Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each commodity, considering factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and geopolitical risks. Summary by Commodity Category Base Metals - **Copper**: Market showed weak oscillations. Supply tightness persisted, with high scrap premium. Recommended waiting for clearer direction before trading [1]. - **Aluminum**: Prices declined slightly. Supply increased, while demand rose marginally. Short - term trend was expected to be oscillatory [1]. - **Alumina**: Prices dropped slightly. Some producers cut production, while demand remained high. Short - term prices were expected to be weak [1]. - **Lead**: Prices decreased. Supply was constrained by raw materials, and demand was affected by high prices. Recommended waiting and watching [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices rose. Supply decreased, and demand was supported. Organic silicon planned to cut production. Recommended waiting and watching [1][2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices increased. Demand was strong in the short - term, but weak in the long - term. Recommended low - level long positions with caution [2]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices declined. Supply decreased, and demand was weak. Recommended waiting and watching [2]. - **Tin**: Market showed weak oscillations. Supply was tight, and demand was stable. Recommended waiting and watching [2]. Black Industries - **Rebar**: Prices increased. Inventory decreased, and supply and demand were weak. Recommended holding short positions in hot - rolled coil 2605 [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices increased. Supply increased, and demand was weak. Recommended short - selling iron ore 2605 [4]. - **Coking Coal**: Prices decreased. Supply and demand were weak. Recommended short - selling coking coal 2605 [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean prices were strong. Global supply was tightening, and demand was good. Domestic market was relatively strong [5]. - **Corn**: Futures prices oscillated. Supply was delayed, and short - term demand was strong. Long - term prices were expected to decline [5]. - **Oils and Fats**: Malaysian palm oil prices increased. Supply was high in the short - term and expected to decrease later. Recommended anti - spread trading [6]. - **Sugar**: Prices decreased. International supply was tight, and domestic supply was expected to increase. Recommended short - selling futures and options [6]. - **Cotton**: Prices oscillated. US production increased, and domestic demand was weak. Recommended waiting and watching [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices oscillated. Supply decreased, and demand was weak. Recommended waiting and watching [6]. - **Hogs**: Futures prices were weak. Supply was abundant, and demand was expected to increase seasonally. Prices were expected to be strong in the short - term [6]. - **Apples**: Prices were stable. Supply was affected by bad weather, and inventory was low. Recommended waiting and watching [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Prices oscillated slightly. Supply pressure eased, and demand weakened. Short - term oscillations were expected, and long - term short positions were recommended [7]. - **PVC**: Prices were flat. Supply increased, and demand was weak. Recommended anti - spread trading [7]. - **PTA**: PX prices were high, and PTA supply pressure was large. Recommended taking profits on PX long positions and short - selling PTA processing fees [7]. - **Rubber**: Prices increased slightly. Supply was expected to increase, and inventory was accumulating. Recommended an oscillatory trading strategy [7]. - **Glass**: Prices decreased. Supply was stable, and demand was weak. Recommended anti - spread trading [8]. - **PP**: Prices oscillated slightly. Supply increased, and demand was weak. Short - term oscillations were expected, and long - term short positions were recommended [8]. - **MEG**: Prices oscillated. Supply pressure was large, and demand was in the off - season. Recommended short - selling above a certain level [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices oscillated. Supply and demand were bearish, but geopolitical risks were high. Short - term oscillations were expected, and short positions were recommended if supply reduction was less than expected [8]. - **Styrene**: Prices oscillated. Supply and demand were improving in the short - term but weak in the long - term. Recommended short - term oscillations with limited upside [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices increased slightly. Supply was stable, and demand was balanced. Recommended waiting and watching [9]. - **Urea**: Prices increased. Supply was sufficient, and demand was in the off - season. Short - term oscillations were expected [9].

