美国经济数据疲软，5月ISM制造业及服务业PMI双双跌至荣枯线以下，5月CPI数据全线低于预期，市 场对美国经济下行担忧加剧，强化了对美联储将降息的预期。降息预期增加了黄金的吸引力，因为黄金 是无息资产，降息会降低持有黄金的机会成本，从而推动金价上涨。 全球央行增持黄金 近年来各国央行持续增持黄金，截至2024年底，黄金约占全球官方储备总额的20%，成为仅次于美元的 全球第二大储备资产。中国人民银行自2024年11月重启增持动作以来，连续7个月增持黄金。央行的持 续增持为黄金价格提供了坚实的支撑。 走势展望：短期内，黄金受中东地缘政治局势和美联储货币政策预期影响，将延续高位震荡态势。若地 缘冲突进一步升级或美联储释放明确降息信号，金价有望继续上涨。中长期来看，全球央行持续增持、 美元信用弱化及去美元化趋势等因素，将支撑黄金价格中枢持续上移，但投资者仍需关注地缘政治局势 缓和、关税政策变化等因素可能带来的价格回调风险。 来源：金融界 截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为798.02元/克，上涨0.64%。 国际黄金价格报3467.1美元/盎司，上涨0.41%。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3 ...

中东火药桶引爆金市，黄金飞升至3440美元后，能否再次迈向3500美元？金十研究员高阳正在直播分 析，点击进入直播间 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - The historical trend indicates that for every 1% decline in the US dollar index, gold prices tend to rise by an average of 0.8% from 2000 to 2023 [2] - The current situation shows that the Federal Reserve has paused interest rate hikes, leading the dollar index to drop from a high of 114 to 105, which supports gold prices [2] - Key indicators to monitor include the actual yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, with a critical point at 0% and the current value at 1.4% [2] Group 2 - A rise of 10 points in the geopolitical risk index correlates with a short-term increase in gold prices by 2-3% [2] - When the US CPI year-on-year exceeds 5%, the annualized return rate for gold reaches 12% [2] - The current global inflation center has shifted to 4%, above the pre-pandemic level of 3% [2] Group 3 - Trigger conditions for significant gold price increases include a US unemployment rate above 4.5% and CPI falling below 3% [4] - If gold prices break through $2100, they could potentially reach $2300 [4] - Gold mining stocks are expected to benefit significantly, with potential price increases up to twice that of gold prices due to leverage effects [4] Group 4 - The historical reference from the 1970s stagflation period shows that gold prices increased by 12 times [4] - Investment strategies recommended include increasing holdings in gold ETFs (like GLD) and physical gold bars [4] - The global central banks' aggressive interest rate hikes could lead to a surge in actual interest rates [4] Group 5 - The formula for gold allocation is based on the geopolitical risk index and inflation rate, indicating a calculated approach to investment [6] - Gold is viewed as a "ballast" during turbulent times, with expectations for it to potentially break historical highs in 2024 due to multiple driving factors [6] - The essence of gold allocation is seen as purchasing "insurance" rather than seeking excess returns [7] Group 6 - The average premium for Shanghai gold in 2023 was $7 per ounce, peaking at $35 per ounce [7] - The strategy includes buying physical gold domestically and hedging with overseas futures [7] - The potential approval of Bitcoin ETFs could divert 20% of safe-haven funds away from gold [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, slightly better than the market expectation of 130,000 [2] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, consistent with market expectations and previous values [2] - Average hourly wages increased by 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 3.8% and the expected 3.7%, indicating a resilient job market [2] Group 2 - Global geopolitical tensions have eased somewhat, with reduced likelihood of escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict as both sides show willingness to negotiate [3] - In the Middle East, there are positive signals regarding a potential permanent ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, and a revival of the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal [3] - The market has developed a degree of immunity to geopolitical conflicts, which has diminished the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 3 - Tariff issues remain a key factor influencing gold price movements, with significant progress made in U.S.-China tariff negotiations [4] - The initiation of a second round of talks between U.S. and Chinese leaders indicates that the most severe phase of the trade war may be over [4] - The impact of tariff factors on the gold market is gradually weakening, suggesting a potential "tail-end" market phase for gold [4] Group 4 - The U.S. dollar is expected to depreciate due to rising domestic debt and the loss of dollar credibility from tariff policies, establishing a solid foundation for a long-term bull market in gold [5] - In the short term, while geopolitical tensions are entering a negotiation phase, there is a lack of upward momentum for gold prices, and investors should be cautious of potential price corrections [5] - Technically, gold prices are expected to maintain a range adjustment between $3,200 and $3,400 in June, with a prevailing bullish trend [5]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily influenced by the relationship between China and the U.S., as well as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [4]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The recent improvement in U.S.-China relations, indicated by the June 5 phone call between the leaders, suggests a potential easing of trade tensions, which could stabilize global markets and reduce the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - The Russia-Ukraine conflict, while currently limited, could lead to increased demand for gold if the situation escalates. However, the current restraint from both sides indicates limited immediate impact on gold prices [4]. Group 2: Current and Future Price Predictions - Current gold prices are approximately 830 yuan per gram, which is considered a high point [6]. - It is anticipated that gold prices may fluctuate between 750 and 780 yuan per gram in the short term, with a potential drop to around 680 yuan if substantial progress is made in U.S.-China relations [7]. - The likelihood of gold prices falling below 650 yuan is minimal due to the absence of significant interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [7]. Group 3: Long-term Considerations - Long-term gold price trends will be influenced by global inflation, changes in monetary policy, and fiscal policies across countries, leading to potential volatility [7]. - While gold can be a part of an investment strategy, it is advised to diversify investments rather than concentrating solely on gold due to inherent market risks [9].

