Core Viewpoint - The emergence of scams using the concept of "stablecoins" is increasing, particularly in Hong Kong, as the "Stablecoin Regulation" is about to take effect [1][7]. Group 1: Types of Scams - Three main types of scams have been identified: Ponzi schemes disguised as "high-yield investments," selling worthless digital assets at inflated prices, and cross-border investment traps that deceive investors into transferring funds [1]. - The "JD stablecoin" scam exemplifies these tactics, falsely claiming endorsements from JD and offering high returns, such as over 70% annualized yield [2][5]. Group 2: Scam Mechanisms - The "JD stablecoin" community employs a multi-level marketing strategy, rewarding users for recruiting others, with bonuses based on the number of direct referrals and their performance [3]. - Complex mechanisms for cashing out are introduced, requiring users to pay fees to access their funds, further entangling them in the scam [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Response - Financial regulatory authorities in multiple regions, including Suzhou and Beijing, have issued warnings about the risks associated with these scams, emphasizing the illegal nature of such activities [1][7]. - The People's Bank of China has previously stated that virtual currency-related activities are illegal, and any unauthorized fundraising is strictly prohibited [8]. Group 4: Public Awareness and Education - Warnings highlight the characteristics of these scams, such as lack of financial licenses, misleading concepts, false promises of guaranteed returns, and reliance on new investments to sustain operations [8]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has noted an increase in scams related to digital assets and stablecoins, urging the public to be cautious [8].

Group 1 - Stablecoins are rapidly moving from the periphery of the crypto industry to the center of the global financial stage, with significant developments such as Circle's successful IPO and the implementation of stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong [1][9][10] - Major companies like Ant Group and JD.com are lobbying to issue RMB-pegged stablecoins, aiming to diversify their revenue sources and enhance China's international currency status [2][10] - The market for stablecoins is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting it could reach $2 trillion by 2028, driven by increasing demand for tokenized assets and financial instruments [13][15] Group 2 - Financial institutions and tech giants are investing heavily in stablecoin infrastructure, with Stripe acquiring Bridge.xyz for $1.1 billion, indicating a strong belief in the market's potential [3][4] - Companies like Amazon and PayPal are exploring their own stablecoin initiatives, further highlighting the competitive landscape and the potential for substantial profits [4][6][7] - Banks are also entering the stablecoin market, with institutions like ANZ and Citibank planning to launch their own stablecoins, reflecting a broader trend of traditional finance embracing digital assets [8][10] Group 3 - Hong Kong is positioning itself as a leader in the Web 3.0 space, with the passage of the Stablecoin Regulation Act and a surge in applications from companies seeking licenses [9][10][12] - The introduction of a regulatory framework in Hong Kong is expected to solidify its status as an international financial center, with over 50 companies anticipated to apply for licenses [10][12] - The establishment of a "sandbox" for stablecoin testing in Hong Kong aims to foster innovation while ensuring compliance, which is crucial for the development of a secure and transparent stablecoin market [12] Group 4 - The speed and liquidity of stablecoin transactions are seen as major advantages, particularly in cross-border payments and B2B transactions, where they can significantly enhance efficiency [17][20] - The growing acceptance of stablecoins among financial institutions is evident, with a shift in focus from pilot projects to full-scale implementation, as confidence in the technology increases [20][21] - The demand for tokenized mutual funds and ETFs is expected to rise, with estimates suggesting a market value of $400 billion by 2030, indicating a shift towards blockchain-based financial products [13][15]

（二）券商最新研判 （一）重磅消息 据新华社报道，国务院总理7月26日在上海出席2025世界人工智能大会暨人工智能全球治理高级别会议 开幕式并致辞。围绕如何把握人工智能公共产品属性、推进人工智能发展和治理，提出三点建议。一是 更加注重普及普惠，充分用好人工智能发展的已有成果。二是更加注重创新合作，力求更多突破性的人 工智能科技硕果。三是更加注重共同治理，确保人工智能在造福人类上最终修成正果。 信达证券：当下市场具备政策和流动性驱动牛市的条件 牛市重要的驱动力量之一是股市政策驱动股权融资减少。2023年下半年以来，随着股权融资规模的下 降，股市的供需结构也在扭转。当下市场也具备政策和流动性驱动牛市的条件。 战略上，2025年下半年可能会出现类似2014年下半年的突破，战术上要等待经济或政策的催化。估值位 置偏低、上市公司盈利偏弱、政策基调积极、各类主题机会活跃，这些很像2013年~2014年年中和2019 年的震荡市，最终的结局大概率是更全面的牛市。战术层面，之前突破的临界点均有政策和经济高频数 据催化，目前需要等待观察1~2个月。 行业配置方面，稳健策略包括非银、银行，指数权重大且机构低配。需要轮动的策略上， ...