Core Insights - Japan's economy showed significant contraction in the third quarter, breaking a six-quarter growth trend, raising concerns for future policy decisions [2][3] - External demand weakened due to rising trade pressures and tariffs imposed by the US on certain Asian goods, negatively impacting Japan's export sector [2] - Domestic investment also weakened, particularly in residential investment, due to regulatory adjustments causing uncertainty in the construction industry [2] - Consumer sentiment remained cautious amid high prices and an unclear economic outlook, limiting the potential for economic rebound [2] Economic Performance - The third quarter saw a notable slowdown in actual economic activity, primarily driven by external factors [2] - Weak overseas demand and increased trade pressures were significant contributors to the overall growth decline [2] - The contraction in residential investment was particularly pronounced, reflecting structural adjustments within the industry [2] Central Bank Implications - The latest economic data complicates the Bank of Japan's decision-making regarding interest rate adjustments, which were previously anticipated by the market [3] - The unexpected economic contraction may lead policymakers to reassess the pace of tightening and potentially delay further rate hikes [3] - The interplay of external uncertainties and internal adjustments presents challenges for future policy directions [3]

Economic Performance - Japan's economy experienced an annualized contraction of 1.8%, marking a quarterly decline of 0.4%, the first negative growth in six quarters [1] - The contribution of external demand to GDP was 0.2 percentage points, reflecting the impact of increased tariffs from the U.S. [4] - Housing investment declined by 9.4% from the previous quarter, translating to an annualized drop of 32.5%, primarily due to changes in building regulations [5] Bond Market Reaction - The Japanese bond market saw widespread declines, with yields generally rising; the 10-year bond yield increased by 3.4 basis points to 1.734% [1][3] - The 20-year bond yield rose by 3.2 basis points to 2.748%, and the 30-year bond yield increased by 5 basis points to 3.263% [3][4] Central Bank Policy Outlook - Economists suggest that the economic contraction complicates the timeline for the Bank of Japan's next interest rate hike [1] - The next policy meeting of the Bank of Japan is scheduled for December 18-19, with expectations that the central bank may delay any policy changes until next year [5][6] - Private consumption growth was only 0.1%, down from 0.4% in the previous quarter, indicating weakened consumer demand due to inflation outpacing wage growth [6] Future Economic Projections - Some economists believe that the Bank of Japan will assess the effectiveness of government measures in its January economic report before deciding on further actions [7] - The potential for a rebound in economic activity in the fourth quarter could influence the central bank's decisions regarding monetary policy tightening in early 2024 [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The depreciation of the Japanese yen, which has fallen below 155 against the US dollar for the first time since February, is primarily driven by the lack of commitment to interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan amid a new economic stimulus plan proposed by Prime Minister Kishi Sanae [1][3][5]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Currency Impact - The meeting between Prime Minister Kishi Sanae and Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo did not yield any signals for interest rate hikes, leading to a significant drop in the yen's value [3][5]. - Kishi's economic stimulus plan of 14 trillion yen aims to increase spending and printing money, which conflicts with the need for interest rate increases to stabilize the currency [6][11]. - The yen's depreciation is exacerbated by global investors favoring the US dollar, especially after the US government resolved a budget crisis, prompting a sell-off of the yen [7][11]. Group 2: Impact on Businesses and Consumers - Export-oriented companies like Toyota and Sony benefit from the weaker yen, as it increases their profits when converting foreign sales back to yen [9][10]. - Conversely, ordinary Japanese consumers face rising prices for imported goods, with significant increases in the cost of essentials like beef and gasoline due to the yen's depreciation [9][10]. - Small and medium-sized enterprises are struggling with increased costs for imported materials, leading to potential layoffs and price hikes that ultimately affect consumers [10][11]. Group 3: Central Bank's Dilemma - The Bank of Japan is caught in a difficult position, needing to balance between not raising interest rates to support economic growth and the pressure of rising inflation and a depreciating currency [11][13]. - Internal disagreements within the Bank of Japan highlight the urgency for action, with some members advocating for immediate interest rate hikes to combat inflation [11][13]. - The upcoming December meeting of the Bank of Japan is critical, as it will determine the future direction of monetary policy and its impact on the economy and the yen [11][13].