9月26日 ，A股震荡走低，科技股全线回调，截至收盘，上证指数跌0.65%报3828.11点，深证成指跌 1.76%，创业板指跌2.6%，全天成交2.17万亿元，券商ETF基金(515010)下跌0.36%，成交超5100万元， 其持仓股涨跌互现，湘财股份领涨4.11%，国投资本上涨1.97%，国信证券上涨0.53%；首创证券领跌 1.76%，天风证券下跌1.71%，东方财富下跌1.55%，金融科技ETF华夏（516100）跌2.37%。 8 月，市场日均成交额突破两万亿，市场情绪及交投活跃度持续提升，根据易观千帆数据，8 月证券类 应用活跃人数合计1.73 万亿，环比增长4%，同比增长27.26%，创2025年以来最高。随着资本市场改革 的持续推进、金融政策的不断加码，资本市场回稳向好态势稳固。 银河证券分析指出，国家"稳增长、稳股市"、"提振资本市场"的政策目标仍将持续定调板块未来走向， 流动性适度宽松环境延续、资本市场环境持续优化、投资者信心重塑等多方面因素共同推动证券板块景 气度上行，中长期资金扩容预期进一步增强基本面改善预期。截至2025年9月19日，证券板块PB估值 1.42x，处于2010以来2 ...

截至2025年9月25日 13:05，中证全指证券公司指数上涨0.27%，成分股国金证券上涨3.07%，国盛金控 上涨2.07%，中国银河上涨1.48%，广发证券上涨1.31%，华泰证券上涨1.17%。证券ETF嘉实(562870)红 盘蓄势。 流动性方面，证券ETF嘉实盘中换手1.31%，成交663.50万元。拉长时间看，截至9月24日，证券ETF嘉 实近1年日均成交1711.67万元。 证券ETF嘉实紧密跟踪中证全指证券公司指数，为反映中证全指指数样本中不同行业公司证券的整体表 现，为投资者提供分析工具，将中证全指指数样本按中证行业分类分为11个一级行业、35个二级行业、 90余个三级行业及200余个四级行业，再以进入各一、二、三、四级行业的全部证券作为样本编制指 数，形成中证全指行业指数。 数据显示，截至2025年8月29日，中证全指证券公司指数前十大权重股分别为东方财富、中信证券、国 泰海通、华泰证券、招商证券、广发证券、东方证券、申万宏源、兴业证券、中金公司，前十大权重股 合计占比60.56%。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

乌克兰无人机袭击俄罗斯炼油厂叠加美联储降息预期，国际油价应声上涨。地缘冲突与金融政策共振，改写传统能源安全逻辑，软实力博弈正重塑全球石油 定价体系。邓正红软实力表示，乌克兰无人机袭击俄罗斯炼油厂，并且市场预计美联储本周降息，地缘溢价叠加降息预期给石油软实力注入向上势能，周一 （9月15日）国际油价走高。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油10月期货结算价每桶涨0.61美元至63.30美元，涨幅0.97%；伦敦洲际交易 所布伦特原油11月期货结算价每桶涨0.45美元至67.44美元，涨幅0.67%。美国总统特朗普表示，如果北约国家停止购买俄罗斯石油，他就准备对俄罗斯实施 制裁。俄罗斯官员周日表示，乌克兰发动大规模袭击，至少出动361架无人机瞄准俄罗斯，在西北部巨大的基里希炼油厂引发短暂火灾。 上周国际原油期货涨超1%，因乌克兰加大了对俄罗斯石油基础设施的袭击，包括最大的石油出口终端普里莫尔斯克。普里莫尔斯克的原油装载能力约为每 日100万桶，而基里希炼油厂每日加工约35.5万桶俄罗斯原油，相当于该国总量的6.4%。分析认为，普里莫尔斯克遇袭表明扰乱国际石油市场的意愿日益增 强，这可能给油价带来上行压力 ...

Group 1 - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially launch its full island closure on December 18, 2025, enhancing trade and investment facilitation with global markets and improving the business environment for domestic and international enterprises [1][2] - The tax incentive policies under the Hainan Free Trade Port aim to establish a tax system compatible with high-level free trade ports, focusing on "zero tariffs, low tax rates, simplified tax systems, strong rule of law, and phased implementation" [2] - Hainan Free Trade Port is creating two bases: one for Chinese enterprises to access international markets and another for international companies to enter the Hainan market, fostering international business headquarters and attracting high-level talent [3] Group 2 - The financial policies of Hainan Free Trade Port include multi-functional free trade accounts, cross-border fund concentration operation centers, and financing leasing policies for aircraft and vessels, aimed at facilitating cross-border capital flow [2] - Various economic zones in Hainan, such as Haikou Jiangdong New District and Sanya Yazhou Bay Science and Technology City, are promoting investment opportunities in sectors like air economy, offshore trade, and deep-sea technology [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce is set to release new policies aimed at promoting service exports, focusing on fiscal, financial, regulatory, and international market development measures [1] Fiscal Policy - The government will leverage existing funding channels to enhance support for key areas and projects in service exports - The Service Trade Innovation Development Fund will be utilized to attract more social capital into service trade and digital trade sectors - The process for zero tax rate declaration for service exports will be optimized to improve export tax rebate efficiency [1] Financial Policy - There will be an increase in support for export credit insurance, with a focus on improving the precision of these policies - Financial services will be expanded for small and micro enterprises to enhance the convenience of insurance services [1] Regulatory Facilitation - The regulatory framework for bonded supervision will be improved - Measures will be taken to facilitate personnel exchanges and promote inbound consumption - The convenience of fund settlement for service trade will be enhanced, and there will be encouragement for intellectual property conversion and transaction - The cross-border flow of data will be promoted and standardized, with a focus on developing international data service businesses [1] International Market Development - The role of service trade intermediary organizations will be strengthened to assist enterprises in exploring international markets - Support will be provided for enterprises to participate in overseas exhibitions [1]

