商"格局逐渐明朗。在政策驱动与行业内生增长的双 重作用下，未来券商盈利能力与估值水平均具备可观的上升空间。综合来看，目前监管明确鼓励行业内 整合，在政策推动证券行业高质量发展的趋势下，并购重组是券商实现外延式发展的有效手段，券商并 购重组对提升行业整体竞争力、优化资源配置以及促进市场健康发展具有积极作用，同时行业整合有助 于提高行业集中度，形成规模效应。 证券ETF建信(515560)紧密跟踪中证全指证券公司指数。中证全指证券公司指数为反映中证全指指数样 本中不同行业公司证券的整体表现，为投资者提供分析工具，将中证全指指数样本按中证行业分类分为 11个一级行业、35个二级行业、90余个三级行业及200余个四级行业，再以进入各一、二、三、四级行 业的全部证券作为样本编制指数，形成中证全指行业指数。 截至2025年12月4日午间收盘，中证全指证券公司指数(399975)上涨0.52%，样本股长城证券(002939)上 涨4.04%，湘财股份(600095)上涨1.64% ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of the securities industry in 2025, with a significant increase in profits driven by self-operated businesses, and anticipates continued growth in 2026 due to favorable policies and market conditions [6][15][26]. Section Summaries 1. 2025 Review: Recovery Begins - The securities industry saw a substantial improvement in profitability, with 43 listed brokers achieving a net profit of CNY 1,692.54 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 63.44% [15]. - The overall revenue for the same period reached CNY 4,216.23 billion, reflecting a 12.85% increase year-on-year [15]. - The recovery is supported by strong performance in brokerage and proprietary trading, with brokerage net income rising by 68% [18]. 2. Incremental Catalysts Expected, Performance Continues to Improve - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines a strategic direction for high-quality development in the financial sector, emphasizing the importance of a robust capital market [33]. - There is significant potential for increased market participation from institutional investors and retail investors, as the wealth effect from the capital market is expected to drive demand expansion [44][48]. 3. Comprehensive Performance Recovery, Growth Potential in Light Asset Businesses - The wealth management sector is recovering, with public funds showing high-quality development and increased market activity [18]. - Investment banking activities are also rebounding, particularly in the dual innovation sector, with IPOs and underwriting volumes expected to rise [18]. 4. Industry Structure Optimization: Building a First-Class Investment Bank - The report highlights the acceleration of mergers among leading brokers and the internationalization of Chinese brokers as key strategies for building a first-class investment bank [6][39]. - The integration of mergers and international expansion is seen as crucial for enhancing the competitive landscape of the industry [6][39]. 5. Profit Forecast: Continued ROE Improvement in 2026 - The report predicts that the return on equity (ROE) for the industry will continue to improve, with a projected net profit growth of 13% year-on-year under neutral assumptions for 2026 [6][39]. 6. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Structural Optimization and Alpha Catalysts - Investors are advised to pay attention to brokers benefiting from structural optimization and the recovery of wealth management, such as China International Capital Corporation, Huatai Securities, and CITIC Securities [6][39].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of constructing a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system as strategic measures for promoting high-quality financial development and building a financial powerhouse during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4][5][6]. - It highlights that the dual objectives of maintaining currency stability and financial stability are foundational tools for the central bank's macro-management, which are essential for achieving the goals of modernizing the economy [5][6][7]. Group 2 - The construction of a scientific and robust monetary policy system is deemed necessary for accelerating the establishment of a high-level socialist market economy, addressing unbalanced and insufficient development, and supporting high-quality development [5][6][8]. - The article outlines the need for a well-structured monetary policy framework that includes optimizing the mechanism for basic currency issuance and maintaining reasonable growth in financial aggregates [10][11]. Group 3 - The macro-prudential management system aims to observe, assess, and respond to financial risks from a macro and counter-cyclical perspective, preventing systemic financial risks that could disrupt macroeconomic stability [12][13]. - It stresses the importance of monitoring systemic financial risks and implementing preventive measures to ensure the stability of key financial institutions and markets [15][16].

以下为原文： 构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系（学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神） 潘功胜 党的二十届四中全会通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出，构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖 全面的宏观审慎管理体系。这是"十五五"时期推动金融高质量发展、加快建设金融强国的战略举措，为完善中央银行制度指明了方向。 一、构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系的重要意义 习近平总书记指出，金融是"国之大者"，关系中国式现代化建设全局。中央银行以维护币值稳定和金融稳定为双目标，货币政策体系和宏观 审慎管理体系是中央银行实施宏观管理的两项基础性工具，是实现双目标的双支柱。构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管 理体系，有利于把维护币值稳定和金融稳定更好结合起来，对于支撑金融强国建设具有重要的意义。 一是加快构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制的必然要求。习近平总书记指出，金融改革发展是国家改革发展的重要内容；金融制度是经济社 会发展中重要的基础性制度。"十五五"时期，需要适应社会主要矛盾变化，更好解决发展不平衡不充分问题；需要建设现代化产业体系，加 快构建 ...