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Nomura expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in December, citing resilient employment indicators despite government shutdown impacts [1] - The firm believes that recent strong rhetoric from Fed Chair Powell supports the view that the Fed may pause rate cuts after two consecutive reductions [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - UBS analysts indicate that gold prices are in an upward trend, with expectations for a stable period before further increases [2] - Citi forecasts copper prices to rise to an average of $12,000 per ton by Q2 2026, driven by a bullish outlook despite current weak physical demand [3] Group 3: Stock Market Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that U.S. stocks will underperform compared to emerging markets over the next decade, with a projected annual return of 6.5% for the S&P 500 [4] - Emerging markets are expected to yield a stronger annual return of 10.9%, driven by robust earnings growth in China and India [4] Group 4: Currency and Reserve Management - Standard Chartered notes a gradual reduction in global reserve managers' reliance on the U.S. dollar, with a shift towards a broader range of currencies [5] - The bank suggests that this diversification indicates a weakening structural demand for U.S. assets, although short-term pressure on the dollar remains limited [5] Group 5: Bond Market Insights - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that increased bond issuance in the U.S. and Europe will lead to higher risk premiums and steeper yield curves [6] - The bank forecasts that by the end of 2026, the yield on 10-year German bonds will reach 3%, while U.S. 10-year bonds will hit 4.5% [6] Group 6: Currency Outlook - ING analysts expect the dollar to decline next year due to lower hedging costs from anticipated Fed rate cuts, which may increase the hedging ratio for U.S. assets [7] - The euro is projected to rise to 1.22 by Q4 2026, supported by expectations of accelerated economic growth in the Eurozone [7] Group 7: Domestic Industry Insights - CITIC Securities highlights the competitive advantage of the domestic energy storage industry, predicting significant growth in global energy storage installations by 2025 [8] - The firm recommends focusing on leading companies in the energy storage supply chain, particularly in battery cells and system integration [8] Group 8: Pharmaceutical Sector - CITIC Securities continues to favor the pharmaceutical sector, suggesting investment in companies driven by innovation and international expansion [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in core components and the impact of new policies on the sector [9] Group 9: New Materials Sector - CITIC Securities identifies potential trading opportunities in the new materials sector, particularly in AI materials and hydrogen energy, driven by policy and performance catalysts [10] - The firm encourages active investment in high-growth industries and quality segments within the new materials space [10] Group 10: Banking Sector Performance - Galaxy Securities notes that banks are maintaining strong mid-term dividend payouts, with stable earnings supported by net interest income improvements [11] - The report highlights the positive impact of policy measures on credit structure optimization and the long-term transformation of the banking industry [11]

Core Viewpoint - The economic team at Canada's Scotiabank predicts that inflationary risks from U.S. tariffs will compel the Bank of Canada to initiate interest rate hikes in the second half of 2026 [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - Scotiabank expects the Bank of Canada to raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage points starting in the third quarter of next year [1] - The Bank of Canada recently lowered the benchmark interest rate and indicated that the easing cycle may be over, as it seeks to balance economic growth and inflation control [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The recent rate cut by Scotiabank was described as a precautionary measure against potentially weaker economic outcomes amid uncertainty [1] - The likelihood of initiating a rate hike cycle will depend on the impact of new government spending proposals on the economy [1]

回顾整个2024年，日元一直处于动荡不安之中。特别是在去年年中，在美元的强势打压下，日元对美元 汇率屡创新低，一度跌破160大关。在美联储不断推迟降息时间点以及日本央行加息行动不及预期的共 同影响下，显著的美日利差不断给日元汇率带来下行压力。 在此情况下，日本政府也曾多次采取措施对外汇市场进行干预，但总体来看效果不佳。相比于日本政 府，日本央行的行动被认为更能影响日元汇率表现。不过，在整个2024年日本央行在加息问题上始终保 持谨慎的态度，动作幅度不大，很难给日元汇率带来有效支撑。 2025年1月，日本央行终于开始行动。在1月的货币政策会议上，日本央行以8比1的多数票决定把货币政 策利率从0.25%提升至0.5%，符合市场预期。虽然日本央行在2024年3月和7月也曾加息两次，但加息幅 度均未达到25个基点。 在刚刚过去的10月，日元对美元持续贬值，不免让人想起2024年日本政府出手干预日元汇率的情景。不 过，从目前的情况看，市场普遍认为，当前日元汇率还没跌到触发干预的红线，因此日本政府暂时还不 会主动入市。 与此同时，日本央行最新公布的10月货币政策会议纪要显示，有一名委员明确表示，"进一步推进政策 利率正常 ...

