止损，永远是对的，错了也对！ 死扛，永远是错的，对了也错！ 横批：止损无条件！ 如果没有交易原则，那么，一切技术等于零！ 凌晨美联储年内第三次维持利率不变，美联储主席鲍威尔继续硬钢特朗普，对黄金而言构成利空！不过，美联储利率决议期间，黄金波动有限，主要因为特 朗普重返白宫后开启的全球"关税大战"成了市场的焦点，同时全球地缘局势云波诡谲，使得美联储影响力大打折扣！ 经过昨天欧美盘折腾后，今天先看区间，重点3360区域支撑，上方重点3400区域压制。向下破位，行情进一步走空，关注回撤3325--3300大关；向上突破， 则看涨3420--3440，甚至冲击历史新高！操作上，3360-3400区间内高抛低吸不追单，打破区间则顺势跟进一波！ 白银，窄幅波动，方向跟着黄金；昨天冲高33.3后大跌，接下来继续关注高空，短线32.2-32区域支撑先看反弹！ 昨天央妈降息降准，以应对当前市场不确定性，似乎影响并不大。当前，市场不缺钱，缺的是信心！消费贷款助力经济也就罢了，连养老都需要贷款了，也 是没法说。 基本面上，地缘局势依然是焦点，印巴冲突牵动全球的神经；俄乌和谈难以达成，冲突随时进一步加剧；美伊谈判各有各的底线，也是死 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the third consecutive time, while continuing to reduce its holdings of Treasury and MBS at the current pace [6]. Economic Conditions - The unemployment rate has stabilized, and the labor market remains resilient, but risks of high unemployment and inflation have increased. Economic uncertainty has further risen, although economic activity continues to expand at a "steady pace" despite fluctuations in net exports [7]. Interest Rate Outlook - The current uncertainty requires the Federal Reserve to remain patient, with all members supporting this wait-and-see approach. There is no immediate need to adjust rates, and the Fed can act swiftly if circumstances change [8]. Inflation Outlook - Short-term inflation expectations have risen, while long-term expectations remain aligned with targets. The persistence of inflation will depend on the scale, timing, and expectations surrounding tariffs [9]. Employment Outlook - Wage growth has continued to slow, and the labor market is at or near maximum employment levels. Consideration of the distance and time to bridge any gaps between dual objectives is necessary [10]. Economic Slowdown - There are no signs of economic slowdown in actual data, and the economy remains robust. However, uncertainty is high, and the risks of economic downturn have increased [11]. Tariff Impact - Tariffs have been larger than expected, but no significant economic impact has been observed from tariff data so far. The inflation effects of policies may be temporary, and ongoing trade negotiations could substantially change the situation [12]. Market Reactions - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicates varying probabilities for future interest rate changes, with a notable percentage expecting the Fed to maintain rates or implement a 25 basis point cut [14][15]. Institutional Analysis - Analysts from various institutions suggest that the Federal Reserve is in a wait-and-see mode, with good employment data supporting the current stance. There is a consensus that a more significant rate cut may be necessary if the Fed waits too long [16][19][21].

巴西央行：一致决定通过此次利率决议。 ...

美联储FOMC将于十分钟后公布利率决议。 ...

