Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It presents the market mainstream views on different asset classes, including their price trends, strategy viewpoints, and corresponding利多 and利空 logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From May 12 to May 16, 2025, ethylene glycol had the highest weekly increase of 5.74% among commodities, while gold had the largest decline of 4.64%. Other commodities like iron ore, PTA, etc., also had different degrees of price changes [3]. - **Equities**: The NASDAQ Index had a significant increase of 7.15%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.09%, while the CSI 500 decreased by 0.10% [3]. - **Bonds**: Chinese government bonds of 5 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year terms all had price increases, with the 5 - year bond rising 4.06% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index increased by 0.56%, while the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.76% [3]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors include successful Sino - US tariff negotiations, a relatively loose market capital supply, and growth in the social financing scale.利空 factors are net out - flow of industry funds, reduction in ETF shares, and conservative domestic policies [5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are the unchanged loose monetary policy and reduced expectations of fiscal stimulus.利空 factors are the recovery of market risk appetite and limited space for further interest - rate cuts [5]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are low global crude oil inventories, positive Sino - US negotiation results, and potential uncertainty in OPEC+ production increases.利空 factors are Iran's potential nuclear - deal signing and an increase in US crude oil inventories [6]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are the growth of Malaysian palm oil shipping data, increased export competitiveness, and potential replenishment demand in India.利空 factors are high inventory pressure and a decline in crude oil prices [6]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are low copper concentrate TC, positive Sino - US tariff negotiations, and strong terminal demand.利空 factors are weak overseas demand and high inventory in China [7]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Soda Ash**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are concentrated maintenance in May and high exports.利空 factors are high industry inventory, new production capacity, and weak downstream demand [7]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors are the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and geopolitical uncertainties.利空 factors are the recovery of risk appetite and capital out - flow from gold ETFs [8]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are high molten iron production and low port inventory.利空 factors are expected increase in supply and weakening demand [8].

卓创资讯的分析指出，本计价周期前期，市场担忧欧佩克+将提高产量且特朗普关税政策将打击全球经 济，原油价格延续前期跌势。但随着中美达成贸易协议且市场猜测欧佩克+未来存在增产暂停的可能 性，原油价格呈现偏强运行。不过美国原油库存增加以及油市面临的过剩预期抑制油价上涨步伐，原油 价格出现反复。 金联创成品油分析师王延婷表示，后期来看，新一轮变化率将转为正向区间运行，消息面或向好发展。 需求方面，国内局部地区夏收陆续开启，农业用柴油量增加，而随着国内气温升高，车用空调逐步启 用，对于汽油需求有一定提振。且端午小长假前，部分用户或提前备货，汽柴油需求均存向好预期。虽 然后期主营炼厂复工增加，带动全国炼厂开工率回升，汽柴油资源供应量将提升。但短期内，市场受消 息面以及需求面支撑较为明显，下游用户多提前备货，预计汽柴油价格或存一定上涨空间。 据悉，下轮调价窗口期为2025年6月3日。 21世纪经济报道记者费心懿 上海报道 国家发展改革委今日消息，根据近期国际市场油价变化情况，按照现行成品油价格形成机制，2025年5 月19日24时汽、柴油零售限价分别下调230元/吨、220元/吨，折升价92#汽油、95#汽油、0#柴油分别 ...