1. Report Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 18, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,187.5, down 2.94%. The market sentiment declined after the Dalian Commodity Exchange restricted the daily opening volume of the JM2601 contract. Fundamentally, the mine - end inventory changed from decreasing to increasing, and the clean coal inventory transferred from upstream mines and coal washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and the inventory is moderately high. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On August 18, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,702.0, down 1.56%. The sixth round of price increase has been implemented on the spot side. Fundamentally, the raw material inventory has rebounded. The hot metal output this period is 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons. The hot metal is at a high level, and the coal mine - end inventory is no longer under pressure, with the inventory transferring downstream. The total coking coal inventory generally shows an increase. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide this period is 20 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1,187.50 yuan/ton, down 42.50 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1,702.00 yuan/ton, down 27.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest: 941,070.00 lots, up 51,646.00 lots; J futures contract open interest: 51,445.00 lots, up 234.00 lots [2]. - Net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts: - 118,083.00 lots, down 7,855.00 lots; net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts: - 5,846.00 lots, up 162.00 lots [2]. - JM 1 - 9 month contract spread: 152.50 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan; J 1 - 9 month contract spread: 68.00 yuan/ton, down 8.50 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 0.00; coke warehouse receipts: 820.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Dry Qimantage Mongolian No. 5 raw coal: 996.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 1,720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 147.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 1,520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1,510.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 1,620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1,610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 1,520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis: 18.00 yuan/ton, up 27.50 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1,100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis: 112.50 yuan/ton, up 42.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Clean coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants: 26.40 million tons per day, up 0.40 million tons; clean coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants: 2.97 billion tons per week, up 89 million tons [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants: 0.37%, unchanged; raw coal output: 38.099 billion tons per month, down 4.0084 billion tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports: 3.561 billion tons per month, up 257 million tons; daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines: 187.90 million tons, down 0.40 million tons [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports: 4.4778 billion tons per week, down 152.7 million tons; coke inventory at 18 ports: 2.6971 billion tons per week, down 38.4 million tons [2]. - Total coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 9.7688 billion tons per week, down 110.4 million tons; all - sample coke inventory of independent coking enterprises: 625.1 million tons per week, down 72.2 million tons [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide: 8.058 billion tons per week, down 28.6 million tons; coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills nationwide: 6.098 billion tons per week, down 94.8 million tons [2]. - Available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises: 12.97 days per week, down 0.02 days; available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills: 10.83 days per week, down 0.08 days [2]. - Coking coal imports: 910.84 million tons per month, up 172.10 million tons; coke and semi - coke exports: 89 million tons per month, up 38 million tons [2]. - Coking coal output: 4.06438 billion tons per month, down 5.89 million tons; capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises: 74.34%, up 0.31% [2]. - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants: 20 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton; coke output: 4.186 billion tons per month, up 15.7 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills: 83.57%, down 0.20%; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 90.24%, up 0.17% [2]. - Crude steel output: 7.966 billion tons per month, down 352.40 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - U.S. President Trump stated after meeting with Russian President Putin on the 15th that there is no plan to impose tariffs on China's purchase of Russian oil [2]. - The central bank proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the next stage and focus on promoting a reasonable recovery of prices [2]. - China's coal consumption ratio decreased from 56.8% in 2020 to 53.2% in 2024, while the non - fossil energy consumption ratio increased from 15.9% to 19.8% [2]. - Although future real estate construction will decline significantly, the existing housing stock will be huge. By 2030, the residential buildings over 30 years old will exceed 10 billion square meters, and even if only 10% is renovated annually, it will be 1 billion square meters [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the significant progress in green finance and taxation policies in China, with a total tax revenue from green taxes reaching 2.5 trillion yuan and a reduction in tax and fees amounting to 1.5 trillion yuan from 2021 to June 2023 [1] - The balance of green loans in both domestic and foreign currencies has surpassed 4 trillion yuan, reaching 42.39 trillion yuan, marking a 14.4% increase since the beginning of the year, positioning China as the global leader in this area [1] - The dual-driven approach of fiscal and financial policies has effectively promoted green development, with the government implementing measures such as subsidies and tax incentives to encourage investments in renewable energy and clean technologies [1][2] Group 2 - Financial policies are acting as an "accelerator" to facilitate the transition of funds from high-pollution sectors to environmentally friendly and sustainable industries, with green finance being a key focus in national financial strategies [2] - China has established a comprehensive green finance policy system, leading the world in the development of green credit, bonds, and insurance, which supports the country's economic transition towards sustainability [2] - The integration of fiscal and financial policies is essential for enhancing the effectiveness of green initiatives, with proposed tax reductions and financial incentives for companies engaged in green finance [2][3] Group 3 - The effectiveness of fiscal and financial policies in promoting green initiatives relies on collaboration with industrial, regional, and environmental policies, creating a conducive environment for private capital to engage in green investments [3] - Strengthening environmental legislation and improving information disclosure systems are crucial for protecting investor rights and supporting a comprehensive policy framework for green development [3]

