Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts copper prices may peak at $10,050 per ton by the end of 2025, with an average price adjustment to $9,890 for the second half of 2025 [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 40% chance of recession in the U.S. due to tariff-induced stagflation, lowering the GDP growth estimate for 2025 to 1.3% [2] - Morgan Stanley reports a decline in global demand for long-term assets, predicting 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to be 3.50% and 4.35% respectively by year-end [3] Group 2 - Barclays indicates mild selling pressure on the dollar by the end of June, while the euro shows weak signals for a significant rebound [4] - Mitsubishi UFJ suggests the Bank of England may slow its quantitative tightening pace, with potential announcements in September [5] - Bank of America states that since the announcement of tariffs, interest rate differentials are no longer the main driver of the dollar's movement, reflecting structural risks in the U.S. economy [6] Group 3 - French Foreign Trade Bank's survey shows that 41% of respondents view currency depreciation as the main risk of holding cash, with 38% preferring better returns elsewhere [7] - Westpac anticipates the Reserve Bank of Australia may cut rates in July, but emphasizes that this is not a certainty [8] - China International Capital Corporation notes potential recovery in the photovoltaic industry, with a beta opportunity of 30%-50% if expectations improve [5][6]

与此同时，通胀问题依然棘手。Sløk预测，到年底，美国的通胀率可能仍将维持在百分之三左右，远高于美联储百分之二的目标水平。这一数字较此前百分 之二点四的预测显著上升，反映出物价压力的持续性。尽管美联储已采取了一系列紧缩措施，但通胀的黏性使得市场对降息的预期不断推迟，进一步加剧了 经济的不确定性。 劳动力市场的表现同样不容乐观。Sløk预计，美国失业率将在未来十八个月内持续攀升，今年可能从当前的百分之四点二升至四点四， 而到明年或将突破百分之五。历史经验表明，失业率的上升往往与滞胀周期相伴而生。上世纪七八十年代，美国曾经历严重的滞胀，失业率一度飙升至接近 百分之十的高位。如今，类似的阴影似乎正在重现。 Sløk在一份最新研究报告中指出，美国经济增长已显疲态，而通胀压力却未见明显缓解。他认为，这一局面的形成与近年来贸易政策的调整密切相关。关税 政策的变动不仅增加了经济下行的风险，还推高了物价水平，形成了典型的滞胀冲击。华尔街对今年经济增长的预期已普遍下调，而对通胀的预测则小幅上 升，这种趋势进一步印证了滞胀的可能性。 美国经济增长放缓已成为不争的事实。Sløk预计，今年美国GDP增速可能降至百分之一点二，较去年第 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is at a critical juncture of stagflation, characterized by slowing economic growth and high inflation, primarily driven by Trump's tariff policies [1] Economic Predictions - GDP growth is expected to be halved to approximately 1.2% by 2025, down from a peak of 3.1% in Q3 2024 [2] - Inflation is projected to hover around 3% by the end of the year, significantly up from the 2.4% forecast prior to the tariffs [3] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to rise to over 5% by 2026, increasing from the current 4.2% [4] - There is a 25% probability of recession within the next 12 months, a shift from previous expectations of no recession prior to the tariffs [5]

今年4月，在美国总统特朗普宣布全面加征关税引发市场动荡期间，美国国债收益率曾急剧攀升。摩根 大通预测，美国两年期国债收益率年末将收于3.5%，基准十年期收益率将达4.35%。截至周三，二者分 别报3.8%和4.3%。 由于关税导致的顽固通胀和经济韧性，该行预计美联储在2025年12月至2026年春季期间将累计降息100 个基点，这个时点晚于利率期货交易员的普遍预期——截至周三，市场押注今年将进行两次25个基点的 降息。分析师补充称，若出现经济衰退或增速超预期下滑，或将引发更激进的降息周期。 报告称："关税上调带来的滞胀效应，是我们调降今年GDP增长预期的关键动因。我们仍认为经济衰退 风险居高不下。" 据了解，滞胀这种经济增长停滞与持续通胀并存的棘手局面，曾在上世纪70年代长期困扰美国经济。 鉴于美国经济增长动能减弱，而其他经济体实施的增长支持政策将提振新兴市场等货币，这家美资银行 对美元前景持悲观态度。而随着美国债务市场规模不断扩大，该行预计外国投资者、美联储及商业银行 对美国国债的需求占比将逐步下降。 报告指出，投资者持有美债所要求的风险补偿(即期限溢价)可能随时间推移上升40-50个基点，但预计不 会重现 ...