6月9日国内金价快报：国内品牌金店金价在周末出现连跌，大部分金店金价已经跌下千元大关。周生生黄金今日暂报1001 元/克，对比昨日微跌2元/克，为最高价金店。上海中国黄金价格继续不变，报价981元/克，仍是最低价金店。今日金店黄金 价差20元/克，价差小了很多。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年6月9日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 996 | 元/克 | 3 | 跌 | | 六福黄金价格 | 998 | 元/克 | 7 | 版 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 998 | 元/克 | 7 | 駅 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 985 | 元/克 | 0 | ने | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 998 | 元/克 | 7 | 跌 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1000 | 元/克 | 6 | ग | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 998 | 元/克 | 7 | 品 | | 周生生黄金价格 | 1001 | 元/克 | 2 | 品 | | 菜百黄金 ...

Group 1 - The US non-farm payrolls for May exceeded expectations, leading to a stronger dollar and a decline in gold prices [1] - Chinese central bank's gold reserves increased to 73.83 million ounces by the end of May, marking the seventh consecutive month of gold accumulation [1] - The World Gold Council (WGC) maintains a bullish outlook on gold, citing potential price increases due to inflation eroding real yields and economic slowdown impacting equities and cyclical commodities [1] Group 2 - Despite a slowdown in the US economy, non-farm employment and unemployment rates remain stable, indicating that a recession has not yet occurred [2] - The pressure on the dollar is easing, but geopolitical factors and a weak dollar may still lead to a challenging environment for gold prices [2] - The recent slight pullback in gold prices is influenced by tariff uncertainties, but the overall price trend is expected to rise [1][2]

一、非农摘要——总数据分析 美国劳工部6月6日公布的5月非农就业数据显示，新增就业人数13.9万人，略高于市场预期的13万人，但较4月修正后的14.7万人有所放缓。失业率连续第三 个月稳定在4.2%，符合预期。薪资增速超预期，平均时薪同比增长3.9%，环比上升0.4%，显示劳动力成本压力仍存。 | | 近期数据 前次数据 最高 最低 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 失业率 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 14.9 2.5 | % | | 非农就业数据 | 139 | 147 | 4631 | -20471 千 | 从行业结构看，医疗保健、休闲酒店业贡献了主要新增岗位（12.6万个），而制造业和零售业分别减少8000和6500个职位，反映出贸易政策不确定性对实体 经济的冲击。值得注意的是，3月和4月非农数据被大幅下修，合计减少9.5万人，抵消了5月数据的积极面，显示就业市场动能边际减弱。整体而言，就业市 场仍具韧性，但增速放缓和行业分化加剧了市场对经济前景的担忧。 二、小非农ADP数据公布后，对大非农的行情影响 5月ADP私营部门就业仅增3.7万人，为两年多来最低 ...

Group 1 - As of the end of May 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $328.53 billion, an increase of $3.6 billion from the end of April, marking a 0.11% rise and a continuous growth since the beginning of 2025 [1] - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the impact of major economies' policies and growth prospects, with the dollar index experiencing slight fluctuations and global financial asset prices showing mixed trends [1] - The current level of foreign exchange reserves is considered moderately sufficient, providing a buffer against external shocks, with expectations for stability in the short term [1] Group 2 - As of the end of May 2025, the central bank's gold reserves stood at 7.383 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 tons), with a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces, marking seven consecutive months of accumulation [3] - The total increase in gold reserves amounts to 1.03 million ounces, with an estimated cumulative increase value of approximately $341 million (around 2.45 billion yuan) based on the latest gold prices, although the pace of increase has slowed in May [3] - The central bank's strategy to increase gold reserves is seen as a long-term direction to enhance the credibility of the sovereign currency and facilitate the internationalization of the renminbi [3]

晚间非农重磅来袭！市场预期如何解读，黄金能否重回3400关口？立即观看超V推荐官Jason的讲解，直 播间可领取超V限时优惠>>> 相关链接 ...