从总基调看，王毅文认为，政策延续了近年来稳健、精准的风格，与经济高质量发展的大背景相匹 配。他进一步强调，一系列重磅政策的出台，对经济发展、稳定市场预期都将起到积极的作用，后续资 本市场有望走出"震荡向上、结构性机会突出"的格局。 华商策略精选灵活配置混合基金经理王毅文表示，本次发布的政策类型丰富，既包含降准降息等总 量政策，也包含定向性的结构性政策，还涉及一系列制度改革。 上证报中国证券网讯(记者赵明超)5月7日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，中国人民银行行长 潘功胜、金融监管总局局长李云泽、中国证监会主席吴清介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关 情况，并答记者问。本次发布会分别就后续增量政策做了详细介绍，重磅金融政策的密集公布引发市场 关注。 （责任编辑：康博） ...

Economic Overview - The political bureau meeting on July 30, 2025, acknowledged the economic growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5%[1] - The meeting highlighted ongoing risks and challenges in the economy, necessitating continued macro policy support and effectiveness[1] Policy Directions - Macro policies are to "continue to exert force and timely increase strength," maintaining the focus on "stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations" as key objectives[1] - The meeting emphasized the need for policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight[1] Demand Expansion - Policies to expand domestic demand will focus on two growth points in service consumption: general consumption and elderly/childcare consumption[1] - For general consumption, service consumption subsidies may replace "old-for-new" subsidies, potentially driving an additional 70 billion yuan in consumption annually, accounting for approximately 0.15% of social retail sales[1] Industrial Policy - The meeting stressed the importance of optimizing market competition order and addressing disorderly competition among enterprises[2] - The approach to capacity reduction will be guided rather than enforced, focusing on market-driven methods to minimize economic shocks[2] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will prioritize structural support rather than broad easing, with a focus on supporting technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade[2] - The potential introduction of policy financial tools is anticipated, with a timeline similar to previous years, aiming to support various sectors including traditional infrastructure and technology[2] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal measures in the first half of the year showed a 3.4% increase in expenditures, indicating a proactive fiscal stance[2] - The actual deficit rate for the first half reached 3.9%, suggesting significant fiscal effort, although further total policy increases may not be necessary unless economic pressures escalate in the latter half[2] Financial Market - The meeting called for enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market to sustain its recovery momentum[2] - This involves institutional innovation and market opening to better allocate resources and support various enterprises[2] Real Estate Policy - While not a primary focus, the meeting underscored the importance of implementing urban renewal and improving the real estate development model[2] - Future policies may include optimizing existing regulations and promoting urban renewal projects to stimulate housing demand[2] Risk Considerations - Risks include potential downturns in the real estate market, trade tensions, and the effectiveness of consumption stimulus measures[2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy showed a moderate recovery in the first half of 2025, achieving a growth rate of 5.3%, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies [1][3]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy has become more aggressive, with the issuance of special government bonds increasing from 1 trillion yuan to 1.3 trillion yuan, and the support for the trade-in program doubling from 150 billion yuan to 300 billion yuan [3]. - New special bonds amounting to 4.4 trillion yuan are expected to focus primarily on real estate acquisition [3]. - The government has maintained a high utilization rate of public fiscal deficits in the first quarter, indicating a continued expansion of fiscal spending [3]. Monetary Policy - Short-term interest rates have been lowered, with market interest rates declining more than benchmark rates since the second half of the first quarter [3]. - A series of financial support policies, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, have been implemented since May 7, which are expected to boost credit expansion and demand [3]. Consumption Sector - The consumption sector has seen a rebound in retail sales growth, driven by the trade-in policy, particularly in automobiles, home appliances, and digital products [4]. Manufacturing Sector - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 6.4% year-on-year, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 10.2% and 9.5%, respectively [5]. - Manufacturing investment is projected to grow by approximately 8.4% in 2025, supported by policies aimed at enhancing new productive forces and equipment upgrades [5]. Future Outlook - The government is expected to implement expansionary policies in the second half of the year to support growth, particularly in weak areas such as real estate, services, and consumption [5]. - There is strong confidence in achieving a GDP growth rate of over 5% for the year, given the positive results from the first half [6].