针对关税影响， 声明显示，包括贸易政策影响的不确定性仍然极高，出口和产出可能将继续表现疲软， 各国贸易和其他政策的长期高度不确定性可能导致企 业更多地关注削减成本。 声明进一步指出，如果全球物流出现中断，或进行供应链重组并产生大量成本，进口价格可能会上涨。这可能会反过来抑制国内需求。 日央行连续第二次维持利率水平不变，强调贸易政策存在"极高不确定性"。 5月1日周四，日本央行以9-0的投票结果通过最新利率决议，维持利率在0.5%不变，此次为该行连续第二次"按兵不动"，符合市场预期。 周四下午，日本央行行长植田和男召开货币政策新闻发布会。 植田和男重申加息立场，称关税冲击使经济和通胀前景更具挑战。 植田和男称，贸易政策带来的不确定性显著增加， 当前实际利率明显偏低，如果经济前景实现，将继续加息 ， 下次加息的时机将很大程度上取决于关税对经 济的影响。 日本央行一致同意"按兵不动"，继续维持利率不变 在上午公布的利率决议中，日央行下调了对GDP和通胀的预测，并强调贸易政策存在"极高不确定性"。 在决议声明中，日央行表示，日本金融体系整体保持稳定。消费有望维持温和上升趋势，经济增长将加快；但家庭对支出的防御性态度可 ...

瑞穗表示，日本央行货币紧缩周期的"临时暂停"将加大日元卖盘压力，市场关注焦点重新转向日本低利 率环境。"对加息预期降温使日元贬值风险加剧，"瑞穗证券驻东京首席策略师Shoki Omori在报告中写 道，并补充称美元走势仍将是关键。"尽管日本央行行长植田和男曾提及工资与物价之间的正向互动仍 在持续，但简略的阐述凸显了其表态的谨慎基调，"Omori表示；"这种立场进一步加剧了美元/日元空头 头寸的复杂性"。 ...

值得注意的是，日本央行判断这种下行压力具有阶段性特征。植田和男强调："随着海外经济逐步恢复 温和复苏，关税负面影响有望消退。" 通胀走势生变：目标达成或推迟数年 在价格层面，日本央行观察到关税风险正引发连锁反应。植田和男指出："受贸易环境影响，潜在通胀 率将在未来一段时期停滞，此后才会重回升势。"这种"停滞-复苏"的波浪形走势，导致通胀达标时间表 被迫后延。 同时，由于关税上调影响，日本下调了 2025 财年和 2026 财年的增长，预测预计日本将进入一个通胀和 工资增长可能均有所放缓的时期。但由于严重的劳动力短缺，预计工资和通胀上涨的良性循环将持续下 去。 智通财经APP获悉，日本央行在5月1日结束的货币政策会议上宣布维持基准利率不变，同时下调2025财 年及2026财年经济增长预期。行长植田和男在记者会上坦言，美国贸易政策不确定性正给这个全球第四 大经济体蒙上阴影，但该央行仍坚持2%通胀目标，暗示关税风险或延缓而非终结加息进程。 关税冲击波：全球经济放缓拖累日本 针对4月初美国启动的"互惠关税"政策，植田和男指出："当前全球贸易环境不确定性达历史高位，各国 谈判进展将直接影响经济走势。"据该央行最新预测， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan maintains interest rates while lowering economic growth forecasts due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs, but inflation is expected to remain on track to meet the 2% target, indicating that tariff risks may only delay rather than disrupt the rate hike plans [1] Economic Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs has heightened trade policy unpredictability, with expectations that trade negotiations will progress and global supply chains will not face major disruptions [2] - Japan's economy is expected to face downward pressure from tariffs through three channels: slowing global growth, damaging corporate profits, and increased uncertainty leading to delayed spending by households and businesses [2] - Despite these pressures, a gradual recovery in overseas economies is anticipated to alleviate some of the downward pressure over time [2] Inflation and Wage Growth - The Bank of Japan has revised down its growth forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026, indicating a phase of synchronized slowdown in inflation and wage growth, although labor shortages will maintain a positive wage-inflation cycle [2] - The timeline for achieving the inflation target has been pushed back, and the current environment suggests a period of inflation stagnation, making it difficult to assess the likelihood of achieving baseline scenarios [2] - The probability of achieving baseline scenarios has significantly decreased, and developments in tariff situations may alter these scenarios, directly impacting monetary policy decisions [2] Interest Rate Considerations - The timing for the next interest rate hike may not automatically align with the delayed timeline for inflation approaching 2% [3] - The Bank of Japan continues to provide monetary support, albeit with adjustments, as inflation is expected to gradually approach the target within the three-year forecast period [3] - The potential impact of U.S. tariffs on terminal rates is uncertain and may depend on changes in Japan's natural interest rate [3][4] Consumer Resilience - Rising food prices are affecting processed food sectors and suppressing some consumer spending, yet overall consumption trends remain upward [3] - The impact of wage increases on nominal income has not significantly boosted real income due to unexpected food price hikes [4]

日本央行行长植田和男：如果美国总统特朗普将关税降至零或维持在较低水平，那么加息速度可能会更 快。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：汇率应以经济基本面为基础进行变动。当基础通胀停滞不前时，没有必要仓促 加息。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：如果美国总统特朗普将关税降至零或维持在较低水平，则可能更快地加息。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：如果我们对下一财年晚些时候实现2%的通胀目标有足够的信心，那么加息是 有可能的。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, indicates that achieving the price target is within reach while maintaining a stance on interest rate hikes [1] Economic Data - Japan's economic data remains robust, suggesting a stable economic environment [1] Policy Adjustments - The possibility of policy adjustments will depend on how the economic outlook evolves [1]

日本央行行长植田和男：推迟实现通胀目标的时间不等于推迟加息。 ...