通胀率预期仍然保持合理锚定。 美国克利夫兰联储主席Hammack：美联储处于可以保持耐心的有利位置。 ...

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Canada decreased from 2.3% in March to 1.7% in April, slightly above market expectations of 1.6% and the Bank of Canada's forecast of 1.5% [1] - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by a significant drop in energy prices, with gasoline prices falling by 18.1% and natural gas prices by 14.1% [1][4] - Core inflation, excluding energy, rose to 2.9% from 2.5% in March, indicating persistent structural inflationary pressures [2][4] Inflation Data Overview - Year-on-year inflation rate: 1.7% (down from 2.3% in March), mainly due to a 12.7% drop in energy prices [1] - Monthly inflation rate: decreased by 0.1%, better than analysts' expectations of a 0.2% decline [1] - Core CPI median increased from 2.8% in March to 3.2%, the highest since March 2024 [3] Structural Inflation Dynamics - CPI excluding extreme values rose from 2.9% to 3.1%, reaching a 13-month high [4] - Food prices in stores increased by 3.8% year-on-year, with fresh beef (+16.2%), coffee and tea (+13.4%), and fresh vegetables (+3.7%) being significant contributors [4] - Restaurant food prices rose by 3.6%, reflecting persistent inflation in the service sector [4] Tourism and Service Prices - Travel prices increased by 6.7% year-on-year, rebounding by 3.7% month-on-month, indicating a seasonal demand recovery [5] Policy Implications - The Bank of Canada has paused its interest rate cuts, with core inflation becoming a focal point ahead of the June 4 rate decision [5] - The central bank has cut rates seven times since June 2024 and emphasized the need to act decisively to control inflation if necessary [5] - The impact of tariffs on inflation has been embedded in final prices, with ongoing monitoring of international trade policies [5]

加拿大整体通胀率降至八个月低点 金十数据5月20日讯，受能源价格下跌和联邦消费者碳税结束的推动，加拿大4月份的整体通胀年率降至 8个月来的最低水平。加拿大统计局周二表示，加拿大整体CPI较上年同期上涨1.7%。道明证券的经济 学家表示，市场原本预计该指数将从上月的2.3%降至1.6%。环比来看，价格下跌0.1%，而市场普遍预 期为下跌0.2%。 ...

欧洲央行管委诺特：欧洲央行的预测可能会显示今年和明年的通胀率较低，但长期的通胀是不确定的。 ...

罗马尼亚央行：预计2026年底的年通胀率为3.4%，此前预计为3.1%。 ...

澳洲联储：全球贸易战对经济构成重大下行风险 金十数据5月20日讯，澳洲联储周二表示，由于受全球贸易紧张局势的连带影响，通胀率将下降，而失 业率将上升，即使假设降息幅度达到市场预期。澳洲联储在周二发布的季度货币政策声明中称，核心通 胀的降温速度略快于预期，服务业明显放缓。该央行还警告称，美国总统特朗普关税政策将拖低全球经 济增长率，并且总体上有助降低澳洲通胀率。 ...

印尼财长：预计2026年整体通胀率将处于1.5%-3.5%区间。 ...

Core Insights - The recent U.S. inflation data showed a slight decline, with the overall annual inflation rate dropping to 2.3%, which was unexpected as many anticipated a rise [3] - The core inflation rate remained at 2.8%, and while there were increases in some monthly data, they were still below market expectations [3] - The ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine may impact market sentiment in the coming days [1] Inflation Data Summary - The overall annual inflation rate decreased to 2.3%, contrary to expectations of a potential rise [3] - Core inflation remained stable at 2.8%, with monthly data showing increases but still falling short of market forecasts [3] - Gasoline prices significantly dropped, but rising natural gas prices offset this decline [3] Currency Pair Analysis - The EUR/USD temporarily fell below 1.12, reflecting market reactions to the U.S. inflation data and trade tensions [5] - The GBP/USD has maintained above 1.32, supported by positive economic indicators and less political turmoil compared to other countries [6][8] - The upcoming U.S. GDP and PCE data releases on May 29 and 30 are expected to influence market movements significantly [5] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment remains cautious due to the unclear long-term effects of trade tensions, despite a temporary easing of U.S.-China tensions [5][8] - The GBP/USD trading volume has not significantly decreased since early April, indicating stable market interest [8] - The upcoming U.K. inflation data, expected to show a rise to 3.3%, could significantly impact market trends [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is willing to tolerate short-term negative inflation rates, indicating a flexible approach to monetary policy in response to economic conditions [1] Group 1 - The SNB's stance reflects a broader strategy to manage economic fluctuations and maintain stability in the financial system [1] - Short-term negative inflation rates may be seen as a temporary phenomenon rather than a long-term concern for the central bank [1] - This approach may influence market expectations and investor sentiment regarding future monetary policy actions [1]

2025/5/19 10:08 【国富期货早间看点】GAPKI敦促推迟上调⽑棕榈油出⼝专项税 66% 20250519 【国富期货早间看点】GAPKI敦促推迟上调毛棕榈油出口专项税 阿 根廷大豆收割率达66%领先于去年同期 20250519 2025年05月19日 07:20 | | | | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油07(BMD) | 3825.00 | -0.96 | 1 | | 布伦特07(ICE) | 65. 33 | 1.10 | 0.57 | | 美原油07(NYMEX) | 61.93 | 1.14 | 0. 58 | | 美豆07(CBOT) | 1051.00 | -0. 21 | -0. 02 | | 美豆粕07(CBOT) | 291. 80 | -1.52 | -0. 17 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 48.92 | -0. 81 | -0. 39 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 100. 96 | 0. ...