对于美国普通家庭来说，消费者信心指数已经跌至历史最低点，为了规避关税带来的涨价，消费者在关税实施前便纷纷提前购买商品，无疑透支 了未来的消费力。同时，旅游业，特别是国际旅行，也开始出现放缓迹象。 Apollo：2025年夏季可能进入经济衰退 近日，Apollo首席经济学家Torsten Sløk团队用图表展示了当下美国消费者和企业是如何应对关税的。 根据Apollo的图表，关税对美国企业的影响已然显现。新订单正在下降，资本支出计划正在下降，在关税生效之前库存正在上升，公司正在下调 盈利预期。 Apollo分析了从2025年4月到夏季的经济衰退过程。由于关税调整和运输时间延长等因素，导致供应链中断，进而影响经济活动，最终，2025年夏 季可能进入经济衰退。具体看： 4月2日： 5月初到5月中旬： 5月中旬到5月下旬： 5月底到6月初： 关税导致自2020年以来，标普500指数公司对未来12个月每股收益（EPS）预期实现最大幅度的下降： 美国宣布对等关税； 20-40天–集装箱海运时间。 美国港口集装箱到港量骤减； 1-10天--卡车/铁路从港口到城市运输时间。 美国内陆货运量骤减； 市场货架开始清空，企业需要应 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on Japanese consumer companies with optimistic profit growth prospects, including Asics, Pan Pacific International Holdings, Fast Retailing, and Asahi Group [6]. Core Insights - The Japanese consumer confidence index fell for the fourth consecutive month to 34.1 in March, the lowest since March 2023, indicating a decline in consumer sentiment amid rising inflation [2][8]. - Essential consumer goods saw a surge in stockpiling due to anticipated price hikes in April, leading to a significant increase in sales, particularly in beer, which saw a year-on-year increase of over 30% [3][14]. - Discretionary consumption faced a slowdown, with mixed performance among companies; brands like Salia, Uniqlo, and Muji managed to attract consumers despite the overall decline in demand [3][5]. Macro Overview - Inflation in Japan is rising, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by 3.6% year-on-year in March, while core CPI (excluding fresh food) rose by 3.2% [2][10]. - Real wages fell by 1.5% year-on-year in February, reflecting that wage growth is not keeping pace with inflation [2][8]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 4.2% year-on-year in March, marking the highest level since 1980 [12]. Essential Consumption - Retail sales for essential goods increased primarily due to higher average transaction values, with notable growth in companies like PPIH (+5.9%), 7-Eleven (+1.0%), and Aeon (+2.9%) [4][16]. - The stockpiling trend was driven by consumers preparing for upcoming price increases, significantly boosting sales in food and daily necessities [3][14]. Discretionary Consumption - Discretionary spending showed varied performance, with restaurants like Salia and McDonald's increasing prices due to rising raw material costs, leading to year-on-year sales growth of 13.9% and 11.0%, respectively [5][26]. - Department store sales declined for the second consecutive month, with a year-on-year drop of 2.8% in March, influenced by a strong previous year's performance [33][37]. - The duty-free sales sector experienced its first negative growth in 36 months, reflecting a broader trend of reduced spending on high-priced items due to the appreciating yen and economic uncertainties [5][37]. Company Performance - Asahi and Kirin reported significant revenue increases in March, with Asahi's beer sales up 37% and Kirin's up 30%, driven by stockpiling ahead of price hikes [20][23]. - Uniqlo's same-store sales rose by 11.5% in March, benefiting from strong demand for seasonal products and effective marketing strategies [30][35]. - The performance of specialty stores like Muji and Nitori varied, with Muji seeing a 20.5% increase in same-store sales while Nitori experienced an 8.6% decline [35].

Group 1: Consumer Sentiment and Travel Plans - Only 46% of Americans plan to travel this summer, a decrease from 53% last year, indicating a decline in consumer confidence [1][2] - Among those not planning to travel, 65% cite financial reasons, with 68% specifically mentioning high daily living expenses as a concern [2][3] - The percentage of respondents uncertain about their travel plans increased from 18% in 2024 to 23% this year [2] Group 2: Economic Factors Impacting Travel - Concerns over tariffs and potential economic recession are leading to a more cautious approach to summer travel among Americans [1][2] - A report from Bank of America indicates that domestic accommodations, flights, and travel activities are below previous years, reflecting a drop in consumer confidence [1][4] - Low-income households are cutting travel spending more significantly than wealthier families, who may opt for international travel instead [5] Group 3: International Travel Decline - Interest from international travelers, particularly from Canada and Western Europe, is decreasing due to U.S. trade policies and border issues [6][7] - Canadian visitors to the U.S. dropped by 12.5% in February and 18% in March, while visitors from the UK and Germany also saw a decline of approximately 30% [7] Group 4: Airline Industry Response - Airlines like United Airlines and Delta Airlines reported first-quarter earnings that met or exceeded expectations but anticipate a weaker outlook for 2025 due to declining travel demand [10] - United Airlines provided two profit forecasts for the year, one assuming a recession, predicting adjusted earnings per share between $7 and $9 [10] - There has been a reduction in flight schedules due to decreased demand, with bookings for flights originating in Europe and Canada down by 6% and 9% respectively [10]

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瑞士3月消费者信心指数将于十分钟后公布。 ...