Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily influenced by developments in US-EU trade agreements, Federal Reserve dynamics, and geopolitical situations, leading to a bearish outlook in the short term while maintaining a strong long-term perspective on gold prices due to central bank purchases. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - US-EU Trade Agreement Progress: The announcement of a trade agreement between the US and EU has reduced market risk aversion, causing spot gold to open significantly lower by $18, reaching a near one-month low [3]. - Federal Reserve Dynamics: The July meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve suggest a potential rate cut of only 25 basis points in September, which is below the market's expectation of 50 basis points, leading to a strengthening of the dollar and a decrease in gold demand [3]. - Geopolitical Situations: A temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has led to a rapid decline in geopolitical premiums, with a $15 drop in gold prices. Ongoing tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East continue to affect market sentiment [3]. Group 2: Gold Price Outlook - Short-term Outlook: Gold prices are expected to remain weak with support levels at $3300 - $3315 and resistance levels at $3350 - $3370. A break below key support could lead to further declines, while a breakout above resistance may allow for a rebound [4]. - Long-term Perspective: The logic supporting gold prices remains robust due to ongoing purchases by global central banks, although attention must be paid to changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy, trade dynamics, and geopolitical risks [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices indicate a return to a range-bound trading environment, with significant resistance and support levels to monitor for potential price movements [1][3]. Price Movements - After a steady increase earlier in the week, gold prices experienced a sharp decline, falling below key support levels, which disrupted the overall market rhythm [1]. - The price tested the 3386-3353 range, with a notable drop to the 3353 level, indicating a potential downward shift if this support is breached [1][3]. Key Levels to Watch - The critical support level to observe is 3353-3351; a failure to hold this range could lead to a further decline of approximately $20 [1][3]. - Conversely, if prices break above the early morning high of 3373-3374, there could be an upward shift of $20 [1]. Technical Indicators - The daily chart shows a pattern of consecutive gains followed by losses, with the life line at 3346 being pivotal for determining future price movements [3]. - The four-hour chart indicates a downward pressure, with the life line at 3390-3392 acting as a key dividing line between bullish and bearish trends [3]. Market Sentiment - The market is currently in a state of indecision, with the price oscillating around the 3353 level, suggesting a potential buildup of momentum for either direction [3]. - The purple channel's mid-point serves as a critical switching point, with the lower boundary facing its fourth test, indicating a heightened risk of a breakdown [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold is experiencing significant resistance at the $3360 level, which may limit short-term rebound potential [1] - There is a substantial amount of short orders at $3360, suggesting downward pressure on gold prices, with the strongest resistance level identified at $3363.45 [1] - Despite the prevailing bearish sentiment, there is a slight increase in bullish sentiment after consecutive days of decline, which may help to limit further downside, with a key support level at $3345.69 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the spot gold price has broken below the range of $3359-62, leading to the formation of a new short accumulation zone, which is currently a major resistance level [1]. Group 2 - The real-time tracking of the latest long and short transaction changes is emphasized, suggesting a dynamic market environment for spot gold [1].