今日重点关注的财经数据与事件：2025年5月8日 周四 ① 02:00 美联储FOMC公布利率决议 ② 02:30 美联储主席鲍威尔召开新闻发布会 ③ 10:00 国新办举行新闻发布会 ④ 14:00 德国3月季调后工业产出月率 ⑤ 14:00 德国3月季调后贸易帐 ⑥ 14:00 英国4月Halifax季调后房价指数月率 ⑦ 15:00 商务部召开5月第1次例行新闻发布会 ⑧ 19:02 英国央行公布利率决议及货币政策报告 ⑨ 20:30 美国至5月3日当周初请失业金人数 ⑩ 22:00 美国3月批发销售月率 相关链接 ⑪ 22:30 美国至5月2日当周EIA天然气库存 ⑫ 23:00 美国4月纽约联储1年通胀预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global market is awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which will clarify the impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation and interest rate outlooks [1][4][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, with a 99% probability of pausing rate cuts [5][6]. - The next anticipated rate cut is pushed to July, with expectations of two to three cuts by the end of the year [6]. - Market participants are particularly interested in how Fed Chair Powell will address tariff policies and their implications for inflation during the upcoming press conference [6][7]. Group 2: Tariff Negotiations and Market Reactions - Ongoing tariff negotiations are causing fluctuations in the U.S. stock market, with Vice President Pence indicating discussions with the EU to open markets for U.S. goods [2][3]. - The EU is prepared to impose 20% tariffs on nearly €100 billion worth of U.S. goods if negotiations fail [3]. - Major U.S. tech stocks showed mixed performance, with notable declines in Google and Microsoft, while Amazon saw a rise of over 2% [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Concerns about inflation and the labor market are influencing the Fed's decision-making process, with a focus on employment data as a key reference [6][7]. - The relationship between President Trump and Powell is under scrutiny, as Powell aims to maintain the Fed's independence while addressing market concerns [7].

美联储利率决议来袭，黄金震荡走势不变，今晚能否转风向？金十研究员Steven正在直播，点击进入直 播间观看>> 相关链接 ...

美联储5月利率决议在即，预期按兵不动，市场在期待什么？金十研究员高阳GMA行情分析中，点击进 入直播间 相关链接 ...

上天天基金APP搜索【777】领 98 元券包 ，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 积极的预期正在展现！ 今天早上，美股在隔夜大跌之后，期指迎来了大幅拉升行情。与此同时，人民币亦迎来大幅反弹行情，离岸人民币 兑美元一度大涨近200点，并一举突破7.19，比特币也出现了较为明显的反弹行情。 日经225指数开盘涨0.3%，三菱商事、东京电子涨潮1%。 韩国KOSPI指数涨0.8%。 美国财长贝森特在一份声明中表示："我期待进行富有成效的会谈，我们将努力重新平衡国际经济体系，更好地服务 于美国的利益。" 美国贸易代表格里尔办公室也表示，他在日内瓦期间"还将与中华人民共和国的同行会面，讨论贸易问题"。格里尔 说："根据特朗普总统的指示，我正在与各国进行谈判，重新平衡我们的贸易关系，实现互惠，开拓新市场，并保护 美国的经济和国家安全。" 另外的变量 此外，亦有其他的积极变量出现。 从消息面上看，令到海内外市场集体大涨的主要原因有两个：一是何立峰副总理作为中美经贸中方牵头人，将在访 问瑞士期间，与美方牵头人美国财长贝森特举行会谈。市场倾向于认为，这是一个积极的开始；二是国务院新闻办 公室将于今日上午9时举行新闻发 ...

从消息面上看，令海内外市场集体大涨的主要原因有两个：一是何立峰副总理作为中美经贸中方牵头 人，将在访问瑞士期间，与美方牵头人美国财长贝森特举行会谈。市场倾向于认为，这是一个积极的开 始；二是国务院新闻办公室于今日上午9时举行新闻发布会，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、 中国证券监督管理委员会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，并答记者问。市场 对于此次会议有较为积极的预期。所以，昨晚在美股大跌之时，A50和恒指期货表现都非常强劲。 中国人民银行将推出10项政策加大宏观调控强度 中国人民银行行长潘功胜7日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，中国人民银行将加大宏观调控强度，推出10 项政策，进一步实施好适度宽松的货币政策，推动经济高质量发展。 潘功胜介绍，一揽子货币政策措施包括以下10项： 第一，降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元。 第二，完善存款准备金制度，阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率，从目前的5%调 降至0%。 第三，下调政策利率0.1个百分点，即公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率从目前的1.5%调降至1.4%，预计将 带动贷款市场报价利率（LPR） ...