1. Report Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 18, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,187.5, down 2.94%. The market sentiment declined after the Dalian Commodity Exchange restricted the daily opening volume of the JM2601 contract. Fundamentally, the mine - end inventory changed from decreasing to increasing, and the clean coal inventory transferred from upstream mines and coal washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and the inventory is moderately high. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On August 18, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,702.0, down 1.56%. The sixth round of price increase has been implemented on the spot side. Fundamentally, the raw material inventory has rebounded. The hot metal output this period is 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons. The hot metal is at a high level, and the coal mine - end inventory is no longer under pressure, with the inventory transferring downstream. The total coking coal inventory generally shows an increase. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide this period is 20 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1,187.50 yuan/ton, down 42.50 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1,702.00 yuan/ton, down 27.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest: 941,070.00 lots, up 51,646.00 lots; J futures contract open interest: 51,445.00 lots, up 234.00 lots [2]. - Net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts: - 118,083.00 lots, down 7,855.00 lots; net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts: - 5,846.00 lots, up 162.00 lots [2]. - JM 1 - 9 month contract spread: 152.50 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan; J 1 - 9 month contract spread: 68.00 yuan/ton, down 8.50 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 0.00; coke warehouse receipts: 820.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Dry Qimantage Mongolian No. 5 raw coal: 996.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 1,720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 147.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 1,520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1,510.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 1,620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1,610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 1,520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis: 18.00 yuan/ton, up 27.50 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1,100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis: 112.50 yuan/ton, up 42.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Clean coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants: 26.40 million tons per day, up 0.40 million tons; clean coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants: 2.97 billion tons per week, up 89 million tons [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants: 0.37%, unchanged; raw coal output: 38.099 billion tons per month, down 4.0084 billion tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports: 3.561 billion tons per month, up 257 million tons; daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines: 187.90 million tons, down 0.40 million tons [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports: 4.4778 billion tons per week, down 152.7 million tons; coke inventory at 18 ports: 2.6971 billion tons per week, down 38.4 million tons [2]. - Total coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 9.7688 billion tons per week, down 110.4 million tons; all - sample coke inventory of independent coking enterprises: 625.1 million tons per week, down 72.2 million tons [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide: 8.058 billion tons per week, down 28.6 million tons; coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills nationwide: 6.098 billion tons per week, down 94.8 million tons [2]. - Available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises: 12.97 days per week, down 0.02 days; available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills: 10.83 days per week, down 0.08 days [2]. - Coking coal imports: 910.84 million tons per month, up 172.10 million tons; coke and semi - coke exports: 89 million tons per month, up 38 million tons [2]. - Coking coal output: 4.06438 billion tons per month, down 5.89 million tons; capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises: 74.34%, up 0.31% [2]. - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants: 20 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton; coke output: 4.186 billion tons per month, up 15.7 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills: 83.57%, down 0.20%; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 90.24%, up 0.17% [2]. - Crude steel output: 7.966 billion tons per month, down 352.40 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - U.S. President Trump stated after meeting with Russian President Putin on the 15th that there is no plan to impose tariffs on China's purchase of Russian oil [2]. - The central bank proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the next stage and focus on promoting a reasonable recovery of prices [2]. - China's coal consumption ratio decreased from 56.8% in 2020 to 53.2% in 2024, while the non - fossil energy consumption ratio increased from 15.9% to 19.8% [2]. - Although future real estate construction will decline significantly, the existing housing stock will be huge. By 2030, the residential buildings over 30 years old will exceed 10 billion square meters, and even if only 10% is renovated annually, it will be 1 billion square meters [2].