Report Information - Report Date: May 15, 2025 [2] - Report Issuer: Shenyin Wanguo Futures Co., Ltd. [2] Industry Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. Core Views - For stock index futures, it is advisable to take a predominantly bullish stance, while for stock index options, a long straddle strategy can be used to capture the trending market after the direction is determined [2][8] - The price of Treasury bond futures has declined, and short - term fluctuations may increase [9] - The natural rubber market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [10] - The short - term outlook for methanol is bullish [12] - Glass and soda ash are in a cycle of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to their supply - demand digestion process and the impact of the overall commodity market on the real estate chain [13] - After a phased rebound, polyolefins may enter a high - level oscillatory consolidation phase in the future [14] - The fundamentals of coking coal continue to deteriorate, and for coke, there are expectations of a price cut [15] - Gold has entered a correction phase, and silver lacks upward momentum [17] - Copper and zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short term [18][19] - Shanghai aluminum is expected to be in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state, while nickel may follow the non - ferrous metal sector and show a slightly bullish and oscillatory trend [20][22] - The overall price of edible oils has declined, while protein meals are in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state [23][24] - Corn and corn starch may enter an oscillatory phase in the short term, and cotton is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [25][27] - The freight rate of the European container shipping line may increase, and the 08 contract is expected to remain strong [28] Summary by Directory 1. Main News Concerns of the Day International News - Oil prices dropped on Thursday due to expectations of a possible US - Iran nuclear agreement and an unexpected increase in US crude inventories last week [5] Domestic News - The CSRC will launch a new round of capital market reforms and introduce a package of policies to deepen the reforms of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [5] Industry News - In early May 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased compared to the previous period, with different trends in various regions [6] 2. Closing Comments on Major Varieties Financial Futures - Stock index futures declined, but short - term positive factors are present, and the valuation of major domestic indices is low [2][8] - Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance, and short - term fluctuations may intensify due to various factors such as the progress of Sino - US talks and economic data [9] Energy and Chemical - Rubber prices declined, and the market is expected to be in a weak and oscillatory state due to factors such as the progress of the harvest season and inventory [10] - Crude oil prices dropped, and attention should be paid to the impact of low oil prices on US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran [2][11] - Methanol prices decreased slightly, but the short - term outlook is bullish [12] - Glass and soda ash futures are in a consolidation phase, and attention should be paid to their supply - demand digestion and the impact of the overall market [13] - Polyolefins are in a consolidation phase, and after a phased rebound, they may enter a high - level oscillatory consolidation phase [14] Black Metals - Coking coal and coke prices are affected by macro - favorable factors, but the fundamentals of coking coal are deteriorating, and coke prices may face a cut [15] Metals - Gold and silver prices declined, and they are in a correction phase [17] - Copper, zinc, and other metal prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff negotiations and exchange rates [18][19] - Shanghai aluminum prices rose slightly, and it is expected to be in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state [20] - Nickel prices declined slightly, but it may follow the non - ferrous metal sector and show a slightly bullish and oscillatory trend [22] Agricultural Products - Edible oil prices declined due to factors such as the extension of the US clean fuel tax credit policy and the MPOB report [23] - Protein meal prices are in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state due to factors such as the USDA report and Sino - US talks [24] - Corn and corn starch prices may enter an oscillatory phase in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as imports and demand [25] - Cotton prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as new orders [27] Shipping Index - The European container shipping line showed a strong performance, and the 08 contract is expected to remain strong due to factors such as the easing of Sino - US tariff frictions [28] 3. Daily Views on Varieties The report provides a summary of the views on various varieties, including bullish, bearish, and neutral stances [29] 4. Daily Price Changes of Major Varieties The report presents the latest closing prices, price fluctuations, trading volumes, open interests, and other data of various varieties [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][3][4][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices declined slightly. The EIA data showed an increase in US crude oil inventories last week. Saudi Arabia's production increased in April, but the decline in production from some OPEC countries offset the growth. Russia is considering extending gasoline export restrictions. Oil prices are under pressure and oscillating after a continuous rebound [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, fuel oil futures rose. In May, the volume of low - sulfur arbitrage cargo shipped from the European market to Singapore is expected to decrease, while the inventory in Singapore is increasing due to more low - sulfur fuel oil blending components from the Middle East and South America. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be strongly supported by the increase in summer power generation demand. The absolute prices of FU and LU may remain stable, and it is advisable to consider a strategy of narrowing the LU - FU spread later [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, asphalt futures rose. This week, the total inventory of domestic refinery asphalt increased, the social inventory decreased, and the total operating rate of asphalt plants increased. Supply is expected to continue to increase, and market demand will increase slightly in the north but be affected by rainfall in the south. The absolute price of BU may remain stable, but the upside space is limited [3]. - **Polyester**: On Wednesday, polyester futures rose. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. Some MEG devices were under maintenance, and some polyester devices were restarted or newly put into operation. Crude oil prices strengthened, PTA device maintenance continued, and downstream inventory and operation rates were high. PTA futures may oscillate strongly, and the supply of ethylene glycol tightened in the short term, leading to a stronger price [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, rubber futures rose. As of May 11, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory increased slightly. The shortage of butadiene and the strengthening of crude oil prices led to an obvious rebound in butadiene rubber prices. The performance of natural rubber was relatively weak, and the Sino - US joint statement had limited impact on rubber prices [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, methanol prices showed certain fluctuations. The domestic methanol supply is at a high level due to good producer profits, while the Iranian device load has declined, and the arrival volume is lower than expected. The MTO device maintenance has been implemented, and the operation of traditional downstream industries is relatively stable. Methanol prices will recover, but there is still pressure on the upside [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, polyolefin prices showed certain trends. Refinery maintenance is increasing, and supply pressure is being relieved. The Sino - US trade negotiation has made important progress, and there may be an intention to rush for exports in the short term, so polyolefin prices will recover [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, PVC market prices increased. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the demand is relatively stable. Although the Sino - US trade negotiation has made significant progress, the upside space for PVC is expected to be limited [8] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI June contract closed down $0.52 to $63.15 per barrel, a decline of 0.82%. Brent July contract closed down $0.54 to $66.09 per barrel, a decline of 0.81%. SC2506 closed at 484.6 yuan per barrel, down 2.9 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.59%. US crude oil inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels to 441.8 million barrels in the week ending May 9 [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contract of fuel oil on the SHFE, FU2507, rose 1.12% to 3057 yuan per ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil, LU2507, rose 3.08% to 3647 yuan per ton. The low - sulfur arbitrage cargo volume from Europe to Singapore is expected to decrease in May, but the inventory in Singapore is increasing [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main contract of asphalt on the SHFE, BU2506, rose 1.24% to 3521 yuan per ton. This week, the total inventory level of domestic refinery asphalt was 30.50%, up 1.12% from last week; the social inventory rate was 35.32%, down 0.41% from last week; the total operating rate of domestic asphalt plants was 35.73%, up 3.62% from last week [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4874 yuan per ton, up 2.61%; EG2509 closed at 4506 yuan per ton, up 3.61%. Some MEG devices were under maintenance, and some polyester devices were restarted or newly put into operation [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contract of natural rubber, RU2509, rose 240 yuan per ton to 15235 yuan per ton; the main contract of 20 - number rubber, NR, rose 180 yuan per ton to 13035 yuan per ton; the main contract of butadiene rubber, BR, rose 175 yuan per ton to 12380 yuan per ton [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2505 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2137.5 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was between 258 - 262 US dollars per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was between 337 - 342 US dollars per ton [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was between 7200 - 7350 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 87.11 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based PP was 1096.2 yuan per ton [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, the market price of PVC in East China, North China, and South China increased. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the demand is relatively stable [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy and chemical products on May 14 and May 13, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [9] 3.3 Market News - OPEC reported that the crude oil production of all OPEC + member countries decreased by 106,000 barrels per day in April compared with March. Although eight OPEC + oil - producing countries vowed to start relaxing production cuts, the actual increase in supply was less than expected [11]. - The EIA data showed that as of the week ending May 9, the inventory of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increased by 528,000 barrels to 399.7 million barrels, reaching the highest level since the week ending October 28, 2022 [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][14][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [29][34][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [45][47][50] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [61][65][66] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report presents the production profit charts of some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow and PP production profit [69]