Core Insights - China's gold production in the first half of 2025 was 179.083 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.31%, while gold consumption was 505.205 tons, down 3.54% year-on-year [4][5] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures in the U.S., with the London spot gold price rising by 24.31% since the beginning of the year [4][5] - Despite high gold prices suppressing jewelry consumption, demand for gold bars and coins has surged, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards investment [5][6] Gold Production and Consumption - In the first half of 2025, gold production included 139.413 tons from mining and 39.670 tons from by-products, with total production reaching 252.761 tons, a slight increase of 0.44% year-on-year [3][4] - The decline in gold consumption is primarily due to a 26% drop in jewelry demand, while gold bars and coins saw a 23.69% increase [5][6] Market Trends and Investment - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total scale of gold ETFs and related funds reached 260.337 billion yuan, marking a 49.73% increase quarter-on-quarter [6][7] - The average return for gold funds in the first half of 2025 was 23.01%, with the highest return recorded at 24.14% [7] - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves is expected to support long-term price increases, despite short-term uncertainties due to tariff policies [8]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are likely to remain high or continue to rise in the future, with a low probability of significant short-term declines, but potential risks such as persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions should be monitored [1]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Gold Prices - Central banks have been on a gold-buying spree, with net purchases exceeding 1,000 tons annually for three consecutive years, aimed at diversifying foreign reserves and reducing dependence on the US dollar [5]. - China, as the largest identifiable buyer, has increased its gold holdings for eight consecutive months as of 2025, with some central bank purchases remaining undisclosed, providing implicit support [5]. - Geopolitical risks, including the Middle East situation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Historical trends indicate that gold prices tend to rise rapidly during escalations in geopolitical conflicts, with limited pullbacks [5]. - Investment demand is recovering, with significant net inflows into gold ETFs in Q1 2025, suggesting renewed interest from Western institutions and individual investors [5]. - Strong physical gold demand in China saw a nearly 30% increase in Q1 2025, driven by its investment attributes [5]. - Supply growth is slow, with mining output struggling to increase and rising costs, while old gold recycling has slightly decreased year-on-year in Q1 2025 [5]. Group 2: Future Price Scenarios - Optimistic Scenario: Gold prices may continue to rise due to factors such as expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, ongoing central bank purchases, and prolonged geopolitical conflicts [5]. - Target price: Goldman Sachs predicts gold could reach $4,000 per ounce (approximately 930 yuan per gram) by mid-2026, nearing the 1,000 yuan per gram target [5]. - Neutral Scenario: Gold prices may experience high-level fluctuations driven by persistent inflation pressures, high interest rates, and stable investment demand without significant growth [5]. - Price range: International gold prices may fluctuate between $3,000 and $3,500 per ounce (approximately 700-820 yuan per gram) [5]. Group 3: Potential Downside Risks - Persistent inflation above expectations could lead the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts or even raise rates, diminishing gold's attractiveness [5]. - A significant reduction in geopolitical tensions could weaken safe-haven demand, potentially leading to a price pullback [5]. - A strengthening US dollar due to better-than-expected economic recovery in the US or recession in other regions could pressure gold prices [5]. - A slowdown in central bank gold purchases or reductions in holdings by some countries could undermine market confidence [5]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Long-term allocation: Gold is recommended as a part of an asset portfolio, with a suggested allocation of 5%-15% [5]. - Short-term trading: Investors should monitor key events related to geopolitical risks, Federal Reserve policies, and inflation data to adjust positions flexibly [5].

Core Insights - Gold prices faced rejection at the critical level of $3440, leading to a pullback [1] - The market sentiment is influenced by optimism surrounding US trade agreements and strong earnings from US tech companies [2][3] - The upcoming PMI data from the US and EU is expected to impact market expectations regarding monetary policy adjustments by the Fed and ECB [4][5] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Influences - The dollar is weakening due to positive market sentiment from US trade agreements and strong earnings reports, particularly from Alphabet [2][3] - Investors are optimistic about trade agreements between the US and Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, as well as potential agreements with the EU [3] - The market is closely monitoring the ongoing disputes between President Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell [6] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - After being rejected near the $3440 resistance, gold prices are testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $3377 [10] - For a sustained upward trend, gold needs to break above the $3440 resistance, targeting the June 16 high of $3453 [11] - If sellers maintain pressure, gold could fall below the support level at $3377, with further support around $3340 [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the international gold price is expected to fluctuate between $3,150 and $3,500 per ounce in the short term [1][2] - Recent gold market activity shows London gold fluctuating between $3,250 and $3,450 per ounce, influenced by U.S. tariff agreements with multiple countries [1] - The U.S. economy remains resilient with inflation and retail sales data exceeding expectations, leading to market speculation that interest rates may not decrease in July [1] Group 2 - High gold prices are suppressing physical gold consumption and investment enthusiasm, with U.S. Mint gold coin sales dropping from 64,000 ounces in January to only 7,500 ounces in May [2] - Central banks continue to purchase gold, with China's central bank increasing its reserves by 7 tons in June, which supports long-term gold prices [2] - Despite a recent decline in gold ETF inflows, global ETF holdings remain significantly below historical highs, indicating potential for renewed investment if gold prices continue to rise [2]

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特朗普宣布协议后不久，日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽良生发文，对"所有相关人员表示由衷感谢"，并附 上"任务完成"的标签。日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正表示，"我们保护了需要保护的东西，我们能够 达成对两国都有利的协议。" 日本首相石破茂称，与美国就向美方日本征收15%的关税达成一致。日美双方就通过日本企业在半导 体、钢铁、造船、能源、汽车等领域的投资，加强与美方供应链合作、保障经济安全，达成一致。石破 茂表示，在日本现行的大米"最低准入制度"下，增加从美国进口大米的比例。此举不会牺牲日本农业。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 摘要今日周三（7月23日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3421.86美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报 3423.40美元/盎司，跌幅0.23%，最高上探3438.54美元/盎司，最低触及3421.39美元/盎司。目前来看， 伦敦金短线偏向看跌走势。 今日周三（7月23日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3421.86美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报3423.40美 元/盎司，跌幅0.23%，最高上探3438.54美元/盎司，最低触及3421.39美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线 偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 上午 ...