Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.1% as it awaits the outcome of the upcoming elections and assesses the economic impact of global trade disruptions caused by the U.S. [1][4] Group 1: Economic Indicators - February data shows a reduction of over 50,000 jobs in Australia, while inflation has returned to the target range of 2-3%, prompting the RBA to seek more evidence before considering further rate cuts [4] - The market anticipates nearly an 80% probability of a rate cut in May, but full pricing is expected to wait until July [4] - Inflation decline is raising real interest rates in Australia, creating additional resistance at a time when economic support is needed [4] Group 2: Political Context - The Australian Labor Party government recently announced a budget including tax cuts and welfare measures, coinciding with the announcement of elections, raising concerns about potential inflationary pressures due to competitive spending plans from both parties [7] - The upcoming elections are expected to result in a hung parliament, requiring the ruling party to negotiate with smaller parties or independents for a majority [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The RBA's upcoming meeting will be the first under its new structure, with a newly formed nine-member committee [4] - Economists suggest that the RBA will adopt a "hawkish" pause stance, with expectations that the RBA may counter market predictions of a 70 basis point rate cut by the end of the year [7] - The RBA is set to release its semi-annual financial stability assessment report, and the Governor will participate in a public speaking event shortly thereafter [7]

很多对经济不太懂的网友觉得利率是官方定的，官方要加息就加息，想降息就降息，其实这个理解是不对的。无论中美，真正决定利率的是社会整体的经 济活跃程度，假如现在经济活跃，社会上有很多生意都有机会挣到一年8-10%的利润，那一定会有很多人愿意以4-5%的利息借钱，这个时候官方想压利率 都压不住。 先顺着昨晚的说吧，美联储的利率决议没有出现意外，继续维持5.25-5.5%的利率区间不变，这是符合市场预期的，因此并没有给市场造成太大的冲击。 由19名委员投出来的利率点阵图今年的利率预期是5-5.25%，2025年是4-4.25%，2026年是3.25%左右，至于更远的周期分歧就很大了，从2.5到3.5%的都 有。 19名委员里有4个人认为今年不应该降息，7人认为降一次，8人认为应该降两次。这是最新的判断，后续随着经济数据的波动还会动态调整。 今天a股两市成交7500亿，几个指数表现都中规中矩，但中位数下跌0.75%，股民有一定的痛感。 值得一提的是贵州茅台散装飞天茅台的价格击穿了2400，最新已经跌至2320一瓶，可能你们买酒的人觉得一瓶差个百八十块的也不算啥，但除了消费喝茅 台的人之外，这个市场上还有很多人把茅台当作 ...