截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所6月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌0.52美元，收于每桶63.15美元，跌幅 为0.82%；7月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌0.54美元，收于每桶66.09美元，跌幅为0.81%。 美国能源信息局在当日发布的数据显示，美国上周商业原油库存量为4.418亿桶，环比增加350万桶，而 此前市场预期为减少110万桶。同期，美国汽油和蒸馏油库存分别环比下降100万桶和320万桶，丙烷和 丙烯库存则环比增加220万桶。 数据还显示，上周美国炼厂日均原油加工量为1640万桶，环比增加33万桶；上周美国炼厂平均开工率为 90.2%，高于前一周的89%；上周美国日均汽油供应量为879.4万桶，环比增加7.7万桶；上周美国日均原 油净进口量为247.2万桶，环比增加42.2万桶。 值得注意的是，上周美国库欣地区商业原油库存量为2390万桶，环比减少110万桶；上周美国战略原油 储备为3.99亿桶，环比增加52.8万桶；上周美国日均原油产量为1338.7万桶，环比增加2万桶。 新华财经纽约5月14日电（记者刘亚南） 上周美国原油库存意外增加和市场获利了结双重利空共振，国 际油价14日震荡收跌。 瑞银集 ...

美国至5月9日当周EIA原油库存、库欣原油库存、战略石油储备库存将于十分钟后公布。 ...