Economic Overview - The political bureau meeting on July 30, 2025, acknowledged the economic growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5%[1] - The meeting highlighted ongoing risks and challenges in the economy, necessitating continued macro policy support and effectiveness[1] Policy Directions - Macro policies are to "continue to exert force and timely increase strength," maintaining the focus on "stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations" as key objectives[1] - The meeting emphasized the need for policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight[1] Demand Expansion - Policies to expand domestic demand will focus on two growth points in service consumption: general consumption and elderly/childcare consumption[1] - For general consumption, service consumption subsidies may replace "old-for-new" subsidies, potentially driving an additional 70 billion yuan in consumption annually, accounting for approximately 0.15% of social retail sales[1] Industrial Policy - The meeting stressed the importance of optimizing market competition order and addressing disorderly competition among enterprises[2] - The approach to capacity reduction will be guided rather than enforced, focusing on market-driven methods to minimize economic shocks[2] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will prioritize structural support rather than broad easing, with a focus on supporting technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade[2] - The potential introduction of policy financial tools is anticipated, with a timeline similar to previous years, aiming to support various sectors including traditional infrastructure and technology[2] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal measures in the first half of the year showed a 3.4% increase in expenditures, indicating a proactive fiscal stance[2] - The actual deficit rate for the first half reached 3.9%, suggesting significant fiscal effort, although further total policy increases may not be necessary unless economic pressures escalate in the latter half[2] Financial Market - The meeting called for enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market to sustain its recovery momentum[2] - This involves institutional innovation and market opening to better allocate resources and support various enterprises[2] Real Estate Policy - While not a primary focus, the meeting underscored the importance of implementing urban renewal and improving the real estate development model[2] - Future policies may include optimizing existing regulations and promoting urban renewal projects to stimulate housing demand[2] Risk Considerations - Risks include potential downturns in the real estate market, trade tensions, and the effectiveness of consumption stimulus measures[2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy showed a moderate recovery in the first half of 2025, achieving a growth rate of 5.3%, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies [1][3]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy has become more aggressive, with the issuance of special government bonds increasing from 1 trillion yuan to 1.3 trillion yuan, and the support for the trade-in program doubling from 150 billion yuan to 300 billion yuan [3]. - New special bonds amounting to 4.4 trillion yuan are expected to focus primarily on real estate acquisition [3]. - The government has maintained a high utilization rate of public fiscal deficits in the first quarter, indicating a continued expansion of fiscal spending [3]. Monetary Policy - Short-term interest rates have been lowered, with market interest rates declining more than benchmark rates since the second half of the first quarter [3]. - A series of financial support policies, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, have been implemented since May 7, which are expected to boost credit expansion and demand [3]. Consumption Sector - The consumption sector has seen a rebound in retail sales growth, driven by the trade-in policy, particularly in automobiles, home appliances, and digital products [4]. Manufacturing Sector - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 6.4% year-on-year, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 10.2% and 9.5%, respectively [5]. - Manufacturing investment is projected to grow by approximately 8.4% in 2025, supported by policies aimed at enhancing new productive forces and equipment upgrades [5]. Future Outlook - The government is expected to implement expansionary policies in the second half of the year to support growth, particularly in weak areas such as real estate, services, and consumption [5]. - There is strong confidence in achieving a GDP growth rate of over 5% for the year, given the positive results from the first half [6].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported that as of June 2025, the broad money supply (M2) reached 330.29 trillion yuan, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, up by 4.6% [2] - In the first half of 2025, new RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, and the total social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - The PBOC plans to conduct a 14 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [4] Group 2 - China's total goods trade in the first half of 2025 was 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports at 13 trillion yuan (up 7.2%) and imports at 8.79 trillion yuan (down 2.7%) [4] - In June 2025, the monthly trade volume reached 3.85 trillion yuan, marking a 5.2% increase, with exports of 2.34 trillion yuan (up 7.2%) and imports of 1.51 trillion yuan (up 2.3%) [4] Group 3 - China Salt Chemical Corporation reported a 5.76% decrease in revenue for the first half of 2025, totaling 5.998 billion yuan, with a net profit decline of 88.04% to 52.71 million yuan [9] - Qianfang Technology expects a net profit increase of 1125.99% to 1534.65% for the first half of 2025 [11] - Huahong Technology anticipates a net profit growth of 3047.48% to 3721.94% for the same period [12] - Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation projects a net profit increase of 1628.83% to 2315.27% for the first half of 2025 [21]