7月以来，多地金融管理部门、行业自律组织等接连发布风险警示公告提示，随着稳定币概念的升温， 一些不法分子以稳定币为噱头进行的非法活动有所冒头，其潜在风险值得高度警惕。 要避免上当受骗，首先需要搞明白什么是稳定币。稳定币是一种锚定真实资产的数字货币，其价值通常 与某种法定货币、商品或其他资产挂钩。不少投资者表示困惑："既然都是加密货币，那稳定币跟之前 很火的比特币一样吗？"答案是否定的。 上海金融与发展实验室主任曾刚介绍，二者的主要区别体现在价值锚定机制、价格波动性、应用场景等 方面。其一，价值锚定机制不同。稳定币通常与法定货币或其他稳定资产挂钩，1枚稳定币的价值等同 于1单位锚定资产，从而保持价格稳定；而比特币属于"原生加密货币"，其价值完全取决于市场供需， 没有任何实物或法币资产作为支撑，因此波动性极大。 其二，价格波动性区别明显。稳定币旨在抑制波动，适合作为价值存储和交易媒介；比特币则追求"去 中心化的数字黄金"定位，价格受市场情绪、宏观经济和政策消息驱动，涨跌幅度剧烈。此外，应用场 景亦有差异。稳定币常用于数字资产交易的计价、资金结算、跨境转账等场景；比特币则被视为长期投 资或价值储备工具。 中国邮政储 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese government proposed the establishment of a World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization to promote multilateralism and address the digital divide [2] - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference emphasized the need for accelerated digital infrastructure development, including clean power and AI standards [3] - Major foreign financial institutions have raised their economic growth forecasts for China following the release of Q2 economic data, with increases ranging from 0.3% to 0.6% [4] Group 2 - The establishment of the China Capital Market Society marks the creation of an official think tank for the capital market, with significant figures from the China Securities Regulatory Commission involved [5] - The stablecoin sector in Hong Kong is gaining attention, with analysts suggesting that clearer regulatory frameworks will drive growth and support the internationalization of the Renminbi [5] - A well-known private equity firm,淡水泉投资, is optimistic about structural investment opportunities in high-quality Chinese assets and the globalization of advantageous industries [5] Group 3 - The World Artificial Intelligence Conference showcased advancements in smart connected vehicles and AI technologies from companies like Alibaba and Baidu [6] - A new action plan for autonomous driving in Shanghai aims for significant milestones by 2027, including L4-level passenger transport and extensive road coverage [6] - The National Cyberspace Administration reported that 474 large models have completed registration, with over 30 billion registered users for these applications [6] Group 4 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is prepared to intervene in the currency market if the Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate with the US dollar falls to 7.85 [8] - 华熙生物 addressed false information circulating on social media regarding the company, clarifying the background of the individual responsible for the misinformation [9] - 京东健康 is upgrading its AI medical model system to enhance the coverage of its internet hospital services [9] Group 5 - As of June 30, the total net asset value of public funds in China reached a record high of 34.39 trillion yuan, with bond funds leading the growth [14] - The recent surge in industrial commodity futures prices has prompted exchanges to implement risk control measures to manage trading activity [15]

Core Viewpoint - Stablecoins serve as a bridge between decentralized cryptocurrencies and fiat currencies, aiming to reduce volatility and enhance payment efficiency, but they exhibit centralized characteristics due to their reliance on fiat and crypto asset collateral [2]. Group 1: Nature of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies pegged to fiat currencies or assets, designed to mitigate market volatility and improve payment efficiency [2]. - The issuance of stablecoins requires collateral in the form of fiat and crypto assets, reflecting a centralized nature despite their decentralized branding [2]. - The primary profit model for stablecoin issuers involves holding user deposits without paying interest while investing the collateral in various assets [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - USDT and USDC dominate the stablecoin market, accounting for approximately 90% of trading volume and 80% of market capitalization, indicating a highly concentrated market [2]. - Tether and Circle, the issuers of USDT and USDC respectively, employ different investment strategies, with Tether holding about 80% in government bonds and cash, while Circle focuses on safer but lower-yielding assets [2]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework - The regulatory frameworks in the US, EU, and Hong Kong share a common structure but differ in regulatory targets and reserve asset management [3]. - The US GENIUS Act specifies that payment stablecoins must be backed by 100% cash or short-term US Treasury securities, with a diverse regulatory oversight [3]. - The EU MiCA Act aims for broader regulation of crypto assets, focusing on risk prevention and maintaining financial stability within the Eurozone [3]. - Hong Kong's Stablecoin Ordinance emphasizes strict approval processes and high reserve coverage, balancing financial innovation with stability [3]. Group 4: Macro Implications - Dollar-pegged stablecoins expand the functionality and usage scenarios of the US dollar, reinforcing its position in the international monetary system [5]. - While stablecoins tied to US debt may alleviate some government debt pressures, they do not fundamentally resolve the US's long-term fiscal challenges [5]. - The growth of stablecoins could destabilize the short-term US Treasury market and weaken macroeconomic policy effectiveness [5]. Group 5: Liquidity Management Challenges - Stablecoins enhance the velocity of money, similar to fiat currencies, but introduce new challenges for central banks in managing liquidity [5]. - Potential issues include the creation of additional liquidity through lower