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View of the Report**: The night - session prices of both crude oil and methanol rose. Crude oil prices were affected by US CPI data, inventory changes, and strategic reserve adjustments. Methanol is expected to be short - term bullish, with开工 load and inventory conditions influencing its price [3] Futures Market Crude Oil - The previous day's closing prices of SC near - month, SC next - month, WTI near - month, WTI next - month, Brent near - month, and Brent next - month were 479.5, 470.5, 61.96, 61.53, 66.60, and 66.10 respectively. The price changes were - 2.8, - 2.1, 0.90, 0.95, 1.61, and 1.55, with corresponding percentage changes of - 0.58%, - 0.44%, 1.47%, 1.57%, 2.48%, and 2.40% [2] - The trading volumes were 77,046, 52,260, 290,296, 223,289, 417,955, and 270,581 respectively, and the open interests were 15,073, 24,340, 200,444, 280,659, 494,806, and 422,865 respectively. The changes in open interests were - 2650, 863, - 18975, 9999, - 32629, and - 513 respectively [2] - The current spreads of SC near - month - SC next - month, SC next - month - SC next - next - month, SC near - month - WTI near - month, SC near - month - Brent near - month, WTI near - month - WTI next - month, and Brent near - month - Brent next - month were 9.0, 470.5, 33.7, 0.3, 3.10, and 0.50 respectively, with previous values of 9.7, 182.6, 43.0, 14.7, 3.46, and 0.44 respectively [2] Methanol - The previous day's closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 2354, 2380, and 2291 respectively. The price changes were 20.0, 42.0, and 21.0, with percentage changes of 0.86%, 1.80%, and 0.93% respectively [2] - The trading volumes were 52,758, 990, and 766,446 respectively, and the open interests were 163,172, 3,319, and 764,051 respectively. The changes in open interests were 6087, - 542, and 6569 respectively [2] - The spot prices in the port (in US dollars), East China, North China, and South China were 260, 2465, 2230, and 2395 respectively, with price changes of 3, 10, 5, and 13 respectively [2] Market Commentary and Strategy Crude Oil - The night - session oil prices continued to rise. The US April CPI increased by 2.3% year - on - year, and the month - on - month data turned from - 0.1% to 0.2%, lower than the market expectation of 2.4% [3] - The API data showed that last week, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 4.287 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.374 million barrels, distillate inventories decreased by 3.675 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 850,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve increased by 500,000 barrels to 39.96 million barrels [3] Methanol - The night - session price of methanol rose by 2.1%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 75.99%, a decrease of 2.08 percentage points compared to the previous period [3] - As of May 8, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 75.65%, an increase of 1.22 percentage points compared to the previous period and 5.77 percentage points higher than the same period last year [3] - As of May 8, the coastal methanol inventory was 619,000 tons (at a historical low), an increase of 1,000 tons or 0.16% compared to April 30, and a decrease of 0.75% year - on - year. The estimated available methanol supply in the coastal area was around 212,000 tons [3] - According to incomplete statistics from Zhuochuang Information, the expected arrival volume of imported methanol ships from May 9 to May 25 is between 700,000 and 710,000 tons. Methanol is expected to be short - term bullish [3]

涤纶长丝市场近况交流 20250513 摘要 • 中美贸易摩擦对涤纶长丝直接出口影响小（占比 1.67%），但对整体纺织 品服装出口影响大（美国占中国总出口 11%，中国占美国进口 33%）， 南亚东南亚国家难以完全承接中国订单，美国或接受高价继续采购。 • 2025 年一季度中国纺织品服装出口增速 1%，低于孟加拉（6.4%）、越 南（11.1%）等国，但美国库存偏低，中国仍有机会通过提升产品附加值 保持竞争力。 • 2025 年全球主要经济体原油库存低位，海外成品库存也较低，一季度美 国、欧盟库存增速分别为 18.9%、24.7%，若油价维持低位缓步抬升，中 国纺织品服装直接出口将受益，一季度化纤机织物出口同比增速达 16%。 • 2025 年中国纺织品服装出口金额表现较弱，因成品端出口单价下降显著， 如化纤梭织物服装单价下降 10.9%，导致涤纶长丝、中端纺织品、服装出 口金额失速。4 月原料价格下跌，中端主动去库存。 • 目前涤纶长丝类坯布库存 33 天，高于五年均值 30 天，但 4 月底到 5 月初 订单环比抬升。终端 DTY 工厂和纱厂已开始去库存，DTY 大厂库存从 33 天降至 23 天，P ...

Group 1 - Key Point 1: The U.S. President Trump is scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, which may impact geopolitical relations and economic ties in the region [2] - Key Point 2: The Bank of Japan will release the summary of opinions from its April monetary policy meeting, which could provide insights into future monetary policy directions [2] - Key Point 3: The UK will report on the ILO unemployment rate for March, the unemployment rate for April, and the number of unemployment benefit claims for April, which are critical indicators of the labor market [2] Group 2 - Key Point 1: Germany and the Eurozone will release the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for May, which is a key indicator of economic expectations [2] - Key Point 2: The U.S. will publish the NFIB Small Business Confidence Index for April, along with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, including both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted figures [2] - Key Point 3: The Bank of England Governor Bailey is scheduled to give a speech, which may provide insights into the central bank's outlook and policy stance [2]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价重心回落，其中 WTI 6 月合约收盘下跌 1.02 美元至 58.07 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.73%。布伦特 7 月合约收盘下跌 1.03 美元至 61.12 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.66%。SC2506 以 459 元/桶收盘，下跌 7.1 元/桶， | | | | 跌幅 1.52%。美联储周三维持利率不变，但指出通胀和失业率上升 | | | | 的风险增加，在联储努力评估关税政策的影响之际，这进一步令 | | | | 经济前景蒙阴。FOMC 表示，经济前景的不确定性进一步增加。 | | | | 在这次会议上，决策者们一致同意将指标利率目标区间维持在 | | | | 4.25%-4.50%不变。EIA 公布的库存报告显示，截至 5 月 2 日当 | | | 原油 | 周，美国商业原油库存减少 200 万桶，至 4.384 亿桶，此前市场预 | 震荡 | | | 期为减少 80 万桶。截至 5 月 2 日 ...