Macro Economic Overview - China's CPI year-on-year growth has turned positive, driven by rising food prices and core inflation, with the core CPI growth reaching a six-month high of 1.2% [5] - PPI recorded its first month-on-month increase in a year, with a year-on-year decline narrowing, indicating a potential improvement in profitability for leading enterprises [5] - China's exports have significantly declined in October, particularly to developed countries, highlighting increasing economic growth pressures [6] Industry Insights - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has risen by 59.5% year-to-date, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 24% [6] - The healthcare sector has seen a recent pullback of 10% since October, presenting opportunities in undervalued stocks [6] - The demand for innovative drug research and development is recovering, supported by capital market financing and increased overseas clinical trials [6] Company Analysis - BeiGene (百济神州) has shown continuous improvement in profitability, with a strong sales growth trend driven by its drug Zanu, which is gaining market share in the CLL market [10] - The company achieved a revenue of $3.81 billion in the first nine months of 2025, a 43% year-on-year increase, and expects to exceed its revenue guidance for the fiscal year [10] - BeiGene's operational efficiency has improved, with a reduction in sales and management expenses as a percentage of product sales, leading to a net profit of $125 million in Q3 2025 [10] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a cautious approach in the healthcare sector, focusing on undervalued stocks such as 三生制药 (3SBio), 固生堂 (Gusongtang), and others [9] - BeiGene is rated as a "Buy" with a target price raised to $392.43, reflecting its strong market position and growth potential in the CLL market [12] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (华虹半导体) reported a record revenue of $635 million in Q3 2025, with a maintained "Hold" rating and a target price of HKD 68, indicating that its valuation is already reflected in the current market price [12]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's latest policy meeting summary indicates that the earliest possible interest rate hike could occur in December, aligning with market expectations [1] - A member of the policy committee stated that conditions for further normalization of policy rates are likely to be in place, emphasizing the need to continue monitoring core inflation trends [1] - The summary reveals a consensus among committee members that the timing for a rate hike is approaching, consistent with recent comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda [1] Group 2 - Following the summary release, the yen appreciated slightly against the dollar, trading at approximately 153.80 yen per dollar, recovering from a recent eight-month low of 154.48 [2] - Prime Minister Fumio Kishida expressed that Japan has not yet achieved sustainable inflation supported by wage growth, suggesting a preference for the Bank of Japan to slow down rate increases [2] - Kishida indicated that while consumer price index remains around 3% due to rising food prices, Japan has only completed half of the task towards achieving stable inflation supported by wage growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's recent meeting minutes indicate a growing consensus among policymakers for a potential interest rate hike, contingent on sustained corporate wage growth and economic conditions [1][2][3] Group 1: Interest Rate Hike Considerations - Eight out of nine committee members expressed the need for a timely interest rate increase or set specific conditions for a future hike [1] - The timing of any rate increase will depend on corporate earnings reports and executive statements confirming ongoing wage increases [1] - A committee member emphasized the importance of not missing the opportunity to raise rates, despite the current situation not necessitating immediate action [1] Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Decisions - The impact of U.S. tariffs and the wage growth momentum of Japanese companies are critical factors in determining the timing of the next rate hike [2] - Another committee member noted that raising the policy rate is part of the normalization process, which could help mitigate future economic distortions [3] Group 3: Political and Economic Context - The Bank of Japan maintained the interest rate at 0.5%, with two members opposing this decision and advocating for a rise to 0.75% [1] - Following the appointment of Prime Minister Kishida, who supports expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, the Bank of Japan faces political challenges regarding its monetary stance [3] - A recent survey indicated that a majority of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates within the current quarter, with nearly 96% predicting a hike by the end of March [3]