reserve ratios and the emergence of a "shadow" banking system dominated by stablecoins [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the computer industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" investment rating for the sector [6][7]. Core Insights - The computer industry is experiencing a low holding ratio, with public fund allocation at 2.6% in Q2 2025, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous quarter, ranking 13th among 30 primary industries [8][9]. - AI remains the main theme for the computer sector throughout 2025, supported by three key factors: the introduction of domestic super-node solutions improving cost-performance, the launch of several foundational large models driving AI applications into commercialization, and continuous innovations across various fields such as stablecoins and 3D printing [9][11]. - The report highlights significant company updates, particularly the official upgrade of iFLYTEK's reasoning large model X1, which enhances capabilities in multiple languages and applications [38][43]. Summary by Sections Investment Allocation - In Q2 2025, the computer industry's public fund allocation decreased to 2.6%, marking a historical low since 2010, with a configuration coefficient of 0.56, down from 0.67 in Q1 2025 [8][9]. - The report suggests increasing positions in Hong Kong-listed computer stocks such as Kingdee and Meitu [6][7]. AI Development - The report identifies three main drivers for the future performance of the computer industry: 1. The launch of domestic super-node solutions that enhance cost-performance and reduce the gap with overseas solutions [9][10]. 2. The introduction of multiple foundational large models that facilitate the commercialization of AI applications [10][11]. 3. Ongoing innovations in various sectors, including stablecoins and 3D printing, which are expected to gain traction [11][12]. Valuation Metrics - As of July 22, 2025, the computer industry’s PE (TTM) stands at 85.4x, placing it in the 93.40% historical percentile, while the PS (TTM) is at 3.4x, in the 48.90% historical percentile [24][25]. - The report notes that current valuation levels exceed those of 2020 and 2023, reflecting optimistic market expectations regarding potential profitability [24][25]. Company Updates - iFLYTEK's reasoning large model X1 has been officially upgraded, showcasing improvements in comprehensive capabilities and multi-language support, with applications in education, healthcare, and enterprise solutions [38][43]. - The report emphasizes the growth trend in AI revenue for iFLYTEK, with significant increases in both consumer and enterprise AI solutions [44]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the varying rhythms of different technology sectors, influenced by the certainty and traceability of new technologies, with AI applications expected to follow a similar trajectory to cloud computing [36][37]. - The report anticipates a rapid increase in market capitalization for AI-related companies as performance metrics begin to materialize in the latter half of 2025 [37][38].

Core Viewpoint - The company is optimistic about its potential in the cross-border payment sector, highlighting its merchant accumulation, brand recognition, and market share growth potential, with a target price of HKD 17.3, indicating a potential upside of 40% from the latest closing price [1] Group 1: Business Overview - The company's digital payment business is divided into global payments, primarily serving cross-border e-commerce sellers, and domestic payments, catering to enterprise clients [1] - For 2024, the company's total payment volume (TPV) is projected to reach CNY 3.3 trillion, with global and domestic payment TPV expected to be CNY 281.5 billion and CNY 3.0 trillion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 63% and 65% [1] - Total revenue for 2024 is forecasted at CNY 1.31 billion, a 28% increase year-on-year, with global payments contributing 70% to digital payment revenue [1] Group 2: Market Position and Competition - The cross-border payment service market is relatively fragmented, with key competitors including Payoneer, PingPong, and others [1] - The company's global payment TPV is expected to account for 13.1% of China's cross-border e-commerce export value in 2024, up from 9.4% in 2023 [1] Group 3: Future Opportunities - The company has obtained a Virtual Asset Trading Platform (VATP) license, positioning it for future opportunities in virtual asset trading and stablecoin issuance [2] - Stablecoins are anticipated to be utilized in cross-border trade for small currency payments and settlements, addressing issues such as long settlement cycles and high fees [2] Group 4: Financial Projections - For 2025, the overall TPV is expected to grow by 27%, with global payments and domestic payments projected to increase by 45% and 25%, respectively [2] - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated to reach CNY 1.63 billion, a 24% year-on-year increase, with a stable gross margin of 52% [2] Group 5: Valuation - The company employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, assigning a target price of HKD 17.3, which includes a valuation of HKD 16.0 from its core business and HKD 1.3 from its equity stake in a connected company [3] - The company is viewed positively due to its growth in TPV, revenue, and profit improvement prospects, alongside innovations in cross-border payment technology [3]