Career & Personal Development - Speaker initially felt out of place in academic settings due to being introverted [1] - Speaker emphasizes the importance of continuous learning and its enriching impact on life [1][2] - Speaker highlights the significance of adapting to unexpected events in one's career and life [2] - Speaker initially struggled with basic computer skills and faced criticism early in their career [3] - Speaker stresses the importance of challenging oneself and not limiting one's potential [3][4] Economic & Financial Insights - Speaker experienced the economic impact of the bursting of the Japanese asset price bubble in the 1990s [1] - Speaker was involved in operating monetary policy as a member of the Policy Board at the Bank of Japan [1] - Speaker consistently opposed the dominant policy direction of massive monetary easing, advocating for more aggressive measures to combat deflation [2] - Speaker notes that a 5% unemployment rate meant over half of Keio University students struggled to find employment [3] Academic & Learning Philosophy - Speaker emphasizes the importance of asking questions and developing critical thinking skills in university education [3] - Speaker suggests that if one is unsure of what to do, they should focus on achieving top grades in all their university courses [4]

Manufacturing Sector - In June, the manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7, remaining below the expansion threshold of 50[1] - The production and demand indices have risen into the expansion zone, indicating a potential recovery in manufacturing activity[5] - The purchasing volume index showed the largest month-on-month improvement, followed by finished goods inventory and price indices[5] - The new orders index rose to 50.2, up by 0.4 from the previous month, while the new export orders index increased to 47.7, up by 0.2[10] - The price index remains at historical lows, which continues to squeeze future profit margins for companies[5] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI recorded 50.5, with the service sector at 50.1 and the construction sector at 52.8, indicating mixed performance across sectors[12] - The service sector PMI saw a slight decline due to seasonal adjustments post-holiday, but is expected to rebound with the upcoming summer consumption peak[12] - The construction sector PMI showed a recovery, with the business activity index for housing construction rising above 51%, signaling positive changes in housing activity[13] - The investment in construction remains low year-on-year, primarily due to insufficient real estate investment demand[13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the issuance of a work plan by the Guangdong Provincial Government to promote sustained economic improvement and strengthen the domestic circulation [1] - The plan includes the development of specific policy proposals under the "1+5" framework to enhance financial services [1] - It emphasizes the implementation of pilot projects for equity investments by commercial banks' financial asset investment companies and long-term equity investments by insurance funds [1] Group 2 - The plan aims to utilize the newly revised merger loan rules and policies for mergers and acquisitions of listed companies to broaden financing channels for enterprises [1] - It highlights the importance of diversifying financing options to support economic growth in the province [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing large-scale conflict between Israel and Iran has prompted the United States to announce the evacuation of its citizens from Israel [1] Group 1 - On October 18, the U.S. Ambassador to Israel stated that the U.S. Embassy is arranging flights and cruises for the evacuation of American citizens from Israel [2] - The U.S. State Department announced the closure of the U.S. Embassy in Israel and its consulates in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv from October 18 to 20 due to the current situation [2] - On the same day, the British Foreign Office indicated that the conflict between Israel and Iran poses a significant risk, leading to the temporary evacuation of family members of British diplomatic staff in Israel [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views - The short - term view of the stock index is range - bound, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is slightly bullish. Policy - side positive expectations provide strong support, and the latest macro - economic indicators' marginal weakening has increased the expectation of future policy benefits, which forms a bottom support for the stock index. However, there are still uncertainties externally, and the market risk preference is defensive in the short term [1][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term trend is sideways, the medium - term trend is upward, the intraday trend is slightly bullish, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is that policy - side positive expectations provide strong support [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is slightly bullish, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is range - bound. Yesterday, each stock index continued to trade in a narrow range. The central bank announced 8 major financial policies at the Lujiazui Forum, which helps promote the high - quality development of the financial industry and further promotes financial opening - up. The market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, the trading volume of the stock market remains stable, and the marginal weakening of macro - economic indicators has increased the expectation of policy benefits. Externally, there are uncertainties such as the evolution of the tariff war after the suspension period ends in early July and the evolution of the Middle East geopolitical crisis, so the market risk preference is defensive in the short term [4].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China announced eight significant financial policies at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum [1] Group 1: Financial Policies - Establishment of an interbank market transaction reporting database to collect and analyze trading data across various financial sub-markets including bonds, currency, derivatives, gold, and bills [1]