Core Insights - The discussion at the Summer Davos Forum highlighted the shifting global role of the United States, focusing on concerns about stagflation, isolation, and debt [1][4][10] Group 1: Stagflation Risks - The increase in tariffs by the U.S. is expected to raise inflation and hinder economic growth, with experts predicting that the impact on prices will become evident in 5 to 6 months [5][6] - A 5% to 10% increase in U.S. tariff rates could lead to a GDP growth slowdown of 0.25% to 0.75% [6] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is affecting corporate investment, hiring, and expansion decisions, potentially leading to a stagflation scenario where inflation and economic slowdown coexist [8] Group 2: Trade Isolation - The U.S. is likely to struggle in tariff negotiations, as other countries are accelerating their cooperation, which could lead to the U.S. facing relative isolation [9] - The trend of the U.S. withdrawing from international treaties and organizations has contributed to its diminishing global role, with other nations continuing to strengthen multilateral cooperation [10] Group 3: Debt Crisis - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, accounting for 123% of GDP, significantly exceeding international warning thresholds [11] - The growing debt burden implies that a large portion of future tax revenues will be allocated to debt repayment rather than economic development [11] - The interplay of stagflation, isolation, and debt crises poses a risk of a larger economic crisis, with increasing probabilities of recession as tariffs are implemented [11]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that U.S. economic growth will slow down due to tariffs, with a 40% chance of recession in the near future [1] Economic Outlook - The report indicates that U.S. GDP growth rate for 2025 is expected to be 1.3%, down from the earlier forecast of 2% [1] - The impact of tariff increases is cited as the reason for the downward revision of this year's GDP growth expectations [1] Currency and Monetary Policy - Morgan Stanley is bearish on the U.S. dollar, attributing this to the slowdown in U.S. economic growth [1] - The firm anticipates that policies supporting growth outside the U.S. will boost other currencies, including those of emerging markets [1] - A forecast of a 100 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected between December and spring 2026 [1] - If a recession or a more significant economic slowdown occurs, a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle may be triggered [1] Stock Market Perspective - Despite the uncertainties in policy, Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about the U.S. stock market, citing the resilience of consumers and the economy [1]

鲍威尔：滞胀并非基本假设，但美联储正监控美国的价格。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：如果出现滞胀，美联储将陷入困境。 ...

鲍威尔称滞胀并非基准情境，但美联储正在监测。(智通财经) ...

美联储纽约联储主席威廉姆斯近日的讲话，揭示了美国经济当前所面临的微妙转向：一方面是持续的价格压力，另一方面却是增长动能 的显著削弱。在他看来，贸易政策所引发的结构性冲击已开始对经济形成双重压制——既推高了成本，也削弱了劳动力供给和消费支 出。尤其是在特朗普政府维持高关税政策背景下，市场对"滞胀"风险的担忧已不再只是学术层面的猜测。 威廉姆斯预测，今年美国GDP增长将放缓至1%左右，失业率也将从当前的4.2%上升至4.5%。这对一个刚从疫情冲击中走出的经济体而言 无疑是一种警告信号。过去两年，美国经济的复苏更多得益于消费支出的强劲反弹和就业市场的快速修复，而如今这些支撑正在逐步减 弱。他特别提到关税政策对企业成本结构的改变、对移民供给的抑制以及对投资前景不确定性的增加，这些因素都在综合作用于当前的 增长路径。 由于关税带来的成本推动效应，威廉姆斯预计通胀率将在今年上升至3%，远高于美联储2%的政策目标。尽管他表示通胀将在未来两年逐 步回落，但这一判断本身也建立在诸多前提假设之上，例如能源价格稳定、全球供应链修复以及消费预期受控。一旦任何一个变量出现 偏离，通胀回落路径可能变得更长更曲折。 DLSM外汇认为在高利 ...