全球债市28日又迎"煤矿中的金丝雀"时刻，40年期日债拍卖投标倍数创去年7月来新低。财政困境结构 性问题不除，日债美债动荡就难以轻易结束。 40年期日债拍卖投标倍数创去年7月来新低 过去几周来，全球债券收益率一直在稳步上升，而上周，由于投资者对主要发达经济体（尤其是日本和 美国）债务水平的担忧日益加剧，以及日本人寿保险公司等超长日本国债传统买家的需求减弱，日债、 美债的抛售压力突然加剧。在27日短暂喘息后，日债市场28日又面临40年期债券拍卖考验。上周的20年 期日债拍卖需求创下十多年来最弱水平，导致收益率飙升至创纪录高点。 在28日拍卖前，市场就已提前计价。40年期日本国债收益率上涨8个基点至3.365%，30年期日债收益率 攀升5个基点至2.88%，20年期收益率在前一交易日跌至约三周低点后涨7个基点至2.45%。上周，30年 期和40年期日债收益率分别创下3.185%和3.675%的历史新高，20年期日债收益率也创下2.60%的数十年 新高。 最终，40年期日债拍卖认购倍数为2.2，低于上次的2.9，为2024年11月来最低需求水平；投标倍数为 2.21，创2024年7月以来新低，最高得标收益率为3.1 ...

美联储内部分歧曝光。 据最新消息，美联储官员透露，目前美联储内部正在进行一场"辩论"：部分美联储官员呼吁将关税政策的影响 视为暂时的通胀冲击，应优先考虑通过降息来支持美国经济增长；另一部分官员则认为，关税的中长期影响可 能还不明朗，因此货币政策需要更加谨慎。 当地时间5月27日，由日本央行及其附属智库主办的为期两天的年度央行会议在东京日本央行总部开幕。 美国明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利（Neel Kashkari）当天在会议上表示，面对特朗普的关税政策带来的 通胀风险，美联储内部对于利率如何变动持有不同观点。 卡什卡利透露，目前美联储内部正在进行一场"辩论"：部分美联储官员呼吁将关税政策的影响视为一种暂时的 通胀冲击，应优先考虑通过降息来支持美国经济增长；另一部分官员则反对将关税引发的通胀视为暂时现象， 并认为美国与其他贸易伙伴的贸易谈判不太可能很快得到解决，关税的中长期影响可能还不明朗，因此货币政 策需要更加谨慎。 他表示："贸易谈判可能需要几个月或几年的时间才能完全结束。随着美国与其贸易伙伴相互采取回应措施， 可能会出现针锋相对地提高关税的情况。" 他补充说，对中间产品征收关税的全部影响将需要一定时 ...

津巴布韦统计局表示，按本币计算，津巴布韦年同比通货膨胀率可能达92.1%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of stagflation, characterized by the coexistence of high inflation and high unemployment, which challenges traditional economic theories and policies [2][9]. Group 1: Definition and Characteristics of Stagflation - Stagflation is defined as an economic condition where stagnation (slow or negative growth) and inflation (rising prices) occur simultaneously [3]. - It disrupts the traditional trade-off between inflation and unemployment, leading to a complex economic environment [2]. Group 2: Causes of Stagflation - Supply shocks, such as sudden increases in oil prices, are classic causes of stagflation, leading to higher costs and reduced economic activity [2][7]. - Poor economic policies, including overly loose monetary and fiscal measures, can exacerbate inflation without addressing stagnation [2][7]. - Other contributing factors include restrictive production policies, wage-price spirals, and self-fulfilling inflation expectations [7]. Group 3: Historical Context and Market Reactions - The 1970s in the U.S. serve as a historical example of stagflation, marked by high inflation rates reaching nearly 15% and unemployment rates exceeding 8% [6][8]. - The stock market suffered significantly during this period, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average showing little to no growth, and many previously popular stocks collapsing [6][8]. - Bond markets also faced challenges, with rising interest rates leading to falling bond prices and negative real yields [8][12]. Group 4: Policy Responses to Stagflation - Initial policy responses included price and wage controls, which failed to resolve underlying issues and led to market distortions [8]. - The later approach involved aggressive monetary tightening under Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, which successfully reduced inflation but resulted in a severe economic recession [8][9]. - The experience of the 1970s highlights the dilemma policymakers face: stimulating the economy can worsen inflation, while tightening can deepen stagnation [9]. Group 5: Implications for Current Economic Conditions - Understanding the causes and historical responses to stagflation is crucial for analyzing current economic conditions in the U.S. and globally [10].