Group 1 - The State Council has deployed measures to gradually promote free preschool education, emphasizing its importance for long-term development and the need for local governments to detail work plans and ensure timely funding allocation [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has outlined seven key tasks for the next phase of reform, including consolidating market stability, deepening the reform of the Growth Enterprise Market, and enhancing regulatory enforcement efficiency [2][4] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance reported that national fiscal revenue reached 11.56 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with tax revenue showing a continuous year-on-year increase for three months [3] - The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange plan to promote a low-version fund pool policy nationwide, establishing a framework for integrated domestic and foreign currency fund pools [3] Group 3 - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange's vice president stated that further reforms of the Growth Enterprise Market will support companies in core technology sectors such as artificial intelligence and integrated circuits [6] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange plans to launch a new platform in 2026 for issuers and their advisors to submit regulatory announcements and communicate confidentially with the exchange [6] Group 4 - The Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Statistics reported that the city's GDP for the first half of the year was 26,222.15 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [5] - The China Insurance Industry Association announced that the current research value for ordinary life insurance products' preset interest rate is 1.99%, with several insurance companies adjusting their new product rates starting in September [10] Group 5 - The Shanghai land auction saw a total transaction amount of 28.957 billion yuan for eight plots, with one plot in Xuhui district breaking the national record for land price at over 200,000 yuan per square meter [11] - The Congo Mining Company chairman stated that the country is seeking to establish a price for cobalt that promotes domestic processing, as Congo accounts for about 75% of global cobalt production [11] Group 6 - The CSRC has simplified the inheritance process for small estates of deceased investors, allowing direct processing for estates under 50,000 yuan without notarization [4] - The CSRC is also revising the Corporate Governance Guidelines for Listed Companies to improve the supervision of directors and senior management [4] Group 7 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell by 1.09% to 25,388.35 points, while southbound funds saw a significant net purchase exceeding 20 billion Hong Kong dollars, totaling over 820 billion Hong Kong dollars for the year [4] - The A-share market experienced a mild adjustment, with the STAR 50 index rising by 2.07%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.33% [4] Group 8 - The China Securities Association released a "white list" of 21 professional institutional investors for offline investment in 2024, including major funds and securities firms [6] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that the IPO of Hengkun New Materials on the STAR Market has been postponed, marking the first IPO project to be delayed this year [6] Group 9 - The U.S. Commerce Secretary stated that TikTok will be banned unless China agrees to give the U.S. more control over the app, to which the Chinese Foreign Ministry reiterated its stance on the issue [3] - The U.S. stock market saw slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.47% and the S&P 500 reaching a new historical high, supported by strong earnings reports [18] Group 10 - The international precious metals futures market saw a general decline, with COMEX gold futures down 1.04% and silver futures down 2.29% [23] - The oil market experienced a drop, with U.S. crude oil futures falling by 1.45% and Brent crude down by 1.11%, primarily due to reduced speculative positions [23]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is warning about the risks of over-speculation in stablecoins as the Stablecoin Regulation comes into effect on August 1, indicating a commitment to a balanced development of stablecoins [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The Stablecoin Regulation, passed on May 21, 2025, aims to create a risk-based regulatory environment that aligns with international standards, enhancing the regulatory framework for virtual asset activities while promoting financial innovation and sustainable development [1][2]. - The regulation follows the principle of "same activity, same risk, same regulation," requiring issuers of fiat-backed stablecoins to obtain licenses and adhere to strict asset management and redemption requirements [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Stablecoins serve as a crucial link between traditional finance and decentralized finance (DeFi), enhancing market efficiency and accelerating the adoption of Web3.0 technologies, which could attract international capital and innovation to Hong Kong [3]. - As of now, the global cryptocurrency market is valued at approximately $3.35 trillion, with stablecoin supply around $250 billion and trading volume projected to exceed $20 trillion in 2024, indicating a significant market presence [3]. Group 3: Internationalization of Currency - The internationalization of currencies is a long-term process influenced by the overall strength of an economy and the development of financial markets, with Hong Kong positioned to leverage its financial market advantages to support the internationalization of other fiat currencies [4].