【美国原油供需情况及全球原油市场动态受关注】当周美国原油产量基本平稳，环比降0.2万桶/日，至 1343.3万桶/日；贝克休斯石油钻井数减6台，处于历史低位，显示页岩油产量增长动力不足。同时，美 国原油进口量环比增97.5万桶/日，出口量大减196.5万桶/日，净进口量显著增加。 需求方面，美国原油 表需小幅下行，但仍高于历史同期均值。炼厂加工量环比小幅增长，整体需求端表现符合旺季预期。 库存上，6月27日当周美国商业库存累库384.5万桶，因净进口量增加；库欣地区去库149.3万桶，需求地 PADD3库存累库504.2万桶。 成品油供应方面，上周炼厂开工率回升0.2%至94.9%，处于较高水平。美 国炼厂检修量低位，预计旺季开工率维持高位。 成品油消费端，表需环比基本平稳，各类油品走势分 化。出行方面，汽油需求大幅下降，航煤基本平稳；工业油品方面，馏分油和丙烷&丙烯表需均小幅上 升。七月暑期旅游旺季，高速行驶里程和坐飞机人数处于高位。 成品油库存方面，汽油累库418.8万 桶，因需求回落、产量增加；馏分燃料油去库171.0万桶，因需求持续走强。 全球原油市场，EIA数据 显示原油小幅累库，旺季需求符合预期。 ...

Market Overview - As of July 3, Iran has suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, raising concerns about geopolitical instability and leading to an increase in international oil prices. NYMEX crude futures for August rose by $2.00 to $67.45 per barrel, a 3.06% increase; ICE Brent futures for September rose by $2.00 to $69.11 per barrel, a 2.98% increase [1] Key Information - In the first five months of 2025, China's crude oil imports from the Middle East accounted for 42.5%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year and down 5.6 percentage points from the five-year average. Conversely, imports from the Asia-Pacific region rose to 15.0%, an increase of 4.0 percentage points year-on-year and up 6.3 percentage points from the five-year average. Imports from South America accounted for 10.1%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the five-year average [2] - Shandong independent refineries operated at a crude distillation capacity of 50.74%, down 0.74 percentage points from the previous week. Specific operations included maintenance at Hualian, while Changyi's crude distillation unit was operational, and other secondary units remained idle [2] - Ecuador's state-owned oil pipeline company OCP has preemptively closed its crude oil pipeline to construct a new bypass due to accelerated erosion issues. Meanwhile, Petroamazonas is repairing pipelines along a new route, with leakage issues under control [2] - Polish refiner Orlen has ceased purchasing Russian crude oil for its Litvinov refinery in the Czech Republic, marking the end of its last contract with Rosneft [2] Production and Investment - Mexico's oil production is expected to drop to levels not seen since the late 1970s, with an average daily output of 1.62 million barrels from January to May 2024, the lowest since 1979. June exports fell to a historic low of 529,000 barrels per day due to declining production and reduced output from the Dos Bocas refinery [3] - Argentine energy company Pampa Energia announced a $426 million investment to build an oil and gas processing plant in the Vaca Muerta shale region, located in the Neuquén province, with plans for production to commence next year [3] Price Dynamics - Overnight oil price increases were primarily driven by geopolitical events and trade developments, although fundamental factors limited the extent of the price rise. Iran's suspension of cooperation with the UN nuclear agency raised concerns about supply disruptions, increasing risk premiums. Additionally, a trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on exports to Vietnam, boosted demand expectations. However, OPEC+ production increases have been fully priced in, and U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 3.8 million barrels, contrary to analyst expectations of a 1.8 million barrel decrease. Gasoline demand fell to 8.6 million barrels per day, below the healthy summer threshold of 9 million barrels, raising concerns about consumption fatigue [4] Outlook - The recommendation is to maintain a wait-and-see approach, with WTI resistance levels at [67,68], Brent pressure at [69,70], and SC at [510,520]. Options trading may capture volatility opportunities, for reference only [5]

美国能源信息署（EIA）：美国上周EIA原油库存增加385万桶，彭博用户预计减少400万桶、分析师预 期减少269.200万桶，之前一周下降583.6万桶。 ...