在穆迪下调美国主权信用评级以及众议院通过特朗普的高税收支出法案后，市场对美国不断膨胀的赤字 的焦虑加剧。美国国会预算办公室预计，这可能使赤字增加近4万亿美元。长期国债收益率飙升，30年 期国债收益率达到5.14%，引发了对债务货币化和通货膨胀的担忧。因此，黄金相对于传统美国资产更 受青睐。 【黄金走势分析】 周二(5月27日)亚市盘中，国际黄金窄幅下跌，截至发稿金价报3337.92美元/盎司，跌幅0.14%。日内将 可关注美国4月耐用品订单月率、美国3月FHFA房价指数月率、美国5月谘商会消费者信心指数、美国5 月达拉斯联储商业活动指数等数据，市场预期整体先利好后利空，因而日内走势仍偏向震荡走盘的行情 去对待，多空都有机会。 【要闻速递】 特朗普决定将对欧盟商品征收50%关税的最后期限延长至7月9日，这短暂地缓解了地缘政治紧张局势。 上周末，美国总统表示，在与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩通电话后，他同意延期，称配合正在进行的贸易 谈判是一种"荣幸"。这一举动与上周的激进言论形成了鲜明对比，当时特朗普威胁要"直接征收50%的 关税"，并提议对在美国境外制造的苹果手机征收25%的税。 尽管周一出现回调，但从更广泛的技术 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's debt and tariff policies are pushing the country towards a financial crisis, with increasing inflation and loss of investor confidence in debt management [1][2]. Group 1: Debt and Economic Policies - The U.S. government is promoting a massive tax cut bill, which is seen as disastrous and likely to increase inflation [1]. - Investors are losing confidence in the U.S. government's ability to manage its debt, leading to concerns about the potential for a debt sell-off [1][2]. - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to rising debt and interest expenditures [1]. Group 2: Impact on Financial Markets - The U.S. Treasury had to sell 20-year bonds at high interest rates, with 10-year and 30-year bond yields reaching levels not seen since before the 2007 financial crisis [1]. - By the end of 2026, the U.S. will need to restructure $9 trillion in debt, replacing low-interest old debt with high-interest new debt, which is becoming increasingly unattractive to investors [1]. Group 3: Consequences of Debt Management - A potential sell-off of U.S. Treasuries could lead to significant wealth evaporation, particularly affecting U.S. savers [2]. - Central banks may shift reserves from U.S. Treasuries to gold, resulting in a substantial increase in gold prices [2]. - Continued escalation of trade wars and unreliability of the U.S. could lead to a complete loss of confidence in the dollar, signaling a systemic collapse [2].

Sessionid:rjqpwdg0e5iajcya2jwtr55y ECONOMICS 23 May 2025 Week Ahead in Economics Tariff man strikes again From On Our Minds Europe ECB preview: hawks turn to favour 'looking through' China: Demand spillovers larger than tariff damage Latin America LatAm central banks likely to consider the recent rise in core inflation as transitory Just when markets believed the worst of the tariff battle had been overcome, President Trump threatened a 50% tariff against the EU this week, starting on 1 June, and a possible ...

插 图 来 源 ： JOSUE EVILLA ; 图 片 来 源 ： FROM A PHOTOGRAPH BY AARON SCHWARTZ— SIPA/BLOOMBERG/GETTY IMAGES 尽管最近数月通胀有所降温，但这仍不足以缓解退休人员的担忧。他们几乎都担心积蓄会比预期更快地 消耗殆尽。而且，由于唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统推行的影响面甚广的关税政策可能导致物 价上涨，社会保障生活成本调整幅度可能降低，他们的担忧可能进一步加剧。 资产管理公司施罗德（Schroders）2025年美国退休调查显示，92%的退休人员表示担心通货膨胀会削弱 其资产价值，该比例较去年的89%有所上升，成为他们列出的首要担忧。约45%的受访者表示退休后开 支高于预期。 施罗德集团美国固定缴款业务主管黛布·博伊登（Deb Boyden）表示："通胀数据虽有所好转，却并未缓 解退休人员的担忧。住房、食品以及医疗保健等生活必需品价格的攀升，极大地削弱了退休人员的购买 力与财务安全感。" 此外，每年的社会保障生活成本调整（COLA）也极有可能无法填补这一差额。尽管涨幅将于10月正式 揭晓，但无党派倡导组织老年人 ...

作 者丨娄世艳 王应贵 美元指数继续走弱，截至5月26日19:45，美元指数最新报99.0539，跌0.07%。 美国国债市场面临较大风险 编 辑丨和佳 金珊 5月26日，欧股开盘普遍高开，德国DAX指数涨1.76%，法国CAC40指数涨1.32%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.64%。截至19:45， 德国DAX指数涨 1.70%，法国CAC40指数涨1.18%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.50% | 英国富时100 | 法国CAC40 德国DAX | | --- | --- | | 8717.97 | 7825.35 24030.29 | | -21.29 -0.24% | +90.95 +1.18% +400.71 +1.70% | | 意大利MIB | 俄罗斯MOEX 欧洲STOXX50 | | 39987.16 | 5406.43 2712.81 | | +511.80 +1.30% | -57.29 -2.07% +80.12 +1.50% | 消息面上，据新华社消息，5月25日，美国总统特朗普说，在与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩通电话后，他同意将对欧盟征收50%关税的起征时间 从6月1日延至7月9日。 与此同时 ...

9:52am: Tariff tweets shake markets—again Wall Street woke up to a rough start Friday morning, with major indexes tumbling as renewed trade tensions and inflation concerns rattled investor confidence. The Dow sank 380 points, or 0.9%, while the S&P 500 slid 1.1%. Tech stocks led the retreat, with the Nasdaq down 1.4% in early trading. Small caps held their ground better, with the Russell 2000 virtually flat. The selloff follows a dramatic escalation in rhetoric from President Trump, who proposed hefty tarif ...