美国至6月27日当周EIA原油库存、库欣原油库存、战略石油储备库存将于十分钟后公布。 ...

美国石油协会（API）数据显示，6月27日当周，美国API原油库存 +68万桶，之前一周 -427.7万桶。 ...

Key Points - The article highlights important financial data and events to be monitored on July 2, 2025, including U.S. API crude oil inventory and Eurozone unemployment rate [1] - It lists specific times for the release of various economic indicators, such as U.S. Challenger job cuts and ADP employment figures [1] - The article emphasizes the significance of EIA crude oil inventory data, including Cushing and strategic petroleum reserve inventories, which are crucial for understanding market dynamics [1]

Economic Data and Events - Key focus on economic events and data on July 1, including China's June Caixin Manufacturing PMI at 09:45 [1] - The UK Nationwide House Price Index month-on-month change at 14:00 [1] - France's June Manufacturing PMI final value at 15:50 [1] - Germany's June Manufacturing PMI final value and seasonally adjusted unemployment rate at 15:55 [1] - Eurozone's June Manufacturing PMI final value at 16:00 [1] - UK's June Manufacturing PMI final value at 16:30 [1] - Eurozone's June CPI at 17:00 [1] - US June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value at 21:45 [1] - US June ISM Manufacturing PMI, May JOLTs job openings, and May construction spending month-on-month change at 22:00 [1] - API crude oil inventory for the week ending June 28 at 04:30 the next day [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - After the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, the oil market entered a phase of rest and consolidation. The decrease in US EIA crude oil inventories and significant drawdowns in refined oil products supported a slight increase in oil prices. PX prices are close to pre - rally levels, with solid bottom support due to low inventory. PX's future profitability depends on unexpected factors. PTA prices declined slightly due to concerns about downstream polyester factory production cuts, with its inventory in a downward absolute - value trend but at a near - five - year high relative value. Polyester products are expected to follow the decline in oil prices. The polyester bottle - chip market has a mixed supply - side price trend, with expected tightening of market supply and potential improvement in downstream demand. The polyester industry chain is expected to fluctuate with costs, with PX, PTA, and PR all expected to move in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On June 26, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $65.24 per barrel, up 0.49%; Brent crude oil futures settled at $67.73 per barrel, up 0.07%. Naphtha spot price in CFR Japan was $568.75 per ton, down 1.81%. Isomer - grade xylene FOB Korea was $725 per ton, down 0.21%. PX CFR China Main Port was $853 per ton, up 0.51% [1] - **PTA**: CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4,770 yuan per ton, down 0.42%; settlement price was 4,762 yuan per ton, down 0.38%. Near - month contract closing price was 4,976 yuan per ton, down 0.72%; settlement price was 4,974 yuan per ton, down 0.80%. Domestic PTA spot price was 5,023 yuan per ton, down 0.53%. CCFEI PTA domestic price index was 5,025 yuan per ton, down 0.46%; foreign price index was $642 per ton (as of June 25), down 0.93%. Near - far month spread was 212 yuan per ton, a decrease of 22 yuan; basis was 255 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3 yuan [1] - **PX**: CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6,722 yuan per ton, down 0.53%; settlement price was 6,710 yuan per ton, down 0.62%. Near - month contract closing price was 6,854 yuan per ton, down 0.93%; settlement price was 6,848 yuan per ton, down 1.50%. Domestic PX spot price was 6,889 yuan per ton, unchanged. PX CFR Taiwan was $853 per ton, up 0.35%; FOB Korea was $828 per ton, up 0.36%. PXN spread was $284.25 per ton, up 5.50%; PX - MX spread was $128 per ton, up 4.77%. Basis was 167 yuan per ton, an increase of 36 yuan [1] - **PR**: CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5,930 yuan per ton, down 0.50%; settlement price was 5,936 yuan per ton, down 0.30%. Near - month contract closing price was 6,010 yuan per ton, down 0.56%; settlement price was 6,024 yuan per ton, down 0.33%. East China market polyester bottle - chip price was 6,050 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; South China market was 6,120 yuan per ton, down 0.33%. East China market basis was 120 yuan per ton, an increase of 20 yuan; South China market basis was 190 yuan per ton, an increase of 10 yuan [1] - **Downstream**: On June 26, 2025, CCFEI polyester DTY price index was 9,150 yuan per ton, down 0.54%; POY was 7,425 yuan per ton, down 0.34%; FDY68D and FDY150D were both 7,450 yuan per ton, unchanged; polyester staple fiber was 6,785 yuan per ton, unchanged; polyester chip was 5,925 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; bottle - grade chip was 6,050 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [2] Production and Operation Information - **Operating Rate**: On June 26, 2025, PX operating rate was 80.43%, down 2.27 percentage points; PTA factory load rate was 78.56%, unchanged; polyester factory load rate was 89.35%, down 0.66 percentage points; bottle - chip factory load rate was 80.20%, down 2.26 percentage points; Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rate was 65.10%, down 2.54 percentage points [1] - **Sales Rate**: On June 26, 2025, polyester filament sales rate was 28%, up 6 percentage points; polyester staple fiber sales rate was 43%, down 12 percentage points; polyester chip sales rate was 40%, down 6 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the northwest plans to restart between May 15 and 20. A 1 - million - ton PX plant in Shandong has started its scheduled maintenance, maintaining a tight - balance situation in the domestic market [2] Trading Strategy - PTA's TA2509 contract closed at 4,770 yuan per ton, down 0.21%, with a trading volume of 1.06 million lots. PX's PX2509 contract closed at 6,722 yuan per ton, down 0.44%, with a trading volume of 290,400 lots. PR's 2509 contract closed at 5,930 yuan per ton, down 0.40%, with a trading volume of 60,700 lots. The polyester industry chain is expected to fluctuate with costs, with PX, PTA, and PR all expected to move in a volatile manner (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - The EIA weekly data report shows that inventories decreased across the board, and the apparent demand for gasoline strengthened [1] Group 2: Key Data - As of June 20, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 415.106 million barrels, a week-on-week decrease of 5.836 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 800,000 barrels. Cushing inventories decreased by 464,000 barrels, while strategic reserve inventories increased by 237,000 barrels [2] - Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.075 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 400,000 barrels. Distillate inventories decreased by 4.066 million barrels, also contrary to the expected increase of 400,000 barrels [2] Group 3: Data Changes - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.836 million barrels from June 13 to June 20 [3] - U.S. strategic reserve inventories increased by 237,000 barrels during the same period [3] - U.S. gasoline inventories decreased by 2.075 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 4.066 million barrels [3] - U.S. crude oil production increased by 4,000 barrels per day, and net imports increased by 531,000 barrels per day [3] - U.S. crude oil processing volume increased by 125,000 barrels per day [3] - The four-week smoothed U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand increased by 67,750 barrels per day, and gasoline apparent demand increased by 59,000 barrels per day [3] Group 4: Report Analysis - Last week, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell below the five-year seasonal low for the second consecutive week. Strong refinery demand and low net imports contributed to the decline [4] - The EIA report is relatively positive. Both surface and internal data are strong, with significant inventory decreases and improving demand [6] - Gasoline demand has recovered, leading to an unexpected decline in gasoline inventories despite high refinery utilization. Gasoline inventories are generally neutral [9] - Distillate demand has improved marginally but remains relatively low compared to the same period in previous years [9]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-26原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2508： 1.基本面：美国总统特朗普对伊以战争迅速结束表示欢迎，并表示华盛顿可能会在下周与伊朗官员会谈， 寻求德黑兰承诺结束其核野心；美联储主席鲍威尔对参议院金融委员会表示，特朗普政府的关税计划很可 能只会导致物价一次性上涨，但引发更持久通胀的风险大到足以让美联储在考虑进一步降息时保持谨慎； 中性 2.基差：6月25日，阿曼原油现货价为67.88美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为67.88美元/桶，基4.74元/ 桶，现货平水期货；中性 3.库存：美国截至6月20日当周API原油库存减少427.7万桶，预期减少18. ...